in popular sciences

Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola | maritta.toivola@gmail.com

PART ONE Introduction 3 New opportunities for popular science

PART TWO Methodology 4 Best friends with Google

PART THREE Background Research 5 Trend Drivers 6 Making friends with trends

Current Trends 7 Technological development at its fastest

Trendsetters 10 Being big is huge

Weak Signals 11 Peek to the future

Trend Summary 13

PART FOUR Future Scenarios 14 Scenario 1 | Master’s Apprentice 15 Learning through experience

Scenario 2 | Power to The Specialists 17 Lerning by doing

Scenario 3 | Forever Young 19 Learning about yourself

PART FIVE Future Implications 21 Bringing it all together

PART SIX References 23 Picture sources 24

2/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

INTRODUCTION This trend forecasting report suggests three scenarios in context of adult learning, based on the main trends in popular science in the next coming decades.

As our world continues to change at the acceler-ating speed, we humans need to be in a state of constant learning and adapting. The problems that we are facing are increasingly complex, multicultural and multidisciplinary. We need new perspectives and new ways of learning to be able to contribute solutions to these problems. We need to get access to the ever-changing knowledge in a form that we can understand and absorb. This set-up highlights the importance of popular sciences, especially in the adult learning.

This report suggests three scenarios in context of adult learning, based on the main trends in popular science in the next coming decades.

To enable the future forecasts this report explores the past and current forms of technologies in popular science and the trends affecting them. Looking at the weak signals, it also maps out emerging technologies that are possibly shaping the future forms of popular science. From these three steps, the past, the present and the possible future, the part four presents three future learning -scenarios. First two scenarios are both wrapping around one strong emerg-ing technological trend. The last one suggests new focus for the future of learning. In the part five, the report discusses the implications of the future trends as a whole.

I wish you a pleasant journey to the future.– Maritta Toivola

PART ONE

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METHOD-OLOGY Eight weeks desk research and theories about trend forecasting by M. Gladwell and H. Vejlgaard. This research was conducted in order to map the past, current and possible future trends effecting the technology used in popular sciences.

The main structure of the study was based on the Trend Forecasting course lectures held in Aalto University of Art, Design and Architecture in the winter of 2013. The theory of trend forecasting was introduced mainly through theories from Malcolm Gladwell and Henrik Vejlgaard.

Data for the report was collected through an eight week desk research mainly done online. Main sources are trend and design companies’ websites, blogs and online news-papers and magazines. Also, an observation of social media and its reactions to current events was fruitful and had an affect on the final outcome.

PART TWO

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PART THREE

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Several existing and emerging trends and mega-trends drive technology in popular sciences.

There are several trends and megatrends that drive technology in popular sciences. Some of them that have been around already for a while are visualization, digitalization, storytelling, connectivity and, of course, globalization. Trends that have risen increasingly during the last few years are personalization, gamification and do-it-yourself (DIY).

Newer trends that are just beginning to show are crowdsourcing, open innovation, fantasy adventure, and atmosFEAR and futureTENSE, last two named by a famous trend forecasting agency Brain Reserve.

These are all molding the future of teaching and learning, through the development of technologies and popular science.

TRENDDRIVERS

PART THREE 1/5

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CURRENT TRENDS The technology is developing faster than ever. New innovations come to the market weekly and the old ones improve and get cheaper day by day.

From the technological trends, currently the fast-est movement is seen in 3D printing, augmented reality and lifelogging where people are recording their life minute by minute, like in Google Glasses -project. VIrtual experiences are starting to be visible not only in the science centers and amusement parks, but also in advertising and service design.

Japan is in a leading role in robotics. They have done incredi-ble work on robotic humans and humanoid robots which will most certainly have a huge impact in our lives in the future.

Current trend, alongside with the increasing amount of technology, seems to be the programming - learning to read and write code. Several applications, websites and other tools have been created to make the coding more easily approachable. Interestingly, other areas of science are following the example. This type of ´lowering the boundaries for learning` is going to be even stronger trend in the future.

What comes to children, they are getting more opportunities to act like adults and they are gaining a toehold in a decision making concerning them. Children are appreciated.

However, one of the most futuristic scientific successes that currently exist is the medical innovation of a tissue engineering. Admittedly, this research will reinforce the faith that in the future – everything will be possible.

