Tree House 4Q FY 2013

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy)Net sales 29 29 1.1 22 32.8EBITDA 14 16 (13.0) 11 30.2

    EBITDA Margin (%) 48.3 56.1 (784)bp 49.2 (97)bp

    Adjusted PAT 7 8 (8.8) 5 45.1Source: Company, Angel Research

    Tree House Education and Accessories Ltd. (THEAL) reported a strong set of

    numbers for 4QFY2013. Its top-line grew by 32.8% yoy to `29.4cr, better than

    our estimate of`

    25.2cr. The EBITDA grew by 30.2% to`

    14.2cr while marginscontracted marginally by 97bp yoy to 48.3% owing to rise in other expenses.

    Subsequently, the net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr, aided by lower

    interest expense while net profit margin expanded to 25.0%.

    Budding pre-school segment provides growth visibility: The concept of impartingeducation to young toddlers is catching up fast today. As per CRISIL research, the

    size of pre-school segment is expected to grow to `13,300cr in 2015 from the

    current `5,000cr. Moreover, with an urbanization rate of 40% and escalated

    average household disposable income, the demand for the segment is expected

    to maintain its momentum.

    Dual business model provides competitive edge: Dual business model of THEALfacilitates it to maintain quality of education, maximize the profit through SOS,

    and widen its reach through franchisees. Moreover, Tree House being an

    established brand in the pre-school segment has taken a logical step to enter the

    K-12 segment. Pre-schools and K-12, thus, become complimentary to each other

    with pre-school acting as a feeder to the K-12.

    Outlook and valuation: Given the growth opportunities in the pre-school segmentand consistent expansion by THEAL, we expect the top-line and net profit to grow

    at a CAGR of 30.1% and 29.9% respectively over FY2013-15E to `194cr and

    `56cr in FY2015E. We recommend Accumulate on THEAL with a revised targetprice of `297 based on target PE of 19x of FY2015E earnings.Key financialsY/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales 77 114 153 194% chg 97.0 47.9 33.7 26.7

    Net Profit 22 33 45 56% chg 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2

    EBITDA Margin (%) 54.3 54.1 53.0 52.8FDEPS (`) 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6

    P/E (x) 45.3 29.2 21.8 17.3

    P/BV (x) 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3

    RoE (%) 8.4 9.6 11.8 13.1RoCE (%) 18.6 16.5 18.3 22.1

    EV/Sales (x) 12.2 8.6 6.5 5.0

    EV/EBITDA (x) 22.5 15.9 12.3 9.5

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    ACCUMULATECMP `271

    Target Price `297

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Net Debt 8.4

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 27.8

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 16.6

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 39.4

    Indian Public / Others 16.3

    Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 7.2 23.9 19.3

    THEAL 15.1 36.5 *

    * Listed in August 2011

    52 Week High / Low 295 / 190

    Educational Services

    Market Cap (`cr) 973

    Beta 0.9

    Avg. Daily Volume 27,277

    Face Value (`) 10

    BSE Sensex 20,215

    Nifty 6,124

    Reuters Code THEA.BO

    THEAL.IN

    Twinkle Gosar+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6848

    [email protected]

    Tree HouseSpreading Branches

    4QFY2013 Result Update | Educational Services

    May 30, 2013

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    Tree House | 4QFY2013 Result Update

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    Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance highlightsY/E March (` cr) 4QFY13 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chgTotal operating income 29.4 29.1 1.1 22.1 32.8 114 77 47.7Net raw material 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    (% of Sales) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    Employee cost 3.4 3.5 (1.7) 3.0 12.6 13.3 13.1 1.6

    (% of Sales) 11.5 11.9 13.6 11.7 16.9

    Other Expenses 11.8 9.3 27.0 8.2 43.6 39.2 22.2 76.1

    (% of Sales) 40.2 32.0 37.2 34.3 28.8

    Total expenditure 15.2 12.8 19.2 11.2 35.3 52 35 48.5EBITDA 14.2 16.3 (13.0) 10.9 30.2 61.8 42.0 47.1EBITDA Margin (%) 48.3 56.1 (784)bp 49.2 (97)bp 54.1 54.3 (23)bp

