TRIM Daily - Trimegah · PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - TRIM DAILY 1 Oct trade surplus of USD1bn,...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Oct trade surplus of USD1bn, higher than USD725mn expectation. Both

exports and imports were down MoM but the encouraging trend is capital

goods import is unchanged MoM. BI will announce benchmark rate today

(usually in the afternoon), expect unchanged at 7.5%. Good trade numbers

should help support JCI today. We published INDF, ICBP, SILO. Maintain

Buys on all three. We upgraded ICBP TP by 10% to 16600. We reduced

INDF’s TP by 21% to 6800. We reduced SILO’s TP by 21% to 12200. We

prefer ICBP to INDF because of ICBP’s more predictable earnings, higher ROE

(23% to INDF’s 13%), and stronger balance sheet.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Nov 17, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 30 points or 0.7 % to 4442 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by misc industry, mining, and agriculture. Total transaction value was Rp3.6tr. IDX recorded RP426bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to strenghtening trend and trade in 4406-4510 range

Technical Market View

Oil prices rose on Monday after strong losses last week, as Friday's deadly attacks in Paris raised geopolitical tensions that some said could threaten global oil supply. Brent 1-mo future rose 9 cents to settle at $44.56 a barrel, after earlier falling to as low as $43.15.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 4,442.2

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Stock Price Rating Reason

SMGR 10800 Buy

SMGR formed a white candle pattern on the peak of its downtrend channel formation. SMGR with trading range at 10550-11200

UNVR 36300 Buy

UNVR remains strong with potential upside in the range of 35500-3700 for today.

UNTR 17700 Buy

UNTR a potential upside today with trading range 17100-18300

SMRA 1435 Spec Buy

MACD indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for SMRA. SMRA today trad-ing range is around 1380-1510

PWON 430 Spec Buy

Spec Buy at level 430 with target price 465 (resistance)

PGAS 2575 Spec Buy

Spec Buy PGAS at level 2550 with target price today at level 2700

Change -0.69%

Transaction Volume (m) 3,647

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 3,557

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,698

Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.7

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,483.0 237.8 1.4

Nasdaq 4,984.6 56.7 1.2

Nikkei 19,393.7 -203 -1.0

ST Times 2,915.7 -9.9 -0.3

FTSE 6,146.4 28.1 0.5

Hang Seng 22,010.8 -385 -1.7

Chg %

USD IDR 13,749 64 0.5

10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.65 0.0 0.2

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.01 0.3

Spread (%) 6.38 0.01 -0.2

EIDO 20.5 0.5 2.5

Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,888) -31 1.1

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

JSMR: Traffic Volume Update

JSMR reported its Oct 2015 traffic volume, and here are some points we like to highlight:

• Overall traffic volume rose 5.39% MoM and 4.04% YoY. If we take off Gempol-Pandaan section, YoY growth

only stood at 3.67%.

• Average daily traffic stood at 3.92mn vehicles in Oct 2015, +1.99% MoM. We note that Oct average daily

traffic is the highest in 2015, inching up from 3.9mn vehicles in August 2015 (rebound post-Lebaran).

• Most prominent growth come from MoM Jagorawi section, while most routes around Jakarta posted some

5% MoM growth, at the growth range of its mature routes. While YoY growth are mostly spurred by new

routes, which posted double digits growth.

• 10M15 traffic volume stood at 1,137mn vehicles, +5.18% YoY, or at 5.03% if we strip off Gempol-Pandaan.

• 10M15 average daily traffic stood at 3.74mn vehicles (+5.18% YoY). We turn more upbeat on JSMR as its

stand-alone Oct volume is 4.81% higher than 10M15 average. Note that overall average traffic is also higher

than 3.67mn vehicles in July 2015, the typical low point of traffic on Lebaran season.

• We retain our BUY call on JSMR, with target price of Rp 7,400. Currently the stock is trading at 22.9x 2015

PE and 19.9x 2016 PE, below its historic mean of 24.9x.

