Trend Report Gemma

Introduction

Within the fashion industry, trend forecasters and forecasting companies such as WGSN and Mudpie play a vital role, determining what the global populations will be wearing in future years. They do this by establishing the ‘zeitgeist’, the taste and outlook characteristic of a generation or era.

Within the zeitgeist research are factors currently ongoing around the globe that will ultimately have a sizeable affect on the fashion industry and how it operates. The major affecting factors cover political, economical, social, technologic and environmental issues.

Forecasters then begin to find common ‘threads’ within the main trend driver factors. The threads can include repeating themes, topics or images which when placed together begin to depict a particular trend. They will then continue to identify the trend’s innovators who progress the trend further and sell it to a wider audience.

They key PESTE factors taking place currently globally will have a delayed affect on the fashion industry in 2016. It will affect how fashion businesses operate as well as which direction trends will take in four years time.

The Introduction of ‘Carbon Tax’

In a bid to cut green house gas emissions and fight climate change, Mr George Osborne has revealed plans to introduce a “top-‐up tax” on all carbon used within the UK. The ‘Carbon Price Floor’ plan is due to come into effect as soon as next year.

In his 2011 budget, Mr Osborne indicated that prices of carbon for 2014-‐2015 would be £7.28 per tonne of carbon. Since then market price for carbon has fallen, however, the ‘top-‐up’ tax will increase this to £10 per tonne of CO2 in 2014-‐2015. According to the manufacturers organisation EEF, this rise would push industrial and electricity prices up and could cost the UK economy approximately an extra £300m.

Effect on Fashion in 2016

Today’s textile/fashion industry is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gasses. Production of materials and fabrics used in manufacturing incur the use of carbon, this is seen particularly in synthetic products, which require fibres that are made from fossil fuels by extracting oil from the ground.

British brands and brands that manufacture in the UK will now need to pay a tax on the carbon they use.

British brands will face higher production, transport and delivery costs and may force other fashion brands that produce in the UK to go elsewhere to manufacture their products. The use of synthetic materials may be reduced to just luxury brands that can afford to take on the extra carbon taxes and the prices of mass fast fashion products could increase, to pass the carbon tax prices onto their consumers to allow the brands to continue manufacturing as normal.

Tax Cuts on the middle-class Americans

Mr Obama is suggesting tax cuts for families making less than $250,000 a year, however he wants reduced tax rates for families, individuals and businesses earning more than that to end. If Congress does not act before the ‘fiscal cliff’ automatically happens, the typical middle class family will see their taxes rise by $2,200 next year, negatively impacting businesses and retailers across the nation.

Obama wants the top income tax rate, which now stands at 35%, to return to the 39.6% it was at before the George Bush cuts. The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimates that consumers could spend nearly $200 billion less than they otherwise would have just because of increased taxes.

Effects on Fashion in 2016

In order to reduce national deficits around the world, governments world wide are beginning to introduce new taxes and increase ones that stand currently.

This extra money needs to be paid by individuals out of their wages, as a result their levels of disposable income will be reduced. The economy will only improve if consumers are spending to supply the fashion industry with money to grow and improve. With less disposable income consumers will be buying cheaper or less clothing, preferring to purchase key staple items rather than following various specific fashion trends in 2016. Brands may have to alter the garments that form the trend to be more wearable for multiple occasions to keep profits as high as possible.

The recession and consumer confidence

The double dip recession within the UK has affected consumer confidence and spending behaviours. Prospects of a sustained rise in high street activity lifting the economy out of the recession were dealt a blow with news the consumer confidence is stuck at a low ebb.

Nick Moon, Director of one of the worlds leading market research companies, GfK said, “This is the third month in a row the Index has not changed… all attempts by the government to improve the UK’s situation aren’t making impressions on the public mood”(GfK, 2012)

China is one of just a few countries that seem to have ridden out the recession that has spread globally, however a report published by Bain & Company (consultancy company) states luxury sales growth in China has started to slow. Consumer spending on luxury apparel and accessories is expected to climb 8% in 2012 yet this is dramatically lower than last years 30%.