    Interest 1.2 2.2 (45.9) 2.0 (2382.2) 6.6 6.5 1.8

    Depreciation 3.6 3.4 7.1 2.7 34.3 13.4 7.8 71.5Other income 1.7 1.3 28.5 1.3 32.5 7.1 3.8 87.1

    PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 11.0 12.0 (8.2) 7.4 48.4 48.8 31.5 55.2Extr. Income/(Expense) 24.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

    PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 35.7 12.0 7.4 48.8 31.5(% of Sales) 121.5 41.4 33.6 42.7 40.7

    Tax 3.7 4.0 (7.0) 2.4 55.5 15.5 9.9 56.1

    (% of PBT) 10.4 33.1 32.0 31.7 31.6

    Reported PAT 32.0 8.1 297.6 5.1 532.6 33.3 21.5 54.8Adjusted PAT 7.3 8.1 (8.8) 5.1 45.1 33.3 21.5 54.8PATM (%) 25.0 27.7 22.9 29.2 27.8

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:Actual vs Angel's EstimatesActual v/s Angel's Estimates Actual (`cr) Estimate (` cr) % variationTotal Income 29 25 16.7EBITDA 14 14 4.5

    EBITDA Margin 48.3 53.9 (560)bp

    Adjusted PAT 7 5 33.7Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 4QFY2013, the top-line of the company grew by 32.8% yoy to`

    29.4cr on theback of opening 30 pre-schools, better than our estimate of `25.2cr. The EBITDA

    grew by 30.2% to `14.2cr while margins contracted marginally by 97bp yoy to

    48.3% owing to rise in other expenses. On the back of strong top-line growth and

    robust operating performance, net profit grew by a whopping 45.1% to `7.3cr,

    aided by lower interest expense. The interest expense has reduced since the

    company has switched its loan to a relatively cheaper substitute (would be repaid

    by FY2015E). Subsequently, the net profit margin too expanded from 22.9% in the

    same quarter previous year to 25.0% in current quarter and above our estimate of

    21.8%.

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    Exhibit 3:Net sales moving northwards

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Expansion cost dents EBITDA margin

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Investment argumentsUnique business model and strong brand to provide competitive edge

    THEAL is the largest self-operated pre-school provider in India, operating on a

    dual business model, ie operating SOS (~80% of total centres) in metro cities and

    adopting the franchise model in tier 3 & 4 cities. This model facilitates the

    company to maintain its quality of education and maximize profits through SOS;

    and widen the reach through franchisees. In franchisees, the quality of education is

    maintained by adopting standardization of curriculum and teacher training

    programmes. Strong brand and assured quality of education act as differentiating

    pillars and hence provides THEAL a competitive edge over other pre-school

    operators.

    THEAL has recently announced its initiative to provide pre-primary education at

    affordable prices through Global Champs pre-schools. The company has opened

    4 centres until now in Mumbai.

    K-12 to be logical extension, pre-school being the potential feeder

    Tree House being an established and trusted brand in the pre-school segment

    has taken a logical step to enter the K-12 segment. K-12 schools are established

    only where the company has strong pre-school presence, which minimizes the

    marketing cost. The company currently provides consultancy and management

    services to 24 schools and is in the process of developing 3 self-owned K-12

    school buildings, for which major capex has already been undertaken.

    Revenue comes in by way of service or consultancy fees which are usually based

    on factors which include (i) per child admitted to the school (for services forming

    part of service agreement) and (ii) lumpsum basis (for services beyond the scope of

    service agreement).

    Both, pre-schools and K-12s are complimentary to each other with pre-school

    acting as a feeder to the K-12. We expect the K-12 segment to post a CAGR of

    60% over FY2012-15 to `23cr in FY2015.