Ruas Cabang Oct Sep MoM Oct YoY 10M15 10M14 YoY Section Branch 2015 2015 (%) 2014 (%) (%) Jagorawi Jagorawi 17,869,016 16,157,735 10.6% 17,612,290 1.5% 167,699,937 166,284,525 0.9%

Jakarta-Cikampek Jakarta-Cikampek 18,904,494 18,181,490 4.0% 18,287,496 3.4% 177,902,640 164,450,875 8.2%

Jakarta-Tangerang Jakarta-Tangerang 11,321,299 10,774,286 5.1% 10,619,089 6.6% 105,669,311 98,634,632 7.1%

Prof. DR. Sedyatmo Cawang-Tomang-

Cengkareng

6,608,673 6,319,097 4.6% 6,730,826 -1.8% 62,836,926 63,129,775 -0.5%

Jakarta Inner Ring Road *)

18,321,164 17,470,826 4.9% 17,974,189 1.9% 172,322,181 170,753,453 0.9%

Padalarang-Cileunyi Purbaleunyi

5,136,969 4,947,626 3.8% 5,326,194 -3.6% 49,675,385 49,611,919 0.1%

Cipularang 531,225 503,689 5.5% 575,347 -7.7% 5,169,222 5,187,545 -0.4%

Surabaya-Gempol Surabaya-Gempol 8,184,201 7,809,920 4.8% 7,369,216 11.1% 72,998,153 68,451,719 6.6%

Semarang Semarang 4,281,850 4,179,934 2.4% 3,957,571 8.2% 41,744,689 40,243,000 3.7%

Belmera Belmera 2,077,982 2,037,575 2.0% 2,169,043 -4.2% 20,588,628 21,012,802 -2.0%

Palikanci Palikanci 2,098,099 2,057,537 2.0% 1,750,933 19.8% 18,584,748 16,432,451 13.1%

JORR Jakarta Outer Ring Road

13,956,135 13,223,453 5.5% 13,703,835 1.8% 130,912,324 124,192,241 5.4%

Ulujami-Pondok Aren

3,880,769 3,672,643 5.7% 3,763,966 3.1% 36,119,337 37,836,214 -4.5%

BORR PT Marga Sarana Jabar

(MSJ) 1,365,702 1,267,059 7.8% 1,236,637 10.4% 12,545,549 11,189,921 12.1%

Surabaya-Mojokerto

PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA)

1,170,205 1,098,582 6.5% 1,078,681 8.5% 10,664,248 9,781,121 9.0%

Semarang-Solo PT. Trans Marga Jateng

(TMJ) 1,530,523 1,513,868 1.1% 1,447,734 5.7% 15,422,574 12,189,438 26.5%

Bali Mandara PT Jasamarga Bali Tol (JBT) 1,565,913 1,515,896 3.3% 1,324,069 18.3% 13,671,814 10,992,044 24.4%

JORR W2U PT Marga Lingkar Jakarta

(MLJ) 2,246,085 2,131,251 5.4% 1,834,071 22.5% 20,367,478 10,176,165 100.1%

Gempol-Pandaan PT Jasa Marga Pandaan Tol 422,245 395,454 6.8% 1,611,806

Total Total 121,472,549 115,257,921 5.4% 116,761,187 4.0% 1,136,506,950 1,080,499,293 5.2%

Avrg daily traffic 3,918,469 3,841,931 2.0% 3,766,490 4.0% 3,738,510 3,554,274 5.2%

Anak Perusahaan


News of the Day

Trade surplus maintain at USD 1.01bn, capital

goods import sounds good

Oct’s export slipped -4% MoM (-21% YoY), happened

both in oil & gas (-5% MoM) and non oil & gas segment (-

3.9% MoM). The difference is decline in oil & gas were

backed by lower volume and price while non oil & gas

export was dragged by lower price (volume +5.34%

MoM).

Commodity which posted positive export growth were

CPO (+8.46% MoM), copper (+44% MoM), and Tins

(+54% MoM). Meanwhile, iron & steel dropped the most

by 37% MoM. Please note that the government imple-

ment higher import tax duty for upstream steel products

from 5-12.5% to 10-20% by the end of May ’15. Vehicle

export also down by 14.4% MoM.

Import value declined by -4.3% MoM (-27.8% YoY).

Consumption product dropped by 6.17% MoM followed by

raw material import (-5.14% MoM). Yet, capital goods

import sound good with +0.23% MoM growth vs -0.70%

MoM in Sept.

