• Low yields in future years due to soil degradation appear to be less important than high yields this year.

• Sustainability as a guiding principle in crop production is an attempt to transcend this mindset. – Consider not only what is good today, but what

will allow future generations to thrive, too.

Trends and Issues Affecting Plant Science

“We did not receive this land from our forefathers, we have borrowed it from our children.” An old African Proverb

Trends and Issues Affecting Plant Science

• Balanced energy and resource transfers among components of an ecosystem are central to stable, sustainable ecological relationships. – Crop production takes energy/resource inputs &

provides energy in food or embodied in nonfood commodities.

• Inputs create energy/resource imbalances because they are not recycled back into the system, but leave with the harvest, making the system unsustainable.

Domestic Trends and Issues - Farmland

Figure 1-4

Percentage of forested land and farm area in Ohio since European settlement. Source: Michael Knee.

Area of farmland has declined from its high point at the beginning of the 20th century.

Some of the increase comes from conversion and/or reversion of farmland to woodland

Figure 1-5

Woodland developing on land in Ohio that has not been farmed for 30 years. Source: Margaret McMahon, The Ohio State University.

In contrast to many other countries, the U.S. has seen an overall increase in area of woodland

Domestic Trends and Issues - Woodlands

Domestic Trends and Issues - Population

• U.S. population increase during the last century was mainly in urban areas—rural population decreased in relative terms from 60% in 1900 to 25% in 2000. – Increases were most marked in the coastal states, the

East and West, and along the shores of the Great Lakes.

Domestic Trends and Issues - Population

• Although classed as urban development, it is more accurate to call it suburban—average lot sizes for new homes are about 0.15 hectare, or 0.4 acre. – The lifestyle of the suburbs depends on personal

transportation for access to work, shops, and leisure. • Which accounts for much of our energy demand.

Domestic Trends and Issues - Population

• Many have criticized this and other aspects of suburban sprawl, but it leads to new opportunities.

– New homes are an expanding market for landscape supplies and services.-76 bn (2015) industry

– Farms can market directly to the surrounding population.

• Families can visit to the local farm to buy/pick their produce.

– Golf = about ⅔ of major crop sales and involves 12% of the U.S. population.

Domestic Trends and Issues - Population

Two major trends that will affect crop production and the global environment are the increases in

human population and energy use.

After two centuries of exponential growth, world population shows signs of stabilizing at about 9 billion in 2050.

Global Trends and Issues - Nutrition

• The USDA 2007 Food Security Assessment reports the number of people consuming less than 2,100 calories per day in 70 lower income countries rose from 849 to 982 million between 2006 to 2007.

• 0.2 ha of land needed to feed an adult (plant-

based diet)- What about when the world population reaches 8 billion.

Global Trends and Issues - China

• A major challenge to the world’s food supply. – 20% of world population – Less than 7% of world cropland – About 0.08. ha/adult – Fertilizer use is high & increases will not bring much

additional yield. – Nutrient pollution & soil degradation problems – Agricultural land is shrinking-urban development – Grain-fed meat production is increasing -increasing land

required to meet its dietary needs – China is likely to be a major U.S. agricultural customer.

• China’s demand may raise prices of agricultural commodities, which is good news for U.S. producers.

Global Trends and Issues - Energy

• A 50% increase in global energy use is expected over the next fifty years- fossil fuels.

• The oil reserves will last about 40 years- if we current consumption.

• Natural gas reserves are at about 60 years- not much in the U.S.

• The coal reserves are about 200 years- consumption rising, low grade, high polluting, located in environmentally protected areas.

Global Trends and Issues - CO2

• With increased use of fossil fuels: – CO 2 ↑, gaseous pollutants ↑ – Global warming – Productivity of some crops ↑ with rising CO2 (as long

as rainfall patterns are not disrupted. – High temperatures →decreases in yields of many

crops – Air pollutants → more damage to crops and wild

plants.

Global Trends and Issues - Biomass Energy

• Global energy demand is a fraction of the energy captured in photosynthesis and stored in plants. – Increase plant biomass – Increase plant biomass use: biofuels – Increase plant biomass use efficiency The solution is:

• Sustainable production of biofuels as a source of energy supply – Changes in land use & planning – Investment in equipment for conversion of biomass to usable

fuels.

