TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean Sea and Global

climateTROPA-UCM are

At UCM:

PhD students: Jorge Lopez Parages, Marta Martin del Rey, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado (at AEMET), Nube Gonzalez Reviriego

(also in USAL)

Post-Doc: Javier Garcia Serrano (now at IC3), Teresa Losada Doval, Irene Polo Sánchez

Permanent: Belen Rodriguez de Fonseca, Elsa Mohino Harris

TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group

http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es

TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group

http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es

TROPA

• Tropical-Climate Variability • Air-Sea interactions• Atmospheric Teleconnections• Climate Change• Earth System Modelling

Variabilidad Climática Global

Rodriguez-Fonseca et al.20091970’s Climate Shift Cambio del estado base ? (low-frecuency variability)

Rodriguez-Fonseca B., I. Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, T. Losada, E. Mohino, C. R. Mechoso and F. Kucharski (2009): Are the Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?. Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 36, L20705, DOI: 10.1029/2009 GL040048, 2009.

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes

Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea

Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo

Temas activos de investigación

Polo et al. 2008

Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, García-Serrano J (2008) Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall. J Clim 21:6457-6475.

SST eMed PCP Sudán-Sahel

Polo et al. 2008

Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2010

Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; S. Janicot, T. Losada, E. Mohino, M. Joly, A. Voldoire, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, C. Caminade, I. Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Chauvin, P. Ruti, S. Gervois, P. Rocou, 2010. Interanual to decadal SST forced responses of the West African Monsoon. Atmos. Sci. Lett. Accepted.

Change in the Global signal of the Mediterranean Pattern

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall

-Negative SLP anomalies over the eastern basin (Raicich et al. 2003)

psi850 wind950

-Weakening of the climatological NE winds (Peyrillé et al. 2007)More northward migration of the WAM-rainbelt

local forcing !! large-scale predictor ??

Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sijikumar S, Ruti ,P, Janicot S (2009) Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979-2006) and climate simulations. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0599-3.

Fontaine et al. 2009.

SST

thermal forcing

MED ChinaN.PacfN.PacfN.AmerN.Atl

geopotential z-lon profile <30N-40N>

baroclinic structure over the MED basin

quasi-barotropic structure anywhere

in the lat band

Z200

U200-climatology

circumglobal propagation-pattern

waveguiding effect of the NAA jet

García-Serrano J, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T (submitted): Large- Scale Atmospheric Response to Eastern Mediterranean Summer SST Anomalies. Clim Dyn.

García-Serrano et al. (submitted)García-Serrano et al. (submitted)

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes

Observaciones

Observaciones y experimentos de sensibilidad evidencian, a partir de la década de los 70, una respuesta atmosférica de gran escala asociada a anomalías de SST en el Mediterráneo oriental .

• Simulaciones

psi200 U200-climatology

WARM-CTL (UCLA-AGCM)

local-baroclinic structure

remote-barotropic pattern

waveguided anomalous circulation

anticyclonic anomalies

over China-North Pacific Europe

García-Serrano et al. (submitted)

MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes

1902-2003 winter interannual patterns (EOF1 ) : Multidecadal natural vs antropogenic modulation

a)

b)

c)

d)

AMO PDO GW

16%

16%

16%

16%

fvar (%)

Impacto de la variabilidad natural multidecadal en los modos interanuales de la precipitación sobre el área Euro-Mediterránea

AMOPDOGW

1950-1970 1979-1999

Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea

Lopez-Parages et al., 2010

López-Parages J, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, (EGU 2010): The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Euro-Mediterranean Region.

EMCA analysis: Atlantic MAM-OND SST (30S-10N, 60W-35E) JAS Mediterranean precipitation (30N-50N, 15W-40E).

1958-1978CRU

1979-2001CRU

1979-2001CMAP

JAS precipitationJAS SSTPrecipitation ECSST EC

Observaciones

Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.

Losada et al. (submitted)

Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo

1979-2001 Observed response to the Tropical AtlanticVariability

precipitation

JAS SST

JAS z200 Anomalous low circulation responsible for the increase of precipitation over central Europe.

Anomalous high circulations responsible for the decrease of precipitation over eastern and western Europe.

Regression of the observed fields onto the observed EMCA SST-EC

The SST pattern shows significant anomalies over the whole tropical basins.

It also shows a significant SST anomalous lobes over

the North Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea.

Losada et al. (submitted)

Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo

Losada et al. (submitted)

Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.

Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo

Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global

TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar

UCM - TROPA

?

FIN

CONCLUSIONS

- Observations and modelling evidences support a large-scale atmospheric response associated with summer eastern-Mediterranean SST anomalies

- Results support the hypothesis of a hemispheric pattern initiated in the Mediterranean basin, pointing out both a local baroclinic response and a barotropic circumglobal circulation

- Local baroclinic response plays an important role in the latitudinal migration of the WAM system

- Global teleconnection extends to the entire Northern Hemisphere, reflecting the waveguide effect of the westerly jet, and having a surface impact on the North Pacific and Europe

References:

Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sivarajan S, Ruti P, Janicot S (2009) Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979-2006) and climate simulations. Clim. Dyn.

García-Serrano J, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I (2009) Large-scale atmospheric response to Mediterranean summer SST anomalies. Submitted to Clim. Dyn.

Large-scale atmospheric response to Eastern Mediterranean summer SST anomalies

Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global

TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar

• Cambio de tendencia actual en la sst del mediterráneo similaral de los 70’s? relación con cambios en la variabilidad multidecadal natural

specific questions (HyMeX UCM-CRC-Ibimet)The work consists in 5 tasks of research which are inter-related at intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales and are defined

as follows:

1 Global climate remote influence on Mediterranean climate variability. (i) Study of the atmospheric remote influences on the MD from Pacific Ocean, such as the well-known oscillations: MJO, ENSO, PDO. (ii) Study of the interactions between MD and both the Atlantic and the Monsoon climate systems with a focus on the dynamical and thermodynamic processes.

2 The Mediterranean influence on the global climate variability. Investigation of the Mediterranean SST variability as a source of heat available to the atmosphere with a possible global response and impacts. This part will partly focus on the impacts of the Mediterranean SST on (i) the West African Monsoon and (ii) the extratropical circulation.

3 Large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional/local atmospheric circulation in the western and central MD. Study of the interactions between Atlantic/Mediterranean weather regimes and (i) intense cylogenesis linked with heavy rainfall, strong winds and storms in the MD and (ii) severe dry-spell, with a focus on the European and Northern African Mediterranean coast.

4 Recent trends in the MD and interactions with global change. Study of recent global trends and Mediterranean changes. This point will focus (i) on recent trends in mean climate conditions, (ii) on trends of the frequency of intense hydro-meteorological events in the MD (intense cylogenesis, heavy rainfall, storms, and dry-spells) and (iii) trends in the frequency of weather regimes leading to these specific events. Investigation of the causes of the change distinguishing global warming and natural low-frequency variability.

5 Analysis of the atmospheric circulation variability in future climate. Investigation of global climate variability from IPCC simulations and interactions with atmospheric circulation in the MD. Impacts on cyclogenesis and dry-spell in the western and central MD.

FURTHER WORK-Observed signal using 1979-2001 period; is this a consequence of the recent climate trends? (natural vs anthropogenic)

-Investigate the asymmetry between positive/negative thermal forcing in the Mediterranean eastern basin over European Region: AMMA Simulations

-Investigate NAO/Mediterranean SST relationship from the WR and AMMA simulations.