Overall, trade surplus is maintaned at USD 1.01bn (same

level with Sept ’15). Going forward, Indonesia’s export-

import activities will remain haunted with slowing econo-

my from its main trading partner. Government regulation

on export-import also anti dumping policy will also play

as critical role to help Indonesia’s export-import perfor-

mance. ([email protected])

Economy : BI likely will maintain its benchmark

rate at 7.50%

Bank Indonesia to hold monthly rate meeting on Nov 17;

We expect no change in BI’s benchmark rate, inline with

consensus. The recent economy package issued by Bank

Indonesia aims to stabilize rupiah currency, thus we think

the next movement also will align. US central bank is also

likely to delay rate increase until December or early next

year. ([email protected])

ASII is seeking several mine mouth power plants in

Sumatra

No further details are given. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

ANTM targets gold production to double next year

ANTM targets gold production of 5m tonnes this year, 2x

larger compared to this year’s 2.5m tonnes. Source:

Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

ADES: keeps expanding its export business for co-

mestic products

To date, export portion only contributes <10% to consoli-

dated revenue which only covers Korea and Malaysia. In

term of bottled water segment, the company plans to add

bottled water production capacity to be 800mn lt per an-

num. The company did not give any comment regarding the

investment value. Source: Kontan

PANR: build 20 hotels through its subsidiary by 2020

The hotels are categorized as mid scale hotel, with

US$60,000-70,000 (Rp700-800mn) investment value per

room. Every hotel is expected to have 150-180 rooms,

translating to Rp105-144bn per hotel (exclude the land

price). Source: Kontan

SMSM: targets to reach 70% contribution revenue

from export market

SMSM keeps expanding into export market by enlarging its

sales in Latin America area; Mexico and Brazil. Currently,

export portion still contributes 68.2% to its revenue.

Source: Kontan

PUPR absorbed 58% of budget as of current

Ministry of Public Work and Public Housing (PUPR) has

absorbed Rp69.3tn, or about 58.06% from the revised state

budget of Rp118tn. Physical progress have reached 66.4%

as of current. Taufik Widjojono, Secretary General of PUPR

mentioned its optimism to be able to absorb 73.11% by end

of November and 93% by end of 2015. Taufik also men-

tioned that the targetted groundbreaking for Manado-

Bitung, Balikpapan-Samarinda and Pemalang-Batang toll

roads. Source: Investor Daily

ADHI: 10M15 new contract at Rp10.6tn

With 9M15 new contract stood at Rp10.1tn, translating to

roughly Rp500bn new contracts in October. Co cited the

major contributors of new contracts in October: Drinking

Water Development System in Bengkulu (Rp126bn) and

rehabilitation of main building in Klambu (Rp142bn). Note

that the co has yet to incorporate LRT in their order book.

Source: Company

Comment: ADHI’s 10M15 new contract will look pale in

comparison with other SOE construction companies, with

PTPP obtaining Rp18.63tn new contract by 10M15 (Oct

standalone contract at Rp1.67tn). However, valuation wise,

the stock is currently trading at a mere 12.8x with more

than 40% gap on other SOE contractors PE multiple. That

said, we retain our BUY call on the stock, reiterating our

Rp3,000 TP.


News of the Day

Telco: Minister of Communication and Informatics

hopes 4G handset priced ~Rp600K to be available

in the next three years

The Minister added that not all 4G handsets price need to

be lowered (some can still in high end level). Most of 4G

handsets in the market are currently priced

~IDR1.99mn. Source: Investor Daily

Banks: OJK proposes additional regional develop-

ment banks to help distributing KUR

The regulator recently appointed Bank NTT (East Nusa

Tenggara development bank) as one of the KUR lenders.

In addition, both OJK and Coordinating Minister of Econo-

my urges for lower KUR NPL on regional development

banks. According to the KUR committee data as of No-

vember 2014, regional development banks which has

KUR NPL ≤5% are, among others, Bank Nagari (West

Sumatera development Bank), Bank Jateng (Central Java

development bank), Bank DIY (Yogyakarta Special Re-

gion development bank), Central Kalimantan develop-

ment bank, and South Kalimantan development bank.