PART THREE 2/5

7/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

8/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

9/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

TREND-SETTERS Trendsetters in technologies are the companies that have access to a huge amount of data, who can afford to hire the top innovators and get a lot of visibility in the media.

Most significant and visible trendsetters on the technological field, whose innovations affect to the popular science as well, are Google’s X Lab, NASA and US Military. Groundbreaking research is also done in the medical innovation sector. All of these innovations change how we see the world and its possibilities.

Other trendsetters are game industry, universities and students, and movie industry. Movie industry is creating possible scenarios for the future and that way helping people to adapt for the possible futures. Movies reach large audiences and often trigger global conversations.

PART THREE 3/5

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WEAK SIGNALS The weak signals are peeks into the possible futures of technologies in popular sciences.

An interesting thing to notice is that technology is being used in various ways to slowly introduce its possibilities to the consumers. One trend seems to be the rise of prototyping through virtual reality. It allows relatively easy and realistic way to involve end-users to the development of a space or a service, introducing them the technology at the same time. Also, in US a robotics com-pany is selling physical avatars helping severely ill children partici-pate normal life in a form of a robot, giving them a second chance for a happier life. Children are a good target for the new technolo-gies since they are more adaptable and open for new things.

Neurology is also finding its way to public awareness through mundane objects. Japanese company has developed a headphones

that can interpret your subconsciousness and automatically play the right music suitable for your mood.

We can already see that the 3D printing is going to rise its popu-larity among consumers. There are new online and physical stores opening almost every week, selling the machinery, materials, and modelings. In Japan a company has prototyped a 3D printing Photo Booth that replaces physical photos with small, 3D printed figurines.

It can also be seen that children’s mind-set is being more appreciated. Adults are trying to achieve it through gamification of work processes and children are involved in solving even the most demanding challenges we are facing - like the world peace.

However, there are also counter trends to the continuously increasing digitalization of objects, like a wallpaper that blocks the internet waves, and a dark side of the technological development: an organization promoting the 3D printing of guns.

PART THREE 4/5

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12/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

PART THREE 5/5Gamification

AtmosFEAR

Internet of things

Do-it-yourself Personalization

Visualization

Individualism

Fantacy adventure

FutureTENSE

Crowd- sourcing &

Open innovation

Storytelling Connectivity

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PART FOUR

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MASTER’SAPPRENTICE

PART FOUR 1/3

Gamification

Brain-machineinterface

Personalization

Augmented reality

Onlinelearning

Socialmedia

Voice controlling

Neuroscienceto pop-science

Emotiondetecters

Eye trackingtechnology

Crowd- sourcing &

Open innovation

Storytelling

Connectivity

Fantacy adventure

Learning through experience

In the future you can record your whole life, each second

of it, the things you saw, heard, and the emotions that you felt. Mo-

ments and memories of your life can be reconstructed and shared.

You can follow other people and share their live streamed moments.

You can follow how people around the world live their lives. Empathy

is highly valued virtue. You can truly feel what it is like to walk in

other people’s shoes. Social media is more popular than ever and it is

an exhaustive global channel for learning.

Professions are taught through real life experiences and as peer-

to-peer teaching. Children learn about work life through lifelogged

videos. Adults can specialize, further educate, or keep their

knowledge up-to-date by following the experts. Each profession has

its own gurus who are appreciated around the world. Experts can

teach and give guidance for several people at the same time. Medicine

needs less doctors and schools less teachers. Specialists are virtually

working in several places at the same time. Learning is a movie-like

experience with a strong emotional connection. Learning happens

through experiencing, copying, and imitating. Knowledge itself is

subjective, the objectivity is gained through various perspectives.

Cameras, mobile phones and all the possibilities of the internet

are all emerged into one technology. The technology also enables

governments and hackers to follow people in their everyday lives.

Statistics of human behaviours and movement are easily traceable.

Main business opportunities are in the equipment manufacturing,

field of information security, in the development of even more

realistic virtual experiences, and contrary, in experiences totally

without technology.

