Trends in Integrated Hydrologic Modeling · `Integrated Regional Water Management Plan ... `more...
Transcript of Trends in Integrated Hydrologic Modeling · `Integrated Regional Water Management Plan ... `more...
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1RIME
Trends in Integrated Hydrologic Modeling
by
Saquib Najmus, Ph.D., P.E.&
Reza Namvar, Ph.D., P.E.
WRIME, Inc., Sacramento
California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum
March, 2005
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2RIME
Presentation Outline
} Perspective on Integration and Modeling} Evolution of Integrated Modeling} Examples from Recent and Ongoing Work} Ideas for Future} Conclusions
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3RIME
Purpose of a Model
} The purpose of a model is to support resource management decisions. All other truths on this subject are merely derivative.
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RIME
Integration is an overused word ..
} Integrated Groundwater Surface water Model (IGSM)
} Integrated Hydrogeologic Modeling System (InHMS)
} Integrated Watershed Management} Integrated Regional Water Management Plan
(Proposition 50) } …………
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} Integration across various dimensions of water –Surface water, Groundwater, Water Quality
} Integration across natural resources – land and environmental process, terrestrial and aquatic systems
} Integration across social and economic developmen
Dimensions of Integration
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6RIMERIME
An Example ….
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7RIME
Purpose of a Model Did Not Change …But the Use of a Model Changed ….
} started as a scientific tool to understandphysical relationships
} now used for multiple purposes¦ from scientific analysis to resolve political and legal
conflicts
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8RIME
SCIENTIFICFACTS
things that are known to be true
PUBLICVALUES
things that areregarded as
desirable
Resource Management Conflicts ..
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11RIME
On top of that we have …
} more theories} more digital data} faster computers} more numerical algorithms} GIS} more public scrutiny
} …. But less time
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12RIME
Integration is needed ….
} “California has an urgent need to develop an integrated set of analytical tools and supporting data to strategically evaluate the wide range of options available for water management problems in California. “
} CWEMF Strategic Analysis Framework Initiative
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13RIME
Different Levels of Integration …
} Component Integration¦ Physical System modeled as a whole (SW,GW, Land Use …)
} Process Integration¦ Automation of data exchange among models
} Database Integration¦ Integration of models with databases; shared databases
} User Interface Integration¦ Single interface to analyze model input/output
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14RIME
Irrigation Water
Direct Runoff
GroundwaterPumping
Surface WaterDiversion
GroundwaterStorage
StreamSystem
Baseflow/StreamSeepage Loss
Recharge throughunsaturated zone
Evapotranspiration
Infiltration
Rain
Accretion toSoil Moisture
SurfaceReturn Flow
Soil MoistureStorage
MODFLOW
Operations Models
Consumptive Use Model
Component IntegrationIGSM, MIKESHE
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15RIME
¦ Output of one model is the input of next
¦ Users handle the interfacing and data transfer
¦ No feed back
Complex Process of Serial Models
Interface
Model
Data
Interface
Model
Data
Interface
Model
Data
Interface
Model
Data
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16RIME
Process Integration
Traditional Approach: 2 Weeks
SpreadsheetProcessing/
GraphingCut &Paste
Post-ProcessingGraphing
TemperatureModel
Operations Model(PROSIM)
Fish MortalityModel
Pre-and Post-Processing
SpreadsheetProcessing/
GraphingCut &Paste
Pre-and Post-Processing
Integrated Approach: 1 Day
TemperatureModel
Operations Model(PROSIM)
Fish MortalityModel
Menu DrivenAutomated Processing
andVisualization
Menu DrivenAutomated Processing
andVisualization
Menu DrivenAutomated Processing
andVisualization
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17RIME
¦ Address a single issue¦ Self-contained¦ No Linking
Interface
Model
Database
Data and User Interface IntegrationSingle Model
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18RIME
¦ Integrated Models with feed back loops
¦ Mostly designed to run on a single machine and not via networks/internet
Interface
WQ
Flow
Ecology
Socio-Econ
Database
Data and User Interface IntegrationMultiple Models
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19RIME
This was all past ..What about Future …
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20RIME
Integrated Hydrologic ModelingIdeas for Future
} Super Modeling¦ One big model/interface that includes many models and all data¦ Limited to the models within the Super Model
} Modular and Plug & Play Modeling¦ Any number of models/modules could be added to the big model¦ Interfaces could talk to each other & link to models and data
} Cross Domain Modeling¦ Models in each domain should be capable of transferring data and/or
being employed by models in other domains¦ Modular and expandable
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21RIME
Integrated Databases
} Shared data source} Links to integrated models} Links to other databases} Distributed computing} Web enablement
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22RIME
Integrated Interfaces
} GIS Based} Web Based} Links to models and databases} Single Graphical User Interface
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23RIME
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) among eight Federal Agencies in 2001
} Cooperation in R&D of multimedia environmental models, software, and databases
} Pursue common technology} Protocols for linking disparate databases and models
under a common model-data framework.
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24RIME
EU Water Framework Directive
} Adopted in 2000} Focus is Integrated River Basin Management} Open Modeling Interface (OpemMI) that will
simplify the linking of hydrology related models.