Source: Investor Daily ([email protected])

BMRI: partnering with South Korean payment sys-

tem firm to establish an acquiring company in

1Q16

The purpose of a JV acquiring company establishment is

to increase opex efficiency and to empower its EDC

business. The establishment is an open investment and

open platform, i.e., BMRI allows other SOE banks, BUKU

II banks, or regional development banks to use the

electronic banking platform, e.g. EDC. Source: Investor

Daily ([email protected])

BNLI: may do rights issue to add capital

The company is currently in talks with shareholders to

add capital. As of 9M15, Bank Permata (BNLI) CAR was

1 3 . 6 % . S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

Ancora Indonesia Resources (AIR) Takeaways:

• Ancora Indonesia Resources (AIR) is a diversified

natural resources company, with two main subsidiar-

ies: PT Multi Nitrotama Kimia (MNK) which is the mar-

ket leader in Indonesia for mining explosives

(ammonium nitrate) and PT Bormindo Nusantara which

is a company providing onshore drilling rig services to

oil and gas operators in Indonesia.

• AIR recorded a 514% increase of net loss from -

US465mn in 9M14 to -US2,855mn in 9M15, mainly

because of lower revenue which is not followed by

lower expenses. This was a result of the fall of mining

and O&G industry in 2015.

• Cash & equivalents decreased by 78% in 9M15, as

company repays its bank loans (loans decreased by

15% YoY) and it now has lower payables (-25% YoY)

• Company expects no significant changes in 2016, as

management foresees mining and O&G industry will

not recover yet. Note that there might still be lower

r e v e n u e a n d p r o f i t m a r g i n .

([email protected])


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

-148-83

-759

-282

-16

-576

-655

-130

-1,022

-364

-4

-268

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD

Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/5/2015 ID GDP YoY 3Q 4.8 4.7 4.7

US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 31-Oct 262 276.0 260

US Continuing Claims ('000') 24-Oct 2140 2163.0 2144

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 1-Nov -- 41.1 42.8

EC Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Oct -- 51.3 51.9

EC Retail Sales MoM Sep 0.2 -0.1 0.0

EC Retail Sales YoY Sep 3.0 2.9 2.3

11/6/2015 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls ('000') Oct 185 271 142

US Change in Manufact. Payrolls ('000') Oct -5 0 -9

US Unemployment Rate (%) Oct 5 5 5.1

ID Foreign Reserves (USDbn) Oct - 100.7 101.7

11/9/2015 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Nov 13.1 15.1 11.7

11/10/2015 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Oct 96.5 96.1 96.1

US Import Price Index MoM (%) Oct -0.3 -0.1 -0.1

US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Sep 0.1 0.5 0.1

11/11/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications (%) 6-Nov -- -1.3 -0.8

11/12/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 7-Nov 270 276 276

US Continuing Claims ('000') 31-Oct 2165 2174 2163

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Nov -- 41.6 41.1

EC Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -0.1 -0.3 -0.5

EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Sep 1.3 1.7 0.9

11/13/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn) Oct -132 -136.5 -121.7

US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Oct 0.3 0.1 0.1

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%) Oct 0.4 0.2 -0.3

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%) Oct 0.4 0.3 0.0

US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -0.4 -0.5

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.1 -0.3

US PPI Final Demand YoY (%) Oct -1.2 -1.6 -1.1

US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%) Oct 0.5 0.1 0.8

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov P 91.5 93.1 90

EC Trade Balance SA (USDbn) Sep 19.3 20.1 19.8

EC Trade Balance NSA (USDbn) Sep 16 20.5 11.2

EC GDP SA QoQ (%) 3Q A 0.4 0.3 0.4

EC GDP SA YoY (%) 3Q A 1.7 1.6 1.5

11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -6.3 -- -11.4

ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct 784 -- 1017

11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY (%) Oct -16.2 -- -18.0

EC CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -- 0.2

EC CPI YoY (%) Oct F 0 -- 0.0

EC CPI Core YoY (%) Oct F 1 -- 1.0

11/17/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -- -0.2

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -- 0.2

US CPI YoY (%) Oct 0.1 -- 0.0

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -- -0.2

US Capacity Utilization Oct 77.5 -- 77.5

ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 17-Nov 7.5 -- 7.5

ID Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate 17-Nov 8 -- 8.0

11/18/2016 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn) Sep -- -- 20.4