    10

    16

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    60.0

    7.621.7 3.9

    24.3 2.72.8 1.1

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    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    (`cr)

    Revenue ( LHS) Revenue growth qoq ( RHS)

    3.9

    9.4

    10.7

    11.0

    10.9

    15.8

    15.5

    16.3

    14.2

    38.6

    58.160.9

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    (%)

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    EBITD A (LH S) EBIT DA Margin (RHS )

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    Potential growth in pre-school segment- key growth driver

    Niche but growing addressable market: India is the second most populatedcountry in the world with ~54cr in the age bracket of 0-24 years, which forms

    the addressable segment for education. As per CRISIL research, the size of

    pre-school segment is expected to grow to `13,300cr in 2015 from the current

    `5,000cr. To capitalize on such opportunities, THEAL intends to establish and

    expand the number of its pre-schools in various cities and towns in India and

    proposes to open an additional 120 pre- schools across India by FY2014.

    Rapid urbanization and transition in income bracket of people: According toMckinsey Global Institutes recent research study, Indias urban population is

    expected to rise from 34cr in 2008 to 59cr in 2030, ie an urbanization rate of

    40% (lower than seen in most Asian countries due to strict definition of Indian

    Census). The average household disposable income in urban areas is

    expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% from ~`60,000 in 2008 to ~`239,000

    in 2030 considering a GDP growth rate of 7.4%. Thus, such a rise in

    disposable incomes provides strong growth visibility for the education market.

    Changing lifestyles with need for quality education: With the changingdemographics, the lifestyle of the people has changed drastically. Women who

    used to be home-makers previously are now joining the workforce and that

    too at an increasing rate. Also, there is increased awareness about the role of

    education in a competitive market (Think tank). Moreover, with awareness of

    the fact that 40% of a persons ability to learn is shaped during the first four

    years of his life, pre-schools have secured a vital place in the education

    system.

    Brainworks Learning acquisition to complement THEALs reach

    THEAL has plans to acquire a pre-school brand Brainworks Learning (BL) which is

    expected to be finalised by the end of 1QFY2014. BL centres are present mainly in

    the areas where THEAL is yet to establish its foothold. The proposed acquisition is

    hence expected to widen the reach of THEAL. Of the 70 centres of BL, 13 are self

    owned and will be converted to Tree House brand post acquisition. Rest of the

    centres, which are franchisee based, will be given an option to convert to THEALs

    brand or else continue with BLs brand. This inorganic growth is thus expected toboost the top-line, while simultaneously extending the reach.

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    Financials

    Exhibit 5:Key AssumptionsParticulars FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ETotal no of pre-school centres 302 379 489 619

    SOS 240 300 385 485

    Franchisee 62 79 104 134

    Total Revenue (` cr) 77 114 153 194Pre-school Revenue (` cr) 72 100 137 171

    SOS 68 94 128 160

    Franchisee 1 2 3 4

    Teacher training program 3 4 6 7

    K-12 Revenue (` cr) 6 14 16 23School management fees 4 13 15 20

    Infrastructure rent 1.2 1.2 1.2 3

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Revised EstimatesY/E Mar. Earlier estimates Revised estimates % changeFY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015E FY2014E FY2015ENet Sales (` cr) 150 192 153 194 1.9 0.8EBITDA Margin (%) 34.3 27.4 33.7 26.2 30bp (219)bp

    EPS (`) 12.8 16.2 12.4 15.6 (3.2) (3.5)Source: Angel Research

    Expansion plans to lead to top-line CAGR of 30.1% over FY2013-15E

    For FY2013, the top-line grew 47.7% to `114cr, owing to an addition of a total of

    77 pre-schools, marginally higher than our estimate of `110cr. As on date, THEAL

    owns 379 pre-schools and right to provide management services in 24 K-12

    schools. The top-line, following the expansion plans of the company, is expected to

    grow at a CAGR of 30.1% over FY2013-15 to `194cr in FY2015E.

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    Exhibit 7:Pre-school and K-12 expansion plans to drive top-line

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY2013-15E

    The EBITDA for FY2013 came in 54% higher yoy to `62cr as compared to our

    estimate of `59cr. The EBITDA margin contracted slightly by 20bp to 54.1% owing

    to rise in other expenses due to constant expansion activities by the company.

    On the back of a robust estimated top-line growth of 30.1% (CAGR), the

    companys EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.5% over FY2013-15E,

    from `62cr in FY2013 to `102cr in FY2015E. The EBITDA margin is expected to

    stabilize ~52-53% over FY2012-15E.