Global Trends and Issues - Other Impacts

• Demand for food and fuel is leading to deforestation in many tropical countries (major sink, or depository, for the CO2 we generate through our fossil fuel consumption)- ↑ atmospheric CO2.

9 Loss of 100 mil2 of rain forest / day 9 Loss of biodiversity(three species / hour) 9 Loss of 4600 acres of public land/day to noxious weeds in western USA 9 Loss of 53% of wetlands in 48 states 9 Brownfields: 450,000 sites 9 Island: Shrinking 3 sq. km(1.15 sq. miles)/year 9Sahara(Africa) desertification 3-4 miles/yr southward 9 Close to home: Mono Lake, Folsom Lake, …

Population growth, industrialization, urban sprawl, advances in technology, and environmental pollution

Global Trends and Issues - Globalization

• International trade expansion is removing tariffs and duties restricting imports of food & commodities. – Industrial nations are under pressure to eliminate

subsidies that favor their own producers. How about profitability!

• A side effect of globalization of trade is that pests & diseases are spread around the world more easily. – Such as introduction of the Emerald Ash Borer

(Agrilus planipennis) into the Great Lakes region from China.

Global Trends and Issues - Globalization

• Bioterrorism is a recent, major threat to agriculture. – Terrorists may be able to introduce pests/chemicals

to destroy a good portion of crop production in certain areas.

• Quarantines and restrictions to free trade may increase.

• In 2003/2004, some U.S. geranium growers were ordered to destroy much of their crop from abroad.(Imported unintentially) – It was infested with Ralstonia solanacearum(soil borne

bacteria), listed in the Agriculture Bioterrorism Act of 2002.

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - Costs

• Plant scientists study ways to improve crop productivity in a cost-effective way. – Some practices may have negative effects on the environment.

• Plant scientists have to find ways to meet our need for food, fuel, and other products and services from plants without negatively affecting the environment.

• In calculating cost-effectiveness of production, costs can no longer include just material and labor costs. – Cost to repair any resulting environmental damage

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - Genetics

• Genetically engineered plants, sometimes called genetically modified organisms (GMOs), can greatly reduce need for pesticides & field tillage. – Pesticide runoff and erosion are reduced, which is beneficial for

the environment.

• There is concern that traits from GMOs will “escape” to be part of wild/native plant populations. – The fear is that wild plants with these traits may

have serious negative impacts on the ecosystem.

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - Organics

• Organic farming has been proposed as a solution to problems of crop production/ environmental impact. – It does not allow the use of GMOs and certain types

of chemicals for pest control and fertilization.

• Although successful, it is not known if organic farming can produce quantities of crop products needed in today’s world. - An estimated 6.5 billion people depend on cultivated

plants for nourishment & quality in their lives- we cannot survive as hunters and gatherers.

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - Genetics

• To make herbicides more effective & reduce amount used, GMOs resistant to Roundup® were developed. – Weeds are susceptible to the chemical—but

Roundup Ready® crops are resistant.

• Genetically modified corn (Bt®) synthesizes naturally occurring protein lethal to species of Lepidoptera. – Production of a natural larval toxin has reduced the

need to spray insecticides for control of a very destructive pest.

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - Genetics

• Rice has been genetically modified to produce beta-carotene (vitamin A) in the grain (golden rice). – Predicted to save the eyesight of children in areas

where vitamin A deficiency causes blindness.

• Improvements come with their own issues. – High-oil corn bred to replace petrochemicals may

replace some food crops. – No- or low-till farming reduces labor costs & is less

detrimental to soil—but uses herbicides to control weeds.

Meeting Challenges in Plant Science - More Genetics

• The public has shown negative responses to GMOs. – There is fear the Roundup Ready® gene will escape,

and create resistant weeds.

– Golden rice cannot be grown in many areas due to fear of the beta-carotene gene escaping into the traditional crop.

– Flavr Savr® tomatoes have disappeared from the market out of fear of what the altered gene would do if consumed.