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25RIME
OpenMI - HarmonIT Project(Open Modeling Interface, Plug & Play Modeling)
} Analogous to plug and play peripherals
Flow
SocioEcon
Ecology
Interface
Data
Interface••Model••••Database••
Interface••Model••••Database••
Interface•Model •
Data
Data
InterfaceInterfaceFlow
FlowEcology
EcologySocioEcon
SocioEcon
WQ
WQ
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26RIME
Everglades RestorationSearch for a Supermodel
} Driver¦ Integrated Watershed Management
} Supermodel or Assortment of Models?¦ Both approaches are pursued simultaneously¦ Tradeoffs between scale and level of detail¦ Dangers of oversimplification¦ Balance between complexity and over-parameterization
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27RIME
HydrosphereFully Integrated Surface/Subsurface, WQ, and Sedmentation
} Driver¦ Watershed Analysis
} Supermodel of Watershed?¦ One system of equations for surface, tile-drain, and
subsurface¦ Advective-dispersive transport¦ Temperature, DO, BOD and Erosion/Sedimentation
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28RIME
USGS & Bureau of Reclamation Cooperative Effort to Develop Database Centered DSS
} Combine USGS Modular Modeling System (MMS) and BOR RiverWare Tools
} Watershed and River System Management Program (WARSMP)
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29RIME
Snake River DSSConceptual Architecture
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Snake River Decision Support System
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31RIME
Enterprise Database
ManagementSystem
Field Data Collection• SCADA• Manual• Laboratory System• Other Sources
Data Collection Systems and Data Base
¸OROP¸ IHM Hydrologic Model¸ Demand Forecasting¸ Surface Water Models¸ Trade-off Analysis Model
Models and Analytical Tools
ÁOROP Production Schedule ÁData Analysis & EvaluationÁ ReportingÁQueriesÁModel Simulations
User Secure Access Modes
DSS Manager
Decision Support SystemTampa Bay, Florida
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32RIME
DSS Development Costs
} Snake River, Idaho¦ Multiple Phases (completed) – $4 million
} Tampa Bay, Florida¦ Phase I – Needs Assessment and Implementation Plan
($970,000 - 9 months)¦ Phase II (Ongoing) – Database re-design, DSS manager
application development, SCADA improvements ($16 million – multi-year)
} Colorado River, Colorado¦ Multiple Phases (ongoing) – $20 million
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Integration is said easier than done
} At a conceptual level, integration receives considerable support
} At a working level, there are numerous difficulties¦ Lack of ease of use¦ Lack of visible progress¦ Lack of immediate utility¦ Changing technology¦ Institutional issues¦ Costs – development and maintenance
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Change of Approach is Needed
} Design} Development} Implementation
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35RIME
Integration Challenges - Design
What We Have What We Need
• LLots of Data, Models, and Maps
• LLots of ways to look into those
• DData Access & Visualization• RRapid Comparative Analysis• OOn the Fly Analysis &
Synthesis• AAdhoc Queries• DDrill-down to more details
What Matters4Ease of Use4Time Efficiency 4Presentable to Managers/Stakeholders4Flexibility
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36RIME
Integration Challenges - Architecture
Institutional Setting Diverse Data & Models
• DData centralization may not a choice
• DData Replication is costly• OOrganizational change
• DData universe is unknown• DData standardization takes
too long• RRigid data rules make the
software brittle• CChanging models, analytical
tools
New Science4New knowledge, new data, new models4Resource interrelationships unfolding
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Successful Development Approach
} Open Architecture} No dependency on a single database or model} Mix of data centralization and distributed
computing} No dependency on proprietary technology} Evolutionary, flexible, and adaptable} Easy Maintenance
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38RIME
Successful Implementation Approach
User Feedback
User Feedback
Incremental Delivery
4DMS Configuration4User Involvement4Prioritize Data and
Features
AddMore
Modules
Deploy SelectedModules
(GW)
Add More Modules(SW data,
TMDL, others)
Close Association With Client, TAC, Member Agencies, Technical Specialists, Managers and Decision-Makers
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39RIME
Decision MakersManager
Technical StaffPublic
Integrated InformationEnvironment
DataManagement
Environment (DME)
Geographic InformationManagement
Environment (GME)
ModelManagement
Environment (MME)
GroundwaterQuality
GroundwaterLevels
POTWDischarge
Streamflow
AdditionalFuture Data
Surface WaterQuality
Maps
DEM Satellite
Graphs IGSM2Spreadsheet
ModelsPlanningModels
MODFLOW
Qual II-E
StatisticalModels
EconomicModels
OtherModels
Integrated Information Environment (IIE)A modular software architecture
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RIME
CALFED Integration and Visualization System
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CALFED Integration and Visualization System
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Summary
} Supermodeling¦ Oversimplified or overly complex¦ Cost – time and money
} Plug and Plays Models¦ Consistency of chosen models¦ More contentions
} Cross Domain Modeling¦ Flexible and adaptable¦ Needs successful integration approach
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Conclusions
} Integration is a necessity} Integration “always” is not a good approach} Define scope and scale of integration first} Avoid proprietary tools} Serve users – not technology} Deliver incrementally
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44RIME
We need a purpose-driven approach
} The purpose of a model is to support resource management decisions. All other truths on this subject are merely derivative.
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RIME
Questions?