US Total Net TIC Flows (%) Sep -- -- -9.2

US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Nov -- -- --

US Housing Starts ('000') Oct 1160 -- 1,206

US Building Permits ('000') Oct 1149 -- 1103

11/19/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 14-Nov 270 -- 276


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -15.01% 3,647

YTD (USD) 5.67% 3,557

Moving Avg 20day 4,543 4,698

Moving Avg 50day 4,440 12.7

Moving Avg 200day 4,944 2.8%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,200.3 -47.0 -0.9 -16.1

JII 581.5 -6.0 -1.0 -15.8

LQ45 756.5 -6.4 -0.8 -15.8

JAKFIN Index 658.6 -2.2 -0.3 -10.0

JAKINFR Index 890.8 -10.2 -1.1 -23.2

JAKMINE Index 878.5 -13.4 -1.5 -35.8

JAKCONS Index 2,030.7 -6.9 -0.3 -6.8

JAKTRAD Index 814.0 -2.1 -0.3 -7.3

JAKMIND Index 1,111.6 -26.1 -2.3 -15.0

JAKBIND Index 387.5 -3.8 -1.0 -28.7

JAKPROP Index 474.2 -1.3 -0.3 -9.7

JAKAGRI Index 1,616.7 -21.0 -1.3 -31.2

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 185.4 0.6 0.35 -19.4

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.6 1.0 2.18 -22.2

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 41.7 1.0 2.45 -21.7

Natural Gas 2.4 0.0 1.02 -17.8

COAL (AUS Daily) 52.4 0.0 0.00 -15.6

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,464.5 -25.5 -1.71 -20.1

Nickel (USD/tonne) 9,310 -115 -1.22 -38.5

Tin (USD/tonne) 14,700 -50 -0.34 -24.2

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,083.6 2.7 0.25 -8.5

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.2 0.0 0.13 -8.8

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,132 -51.0 -2.34 -6.9

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,197 -22.7 -1.86 -27.1

Corn (USD/bu.) 360 1.8 0.49 -9.3

Wheat (USD/bu.) 494 -1.8 -0.35 -16.3

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 860 4.3 0.50 -15.7

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.936 0.008 0.8 17.0

USDGBP UK 0.658 0.002 0.2 9.6

USDCHF Switzerland 1.010 0.004 0.4 1.0

USDCAD Canada 1.333 0.001 0.1 11.1

USDAUD Australia 1.409 0.007 0.5 17.4

USDNZD New Zealand 1.540 0.011 0.7 18.5

USDJPY Japan 123.18 0.570 0.5 2.8

USDCNY China 6.37 (0.00) -0.1 2.7

USDHKD Hongkong 7.751 0.000 0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.423 -0.001 -0.1 9.4

