Trend. Navigation. Designing the way into the future. · Trend. Navigation. Designing the way into...
Transcript of Trend. Navigation. Designing the way into the future. · Trend. Navigation. Designing the way into...
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Trend navigationMeta-trendMedia revolution
SustainabilityGlobalisationOrientationSemioticsScience or art
Visual grammarDesigner’s role
Content
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Trend
[engl.] m,
1. Common: Direction of a development, general direction, e.g. inincome, fashion, voters opinions …
2. Statistics: Component of a time line that has evolutionary, lastingand sustainable effect and expresses the general direction of atimeline. Besides a trend, cyclic or seasonal movements have to beconsidered.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Navigation
[latin] f,
Process of leading from a given position on a defined course to an aimedposition, including all necessary methods of measuring and calculatingto define the point of origin and the course.
© 2003 Bibliographisches Institut & F. A. Brockhaus AG
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Trendnavigation
Basing on known facts of the past one can derive future scenarios.Information design visualises the development.
Trend development
ScenarioNavigation Point
Pres
ent
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
trend relevant factors
Change of Meta-trend
1
Media revolution
2
Globalisation
4
EconomySociety
TechnologySocietyCulture
EnergyEconomyEcology
CultureEconomySociety
Crisis of resources
3
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
meta-trend
Long lasting cultural and economic cycles.
We are witnessing at the moment the transition of two meta-trends.Such an event takes place approximately every 50 years.Society and economy have to find and follow new ways.
Values have to become redefined.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Kondratjew
Kondratjew, Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch, Russian economist,*4.3.1892, †1938 (?);
Founder and 1920-28 director of the institute of economic cycles in Moscow;known a.o. because of the discovery of long-term economic cycles, later byJ.A. Schumpeter called Kondratieff-Cycles.
Kondratjew, opposed against the complete collectivisation of the agricultureand the disproportional development of the industry and agriculture becamesentenced to 8 years prison 1931 and to death 1938.
© 2003 Bibliographisches Institut & F. A. Brockhaus AG
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Kondratjew cycles
1800
1860
1910
1950
1980
2010
steam enginetextile industry
clothing
1. Kondratieff
railwayssteel industry
transport
2. Kondratieff
electronicschemicals
mass consumption
3. Kondratieff
automotive industrypetrochemicals
individual mobility
4. Kondratieff
informationtechnology
globalisationcommunication
5. Kondratieff
psychosocialhealth
usewellness
6. Kondratieff
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
meta-trend development
ideological mass-productionmaterialistic mass-consumptionimmaterial individual use
: )
:(1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2000 10 20 30 40 50
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
the designers role
Designers always played a significant role in helping to exploit the meta trend.It is now our task to identify, visualise and show the new trend.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Ken Olsen, President of DEC about the use of computers in the future in 1977.
There is no reason why anyone could want to have a computer in his home.I don’t think we want our personal life run by computer.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
media revolution
A media revolution does not start with an idea or the marketing of a newmedium but with the capability to understand and use it. (Media literacy).
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
media revolution
It took several hundred years until Gutenberg's revolution was fruitful.There was a simple reason for it: In those days, less than 5% of thepopulation was literate and able to read or write.
As the first printed items imitated the hand written book, we still copy 25years after DTP and 10 years after internet Gutenberg's paper age.
We are facing the fourth media revolution in the history of mankind. It willhappen faster than the predecessors.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
media revolution
15.000 bC
the image
1
3.000 bC
the script
2
1.450 aC
industrialisationof media
3
2.000 aC
digitalising of media
4
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Unlimited growth on our limited earth is not possible.
We will reach our limits soon.We have to do something about it.And we can do something about it.
Club of Rome 1972 Limits of Growth
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Hanns Carl von Carlowitz(P. 105-106 in the „Sylvicultura Oeconomica“1713).
Thus the biggest art/science/ assiduity and establishment of ourcountries shall depend on / … /that there shall be a continuouslasting and sustainable use / because it is an indispensablematter / without it the land will not remain in its being.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Typical for the leaving trend of material mass consumption was acareless treatment of the global resources. Especially those areasdepending on petrol are facing increasing problems.
We are forced to look for new and sustainable concepts to avoid aupcoming catastrophic development.
A positive side effect could be the solution of ecologic issues.
crisis of resources, of energy, of ecology
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
the ecologic foot print
the world we have the world we needed the world Europe needs
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
The globally available area to supply the human needs is exceeded 23% intotal.
We require worldwide at present consumption 2.2 ha per person, but we onlyhave 1.8ha available.