Individualism

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16/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

POWER TO THE SPECIALISTS

PART FOUR 2/3

3D bio-printer

Code business

Internet of things

Tissue engineering

3Dscanner

3Dprinter

Cloudservices

Fantacy adventure

Crowd- sourcing &

Open innovation

Easy coding systems

Do-it-yourselfPersonalization

Visualization

Wirelesseverything

Applications

Socialmedia

Electronicink

Electronicfabric

Learning by doing

In the future you can 3D print products at home, in the

office, or on the go, whenever you need them. You can improve your

surroundings or help others, test new solutions, and even make

game changing innovations in your own living room.

Technologies, production methods, furniture, vehicles and many

other products are undergoing a dramatic change when the users

get to improve them through 3D printing technology. Open inno-

vation is truly open for everyone. The heart of the movement is

online, in the social media, and in the communities developing the

innovations. Online is also where you can find endless amounts of

how-to manuals, codes, and product modelings. People are learning

by doing, driven by curiosity, and powered by discovery. Learning

happens through iteration – trial and error.

Companies are organizing competitions for improving their

products and services, harnessing company outsiders to serve their

research and development. Everyone is considered a specialist and

companies want to use that knowledge. Websites and apps are

developed to serve as innovation platforms. People participating in

the development get recognition in the community, which makes

gives the process game-like feeling.

Business opportunities are in the development of printing and

scanning machinery, printing materials, recycling, developing and

selling the ready-made modelings, development of easy-to-use

modelling programs and apps, in the online security and in the ad-

vocacy of copyrights.

Governments are observing closely the internet browsing of

individuals to keep an eye on the 3D printings classified as illegal.

Individualism

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18/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

FOREVER YOUNG

PART FOUR 3/3Gamification

AtmosFEAR

Childrenas idols

Personalization

Augmented reality

Onlinelearning

Virtualworlds

LEGO Serious Play

Neuroscienceto pop-science

Learningrobots

Emotiondetecters

Intelligentplay

Fantacy adventure

FutureTENSE

Brain-machineinterface

Learning about yourself

In the future you are working with ten year old colleagues.

Children and their mind-set are thought to be the greatest resource

there can be. Children are appreciated and taken seriously. They are

involved in the making of the future, partly because they are the

future, and mainly, because young children are experts in the new

technologies that take much longer for the adults to master and

adapt. Adults are encouraged to free their minds and think child-

like way. They are competing on the same projects.

The work life is planned to meet both adults’ and children’s needs:

working hours are flexible, work is project-based and more game-

like, the responsibilities are concentrated to few people. Researches

are developing and publishing new tools to child-like thinking every

month. However, it is the responsibility of an adult to be able to

reach the right level of mind. Newest innovation on this sector is a

medicine effecting the brain functions and making the adults brain

physically closer to a child’s brain.

The processes and technologies focus on the self-learning,

highlighting the free mind flow, thinking without restrictions, and

suppressing the past knowledge and approaches. Goal is not to

learn from the past projects because it would shackle your thinking.

In general, learning is secondary, the results of your work are the

main goal.

Business opportunities are in the neurological and medical

innovations and in the development of the child-mind-like tools.

Also, the office environments and professional tools enabling the

efficient communication between children and adults is going to

be a big business.

Individualism

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20/28Trend Report 06032013 | Trend Forecasting 2013 | Maritta Toivola

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS

The future will not choose its direc-tion, it will most likely spread unevenly among all three scenarios.

The three scenarios are implications on how the develop-ment of technologies, and the main trends, would affect on popular sciences, and through that, to human learning. Scenarios are peeks of the possibilities where they might take us in the following decades.

The main ideologies behind the first two, learning by copying and learning by doing have been around for centuries, they have only been changing their manifestation. Their triumph will continue even with otherwise so revolutionary technologies. The third scenario, learning about yourself, is new with its ideology springing from the individualism and highlighted meaning of a person and a personality. This has been visible in the past few years through strong leaders, where companies have personified and even branded themselves through their leaders, through leaders’ values and

personalities. But what is special in this scenario is that the cur-rent way of educating oneself is turned on its head. This might be extremely interesting in the context of current discussions about the lengthening of working careers. Forever Young scenario offers two solutions to this: lowering the age for entering the work life, and educating people less about facts that are currently changing faster than ever, and focusing on educating people as persons instead. For this it is important that people know the tools for self-knowledge and self-reflection. To ensure the best version of oneself, one needs to be well balanced. In the future one of the most important trait of a person is empathy, and through that the ability to work with any-one without distinction of age, cultural or educational background.