Rupiah Indonesia 13,749 64.0 0.5 11.0

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,667.5 13.15 0.79 -2.47

SPX S&P 500 2,053.2 30.15 1.49 -0.28

US

17,483.0 237.8 1.38 -1.91

Nasdaq US 4,984.6 56.73 1.15 5.25

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 370.6 1.11 0.30 8.22

FTSE London 6,146.4 28.10 0.46 -6.39

DAX Jerman 10,713.2 4.8 0.05 9.26

CAC France 4,804.3 -3.64 -0.08 12.44

SMI Swiss 8,727.1 -22.75 -0.26 -2.85

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 46,846.9 330 0.71 -6.32

MICEX Russia 1,739.8 11.63 0.67 24.57

SENSEX India 25,760.1 149.6 0.58 -6.32

NIFTY India 7,806.6 44.4 0.57 -5.75

SHCOMP China 3,607.0 26.12 0.73 11.51

SZCOMP China 2,251.0 45.41 2.06 59.06

Nikkei Japan 19,393.7 -203.2 -1.04 11.13

TPX Japan 1,571.5 -14.30 -0.90 11.65

HSI Hong kong 22,010.8 -385 -1.72 -6.75

KOSPI S.Korea 1,943.0 -30.27 -1.53 1.43

TAIEX Taiwan 8,295.4 -34.1 -0.41 -10.87

FSSTI Singapore 2,915.7 -9.95 -0.34 -13.36

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,388.6 6.16 0.45 -7.28

PCOMP Philipines 6,772.9 -124.9 -1.81 -6.33

KLCI Malaysia 1,656.0 -2.91 -0.18 -5.98

VNINDEX Vietnam 609.2 -2.06 -0.34 11.66

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

-1.3

-1.5

-1.9

-2.0

-2.0

-2.2

-2.5

-2.7

-3.0

-5.5

TLKM

PGAS

INDF

INTP

BMRI

CPIN

MIKA

ASII

HMSP

PTBA10.7

6.4

6.0

4.9

3.3

3.1

2.7

2.6

1.7

1.2

MEGA

AMRT

MAYA

TELE

SILO

LPKR

CTRA

GGRM

LPPF

SMGR

214

154

145

135

116

106

106

106

93

77

- 100 200 300

BBRI

SSMS

ASII

LPKR

BMRI

TLKM

MYRX

SMGR

BBCA

PTBA

160

128

126

118

102

94

83

81

66

52

0 100 200

MYRX

NIRO

META

LPKR

SUGI

SSMS

PPRO

ANTM

TARA

BWPT

6,497

5,627

4,871

4,850

4,411

4,405

4,309

4,132

4,110

3,861

LPKR

SSMS

LPPF

SMGR

PTBA

KLBF

TLKM

ASII

BBRI

SMRA

JCI 4,442.2 (30.7) -0.7%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

PTPP 3,805 Buy

3,830 0.66% Correct

GGRM 43,425 Buy

43,700 0.63% Correct

SMRA 1,420 Buy

1,440 1.41% Correct

BBRI 10,550 Buy

10,675 1.18% Correct

BBTN 1,095 Buy

1,105 0.91% Correct

SRIL 392 Trd. Buy

397 1.28% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

NIRO 128 Buy

130 1.56% Correct

DMAS 230 Buy

231 0.43% Correct

SMCB 1,100 Buy

1,105 0.45% Correct

ITMG 10,500 Buy

10,850 3.33% Correct

SRIL 392 Buy

397 1.28% Correct

PGAS 3,000 Sell

2,995 -0.17% Correct



4,491 0.10% Correct

TLKM 2,740 Buy

2,710 -1.09% Incorrect

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,450 0.78% Correct

PWON 397 Buy

390 -1.76% Incorrect

ASRI 398 Buy


ASII 6,125 Sell

6,325 3.27% Incorrect

PGAS 2,950 Sell

2,890 -2.03% Correct



4,612 0.48% Correct

TINS 710 Buy

730 2.82% Correct

INCO 2,310 Buy

2,410 4.33% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell


BBRI 10,550 Sell


PWON 416 Buy

420 0.96% Correct

SMGR 10,550 Buy

10,700 1.42% Correct



4,446 2.35% Correct

AALI 20,325 Buy

20,000 -1.60% Incorrect

BMRI 8,200 Buy

8,900 8.54% Correct

PWON 367 Buy

383 4.36% Correct

BBNI 4,400 Buy

4,535 3.07% Correct

ITMG 10,000 Sell


SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy

10,075 0.25% Correct





4,344 3.23% Correct

ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy

10,000 2.83% Correct

PWON 339 Spec Buy

367 8.26% Correct

ANTM 481 Spec Buy

481 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,585 Buy

3,700 3.21% Correct

GGRM 44,450 Buy

46,600 4.84% Correct

SSMS 1,730 Buy

1,795 3.76% Correct


JCI 4,255 Weakening

4,208 -1.11% Correct

PTPP 3,580 Buy

3,585 0.14% Correct

ASII 5,275 Buy


AALI 19,300 Buy

19,100 -1.04% Incorrect

TINS 680 Buy


INCO 2,545 Buy


GGRM 43,300 Buy

44,450 2.66% Correct



4,255 0.73% Correct

TLKM 2,645 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,180 0.43% Correct

