Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going? Brett Stuart Cartagena July 16.
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Transcript of Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going? Brett Stuart Cartagena July 16.
![Page 1: Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going? Brett Stuart Cartagena July 16.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032701/56649c7d5503460f94932ad9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Trends of Pork Consumption: Where Are We Going?Brett Stuart
Cartagena July 16
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Outline
• Global Protein Demand & Supply• Global Opportunities
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GLOBAL DEMAND & SUPPLY
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19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
20012005
200902468
101214161820 Global Protein Consumption
Seafood
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Kilo
s pe
r Cap
ita
Source: UN/FAO, beef and pork in carc wt equiv.
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Global Demand
More mouths…..(375 million – past 5 yrs)
With more $…..(US$4.1 trillion – past 5 yrs)
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Source: USDA/FAS
Global Meat and Broiler Production
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Source: GTIS, AgriTrends
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Source: UN/FAO
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20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013f
2014f0
20
40
60
80
100
120Global Pork Production
MM
T
Source: USDA/FAS
Averaging 1.8 MMT Per Year Growth
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Total
China EU
Hong Kong
Philippines
Vietnam
Argentina
Ukraine
Brazil
Others0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
1.8
1.344 0.142
0.047 0.043 0.04 0.036 0.033 0.0310.031
Global Pork Consumption Growth Markets: 2014
Bil L
bs, c
arc.
wei
ght e
quiv
.
Growth Markets: 1.800 Bil lbsDeclining Markets: -0.440 Bil lbs
(US down -0.115 Bil Lbs)
Source: USDA/FAS
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China
EUU.S
.
Brazi
l
India
Russia
Mex
ico
Argen
tina
Canad
a
Austra
lia -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Global Meat Producers
BroilerPorkBeef
Mil
lio
n M
T
Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
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China
EUU.S
.
Brazi
l
Russia
Mex
ico
Japan
India
Argen
tina
Vietn
am -
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Global Meat Consumers
BroilerPorkBeef
Bil
Lb
s
Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
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Source: USDA/FAS, 2014F, beef and pork in carcass-weight equivalents
Japan
Russia
Mex
ico
China
U.S.
H. Kong EU
S. Ara
bia
S. Kore
a -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Global Meat Importers
BroilerPorkBeef
Bil
Lb
s
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20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014f
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Global Pork Exports
U.S.
EU-28
Canada
Brazil
China
Chile
Other
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
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Global Opportunities
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Source: Various market reports, AgriTrends
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19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20112013
20152017
20192021
20232025
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
Global Pork Exports as a % of Consumption
Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast
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19951998
20012004
20072010
20132016
20192022
20250
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000Global Pork Exports
Actual Linear (Actual) Forecast
Met
ric
Tons
Assumes consumption increases 1.7% annually to 2025 (last 20 years = 1.9%)
Also assumes forecasted ex-ports as % of production
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Source: USDA/FAS, beef and pork in carc. wt. equiv.
2014 Imports = 2% of Chinese consumption
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
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Source: China MOA, AgriTrends
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Chinese Meat + Poultry ConsumptionForecasts in Red
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Chinese Corn For FeedForecasts in Yellow
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Source: Japan ALIC
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Source: USDA, AgriTrends
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Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends
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19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade
Imports
Met
ric
Tons
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19701973
19761979
19821985
19881991
19941997
20002003
20062009
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000U.S. Beef Trade
Imports Exports
Met
ric
Tons
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20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014f
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.6
2.5
U.S. Beef Imports and Exports
ExportsImports
Billi
on P
ound
s, c
we
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Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork
markets• 2013:
– 102 countries purchased imported pork– Lowest import prices COL 1,182 COL Pesos/kg– Highest import price COL 28,507 COL Pesos/kg
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Opportunities - Summary• Colombia can participate in global pork
markets– Identify best potential markets (economics and
sanitary requirements)– Assess pork-cut prices and opportunities– Work on gov’t-to-gov’t access
(certificates/licenses)– Be willing to meet importer specifications
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Gracias -