All of the scenarios: Master’s Apprentice, Power To The Specialists and Forever Young, have their strengths and weaknesses. However, it is important to acknowledge that different ways of learning suit different people. Undoubtedly, the personalisation trend keeps on going for a while and the learning processes become more and more individualized. For this, it is important that popular science offers alternatives for everyone.

PART FIVE

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How would you feel about these futures?

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REFERENCESwww.3ders.org www.alt1040.comwww.arstechnica.comwww.artificialbrains.comwww.augmentedplanet.com www.bbc.co.ukwww.backyardbrains.comwww.brainpop.comwww.businessweek.comwww.code.orgwww.codecademy.comwww.dailymail.co.ukwww.datamation.comwww.designboom.comwww.design.philips.comwww.envisioningtech.comwww.exploratorium.edu www.facebook.comwww.faithpopcorn.comwww.fastcodesign.com

www.fastfuture.comwww.foresight.stanford.edu www.futuristicnews.com www.gazettelive.co.ukwww.geekosystem.comwww.geeksugar.comwww.gizmodo.comwww.global.dstrict.comwww.iftf.orgwww.interactivedesign.itwww.interconnected.org www.io9.comwww.kickstarter.comwww.kidzania.com www.latercera.comwww.mashable.comwww.news.discovery.comwww.next-big-thing.netwww.ninjablocks.comwww.reddit.com

www.redorbit.comwww.readwrite.comwww.sentientdevelopments.com www.sifteo.comwww.singularityhub.comwww.slideshare.comwww.springwise.com www.t11s.comwww.techfreakstuff.comwww.techinasia.com www.technologyreview.comwww.theatlantic.comwww.thenextweb.com www.trendwatching.com www.txchnologist.comwww.vimeo.comwww.web.mit.eduwww.whatsnext.blogs.cnn.comwww.youtube.com

PART SIX 1/2

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PICTURE SOURCES

Page Source 1 http://www.d1g.com/gallery/show/3919437 2 http://christinegeee.tumblr.com/post/38016856277 3 http://www.eastpennsd.org/teacherpages/parnold/_songs%20and%20poems.html 4 http://www.prevoditelj-teksta.com/2013/01/kosa-crta-sa-zarezom-ili-bez.html?m=1 5 http://fiske.colorado.edu/donations.php 6 http://samn.co.uk/ 7 http://inhabitat.com/cyberdyne-unveils-mind-controlled-robot-exoskeleton-that-protects-fukushima-workers- from-nuclear-radiation/ http://ultratechtalk.com/humanoid-robot-2/ 8 http://www.gizmag.com/south-korea-kinect-theme-park/21333/ http://www.moma.org/interactives/exhibitions/2011/talktome/objects/146375/ http://waynehodgins.typepad.com/ontarget/2008/03/my-lego-epiphan.html http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/11/13/livesight-immersive-experiences-you-can-act-on/ Screenshot from: http://www.youtube.com/user/kidzania 9 http://www.the3doodler.com/gallery/ http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/google-project-glass-prototypes-offered-google-io-confernce/ story?id=16663176