    Exhibit 8:EBITDA to normalise at higher levels

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Net profit to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-15E

    For FY2013, the net profit growth was at 53.3% to `33cr, owing to reduced

    interest expense for the year. The net profit margin too expanded by 133bp to

    29.2%.

    On back of a robust estimated top-line coupled with a healthy and stable

    operating performance, the PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% to `56cr

    in FY2015E with a PAT margin of 29.0%.

    21 3

    977

    114

    155

    194

    108.2

    83.5

    97.0

    47.7

    35.4

    25.2

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    FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

    (%)

    (`

    cr)

    Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth (RHS)

    717 42 62 83 102

    32.9

    43.1

    54.3 54.1 53.6

    52.8

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    EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

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    Exhibit 9:PAT margins to stabilise at higher levels

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Outlook and Valuation

    THEAL is in a position to capitalize on the growth opportunities emerging in the

    pre-schools segment. It is consistently expanding its network of pre-schools and

    K-12 schools pan-India. The top-line of the company is expected to grow at a

    30.1% CAGR over FY2013-15 to `194cr in FY2015E. The EBITDA for the company

    is expected to grow from `62cr in FY2013 to `102cr in FY2015E, at a 28.5%

    CAGR. Owing to a robust top-line and healthy EBITDA, the net profit for the

    company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-15E to `56cr in

    FY2015E. At the current market price of `271, the stock is trading at a PE of 17.3x

    its FY2015E earnings. Considering the nascent stage of pre-school segment with

    high potential growth prospects and unique model of THEAL, we recommendAccumulate on THEAL with a revised target price of `297, based on target PE of19x for its FY2015E earnings.Exhibit 10:One-year forward PE

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    28 22 33 45 56

    11.6

    19.8

    27.829.2

    29.0

    29.0

    0

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    FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E

    (%)

    (`

    cr)

    PAT (LHS) PAT margin (RHS)

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    130

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    Nov-11

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    Price 15x 21x 27x 33x

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    Competition

    The education sector in India is largely unorganized and the business of

    pre-schools is highly fragmented and competitive. In addition to competition from

    unorganized players in the pre-schools business, THEAL faces a lot of competition

    from organized players in the market where it competes with various pre-schools

    like Kidzee, Euro Kids, and Roots to Wings (operated by Educomp Solutions).

    Risks

    Geographical concentration: Of the total 379 pre-schools, more than 40% are

    located in and around Mumbai metropolitan. This suggests a geographical

    concentration risk to the company.

    Regulations pertaining to K-12 segment: Operating pre-schools and

    providing educational services to K-12 schools are currently unregulated, but the

    government may introduce a regulatory framework in future. Any such government

    regulation, and THEALs inability to comply with the same, may adversely affect its

    revenue.

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    Profit and loss statement (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 39 77 114 153 194

    Less: Excise duty - - - - -Net Sales 39 77 114 153 194

    Other operating income - - - - -

    Total operating income 39 77 114 153 194% chg 83.5 97.0 47.9 33.7 26.7

    Other operating costs 4 16 30 41 52

    % chg 103.1 307.1 85.0 36.5 28.0

    Personnel 5 13 13 18 24

    % chg 86.0 166.8 1.6 38.9 27.6

    Other 13 6 10 13 16

    % chg 35.6 (51.3) 53.2 34.1 25.6

    Total Expenditure 22 35 53 72 91

    EBITDA 17 42 61.82 81 102% chg 140.8 147.8 47.3 31.1 26.0

    (% of Net Sales) 43.1 54.3 54.1 53.0 52.8

    Depreciation & Amortization 4 8 13 18 21

    EBIT 13 34 48 63 81% chg 216.3 163.4 41.8 30.1 29.1

    (% of Net Sales) 33.1 44.2 42.4 41.2 42.0

    Interest & other charges 1 7 7 5 3

    Other Income 0 4 7 7 4

    (% of Net Sales) 1.2 4.9 6.1 4.5 1.9

    PBT (reported) 12 31 49 65 82Tax 4 10 16 21 26(% of PBT) 36.3 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.7