Effects on fashion in 2016

Even though the UK is beginning to show signs of emerging from the double dip recession, the fact the country entered into it for a second time has damaged consumer confidence to spend their lowered disposable incomes on fashion in case of another damaging dip in the economy.

The retail sector will only improve if consumers regain their confidence to spend to put money back into the industry. If this vicious circle continues into 2016, consumers will be opting for fast fashion brands, as they are largely cheaper even though they are poorer quality than what more luxurious brands offer.

Overconsumption and Wasteful attitudes

The recent increase of fast fashion stores with its low price point products and consistently developing technology has lead to the public being able to buy more products more frequently to follow shorter phased trends.

This constant need for newer products has created an insatiable attitude amongst populations. The constant upgrades to newer products means more ‘old’ products, only bought a short time ago, are discarded.


As consumers are discarding fast fashion garments more frequently land fills are filling up quicker than expected. This has a damaging effect on the environment and climate change. If quick lead times within fast fashion companies and the addiction to buying cheap trend lead products continues into 2016, the cotton industry may not be able to supply the fashion brands with such high demands.

Eventually the quick lead times of fast fashion companies along with the consumer compulsion to buy into cheap trend lead products may cause shortages within the cotton and textile industries. The rate of consumption and disposal could soon begin to overweigh the rate of production as only so much yield of crops can be grown per year.

Robots in demand as labour costs climb in China

It has been published that China is looking into using industry robots within its factories to reduce labour costs. China has the potential to become the world’s largest consumer of industrial robots by 2014 (Federation of Robotics, 2012).

The cause for the need of robotics is due to the shifting demographics of the country as China’s working age population is shrinking which has subsequently increased labour costs. China’s one-‐child policy and improved medical care system means there are fewer younger workers to employ and older generations who need care.

The young Chinese are seeking skilled, high paid work to support their longer living parents. They are better educated than their forebears and less interested in assembly line labour. This is where robots may have to fill the unwanted jobs left behind.


Without the implementation of robots, factory workers will begin to demand more money as they take on an increased workload due to employee shortages.

The cost of introducing robotics would be high to begin with, this would be a one off charge whereas employees need regular monthly wage payments. In the long run, production could be cheaper, widening profit margins for fashion brands to increase annual turnover. Robots also have the energy efficiency and ability to perform operations humans would find near impossible, making more technical and identical manufacturing more accessible within industry.

Forest Fires- Humans as well as Mother Nature to blame

By the time fire season was over in Idaho this year, 1.713 million acres of forest and grasslands were burnt and charred. This was the worst year for fires for the state since 2007.

Dave Olsen, Boise National Forest spokesman said, “By the end of the summer, our conditions were just as dry this year as they were in 2007. It could have been much worse if we had a typical amount of lightening. Our biggest problems, by far, were human-‐caused”.

The start of the Idaho fire this year was caused by a burning utility vehicle. The blaze eventually destroyed 146.000 acres of The Boise Natural Forest.


This could have an effect on fashion in 2016 as more cotton producing locations could be hit with extreme weather; yield is destroyed and therefore unusable. This can increase the price of sparse cotton as well as preventing it being delivered to factories in order for manufacturing to commence. This delay will then postpone the product reaching the stores to make profits.

The lavish, wasteful lifestyles the majority of the world’s population live are also aiding the destruction of nature. Humans will need to make greener, more ethical choices to save the environment we are in control of. If we do not do so 2016’s fashion industry could see less yields for textile production and increased costs to re-‐build poorer countries where yield producing farms and fashion factories are located.

“The control man has

secured over nature has far

outrun his control over

himself” -Ernest Jones

‘Toxic Threads’ study finds high levels of dangerous chemicals in popular brands

Greenpeace has carried out research this year into well-‐known fashion brands after it being discovered they may contain chemicals harmful to our health.