Europe requires 4,7 ha per person but can only supply 2.3ha.This means an overstraining of the European bio-capacity for more than 100%.
the ecologic foot print
Worldavailable 1,8 harequired 2,2 ha
Europeavailable 2,3 harequired 4,7 ha
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
The ecologic footprint is the equivalent area of productive land and aquaticeco-systems needed to produce the necessary resources and deposit therelated waste, consumed by a defined population with a defined material lifestandard, wherever this land may be.
the ecologic foot print
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
resource static index increase exponential index exp. endwith existing reserves p.y.approx. with existing reserves with estimateduntil until 5x reserves
molybdenum 2051 4.5 % 2006 2037
natural gas 2010 4.7 % 1994 2021
nickel 2122 3.4 % 2025 2068
crude oil 2003 3.9 % 1992 2022
platinum group 2102 3.8 % 2019 2057
silver 1988 2.7 % 1985 2014
tin 1989 1.1 % 1987 2033
wolfram 2012 2.5 % 2000 2044
zinc 1995 2.9 % 1990 2022
the world reserves on resources
Source: Club of Rome 1972
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Oil peak
Oil prospecting, reserves knownestimated
Oil production
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 20500
10
20
30
40
50
Gb/y
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Crude oil price
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
10
20
30
40
50
$/B
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Sustainability can be achieved through simultaneous and equal application ofecologic, social and economic aims.These three dimensions can be valued differently.
3-column-model
ecol
ogy
econ
omyso
ciet
y
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Design has played and still plays a responsible role in heating up thecareless mass consumption.
But design could be a distinguished tool to develop sustainable concepts,provided we understand design as process oriented societal function.
Design is the key to sustainable thinking.Design for life instead design for business.
Process precedes product.
Design and sustainability
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Think global, act local.Visual Communication Design visualises culture.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
We are witnessing a transformation of which new forms of politics andeconomy will arise. There will be no longer national products andtechnologies, no national companies, no national industries.
It will be the end of national economics.
Robert B. Reich, former US-minister for labour
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Globalisation is not primarily an economic or logistic task.Globalisation is a cultural challenge.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Domination of one culture
Globalisation
Scenario 1
Several attempts during history:
Rome failure after collapseEngland failure after collapseGermany failure after defeatUSA
Superiority complex of one culture, mainly due tolack of knowledge and lack of respect for others.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Clash of culturesScenario 2
Globalisation
e.g.
9-11Mohammed cartoons
Happens due to lack of global concept anddisrespecting other points of view.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Scenario 3 Merge of cultures
Globalisation
GrafittiHip hop
Esperanto
Needs agreement about one global culture.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Scenario 4 Synergy of cultures
Globalisation
Cooperation of cultures.Exchange of values.Cultural pride in harmony with mutual respect.
Needs an active global communication concept.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Orientation
Orientation is a primary instinct and inherent necessity, comparableand in relation to the necessity of safety and order.
Without orientation it is impossible to survive:
Risks cannot be recognisedAims cannot be reachedWays can mislead.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Orientation
[lat], Physiology:
Capability of organisms (human being, animal, plant) to get used tosomewhere or find its way, to keep a certain position in space orchange the position mapped out;
basing on several outer appeals, but also on memorising and learningprocesses
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Orientation is not an objective fact but an individually perceived event.
Although we are convinced that orientation happens outside —it only happens inside of us.
Orientation is a cognitive achievement of perception and communicationdepending on knowledge and experience.
Perception and communication is the result out of understandingand interpretation of signs.
Orientation
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Signs
Signs serve to orientate.To design signs is the task of communication designers.Consequently orientation is the key benefit of communication design.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Jean Poinsot (alias Johannes a Sancto Thoma) 1632
Omnia instrumenta quibus ad cognoscendum et loquendum utimur, signa sunt.All instruments we use for recognition and communication are signs.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
The emphasis of semiotic research lies in philosophy and linguistics;
in general semiotics is subdivided in
syntactic (the relation of the signs)semantics (the relation between the significant and the sign) andpragmatics (the relation between the significant, the sign and the user)
© 2003 Bibliographisches Institut & F. A. Brockhaus AG
Semiotics is the science of signs [Greek σηµειον »sign«](scientia de signo)
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Semiotics
syntactic
pragmatic
Sign
Fact
Interpretation
semantic
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Visual communication is declared field of activityof the science of semiotics.
Visual Communication Design is applied semiotics.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Past-Signs
All we know about the history of the world and mankindwe have been told through signs.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Presence-Signs
All actions are reactions on signs or signs aiming to evoke reaction.
What is the meaning of the signs we send?What is the meaning and the effect of the signs we receive?
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Future-Signs
There are signs indicating the development of the future.
Which signs?What do these signs mean?How to react accordingly to these signs?
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Designer identify and create signs.
