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TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

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Page 1: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook

Business Intelligence

Katie Moro

Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships

03/16/16

Page 2: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

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25

North America Markets

231 Million

Room Nights

$37 Billion

Annual Room Revenue

365

Days in the future

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20,000+ Partners

Page 4: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

Q4 2015 Wrap Up

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Page 5: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

5

Q4, 2015

24.1%

34.2%

25.8%

12.8%

3.1%

Retail

Discount

Negotiated

Qualified

Wholesale

30.3%

12.8% 21.1%

19.2%

16.6%

Brand.com

CRS

Direct

GDS

OTA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Brand.com CRS Direct GDS OTA

Wholesale

Qualified

Negotiated

Discount

Retail

Customer Segmentation – Transient Room Nights

Page 6: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

30.2%

21.0% 19.1%

12.7%

16.5%

4.3%

-7.2%

3.8%

-4.4%

3.5%

Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA

% of Transient

Var % vs LY

Var % vs LY (Across All Markets)

6

Q4, 2015

Channel Performance – Transient Room Nights

Page 7: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

$157

$139

$187

$170

$147

2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1%

Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA

ADR

Var % to LY

Var % vs LY (All Channels)

7

Q4, 2015

Channel Performance – Transient Average Daily Rate

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2016

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Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 3.7% over same time last year

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Var

% t

o L

Y

Ro

om

Nig

hts

Top 25 North American Markets

Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %

Page 10: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

For reservations on the books for 2016, which segment is leading the market (Top 25 US markets) for occupancy growth? a) Group b) Transient Business c) Transient Leisure

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Page 11: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

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Group and Leisure are up over last year in both occupancy and ADR, while Transient Business starts to slow down in occupancy

Group

Room Nights ADR

+0.6% +3.6%

Transient Business

-0.5% +4.0%

Transient Leisure

+2.3% +3.6%

Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for 2016 in top 25 North American markets

Negotiated, Retail

Discount, Qualified, Wholesale

Page 12: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17

Ro

om

Nig

hts

Current on the Books and Last Year Variance – Future 12 Months

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Va

rian

ce

% v

s L

ast Y

ea

r

Legend

TY Room Night

LY Room Nights

As of This Month

As of Last Month

12

As Of:

March 1, 2016

Scope:

Committed

Occupancy (Group

Block + Transient

Reserved)

12 Month Outlook by Month

Page 13: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17

Ro

om

Nig

hts

Current on the Books and Last Year Variance – Future 12 Months

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Va

rian

ce

% v

s L

ast Y

ea

r

Legend

TY Room Night

LY Room Nights

As of This Month

13

As Of:

March 1, 2016

Scope:

Committed

Occupancy

(Group Block)

Luxury

Upper Upscale

12 Month Outlook by Month

Page 14: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

Atlanta

Boston

Charlotte

Chicago

Dallas

Denver

Detroit

Houston

Indianapolis

Los Angeles

Miami

Minneapolis St Paul

New York

Orlando

Philadelphia

Phoenix

San Antonio

San Diego

San Francisco

Seattle

St Louis

Tampa

Toronto

Washington DC

Pace Variance % versus Last Year

+20.4%

14

-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%

Atlanta

Boston

Charlotte

Chicago

Dallas

Denver

Detroit

Houston

Indianapolis

Los Angeles

Miami

Minneapolis St Paul

New York

Orlando

Philadelphia

Phoenix

San Antonio

San Diego

San Francisco

Seattle

St Louis

Tampa

Toronto

Washington DC

Variance % versus Last Year

+5.4%

8.6%

6.0%

29.3%

-1.6%

14.2%

4.0%

46.7%

-20.5%

-15.5%

27.6%

26.3%

1.8%

3.7%

9.8%

5.5%

-4.4%

1.5%

-8.4%

16.1%

-2.4%

6.9%

-14.8%

-7.7%

-1.1%

18.8%

68.1%

14.1%

142.8%

40.9%

-21.1%

-43.0%

21.4%

282.7%

61.7%

-18.8%

73.2%

-14.9%

7.3%

57.2%

20.9%

-27.3%

65.1%

-31.8%

39.4%

58.2%

-58.8%

-42.3%

-42.3%

1.6%

16.5%

Legend:

Group Block

Variance – All

Markets

As Of:

March 1, 2016

Scope:

Occupancy (Group

Block)

Q4, 2016

Group Occupancy Outlook

Page 15: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

35.6%

22.7%

13.7% 12.6% 14.9%

6.1%

-7.1%

0.3%

-4.6%

12.8%

Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA

% of Transient

Var % vs LY

Var % vs LY (Across All Markets)

15

Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016

Channel Performance – Transient Room Nights

Page 16: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

$172

$155

$191 $198

$178

2.5%

4.9%

2.8% 3.7% 3.3%

Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA

ADR

Var % to LY

Var % vs LY (All Channels)

16

Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016

Channel Performance – Transient Average Daily Rate

Page 17: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

42 43 42 42 44 45

47 49 48

42

48

52 55

58 61

64

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hotel Bookings (In Millions)

Source: TravelClick Agency360. Q4 2015.

17

GDS – Year over Year Performance

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Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016

Leading Markets for inbound US Travel

Besides the US, the following 10 countries provided the most bookings into the top 25 markets.

Source Country Canada Great Britain Australia Germany Japan India Korea Mexico Brazil Italy

*Upscale, Upper Upscale, and Luxury hotels

Page 19: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

In Q4 2015, what % of transient bookings were made by a customer who is part of a loyalty program? A.) 30% B.) 60% C.) 85%

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Page 20: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Brand.com GDS Direct CRO OTA

Loyalty

Non-Loyalty

60.4%

39.6%

20

2015 Q4

Loyalty vs. Non-Loyalty Performance % of Transient Room Nights

Page 21: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

0%

20%

40%

60%

20

11-Q

1

20

11-Q

2

20

11-Q

3

20

11-Q

4

20

12-Q

1

20

12-Q

2

20

12-Q

3

20

12-Q

4

20

13-Q

1

20

13-Q

2

20

13-Q

3

20

13-Q

4

20

14-Q

1

20

14-Q

2

20

14-Q

3

20

14-Q

4

20

15-Q

1

20

15-Q

2

20

15-Q

3

20

15-Q

4

. Loyalty Non Loyalty

21

Loyalty versus Non-Loyalty Share

Page 22: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

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Group pace for Luxury & Upper Upscale hotels overall for next 12 months is flat with some high notes, but October is concerning.

Transient business demand growth has moderated, but ADR continues to grow.

Pricing has improved across the board, but most significantly in the leisure segment.

The GDS continues to be a major channel and properly positioning your hotels on this channel is important.

Loyalty continues to be an important factor in driving sales on Brand.com 2016 RevPAR growth (7-10%) will be balanced between occupancy (3-5%) and ADR (4-

6%), but with more ADR upside possible.

2016 Outlook

Page 23: TravelClick - hunterconference.com · TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook Business Intelligence Katie Moro Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships 03/16/16

Katie Moro March 18, 2016 This Presentation is Online: www.TravelClick.com

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