Trends in Disaster Risk Reduction and

Emergency Management - the orthodox version -

David Alexander University College London

Resilience Resistance

Risk Susceptibility

Physical (including natural, built, technological)

Social (including cultural, political, economic

Environment Att

ribut

es

Source: McEntire 2001

Liabilities

Capa

bilities VULNERABILITY

Is this a fair reflection of disaster impacts?

YES: population is rising, especially in major hazard zones

YES: climate change is intensifying meteorological hazards

YES: polarisation and marginalisation are increasing the vulnerability of the poor

YES: fixed capital at risk is accumulating in hazard zones.

Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?

NO: very recent inclusion of indirect and hidden costs

NO: artificial inflation of cost estimates

NO: aggrandisement of disaster management institutions

NO: out of context with respect to world resources

NO: disaster is an economic stimulus.

Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?

• there are no "black swans"

• there are large and increasing areas of uncertainty caused by rising complexity

• applied science must constantly adapt itself its focus and methods to changes in hazard and societal vulnerability

• society's priorities and preoccupations change constantly over time.

Reality check

Treatment of uncertainty

known knowns - things we

know

Modified Rumsfeld Classification

unknown knowns - things we

don't realise we know

known unknowns - things we

know we don't know

unknown unknowns - things we

don't know we don't know

Knowledge accumulates and accretes. As it is not fixed over time,

neither is indeterminacy.

Cascading effects

Collateral vulnerability

Secondary disasters

Interaction between risks

Climate change

Probability

Indeterminacy

"Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions of impacts

DETERMINISM Cause Effect

PROBABILITY (constrained uncertainty)

Cause Single, multiple or cascading effects

THE KNOWN

THE UNKNOWN

PURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship

unknown

Grey area

Utilisation of research

MAGNITUDE & FREQUENCY

KNOWLEDGE SCIENCE

LEGISLATION

IMPLEMENTATION

COMPLIANCE

LAG

LAG

LAG

CUMULATIVE LAG

EVENTS

Social factors

Plan

Message

Technology Response

Perception

Culture

Optimisation

Evolution of fields and institutions

Learning processes

Improved safety

Lesson learned

Change and innovation

Experience and theory

Recognition and comprehension

Lesson to be learned

• Unexpected event

• New circumstance

• Error • New

practice

Active context

(members'

tools)

After: Argote and Spektor (2011)

Environmental context

Latent organisational context

Practical experience

Knowledge

Active organisational

context

Armed aggression on the part of states

Civil defence

Natural disasters

Civil protection

Armed aggression on the part of

groups of dissidents

"Homeland security" (civil defence)

"Generic" disasters

"Civil contingencies" (resilience)

Civil contingencies

Resilience

management

The risk environment

Business continuity

Civil protection

Civil defence

Civil Defence Civil Protection

Instability threats

Enhanced natural hazards

Complex hazards

Natural hazards

Evolving strategic situation

Large technological

hazards

Evolving climate change

'Na-tech' (hybrid) hazards

Major geophysical

events

Top-down

Bottom-up

Command function principle: command and control

model

Support function principle: collaborative and cooperation

model

Information technology

Management decisions

Integration of systems

Knowledge of community

vulnerability

Knowledge of hazards and their impacts

Knowledge of coping

capacity and resilience

Disaster Risk

Reduction

DRR

Organisational systems: management

Social systems: behaviour

Natural systems: function

Technical systems:

malfunction

Vulnerability Hazard

Resilienc

e

Political systems: decisions

Information and communications

technology

News and information

dissemination

Public participation in disaster risk reduction

Disaster research

Disaster management

Sustainability

Uncertain future:

long-term trends climate change capacity to adapt

Livelihoods: diversity

and security

Hazards and risks: disaster

preparedness

Governance: democratic participation in decision

making

RESILIENCE: managing risks

adapting to change securing resources

Varying context: • political • economic • social

STAGNATION RECONSTRUCTION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

SHORT-TERM RECOVERY

MEDIUM-TERM RECOVERY

LONG-TERM RECOVERY

IMPACT

P E S

P E S

P E S

RISKS daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc. major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change

SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction

resource consumption stewardship of the environment

economic activities lifestyles

SUSTAINABILITY

Conclusions

INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION

• mass media • targeted campaign • social networks

• internet

Augmentation

MASS EDUCATION PROGRAMME

SOCIAL CAPITAL

HABIT

CULTURE

The creation of a culture of civil protection

BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the people

MALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interests

interplay dialectic

Justification Development

[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]

IDEOLOGY CULTURE

• corruption and the black economy

• the arms trade, proxy wars and fomentation of conflict

• denial and curtailment of human and civil rights

• manufactured consent and the manipulation of politics

• governance must be participatory democracy.

Obstacles to progress in DRR:-

• the information technology revolution

• technology and command: seismic shift

• the socialisation of mass media: opportunity or complication?

• the Geldorf-Bono factor - who leads?

Adapting to a changing physical AND social world

• The opportunities for positive change have never been greater.

• Likewise, the tools and mechanisms.

• The obstacles have never been more formidable.

• Likewise, the challenges.

Disaster risk reduction: we are approaching a turning point in history

Thank you for your attention! david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk

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