Trends in Livestock Production and Consumption - Cees de Haan, World Bank
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Transcript of Trends in Livestock Production and Consumption - Cees de Haan, World Bank
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Cees de HaanCees de Haan
ConsultantConsultant
World BankWorld Bank
Where are the livestock - in what systems, what genetic background and what do they eat?
With some implications
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Overview of presentation
Production and consumption trends
The Livestock Revolution
Demand and supply drivers
Including feed and genetics
Systems and location
Implications for the three public goods
Equity, environment and health
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Production and consumption trends
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Trends
World Meat Production and Trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009
Beef Pigmeat Poultry Ovine
0
5
10
15
20
90 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009
Millio
n ton
nes
Beef Pork Poultry Meat Ovine
Source FAOSTAT
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Consumption levels
0
50
100
150
200
Devel
oped
Devel
opin
gAsi
aSSA
Kg/caputa
Milk Meat
Source FAOSTAT
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
0.57
1.78
1.09
3.07
2.07
2.65
2.48
2.73.85
0 2 4 6 8 10
Wheat
Coarse grains (feed)
Rice
Vegetable Oils
Poultry
Pigmeat
Beef
Milk
% change per annum
2008-2017 1998-2007
Trends Global food consumption growth
Source OECD-FAO 2008
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Drivers
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Demand drivers Population Growth
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1970 2000 2030 2050
Developing
Developed
Source: UN 2003
millions
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Demand driversUrbanization
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
number of persons
Source: UN 2003
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Demand drivers Higher income, higher meat consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Per capita income ($ PPP)
Per
capita m
eat consum
ption (kgs)
Source Delgado et al (1999)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Demand driversIncome Growth
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SS Africa NENA LAC S Asia E Asia
1990-2000
2000-30
2030-50
Per capita GDP growth rates at market prices
Source: WB 2005
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Supply Drivers: Livestock Technology
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Pasture Crop land for feed production
Meat production Milk production
index; 1961=100
Source: LLS (2006)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Supply driversGenetics
Genetics export 2005 (m.US$)
550
85170
Bovine semen Live Bovine Live Pig
Genetic flows (%)
17
33
60
South to North North to North
North to South South to South
Source Collin et al (2008)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Supply driversNarrowing genetic base
Holstein-Friesian now in 128 countries, Large White pigs in 117.
Of the 7544 local breeds 1491 are at risk. Highest share in Europe and Americas.
Policies often promote exotic breeds
Subsidized or free AI and subsidized feed;
Advice and extension etc.
Source: FAO (2007)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Supply Drivers Grain prices and regional use
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
Maize, US, US$ per bushel, deflated
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Developed EAP LAC SA SSAm.tons
1980 2005
Source: LLS (2006) and FAOSTAT
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Supply driversFeed categories consumption
0 100 200 300 400 500
Cereal
Brans
Pulses
Oilcrops
Oilcakes
Roots and tubers
Fishmeal
Develop'd
Developing
Source FAOSTAT
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they?
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they?Estimated distribution of livestock production systems
Source: LLS (2006)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
TrendsRegional meat production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2030 2050
Developing Developed
Million metric tons
Source: LLS (2006)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they?Production systems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
M. ton
RedMeat
Pork Poultrymeat
Eggs Milk
Grazing Mixed Landless
Source: LLS (2006)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they? Geographical shift over time
Four movements
Dispersed w/access to local markets
Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)
Close to feed resources (developed transport infrastructure)
In areas characterized by low human population density (environmental regulations)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they?Location of industrial pig sector in southern Viet Nam
Source: LLS (2006)
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Hensbirds/year/mun.
Soy beantons/year/mun.
Humanspersons/year/mun.
Swineheads/year/
mun.
Where are they?South Brazil - Geographical shifts 1992 - 2001 period
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Where are they?Enterprise form
Livestock is important for the poor
More than 950 million have livestock at least as a part of their livelihood, be it for income, food security, traction and fertilizer
Smallholders dominate in most developing countries
Indonesia: Only 3 percent poultry meat from large farms
India: 5.5 percent of national workforce in dairy sector
But larger commercial enterprises are substituting in middle income countries.
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Some Implications for global public goods
Environment
Social equity
Public Health
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Environmental effects
Negative:
Use one third of arable land, contributed to 20 percent rangeland degradation,
18 percent of anthropogenic GHG emission
15 percent of global agriculture water evapo-transpiration
Bio-diversity threat to 306 of the 825 terrestrial eco-regions and loss of domestic animal genetic resources
Positive
Potential for carbon sequestration
Energy savings
¼ cultivated w/ animal traction
Fertilizer savings
Could supply 50 percent of nutrients
GHG emission per kg product declining?
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
The equity implications
Smallholders are not benefitting from Livestock Revolution
China: 70 million poultry farm exits between 1996 and 2005
Brazil: 30 percent decline in dairy farmers around Rio between 1997 and 2000
Thailand: Major decline in smallholder poultry
But is a push or a pull??
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
The health implications
NegativeZoonotic and potential pandemic diseases;
One new emerging disease each year, of which 75 percent zoonotic. Economic impact considerable;
Of 1415 known pathogens, 62 percent of animal origin;
1.6 million annual TB fatalities of which 2-15 percent (?) of bovine origin;
Food borne pathogens important contributor to diarrheal diseases.
Contribution to obesity and other food related health risks
Positive
Provision of critical nutrients to vulnerable groups
Strong relationship between intake of animal source food and growth, cognitive behavior in children and pregnant and nursing women morbidity
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Conclusion
Reduce consumption?
Unlikely in the developing world
Make it safer and more sustainable
Internalize externalities but will result in higher price
Increase the share of the poor in the benefits of the Livestock Revolution
Higher environmental (GCC) and public health risks
Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009
Editorial: Meat and the Planet
…….. There are no easy trade-offs when it comes to global warming — such as cutting back on cattle to make room for cars. The human passion for meat is certainly not about to end anytime soon. As “Livestock’s Long Shadow” makes clear, our health and the health of the planet depend on pushing livestock production in more sustainable directions.
NYT, December 27, 2006