PART SIX 2/2

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Page Source 9 http://www.theverge.com/2012/10/23/3539986/memoto-camera-lifelogging-kickstarter http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2012/5/263836.shtm http://articles.cnn.com/2012-10-19/tech/tech_innovation_backyard-brains-neuroscience_1_neuroscience-cnn- brain-communicates http://getfresh.com/products/ninja-blocks 10 http://www.army.mil/article/48456/robots-to-rescue-wounded-on-battlefield/ http://io9.com/5930098/how-soon-before-the-police-can-predict-crimes-before-they-happen http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-132 http://rumors.automobilemag.com/google%E2%80%99s-autonomous-car-commits-prius-on-prius-crime-66591 .html/google-car-sergey-brin-larry-page-eric-schmidt/ 11 http://bigthink.com/disrupt-education/robots-in-the-hallway http://paxsims.wordpress.com/2013/01/ http://www.spoon-tamago.com/2012/11/09/worlds-first-3d-printing-photo-booth-to-open-in-japan/ 12 http://www.rasmussenconsulting.dk/lego-serious-play-method/ Screenshot from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smC-rvzSph4 http://micobyneurowear.com/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/8006346553/ http://internettechspecialists.com/blog/tag/wifi/ http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/functioning-3d-printed-assault-rifle/ 13 http://www.pickywallpapers.com/hd/abstract/crystallized-colors-wallpaper/ http://timblackstone.hubpages.com/hub/Should-Robots-Wear-Lingerie https://vimeo.com/57333692 http://www.artifacting.com/2012/10/rain-room/ http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/death-of-the-mouse-how-eye-tracking-technology-could-save-the-pc/ http://thetechnologycircle.blogspot.fi/2006_01_01_archive.html http://mashable.com/2012/02/23/apples-icloud-unavailable-germany/ http://tech.gaeatimes.com/index.php/archive/kindle-makers-pvi-merges-and-e-ink-plan-to-merge/ http://www.pcauthority.com.au/News/163047,3d-without-the-annoying-glasses-is-it-possible.aspx

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Page Source 13 http://www.cultofmac.com/202630/why-apple-has-got-to-fix-siri/ http://leblog.ca-cb.fr/page/5/ http://blog.socialmaximizer.com/ http://www.pcworld.com/article/2024385/virtual-laser-keyboards-look-cool-but-might-not-be-ready-for-prime- time-video-.html http://trikeapps.com/projects/sharing-the-love/khan-academy http://forme-fonction.blogspot.fi/2011/12/techtalk-wireless-everything.html http://getlab.org/equipment/exascan-2/ http://synapsebristol.blogspot.fi/2013/02/the-ai-lab-brain-computer-interfaces.html http://leviathyn.com/games/xbox-360-2/2012/04/07/is-the-kinect-worth-it/ http://www.weirdasianews.com/2008/04/29/south-korea-to-build-worlds-first-robot-themed-parks/ http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:42771 http://www.cartridgenews.com/philips-designs-3d-food-printer/?p=01426 http://smallville.wikia.com/wiki/Teleportation 14 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20799344 15 http://www.pickywallpapers.com/hd/abstract/crystallized-colors-wallpaper/ 16 http://news.discovery.com/space/metamaterials-could-help-simulate-warp-drive.htm http://shoutmetech.com/505/best-video-chat-software-windows-linux-mac/ http://shame-full.com/watching-movies-burning-calories/ http://www.fotothing.com/coolpictures/photo/98c1f7245cf3cb087ddaee60714ae423/ http://syerenlondon.wordpress.com/2013/01/27/things-and-things/ 17 http://www.pickywallpapers.com/hd/abstract/crystallized-colors-wallpaper/ 18 http://news.discovery.com/space/metamaterials-could-help-simulate-warp-drive.htm http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100008357/stop-talking-rubbish-about-3d-printing/ http://ec2-54-242-162-199.compute-1.amazonaws.com/tutorials/357 http://entertheswarm.com/?p=55 http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Technology/Building_a_lunar_base_with_3D_printing

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Page Source 19 http://www.pickywallpapers.com/hd/abstract/crystallized-colors-wallpaper/ 20 http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2011/08/03/playing-with-lego-helps-you-create-better-websites-apparently/ http://www.plataformaarquitectura.cl/2012/08/24/nuevas-oficinas-de-google-penson/ http://www.tradingvisions.org/content/about-us http://www.tevienes.com/ai1ec_event/retiro-vacacional-magico-un-viaje-al-interior/?instance_id= http://www.tcd.ie/Communications/news/news.php?headerID=2806&vs_date=2012-12-1 21 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/culturepicturegalleries/6583057/Looking-through-a-crystal-ball-artist-Si mon-Bond-sees-the-world-through-a-glass-sphere.html 22 http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/future-tech/5-therapeutic-ways-use-virtual-reality.htm 23 http://www.flickr.com/photos/hawee/3527878000/in/photostream/ 24 http://www.flickr.com/photos/roger_gordon/2302476377/in/photostream/ 28 http://hdw.eweb4.com/out/522840.html

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Trend Forecasting 2013Trend Report 06032013 Maritta Toivolamaritta.toivola@gmail.com