Transportation Stat Courtney Quarles
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Transcript of Transportation Stat Courtney Quarles
STATISTICS OF
TRANSPORTATION SAFETY
by Courtney Quarles
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
Two types of Probability:
-Theoretical probability-Empirical probability
Theoretical Probability:
Applies to situations in which the sample space only contains equally likely outcomes, all of which are known.
Empirical Probability:
Applies to situations on which we observe the frequency of occurrence of an event.
WORDS TO KNOW
Computing Empirical Probability
The empirical probability of event E is
P(E) = Observed number of times E occurs
Total number of observed occurrences
Experiment: Any occurrence for which the outcome is uncertain, denoted by E.
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted by S.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT NOT OCCURRING
The Probability of an event not occurring
The probability that an event E will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability that it will occur.
P(not) = 1 - P(E)
OR PROBABILITIES WITH MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Mutually Exclusive events
If it is impossible for events A and B to occur simultaneously, the events are said to be mutually exclusive.
Or Probabilities with mutually Exclusive Events
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT
DYING ON AN AIRPLANE?
P (not) = 1 - P(E)
P (not dying in airplane) = 1- P (not dying in airplane)
P = 1 - (1/11,000,000)
P = 0.9999999091
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT DYING ON A MOTORCYCLE?
P (not) = 1 - P(E)
P (not dying in motorcycle) = 1 – P (not dying in motorcycle)
P = 1 – (1/1020)
P = 0.9990196078
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF NOT GETTING STRUCK BY A
METRO BUS?
P(not) = 1 - P(E)
P(not dying bicycling accident) = 1 - P(not dying in bicycle accident )
P = 1 – (1/4919)
P = 0.9997967066
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF DYING
ON THE SUBWAY METRO BUS?
P (not) = 1 - P(E)
P (not dying on the subway) = 1- P (not dying on the subway)
WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF DYING IN A MOTOR VEHICLE?
P (not) = 1 - P(E)
P (not dying in motor vehicle accident) = 1- P (not dying in motor vehicle accident)
P = 1 - (1/84)
P = 0.9880952381
WORKS CITED
Odds of Dying in Plane Crash. 2009. 6 December 2009.<http://www.rc-trucks.org/odds-of-dying-in-plane-crash.htm>
Britt, Robert Roy. “The Odds of Dying.” 2009. 5 December 2009. <http://www.livescience.com/environment/050106_odds_of_dying.html>
Kebabjian, Richard. “Plane crash Info.” 2009.
http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm
Bureau Of Transportation Statistics. 2009. 6 December 2009.
<http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html>