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Transcript of TransVision 2005
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TransVision 2005TransVision 2005
Каракас, Венесуэла
Данила Медведев
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World Transhumanist AssociationWorld Transhumanist Association
• Всемирная Трансгуманистическая Ассоциация (World Transhumanist Association)– международная некоммерческая
организация– основана в 1998 году– 3000 зарегистрированных членов в 100
странах
www.transhumanism.org
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TransVisionTransVision
• Конференция TransVision – главное трансгуманистическое мероприятие года
• Проводится с 1998 (Голландия, Швеция, Англия, Германия, США, Канада, Венесуэла)
• TransVision 2005 (Каракас, Венесуэла) организована Венесуэльской Трансгуманистической Ассоциацией и венесуэльским отделением World Future Society
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УчастникиУчастники• Участники из более, чем 30 стран• «Ветераны» трансгуманистического
движения: Макс Мор, Наташа Вита-Мор, Ник Бостром, Джеймс Хьюз
• Руководители Академии Естественных Наук и министерства науки Венесуэлы
• Кинодокументалисты из Нью-Йорка и Нового Орлеана, снимающие фильмы о трансгуманизме
• Представитель раэлитов• Любители body modification
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Predicting mid-range global futures
(2005-2050)
Danila Medvedev, Russia
All original content in this presentation is dedicated to public domain. No rights reserved, use in any way.
• Этапы будущего• Методы изучения будущего• Трансгуманистический
подход
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Technology foresight
• Technology foresight started with the goal is to uncover the “emerging” technologies– 1960 – methodology (Delphi) developed by RAND– 1970 – Japan– 1971 – Soviet Union– early 1980s – socialist France– since then – 20-30 countries
• Advantages:– comprehensive methodology– specific predictions– scientific approach
• Supported by UNIDO and governments worldwide• Dissemination of results is an integral part (in theory)
Information availability• All the information is available to everybody
– fundamental science (textbooks, Internet)– news about progress (Internet, TV, press)– even the visions and predictions (Internet, books)
• The problems are– underexposure
“I want unlimited scientific discovery, and I want unlimited applications...We want to live forever, and we're getting there."
“I did not have sexual relations with that woman...”
— Bill Clinton, Millennium evening at the White House (October 1999)
— Bill Clinton, at the conclusion of a press conference in the White House (January 26, 1998)
Pre-singularity
• Pre-singularity time is the most important because of asymptotic exponential growth!
• Many eras are squeezed in a few decades!• The results determine the singularity.
Industrial (1815)
Atomic (1945)
Computer (1963) Biotech (1990)
Human changes (2010)
AI (2030)
Space (1957)
Nano (2020)
Robotics (2000)
NISTEP predictions• Examples from 1971, 1976 and 1981 technology
forecasts reports:– Possibility to a certain degree of working at home through
the use of TV-telephones, telefaxes, etc. (forecast: 1998)– Acquisition of observation data from unmanned probes
around Uranus, Neptune, Pluto and outside the solar system. (1999)
– Development of optical communication technology that can realize substantial savings in the use of copper. (1999)
– Possibility of external fertilization or artificial womb. (2001)– Widespread use of heart transplant from human being by
resolving problems such as transplant immunity, rejectionand donor. (2001)
– Practical use of rapid-transit railway using iron rail and iron wheel, which can run at 300 km/h. (2006)
– Development of artificial ear. (2007)• The combined realization and partial realization rate for
three surveys: 64%–71%• Specific, useful and relatively accurate predictions
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Общие впечатленияОбщие впечатления
+ Общение, новые контакты и знакомства
+ Обсуждение путей развития трансгуманистического движения
+ Новые идеи
– Слабая связь докладов с практикой (спекуляции «как всё может быть»)
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TransVision 2006TransVision 2006
Хельсинки, ФинляндияЛето 2006
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Национальный парк КанаймаНациональный парк Канайма
Водопад Ангел – cамый высокий водопад в мире (1 км), случайно открытый только в 1934 г.
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