Trends in turbine size and technology

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Summary of talk•Whyconsiderturbinesizeandtechnology

•Lookatoverallsizetrends,andNZ

•Driversfortechnologychange

•Alookatsomerelevanttechnicalareas

•Looktothefuture

•Bestpractise

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Introduction

“They did not know it was impossible, so they did it.”MarkTwain

“20MW is Feasible”UpWindProject,2011

“Nothing is impossible. Some things are just less likely than others.”JonathanWinters

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Introductionwhyconsiderturbinesizeandtechnology?

…every year it seems turbines are getting bigger

•Consentingauthoritiesseekdefinitivedesigns

•Projectdesignparameters

•Resourceassessments

•Advancementsareloweringthecostofenergy

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Selected Recent NZ ConsentsTable of selected recent projects and their size limits/philosophy

Consented Parameters

Project Hub Height Rotor Tip height

Puketoi 100m 130m 160m

Castle Hill Wind Farm 70/90/110m 115/135/155m

Waitahora 100m 100m 125-150m

Turitea 80m 90m 125m

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Turbine size trends

Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era

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Turbine size trends NZ

Turbine sizes increases - selected models from era

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Technology drivers

What are the drivers for turbine technology change?

Reduction of the cost of energy

“Secondary” drivers

•MoreGWh

•Electricalandcommunicationstechnologies

•Economicsofscale

•Materialsscience

•Transport/logistics

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Areas of current R&D

New generation HTS materials = “technically and economically viable”

High Temperature Superconductors

•Superconductingwirewithveryhighperformance

•HTSGeneratorreportedlyaround1/3ofweightofconventionaldirectdriveMVAforMVA

1st generation HTS

2nd generation HTS

Copper price band

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Blades and transport

GE “fabric covered blade”

Two part blades Enercon blade transporter/lifter

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Other tech in play?

•Turbinebatterystorage

•Windfarmstorage

•Hydraulicdrivedrains

•Hybridtowers(concrete/steel)

•Advancedcompositetowers,eg“spaceframetower”

•Permanentmagnetgenerators?

•Completelynewdesigns?

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Turbine size/technology futuretrends

•UpWindproject(2011)concludedthata“20MW turbine is feasible”

•But,reliesontechnologicaladvances…

•Notclearwheneconomiesofscalerelationshipbreaksdown–ceilingkeepsshifting

•Manufacturersknowlogisticsareimportant

•Likelythatturbinescalewillincrease,10MWturbineswillprobablyberealised

•Withtechnologyadvances15MW+isquitepossible

•“Samebutbigger”wontcutit

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What about the ‘small’ end of the market?

•Therearestill“top-ten”manufacturersproducingsmallturbines

•Emergenceofplayersfocussingonthismarketsegment

•Relicensedtechnology

•Usedandrefurbishedturbineindustry

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So how should I plan my project?

•Researchindicatesturbinesaregettingbigger

•Visualassessmentisacomplexarea

Recommendations for developers

•Askmanufacturerswheretheirtechnologyisgoing,productretirement

•Setlimitsbasedonimplementationstrategy

•Continuallymonitormarket..thingschangequickly

ContactPeter ArmstrongUnitManager,EnergyServices,Aurecon+61399753037peter.armstrong@aurecongroup.com