UNVR 38,000 Buy

38,800 2.11% Correct

INCO 2,185 Trd. Buy

2,545 16.48% Correct

TINS 640 Trd. Buy

680 6.25% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation


4,224 1.09% Correct

PTPP 3,475 Buy


BBNI 4,070 Buy

4,135 1.60% Correct

BBRI 8,350 Buy

8,650 3.59% Correct

ASII 5,300 Buy


GGRM 42,750 Sell

42,000 -1.75% Correct

UNTR 16,900 Sell



JCI 4,121 Weakening


PTPP 3,410 Buy

3,475 1.91% Correct

ROTI 1,145 Buy


TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,400 0.00% Correct

AKRA 5,875 Sell


BBTN 1,000 Sell

995 -0.50% Correct

LSIP 1,400 Sell 1.07% Incorrect




JCI 4,209 Rebound


TLKM 2,655 Buy


PTPP 3,470 Buy


BBNI 4,110 Buy


BBRI 8,550 Buy


ADRO 585 Buy


AKRA 6,000 Sell

5,875 -2.08% Correct


JCI 4,244 Weakening

4,209 -0.82% Correct

ITMG 9,500 Buy


TBIG 6,550 Buy


LSIP 1,320 Buy

1,400 6.06% Correct

AALI 17,925 Buy

17,950 0.14% Correct

INCO 1,870 Buy

2,080 11.23% Correct

TINS 620 Buy

645 4.03% Correct


JCI 4,344 Weakening

4,244 -2.29% Correct

LSIP 1,260 Buy

1,320 4.76% Correct

ASII 5,800 Buy


TBIG 6,800 Buy


ADRO 595 Buy


SRIL 373 Buy

377 1.07% Correct

BWPT 254 Sell

246 -3.15% Correct


JCI 4,376 Rebound


TLKM 2,730 Buy


AALI 18,100 Buy

17,900 -1.10% Incorrect

ASII 5,800 Buy

5,800 0.00% Correct

BBNI 4,330 Buy


DILD 625 Buy


ROTI 1,175 Buy



JCI 4,380 Weakening

4,376 -0.10% Correct

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,175 0.00% Correct

SCMA 2,780 Buy

2,800 0.72% Correct

GGRM 42,825 Buy

43,025 0.47% Correct

TLKM 2,690 Buy

2,730 1.49% Correct

EXCL 2,395 Sell

2,415 0.84% Correct

WTON 895 Sell

885 -1.12% Correct





4,380 0.04% Correct

BBNI 4,350 Buy


SCMA 2,700 Buy

2,780 2.96% Correct

UNVR 39,100 Buy

39,100 0.00% Correct

TINS 640 Buy


WIKA 2,725 Sell

2,710 -0.55% Correct

ROTI 1,180 Sell

1,175 -0.42% Correct


JCI 4,333 Rebound

4,378 1.06% Correct

UNTR 18,850 Buy

18,675 -0.93% Incorrect

TLKM 2,720 Buy

2,680 -1.47% Correct

BBNI 4,315 Buy


PWON 348 Buy

351 0.86% Incorrect

SMGR 9,700 Buy

9,700 0.00% Correct

ASII 5,900 Buy

5,925 0.42% Correct


JCI 4,347 Weakening

4,333 -0.34% Correct

AKRA 5,575 Buy

5,575 0.00% Correct

UNTR 18,200 Buy

18,850 3.57% Correct

BBNI 4,360 Buy


BMRI 8,700 Buy


WIKA 2,675 Sell

2,660 -0.56% Correct

MPPA 2,290 Sell

2,245 -1.97% Correct


JCI 4,390 Weakening

4,347 -0.98% Correct

BBNI 4,450 Buy

4,360 -2.02% Correct

BBCA 12,100 Buy

11,950 -1.24% Correct

AKRA 5,750 Buy


SMRA 1,330 Buy


INTP 19,975 Sell

19,300 -3.38% Correct

PGAS 2,665 Sell

2,620 -1.69% Correct


JCI 4,360 Rebond

4,390 0.69% Correct

LSIP 1,170 Buy

1,210 3.42% Correct

BWPT 275 Buy

275 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,550 Buy


AALI 18,000 Sell


ADRO 565 Spec. Buy

570 0.88% Correct

PGAS 2,685 Sell

2,665 -0.74% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Patricia Gabriela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Kevie Aditya

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Jennifer Yapply

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk located outside of the United States (a “non-US

Group Company”). This report is distributed in the U.S. by Enclave Capital LLC (“Enclave Capital”), a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934

(the “Exchange Act”)) pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in

this report must be effected through Enclave Capital. Neither the report nor any analyst who prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S.

legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research

reports or research analysts. No non-US Group Company is registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act or is a member of the

Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. or any other U.S. self-regulatory organization.

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