Travel Pres En
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Transcript of Travel Pres En
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Travel and
TourismF. X. MurrayOverview of the Travel andTourism Industry, its importance
to the global economy and thesignificance of civil aviation tothat industry.
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Travel & Tourism Data
1999 and 2010 High Lights
Global Data U. S. Data
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Travel & Tourism Data
and Supporting Reports
for the NASA Aeronautics Study
Prepared by SAIC
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Critique & Technical
Discussion of T & T Data
1993 Data
Criticisms Revisions
Recent Data System
Cautions
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Comparing 1994 & 1999
No adequate Documentation orDefinitions for 1994 Data
Terms not Comparable Estimating Techniques Different
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World Travel & Tourism Council
First Estimate of T & T Industry
Economic Data--1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001
Immediate Objectives
Support Free Trade in the Air
Emphasis on Air transport
Show significance of the T & TIndustry
T & T DATA HISTORY
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Criticisms of T & T Data
Industry Generated Data
Lacked Documentation &
Methodology Not Comparable with Existing
Economic Databases
Viewed by Others as Self-serving
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Recommendations ofProfessionals
Rigorous Methodology
Definitions and Documentation Links to Existing Official Economic
Data Bases
Credible Data Collection Entities
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Resulting Data System
Mostother OECD Countries NowProvide Compatible Data
UN Department of Economic &Social Affairs
Collects Data from Most Countries
Uses Methodology & Definitions
Compatible with OECD Countries
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Data for the U. S.
1995 Whitehouse ConferenceBEA to Develop Data System
Travel & Tourism SatelliteAccount Completed 1998
Methodology and DefinitionsRigorously Documented
Integrated into the U. S. Inputand Output Accounts
I-O Factors among IndustryGroups Developed
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United Nations Data
Collection
UN Department of Economic &
Social Affairs (Information Office)
and UN TourismOrganization Now Collecting Data from Most
Countries
Uses Methodology & Definitions
Compatible with OECD Countries
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Limitations of T & T SA U. S. Data Based on 1992
Business Census
Assumption--1992 relationships(Input-Output) hold until nextCensus
I-O Factors revised after 1998Business Census (Revisions DueLate 1999/Early 2000)
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World Travel & Tourism
Council 1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic
Impact Derived from 1998 Data
Projection for 2010 is Included
Global and Regional Forecasts for1999 and Projections for 2010
General Agreement onMethodology & Terms
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Limitations on NewlyReleased Forecasts &
Projections All OECD Countries Now Report
No Data from Many Smaller
Countries Regional Samples Used for
Some (Latin America, EasternEurope)
E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used toEstimate Latin America
Assumed Growth Rates to 2010
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Travel & Tourism
High Lights for 1999 Travel & Tourism Impact Direct
and Indirect upon the Global
Economy11% of GDP
200 Million Jobs
8% of Total Employment5.5 Million New Jobs per year until
2010
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U. S. Highlights
Data used in WTTC Data System
Importance of US in T & T Industry
Employment Capital Investment
Government Spending
Federal AgenciesState & Local
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Key Points from GlobalProjection For 2010 For
Travel & Tourism Real Growth 3.3% per year
Through 2010Economy GDP will be 11% of
Global GDP
Employment will be 9%
Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total
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T & T Forecast for 2010
Investment Government Expenditures to
Support T & T Increase at a
higher rate than in T & T
Global Capital Investment
$733 B in 1999 and projected to
be $1.5 Trillion by 2010. T & T Capital Investment Grows
Faster than Global Investment
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United States Data for T & T
Up to 25% of All Direct T & TExpenditures for Airfares
Largest Single Item
T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 Japan next highest at $389 B.
T & T GDP Projected at $1.8
Trillion by 2010
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U. S. Employment &
Government Spending T & T Economy accounts for
17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999
(13.2%) 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected
in 2010 (13.5%)
Governments spent $52.2 Billion
for T & T 1999
By 2010 Projected to reach $85Billion
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Analytical Tools:Direct Economic Factors
Economic Factors for USTransportation Direct Impact per $of Air Transport $ 1.00
Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14Other Transport = .15
Services, Misc. = .26
Value Added = .45
Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., & mfg.; OtherTransportation includes pipelines & own transport; Services
include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Govt.
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Direct & Indirect Economic
Factors Factors for US Air Transportation
Direct & Indirect Requirements:
Per $ of Air Transportation Service
Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35
Transportation = 1.17
Services = .47
Total = 1.99
The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1to $1: Indirect to Direct
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Travel & Tourism Factors Direct Products & Services
Required per $1 expended forTravel & Tourism in the U. S.
Air fares .25 Lodging .16
Meals, etc .14
Shopping .12
All Other .34
Total $1.00
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Cautionary Notes
Definitions for T & T EconomicMeasures are cumbersome and
difficult to master, e.g.1999 the T & T Industry GDP
is $1,328 Billion,
BUTT & T Economy GDP
is $3,549,
AND T & T Demand is$4,475 Billion
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Travel & Tourism
Industry GDP (Supply) Includes Direct Value Added
Associated with T & T Consumption
Consumer expenditures (durables,nondurables & services)
Travel and Tourism Business Sales(private & public)
Travel and Tourism governmentexpenditures
Travel and Tourism Foreign Trade(visitor exports)
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Travel & TourismEconomy GDP
Direct and IndirectValue Addedincluding
T & T Consumption T & T Capital Investment (Public
and Private)
Government Expenditures
T & T foreign Trade
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Travel and TourismDemand Includes
Personal Consumption (Durables,Non-durables, Services)
Business Travel (Corporate &Government)
Visitor Exports GovernmentExpenditures
Capital InvestmentNon-visitor Exports (World
Tourism)
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Industry Perspective of theT & T Satellite Account
Captures all economic activity relatedto persons traveling to and staying in
places outside their usualenvironment.
For purposes of Satellite Accountingthe optimal aggregated measurement
is best determined from the demandpoint of view
Industry prefers the T & T Demandmeasure (largest measure of activity)
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Gross Domestic Product forT & T
GDP of Tourism Industries (Directand Indirect GDP for Tourism
Consumption) Imports by Tourist Industries
Employment by Tourist Industries