    PAT (reported) 8 22 33 45 56PAT after MI (reported) 8 22 33 45 56ADJ. PAT 8 22 33 45 56% chg 212.4 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2

    (% of Net Sales) 19.8 27.8 29.1 29.2 29.1

    Basic EPS (`) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6Fully Diluted EPS (`) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6% chg 212.4 176.4 55.0 33.7 26.2

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    Balance sheet (Standalone)

    Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 24 34 36 36 36

    Share Premium account 87 193 240 240 235

    Profit Loss account 12 29 63 102 158

    Reserves & Surplus 99 223 302 342 393Share warrants - - 10 - -

    Shareholders Funds 123 256 348 378 429Total Loans 48 51 67 47 27

    Long term provision - - 0 0 0

    Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0

    Net Deferred Tax Liability 1.8 3.3 4.4 4.4 4.4

    Total Liabilities 172 311 420 429 460APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 72 154 186 251 288

    Less: Acc. Depreciation 10 17 31 49 70

    Net Block 62 137 155 202 219Capital Work-in-Progress 52 20 40 40 40

    Lease adjustment - - - - -

    Goodwill - 29 27 24 22

    Investments 3 31 10 10 12

    Long term loans & advances 34 85 169 174 183

    Current Assets 35 64 70 37 49Cash 29 48 49 11 19

    Loans & Advances 3 5 7 10 12

    Inventory 1 4 5 5 6

    Debtor 2 6 7 8 10

    Other current assets 3 2 3 3 3

    Current liabilities 14 25 24 33 43

    Net Current Assets 22 39 46 3 7Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - -Total Assets 172 311 420 429 460

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    Cash flow statement (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit Before Tax 12 31 49 65 82

    Depreciation 4 8 13 18 21

    Other Income (0) (4) (7) (7) (4)

    Change in WC 18 5 (6) 5 4

    Direct taxes paid (4) (10) (16) (21) (26)

    Cash Flow from Operations 29 31 34 60 78(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (88) (102) (136) (70) (46)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (2) (29) 21 0 (2)

    Other Income 0 4 7 7 4

    Cash Flow from Investing (89) (126) (108) (63) (45)Issue of Equity/Preference 7 10 46 (10) 0

    Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 37 5 16 (20) (20)

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 0 (3) (5) (5) (5)

    Others 35 103 17 - -Cash Flow from Financing 78 115 75 (35) (25)Inc./(Dec.) in cash 19 19 1 (38) 8

    Opening cash balance 10 29 48 49 11Closing cash balance 29 48 49 11 19

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    Key ratiosY/E March FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 125.1 45.3 29.2 21.8 17.3

    P/CEPS 82.9 33.2 20.8 15.5 12.6

    P/BV 7.9 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.3

    Dividend yield (%) - 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

    EV/Net sales 25.2 12.2 8.6 6.5 5.0

    EV/EBITDA 58.4 22.5 15.9 12.3 9.5

    EV / Total Assets 5.7 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.1

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6

    EPS (fully diluted) 2.2 6.0 9.3 12.4 15.6

    Cash EPS 3.3 8.1 13.0 17.4 21.4

    DPS - 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3

    Book Value 34.1 71.3 96.9 105.0 119.2

    DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 33.1 44.2 42.4 41.2 42.0

    Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

    ROIC (Post-tax) 9.3 12.7 11.2 12.5 15.1

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 1.7 8.7 6.8 6.8 6.8

    Leverage (x) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.0)

    Operating ROE 10.3 12.3 11.3 12.9 15.0

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.5 11.0 11.5 14.7 17.7

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 14.6 18.6 16.5 18.3 22.1

    ROE 6.3 8.4 9.6 11.8 13.1

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset TO (Gross Block) 4.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7

    Inventory / Net sales (days) 8 12 13 12 47

    Receivables (days) 41 18 20 18 18

    Payables (days) 156 130 130 130 130

    WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (1) (1) (9) (18) (22)

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to Equity 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.0)

    Net debt to EBITDA 1.0 (0.7) 0.1 0.3 (0.0)

    Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 10.4 5.3 7.3 13.6 30.7

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    M

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    fundamentals.

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    Disclosure of Interest Statement Tree House

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

    1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors