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Trends In The South African Housing Market · 2018-05-10 · Trends In The South African Housing...
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A/ Prof Francois Viruly Construction Economics and Management Trends In The South African Housing Market
Transcript of Trends In The South African Housing Market · 2018-05-10 · Trends In The South African Housing...
A/ Prof Francois Viruly Construction Economics and Management
Trends In The South African Housing Market
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Bn R
SARB
Residential
Non Residential
Every Twenty Years we have a Major Property Construction Boom…
SARB & Stats SA
Economic Growth GDP
ABSA House Price Index ( Medium size ) (YOY % Change–Nominal 2000 = 100
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Index Mortgage Bonds
6 Eighty 20, 2012
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2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Milli
on P
eopl
e
Landau , 2008
Another 7.8 Million people will be in SA Cities in 2030 ?
Johannesburg - Population
Not Higher or Wider - But More Dense
TOWN
PLANNING
SERVICES
BUILDING
OCCUPATION
Regulating the Property Environment …
The Densification of the Built Environment
Urban Property
Cycles
DEMOGRAPHICS •URBANISATION •SEGMENTING THE MARKET • SINGLE HOMES
TECHNOLOGY •CONSTRUCTION •TRANSPORT •ICT
ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL
•GLOBALISATION •REGULATIONS •MANAGEMENT OF CYCLES
INSTITUTIONAL ARANGEMENTS
•URBAN PLANNING •ENVIRONMENTAL •STATE OF THE CITIES
PROPERTY MARKET •FUNDING •INFORMATION • EXPECTATIONS •ASSET FORM
% of Household Budget Spent on Transport in Africa
10.1
6
3.3 4.3
11.6
4.6
21
7.4
4.4
2.8
13.8
10.1
5.5
Source: OECD
Connecting the City for Economic Growth
Understanding Transportation Nodes
SA Inflation (StatsSA)
Operating Costs Breakdown -per SQM per Month 2009 Annual Average-All Property
SAPOA/IPD
Operating Costs (% Gross Rent Receivable 1995 – 2011)
IPD
Short-term Interest Rates
Maintaining a Balance Between Different Cities
Market Structures-Portfolio Investment
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
South AfricaUK
PortugalSpain
CanadaIreland
NorwayNetherlands
FranceGermanyDenmarkSweden
Residential Office Retail Industrial Other
SAPIX/IPD
CBD Offices Vacancy Rates
0
5
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15
20
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%
JHB CBD DBN CBD CPT CBD PTA CBD Jhb CBD includes Braamfontein SAPOA
Seeking Comfort, Security and Luxury in a Mixed-Use/ High Density Environment
• Of almost 6 million properties on the deeds registry, 3.5 million (58%) are valued less than R 500,000.
• Of about 6,886 suburbs on the deeds registry , almost 3,500 have an average property value of less than R 500,000.
• 47% of affordable market properties are found in former black townships.
• A shortage of 600,000 to 1 mil affordable housing units in SA (earning < R16’000 pm).
Some Characteristics of the Affordable Property Sector
Developing the Residential Asset Class ...
Funding The Property Owning Democracy
A 40 sqm House 40 km from the City
Spatial Planning
Transport Policies
Land Release
Economic Development
