TREB Condo network presentation

TREB Market Update

Toronto Condo Network

Presented By: Jason Mercer, TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis

April 15, 2011

Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011

Bank of Canada held the line on rates, but hikes are on the way

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board

Outlook for the Bank of Canada's Target for the Overnight Lending Rate

Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate

3-Month T-Bill

3-Month T-Bill (Forward Rates)


The five-year fixed mortgage rate will increase as well

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board

Outlook for the Average Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Five Year Fixed Rate MortgageFive Year Fixed Rate Mortgage ForecastFive Year Government of Canada BondFive Year GoC Bond (Forward Rates)

Still Room for DiscountingING Direct (April 13/11)


The GTA unemployment rate is declining

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Jan

-88

Jan

-89

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

(F)

Jan

-12

(F)

Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)

GTA Unemployment Rate


Incomes are rising in the GTA

-1.0

%

4.7

% 4.2

%

2.5

%

1.3

%

0.8

%

3.0

%

3.6

%

3.2

%

2.1

%

4.4

%

1.5

%

1.6

%

3.0

%

3.5

%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)

Annual Growth Rate for Average Weekly Earnings


Affordability is a key indicator for the direction of price and sales

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada

TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home


TorontoMLS® sales forecast

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

TorontoMLS® Sales (Annual)


TorontoMLS® average selling price forecast

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000


Average TorontoMLS® Selling Price


First Quarter 2011 Condo Apartment Statistics – All TREB Districts

2423

657

519

1389

Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By TREB Area

Central TREB Districts

East TREB Districts

North TREB Districts

West TREB Districts

Source: TREB

42%

49%

7%

Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By Bedroom Type

Bachelor

One Bedroom

Two Bedroom

Three Bedroom

Source: TREB

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

1,000,000+

900K-999,999

800K-899,999

700K-799,999

600K-699,999

500K-599,999

400K-499,999

300K-399,999

200K-299,999

0-199,999

Number of Sales

Selli

ng

Pri

ce R

ange

Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range

Source: TREB

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Bachelor One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom

Total


Condo Apartment Price by Bedroom Type (All Districts)

Average Selling Price

Median Selling Price


Share of condo apartment sales varied by district in the first quarter


Average condo apartment prices varied by district in the first quarter

% Over/Under the Average TREB Condo Apartment Price


Downtown Core – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary

Downtown Core

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total

Source: TREB

Price By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core)



9

140

279

388

375

84

0 100 200 300 400 500

Three Bedroom

Two Bedroom +

Two Bedroom

One Bedroom +

One Bedroom

Bachelor

Source: TREB

Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core )

0 200 400 600 800

1,000,000+

900K-999,999

800K-899,999

700K-799,999

600K-699,999

500K-599,999

400K-499,999

300K-399,999

200K-299,999

0-199,999

Number of Sales

Selli

ng

Pri

ce R

ange

Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Downtown Core)

Source: TREB


North York City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary

North York City Centre

35

98

162

116

111

1

0 50 100 150 200

Three Bedroom

Two Bedroom +

Two Bedroom

One Bedroom +

One Bedroom

Bachelor

Source: TREB

Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre)

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000


Source: TREB

Price By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre)



0 100 200 300

1,000,000+

900K-999,999

800K-899,999

700K-799,999

600K-699,999

500K-599,999

400K-499,999

300K-399,999

200K-299,999

0-199,999

Number of Sales

Selli

ng

Pri

ce R

ange

Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (North York City Centre)

Source: TREB


Mississauga City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary

Mississauga City Centre

21

104

104

96

47

0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Three Bedroom

Two Bedroom +

Two Bedroom

One Bedroom +

One Bedroom

Bachelor

Source: TREB

Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre)

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000


Source: TREB

Price By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre)



0 100 200 300

1,000,000+

900K-999,999

800K-899,999

700K-799,999

600K-699,999

500K-599,999

400K-499,999

300K-399,999

200K-299,999

0-199,999

Number of Sales

Selli

ng

Pri

ce R

ange

Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Mississauga City Centre)

Source: TREB


Rental Market

Increases in Rental Listings and Transactions

• Following the trend for condominium apartment completions in the last four months of 2010, the number of rental units listed on the TorontoMLS® system increased.

• While the number of rental units listed increased, so too did the number of rental transactions, suggesting that there are a growing number of households looking to rent condominium apartments.

• Average rents remained more or less flat compared to 2009. Because demand kept up with supply, we did not see any widespread downward pressure on rents.0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre

Source: TREB

Number of Units Listed3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009

2010 2009

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre

Source: TREB

Number of Units Rented3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009

2010 2009

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

All TREB Downtown Core North York City Centre

Mississauga City Centre

Source: TREB

Average One-Bedroom Rents3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009

2010 2009


Strong condo completions have resulted in a more balanced market

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

An

nu

al Me

dian

Price

Gro

wth

Sale

s-to

-Act

ive

Lis

tin

gs r

atio


Condominium Apartment Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio and

Median Price Growth (All Areas)Annual Median Price Change (Right Scale)

Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (Left Scale)

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