In April this year, Greenpeace purchased 141 items from 20 global fashion brands across 29 countries. These garments had been manufactured in at least 18 different countries and were all made from both synthetic and natural materials. In doing so, high levels of cancer-‐causing chemicals were discovered in four garments while nonylphenol ethoxylates (banned chemical in the US) were found in 89 garments, 63% of those tested.

Greenpeace published toxin results for Giorgio Armani, Calvin Klein and Zara whose garments contained some of the highest concentrations of the hazardous chemicals and linked them to the phenomena ‘fast fashion’. The quick turnaround, short deadlines and consequently cut corners lead to unsafe production that included the chemicals in question.


Fashion brands within the fashion industry may chose to use more ethical manufacturing methods and chemicals, meaning fashion in 2016 could become greener and safer with increased use of natural fibre garments.

Restrictions, guidelines and potentially new laws could be introduced to reduce chemicals being used within the industry. However, if this issue is not followed up, materials used in fashion of 2016 could be lower in quality and dangerous to humans as well as the environment

1.Humans and Robots join forces

With high manufacturing demands in China and its ‘one-‐child’ policy, the country is beginning to notice a shortage of assembly line workers within its factories. China’s consideration to introduce robotics to the factories will replace all unwanted laborious jobs. With 9 million robots working in the world, and 4 million+ more scheduled to arrive next year, we’re clearly entering into a new age of automation(Aaron Saenz, 2011), creating the mechanical colleagues of the future.

Jiqiren-‐ in Chinese -‐ “mechanical people” have proliferated in China, many of them homegrown. The launch of robotics within the work environment can increase technical abilities, the ability to carry out microscopic operations and undertake tasks in fine detail. Humans are taking advantage of increased technology to combine human and robotic capabilities to form ‘Super-‐Beings’.

The energy efficient mechanical beings create the anticipation of relentless labor and a 24-‐hour existence. This gives hope of a world with fewer day-‐to-‐day endeavors, where the word ‘impossible’ no longer prevails.

“The danger of

the past was

that men

became slaves.

The danger of

the future is

that man may

become robots.” -Erich Fromm

2. Exoskeleton Bionic Suits With super hero movies on the increase, it would have been thought near impossible to recreate the Iron Man suit, a powdered exoskeleton exterior worn by a human being. However with today’s technology exactly that has been created, not to fight crime and defend planet Earth but to improve the life of the bearer. The life of Mike Loura was transformed after he stepped into the ‘Ekso Bionics Robotic Exoskeleton’ earlier this year. The network of hidden mechanics worn around the body re-‐enabled mobility and restored human efficiency. Varying degrees of exoskeletons have been produced, sleek designs aiding humans in every day life to heavy duty suits designed to be worn by U.S Army soldiers to carry out duties including lifting hundreds of pounds of ammunition and cargo. Through cunning mechanical engineering intensified human dexterities are now accessible to man.

3. Prosthetic Awareness

Summer 2012, saw the most viewed Olympic and Paralympics games in recent history with record ticket sales and millions watching on television. The Paralympics closing ceremony saw a television audience peak at 7.7million viewers, the highest ratings recorded for a paralympic event. The successes of the paralympians within their individual sporting areas raised interest surrounding the mechanical prosthetic limbs worn by many of the competing athletes.

“We’re already at the era where prosthetics can outstrip human performance. With the developments being made in things like powered knees and ankle joints, athletes will soon be flying down the track”, (D. James Sheffield Hallam University, 2012). By adding mechanical robotics to talented individuals, they have the overriding advantage to overcome injuries and challenge able bodied others.

High performance prosthetics used in sporting activities are made from carbon fiber material, lightweight and flexible with all machinery visible for it to perform to its best ability. However, in everyday life those that use prosthetic limbs often opt for flesh toned false limbs. Robot mechanics and anatomy features have been incorporated together to create lifelike limbs. You may say this is to disguise the fact that in some way they are disabled, or is this our way of concealing how dependent we are on technology, and how we are attempting to take the credit for its achievements?

The evolving world of technology has slowly captivated populations over many years, with new products released monthly. The desire for new products to help us with everyday life has left us consumed into the digital world, constantly awaiting the next new ‘must have’ discovery.

4. Immersive Gaming

Immersive gaming came into play when driving games were introduced into arcades with sport seats and steering wheels. The large screens in front of the driver with surround sound speakers bought the gamer out of the real world and into the drag race. This became the first basic form of immersive gaming, which has been developing ever since.

The commandeering nature of this new type of gaming became popular quickly and entered households world wide when the ‘Wii’ was released in late 2006. This enabled the consumer’s movement to be imitated by the machine and appear on television screens. Similarly, in 2010 Xbox released the Xbox Kinect, a motion sensing input device for the Xbox 360, which enables the user to control and interact wirelessly through natural user interface using gestures and spoken commands.

Designers are looking at taking this concept of bringing real life and the digital life together further by a new product named the ‘XIO’ (zee-‐oh). The product is designed to be worn around the arm, taking already proven motion controls and adding the sense of touch. This will create a highly sensitive gaming experience where the player will feel like they have entered the digital world. The product is in the process of developing prototypes and will be released once complete in the near future.

The idea of the digital world with advancing technologies and mechanics bringing life into gaming has influenced the trend, Robotika. New mechanical products designed to be spoken to and worn around the body to immerse humans into an artificial world of crime fighting ‘super humans’ shows how robotics and humans are conforming in every day life.

5. 3D Technology Three-‐dimensional technology on the other hand, has enabled the digital world to reach out to humans. This began with retro ‘anaglyph’ paper 3D glasses; they were released with television guide magazines and newspapers when a 3D film or program was due to be aired that week. In recent years, 3D films have been released in cinemas, now the majority of blockbuster films are released in both 2D and 3D viewings. 3D technology has now begun entering homes around the world through new age televisions, which allow personal 3D experiences using wireless glasses and soon the complete removal of glasses. This shows how we are not only entering a digital world through gaming technology, but it is entering our environment through 3D images on the big screen as well as the small. If such technologies continue to develop into 2016 the divide between human life, robotics and machinery may have narrowed completely.

1. The cost of Climate Change

Global warming is the major factor to blame for Climate Change. But it is humans who have increased the disregard for the environment, which in turn has amplified global warming levels contributing to the adverse weather systems involved in the planet becoming warmer.

Extreme weather conditions including droughts, flooding, cyclones and severe storms are beginning to have an affect on the fashion industry, more specifically its manufacturing and production. Balanced weather conditions are crucial for productive agriculture and irrigation to continue, if the weather begins to fluctuate erratically, yields, such as cotton and wool, may be reduced or even damaged. This in turn results in soaring commodity prices and product prices.

Access to raw materials is likely to become increasingly constrained due to water supplies progressively becoming scarcer and pesticides becoming more expensive. This may lead to stricter legislations regarding water usage, to make the usage as efficient and necessary as possible so larger volumes of clean drinking water are available in poorer deprived countries.

To keep up with high consumer demands, large scale farming for wools and leathers have also had a damaging affect on the environment increasing fashions carbon footprint. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane gas are all produced. This type of farming that has become the norm due to hyper-‐consumption within fast fashion, adds to the damaging global warming cycle affecting the weather systems.

All of these contributing factors may see the production of clothing particularly in the fast fashion sector depreciate slightly. We will see consumers retaining their clothing for longer, and because a large percentage will have been from fast fashion brands the quality will become poorer quicker and new products that are bought may have lower qualities due to damaged yields.

2. Will society’s attitude change?

We live in an over indulgent world, where consumers do not want but ‘need’ new products and they need them now. This attitude amongst societies particularly within western populations is hardly surprising as markets, especially technology markets, are supplying new or improved, more advanced products monthly.

An element of competition is seen between the consumers to have the best products in their possession. This often incurs wasteful decisions to discard ‘older’ products to replace them with the new.

“Nature has come to be regarded as something to be used and enjoyed to the fullest extent possible. Rather than being like a married woman from whom a man benefits but also towards whom he is responsible, nature has become like a prostitute -‐-‐ to be benefited from without any sense of obligation and responsibility toward her."(Seyyed Hossein Nasr, 2012)

As landfills amass millions of tons of clothing annually, and as charity stores are swamped with the castoffs of our hyper-‐consumption, experts say the best way to reduce our planetary impact isn’t by changing outfits. It’s by overhauling our attitudes. (psmag.com, 2008)

3. Patchwork Planet

Consumer behavior regarding mass consumption due to fast fashion clothing has seen throwaway societies being created. Consumers of today think nothing of disposing of worn, thread bare clothing as they are aware they can visit the high street to replace such items for very little money. Such attitudes have seen masses of clothing thrown away with fashion companies and more importantly raw material farms finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with the high demands.

Prices for clothing have become cheaper and cheaper with retailers pushing margins and suppliers. The drastic reduction in prices has seen a devaluation in how we see and feel about the clothes we own. The ‘Make Do and Mend’ attitude became a trend during the war, when clothing items were rationed. The such little coupons received per person to exchange for clothing saw women across the country sewing, re-‐knitting and darning garments to make the poor quality clothing last longer.

With the poor economic climate currently, with chances of a triple dip recession constantly looming, consumers are being more conservative when it comes to spending their reduced disposable incomes. This is where the cycle continues-‐ buying into fast fashion because of its lower price points, however having to repair or dispose of the garments shortly later due to low quality.

Humans will see their clothing quality levels depreciate in the future, this partly down to their gluttonous desires for throwaway fashion and blatant disregard for the environment. Pollutants from excessive living will reduce the quality of raw materials available to the fashion industry, leaving consumers having to live with poor, shabby quality clothing due to their own wasteful habits.

Conclusion

To conclude, it is clear from the PESTE factors currently occurring around the world, along with several key drivers that two potential trends may emerge in fashion in 2016.

The elements of technology we are beginning to see today show how fashion can evolve in the future. The introduction of robotic workers into human territory and humans entering digital worlds through new advanced technology, has created the idea that humans and robots will conform together to create superior beings with endless capabilities. Clothing will be cutting edge, with emphasis on human anatomy combined with the intricate mechanics of robots.

The reckless behaviour regarding the environment that has worsened over recent years as well as high levels of clothing consumption has begun to destroy the planet we live on. In the future, humans could see themselves living in a destroyed world, which they ruined themselves through gluttony and carelessness. Clothing will be of poor quality, ‘made to mend’ containing toxic chemicals and consisting of poor textures.

Report Images

• [Online] Available at: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jr3UA4lEMLI/TU5uFoBmL9I/AAAAAAAAADo/ [Accessed 8.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://mydeco.com/blog/wp-‐content/uploads/2011/04/trend-‐bible-‐image-‐moodboards.jpg [Accessed 8.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/carbon+foot+print [Accessed 7.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://mikeely.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/obama_and_american_flag.jpg [Accessed 9.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.debtonation.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2011/05/broken_piggy_bank.jpg [Accessed 9.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/images/i-‐robot-‐2004-‐42-‐g1.jpg [Accessed 10.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.blacksmoke.org/albums/project/Jonas_Akerlund.sized.jpg, [Accessed 12.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.catwalkqueen.tv/SHWOPLABJOANNALUMLEY.jpg [Accessed 12.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.ecouterre.com/greenpeace-‐exposes-‐toxic-‐chemicals-‐in-‐zara-‐other-‐fast-‐fashion-‐brands/ [Accessed 13.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_me7tpvekkc1rttmwfo1_500.jpg [Accessed 15.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://4youtechnology.com/wp-‐content/uploads/2012/11/nature-‐technology.jpg [Accessed 15.11.12]

‘Robotika’ Trend Driver Images

• [Online] Available at: http://www.product-‐reviews.net/wp-‐content/userimages/2008/02/manvsmachine.jpg [Accessed 7.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-‐7plI9w4igSg/Tk0R8Br6srI/AAAAAAAA-‐C8/ULIBiFXB9QI/s640/Half_robot_cool_photomanipulations_by_daniele_gay_7.jpg [Accessed 8.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/futuristic [Accessed 3.12.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8f487PKY81r84otoo1_500.jpg [Accessed 2.12.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-‐OyiledN9deA/TZZDmyV9bhI/AAAAAAAABWo/XoMCAuG2Dtw/s1600/5473-‐800w.jpg [Accessed 2.12.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcvrctN3Gt1rttmwfo1_500.jpg [Accessed 30.11.12]

• [Online] Available at: http://www5.picturepush.com/photo/a/8556093/img/8556093.png [Accessed 30.11.12]

‘Eradicated Earth’ Trend Driver Images

• [Online] Available at: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/extreme+weather [Accessed 1.12.12] • [Online] Available at: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/drought [Accessed 1.12.12] • [Online] Available at: http://collabcubed.com/2011/12/14/claire-‐fontaine-‐matchstick-‐art/ [Accessed 30.11.12] • [Online] Available at: http://cdn.trendhunterstatic.com/phpthumbnails/145/145444/145444_1_468c.jpeg [Accessed 30.11.12]

References (Cited)

• N. Moon, 2012, ‘July sees no change to the UK’s Consumer Confidence’ [online] Available at:http://www.gfk.com/group/press_information/press_releases/010139/index.en.html [Accessed 17.11.12]

• Federation of robotics, 2012, ‘Robots in demand in China as labour costs climb’ [online] Available at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/13/robots-‐demand-‐china-‐labour-‐costs/print [Accessed 18.11.12]

• D. Olsen, 2012, ‘Humans not mother nature, behind Idaho’s record forest fires’ [online] Available at: http://www.firehouse.com/news/10831836/humans-‐not-‐mother-‐nature-‐behind-‐idahos-‐record-‐forest-‐fires [Accessed 23.11.12]

• A Saenz, 2011, ‘Robotic labour taking over the world? You bet-‐ here are the details’, [online] Available at: http://singularityhub.com/2011/09/12/robotic-‐labor-‐taking-‐over-‐the-‐world-‐you-‐bet-‐here-‐are-‐the-‐details/ [Accessed 21.11.12]

• D James, 2012, ‘Paralympians to out-‐perform able-‐bodied soon thanks to prosthetic advances’ [online] Available at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/othersports/article-‐2194654/London-‐Paralympics-‐2012-‐Prosthetics-‐perform-‐able-‐bodied-‐soon-‐say-‐experts.html [Accessed 16.11.12]

Resources

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Resources (Continued)

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‘Army exoskeleton suit gives man superhuman strength’ [online] Available at: http://singularityhub.com/2009/06/11/army-‐exoskeleton-‐suit-‐gives-‐man-‐superhuman-‐strength/ [Accessed 13.11.12]

‘The heartwarming moment a robotic body suit enables a paralyzed man to walk again’[online] Available at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-‐2231620/Robotic-‐body-‐suit-‐enables-‐paralyzed-‐man-‐walk-‐again.html [13.11.12]

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‘Adding the sense of touch to motion control’ [online] Available at: http://www.novint.com/index.php/products/novintxio [Accessed 23.11.12]

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Resources (Continued)

‘Fashion Futures 20125’ [online] Available at: http://www.forumforthefuture.org/sites/default/files/images/Forum/Projects/Fashion-‐Futures/FashionFutures_2025_FINAL_SML.pdf [Accessed 27.11.12]

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‘Kinect’ [online] Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinect [Accessed 22.11.12]

Trend Forecasting Visual Report Gemma Hagan

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Trend Report Gemma

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