Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia
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CC AND MIGRATION;A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent
Developed Country
Triarko Nurlambang
Center for Applied Geography
The University of Indonesia
CC impact towards Migration ?? • Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates
- complexity understanding increase less linear way of thinking
- political intervention vs academicians & NGOs influence/advocate in creating public opinions (“CC hysteria”; “mis-leading” public understanding; creates public confusion: better wait than do something costly)
• Indonesia – Australia: a comparative study in the context of climate change - Different geographical settings (physical and social-culture landscape); displacement, vulnerability - Demographic Theory: migration flow from Indonesia to Australia (hypothesis)
• Is there any direct Climate Change impact on migration? - Uncertain impact : problem of understanding decision making process (as well as complexity of phenomena) and prediction methods. Moving decision is more complex process of making decision for most Asian people (including Indonesia; if not forced) compare to Australia - In terms of living system (system thinking: adaptive and mitigation): from mental models to reality, CC is seems as an evolution change process rather than revolution (we still have time to improve adaptive capacity) - Those problems gear to the capacity of adaptation development (especially dealing with localities understanding)
• The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly scenario (Oli Brown, 2008)
• Conclusion - CC and migration is a systemic complex phenomena where Ina. delaying intervention on “BAU” may be top
priority.
- Aussie can be put as one entity of regional system for living
- So what is the common ground between Ina. and Aussie dealing with CC and migration? building
learning process for better understanding
• Warming 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade• Increase in annual precipitation across islands, except in the southern hemisphere (projected to decline by 15%)• Change in the seasonality of precipitation; parts of Sumatra and Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by 2080’s (Dec-Feb); Jakarta projected to be 5- 15% drier (Jun-Aug)• 30-day delay in the annual monsoon, 10% increase in rainfall later in the crop year (April-June), and up to 75% decrease in rainfall later in the dry season (July–September)• Mean sea level increase 31 mm by the next decade; and it is predicted that about 2,000 island in Indonesia will disappear by 2030• In case of Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, it is predicted that by the 2050 some settlement areas and main harbour Tanjung Priok will be flooded
INDONESIA AND CC PREDICTION
Global Warming may caused increasing sea level. It is predicted that by 2050 Tanjung Priok Port and Pantai Indah Kapuk Real Estate in northern part of Jakarta will be sank.
Direct Climate Changes
Indirect Climate Changes
Type of Movement Time Span
Gradual climate change
Chronic disasters, such as drought, degradation
Seasonal labour migration. Temporary circulation
Seasonal
Gradual climate change
Chronic disasters drought/ degradation
Contract labour migration
Yearly
Sudden or gradual climate change
Natural disasters/ severe drought/ famine/ floods
Forced/ distress migration
Temporary
Sudden or gradual climate change
Extreme temperatures/ sea level rise
Permanent migration Lifetime
Source: Raleigh, et. al (2008)
Environmental system
Climate change and variability
Extreme events
Air, Water, Land quality and availability
Sea level rise
En
vir.
imp
acts
Changes in emissions and land cover
Changes in Water, Land, Air, Capital,
Labour stockand productivity
Change in Production andconsumption
patterns
Eco
n. i
mp
acts
Vul
nera
bili
ty
PoliciesMitigationAdaptation
Economic system
EnvironmentalPressures
EconomicPressures
Inter-relation between Environmental System and Economic System may creates migration
Migration
Adaptive (and mitigation) capacity developing
Ecology
Economy
Social Structure
Attention
Metaphysics
Epistemology
Cognitive Process
Westerners Orientation
Cognitive Process
Epistemology
Metaphysics
Attention
Social Structure
Economy
Ecology
Asians Orientation
Source: Nisbett, Richard E., 2003
Public Awareness and Understanding: the Fuel of
Change
Reorienting Education to Climate Change Impact towards Sustainable Development
Shifting to Sustainable Lifestyle: Changing Consumption and Production Pattern
Ethics, Culture, Equity: Sustainable as a Moral
Imperative
Mobilizing for Action
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1997
Pattern of Change
Continue change
Continue change & accelerated
Un-continue change (incremental change)
Climate Change is seems an evolution rather than
revolution adaptive and mitigation capacity have greater opportunity to be
improved
Public Policies :
Government
Public Action : Public
initiative
Scenario Assumption Typology of climate change impact (2050)
The Good Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)Clean Management DevelopmentAll big emission producer countries join the international carbon emission commitment
Relatively lowAtmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 600 ppmAverage temperature rise by 1.80 CSea level rise 18-38 cmMigration increase by 5 – 10% along the displacement areas
The Bad Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structure (less materials intensity)The international commitment to reduce gas emission is delay due to remain usage of fossil fuelSome funds are invested to adapt but not enough
Relatively quite highAtmosphere concentration of CO2 stabilize around 850 ppmAverage temperature rise by 2.40 C (Stern report: a 30C temperature rise would mean 1 to 4 billion people suffer water shortage)Sea level rise 21-48 cmMillions of people would be temporarily displaced by individual extreme weather events.
The Ugly Population peaks mid-century around 9 billion and declines thereafter towards 7 billionRapid change in economic structureA “business as usual” scenario in consuming fossil fuel
Relatively highAtmosphere concentration of CO2 around 1550 ppmAverage temperature rise by 4.00 C Sea level rise 29-59 cmIt may exceeding the 200 millions people displaced by climate change
Oli Brown, 2008
Surely a quality education which covered Life Skills and based on the achievement of sustainable development
Learning
Level of the learner processes
Content
What the learner brings
Seeks out learners
EnvironmentSupportive legislative framework
Implementation of good policies
Level of the learner processes
Resources Means to measure learning outcomes
“Education is an indispensable element for achieving sustainable development”
GoI Response to CLIMATE CHANGE
- As a consequence of COP-13 UNFCCC in Bali, (December 2007), it has established a BALI ROAD for 2012 and Post Kyoto Protocol.
- GoI established Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim (DNPI); National Board for Climate Change (Presidential Decree No.46/Th.2008), The President of RI as the Head, Vice of Head: Ministerial Coordination for Welfare Affairs, and 17 Ministries, and Meteorology and Climate Bureau as the members. The MOE appointed to be supervisor
- GoI has allocated about 2 thousand billion rupiah (+/- 256 billion Aus$) for improving mitigation capacity towards CC.
Figure 1.The global carbon cycle.
Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) http://www.unep.org/