In the view of the apparent changes it is the task of the designer to identify thesigns of time, to interpret them, visualise them and make them available asorientation guides for the future development.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Effective visualising is a science and an art.
Matt Woolman Digital information graphics, 2002
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Aesthetics is the science of the sensual perception.
Alexander Gottlieb Baumgarten 1750
Aesthetics from the Greek aisthesthai ‘to perceive.’The branch of philosophy dealing with the principles of beauty andartistic taste.
Thesaurus 2005
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
“The Germans are the only ones which use the word aesthetics todescribe what others call the critics of taste.
It is basing on the false hope (…) to bring the critical evaluation ofbeauty under rational criteria and lifting them up to become a science.
But yet this attempt is in vain (…).”
Kant, Kritik der reinen Vernunft §1.70.B36 1781
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
aliquid stat pro se ipso
“All one wants to know is if the pure imagining of an object goes alongwith delight, no matter how uninterested I am about the existence ofthe object of my imagination”
Kant, Kritik der Urteilskraft 1790 §2. 117. B/A6)
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
The polysemantic use of the word aesthetics makes it a passepartoutword which fits everywhere because it does not mean anything.
Wolfgang Welsch, Grenzgänge der Ästhetik, 1996
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
design as art
shapecolourtexturezeitgeistmeaning…
aestheticsstylingdecoration
form
tools
Based on Prof. John Heskett
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
design as complex societal task
shapecolourtexturezeitgeistmeaning…
aestheticsstylingdecoration
form
usepurposeergonomicsenvironmentlife style…
interactionergonomicssemiotics
function
materialsprocessestechnologydurabilityreliability…
engineeringeconomysustainability
production
tools
priceusabilitypositioningdistributioncompetition…
strategic designsystemscultural factors
application
Based on Prof. John Heskett
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
“Our basic aesthetic sense (…) resides in the inherited ability to recognise thediversity of organic forms.
(…)
It is the same organic form recognition program which now provides us with ouraesthetic sense of visual organisation and composition”
Aesthetic sense
Peter D. Stebbing Cumulus Conference Utrecht
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Peter D. Stebbing Cumulus Conference Utrecht
stimulus
not perceptible
organicnot organic
contrast
rhythm
balance
proportion
no contrast
no rhythm
no balance
no proportion
perc
eptio
n le
vel
Recognition program for organic forms
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
By arranging mode, dimension and function of a sign or a sign systemfollowing logic criteria you receive a grammatical system.
This system can function as guideline for research, development andapplication.
Viskom Module System
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
x
y
mode
dim
ensi
on
static
dynamic
interactive
image script
message dimension
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
x
y
z
function
mode
dim
ensi
on
static
dynamic
interactive
image script
orientationinformation
inspiration
message function
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
x
y
z
function
mode
dim
ensi
on
static
dynamic
interactive
image script
orientationinformation
inspiration
Viskom cube
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
x
y
z
function
mode
dim
ensi
on
static
dynamic
interactive
image script
orientationinformation
inspiration
Viskom cube
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
x
y
z
function
mode
dim
ensi
on
static
dynamic
interactive
image script
orientationinformation
inspiration
Viskom module system
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
no principal changes of the process
520
year
s
1970
photo setting
offset printing20
year
s
1990
digital settingcomputer to plateoffset printing
10 ye
ars
2000
desk top publishingcomputer to printlaser printinginternet
? ye
ars
1450
movable letter
high printing
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
changes in processing
sTransport
Transport
Transport
rmessage Print
Graphic Designr
r
s message Disposition
Visual Communication Design
r
r
r
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
the new role of the communication designer
Function
Task
Method
Knowledge
Skills
Benefit
traditional
operational service provider
form giving of a product
from present to future
printing technology
artistic technical
aesthetic product
new thinking
strategic planer
form giving of processes
from future to present
semiotics
cultural scientific
societal functioning processes
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
strategic
planning
operating
Operating designerFinalising and executing design products.
professional pyramid
Planning designerPlanning, finalising and executing design projects.
Strategic designerAnalysing and developing conceptual platforms for major design projects ordesign policies.
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
The graphic-designerin a centralised system was anindependent or employed individualist,depending on central customers.
centralised
new work structure
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Graphic-designersin a decentralised system joined indesign groups or companies, acting onthe market as service enterprises, firstmono-disciplinary, later asmultidisciplinary groups.
decentralised
new work structure
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Visual communication designers workas individual experts in project related(virtual) networks.
networking
new work structure
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Design for needs instead of design for business.Process precedes product.Handle the media revolution.Help to find sustainable solutions.Contribute to a better understanding between cultures.
Give orientation.Set the right signs.
new designers needed
inst_at®Prof. Michael Hardt©250806_no dk
Allan Kay
The best method topredict the future is toinvent it yourself.