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Trend Macrolytics, LLC

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer

Thomas Demas, Managing Director

Michael Warren, Energy Strategist

Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Wednesday, January 6, 2021

The global scorecard

United States + 214,378 United States + 3,478

United Kingdom + 61,087 Brazil + 1,171

Brazil + 56,648 Mexico + 1,065

Sweden + 32,369 Germany + 1,009

Russia + 23,955 United Kingdom + 881

Spain + 23,700 France + 868

France + 20,825 Italy + 649

Germany + 18,349 South Africa + 513

India + 18,088 Russia + 503

Colombia + 16,835 Spain + 352

+ 486,234 + 10,489

World + 719,216 World + 15,137

Top ten 68% Top ten 69%

World

30.6 median population age

New cases New Deaths

The worst ten countries

113.488 bp of population infected

As of Jan 5

New confirmed cases

by continent

2.449 bp of population fatalities

Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

2

The US scorecard

New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital Hospital use ICU use

CA CA CA NY NY RI 87% NM 93%

MO TX TX TX FL GA 85% AL 92%

AZ NY FL CA NJ MD 83% GA 91%

TX MO NY FL GA SC 82% CA 88%

MI SC IL NJ AZ DC 80% OK 88%

PA VA OH IL OH NV 80% TX 87%

NY NC PA PA IN NC 79% RI 87%

IL AZ TN MI AL CT 78% NV 86%

IN GA GA MA MD CA 78% MS 85%

NJ FL NC GA MN AZ 77% NC 85%

72% 77%

69% 75%

Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries

United States

US vaccinations17.02 million doses distibuted

4.84 million 1st doses received

3.26 million distributed to long-term care

0.43 million 1st doses long-term care


+ 23,443

OH + 11,130

TN + 8,713

PA + 6,173

OK + 4,120

OH -127

FL -162-39

-44

-2,459 IA

-3,572

+ 482

+ 347

+ 339

+ 209

+ 7,580

+ 6,839

+ 6,271

+ 185

+ 154

+ 150

+ 189

+ 12,666

+ 253

+ 250

+ 31,440

+ 368 + 31,630

+ 146

+ 142

OH

IL

NJ

GA + 6,102

+ 5,932

All states

+ 132,834

AZ

TX

CA

FL

NY

PA

2,452,334 30,802

1,367,778 27,003

735,003 18,562

673,915 16,546

1,041,028 22,515

991,719 19,382

13,608

597,208 12,734

1,843,153

+ 138

+ 153

28,219

+ 149

-45 IL

All states

Median

NY -18 ID -98

TX

Some states not reporting

The ten worst US states

+ 2,242

+2985

75%

89,995

64,783

49,058

43,018

40,303

39,650

36,121

35,430

27,542

22,337

448,237

617,649

+ 128

+ 107

+ 217

+ 263

+ 15,556

+ 8,818

All states

MN -1,571

575,396 11,072

10,895,183 200,443

704,124

64%

+ 2,127

Top ten

MI

CT

KS AL -163TN

-174

Top ten

+ 214,378

+1.60 million/day

+0.27 million/day

+0.73 million/day

+0.06 million/day



52% 58%

20,825,758 348,286

62%

+ 3,478

61%

-2,184 KS -18

Five most improved US states

WA -7,605 CT

Dail

y n

ew

cases a

nd d

eath

s

Source: Covid Tracking Project, Dept. of Health and Human Services, CDC, TrendMacro calculations

https://covidtracking.com/https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/covid-19-estimated-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-by-statehttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

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US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources

Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

https://covidtracking.com/

4

US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health

Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative

Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates

(Does not foot

with national average

due to sample error)

ComorbiditesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For 6% of the deaths,

COVID-19 was the only

cause mentioned. For

deaths with conditions

or causes in addition to

COVID-19, on average,

there were 2.9

additional conditions or

causes per death.

Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

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Recommended reading

The Lab-Leak Hypothesis Nicholson Baker

New York Magazine Januray 4, 2021

Why did the world react so hysterically to covid? Sebastian Rushworth

January 3, 2021

Lockdowns Starve Mom and Pop Andy Pudzer

Wall Street Journal January 4, 2021

Meme of day

g

Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.htmlhttps://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/01/03/why-did-the-world-react-so-hysterically-to-covid/https://www.wsj.com/articles/lockdowns-starve-mom-and-pop-11609802683https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/category/the-week-in-pictures

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The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves

Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale


https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/

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The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves

Share of deceased population from day of first fatality



8

“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread



9

Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst


https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/

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Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst


https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/

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Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions

Source: IHME, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americahttps://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americahttps://covidtracking.com/

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From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande

New York

US ex-New York

Texas635.66 bp of population infected


As of Jan 5








Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations


13

The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)

California

Florida

Arizona

As of Jan 5










Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations


14

Patient zero… and then everyone else

China

World ex-China

As of Jan 5



2.97 bp of population mortalities


0.03 bp of population mortalities


Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project,TrendMacro calculations


15

Impact in the largest economies

Japan

Germany

France

As of Jan 5










Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

s

Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

16

Impact in The Anglosphere

United Kingdom

Canada

Australia10.31 bp of population infected


As of Jan 5










17

Impact in continental Europe

Italy

Spain

Switzerland

As of Jan 5










Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

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y new

case

s and d

eath

s



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Impact in other hot-spots

South Korea

Singapore

Sweden




As of Jan 5







Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

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sD

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case

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Impact in the BRICs ex-China

India

Russia

Brazil

As of Jan 5










Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

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y new

case

s and d

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Impact in the Middle East and Africa

Israel

Iran

Africa (52 nations)

As of Jan 5










Dail

y new

case

s and d

eath

sD

ail

y new

case

s and d

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case

s and d

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Trend Macrolytics, LLC › system › files › data-insights › ...Nicholson Baker New York...

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