Transportation Planning

Modeling with EMME/2

Interconnectedness

Agencies Running The MAG Model

Maricopa County Regional Public Transportation

Authority Scottsdale Tempe

Agencies Supported

Buckeye Chandler Fountain Hills Phoenix ADOT Gila River Indian Community Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Mesa Pima Association of governments Peoria Phoenix Pima-Maricopa Indian Community US HUD

Components

Transportation Model Land Use Highway Network Transit Network Documentation

Major Updates

1984 Travel Demand Model (UTPS) 1979 Travel Speed Study 1980 On-Board Bus Survey 1981 Home Interview Survey

1990 Travel Model Update (UTPS) 1986 On-Board Bus Survey 1986 Travel Speed Study 1989 Home Interview Survey

1995 Conversion to EMME2 and Model Update 1989 Home Interview 1991 On-Board Bus Survey 1993 Travel Speed Study

Recent Improvements

Feedback to Trip Distribution HOV Modeling Graphics Model Flexibility Remote Access

Socioeconomic Variables

Residential Location Household Income Auto Ownership

Employment Location Type

Modeled Area

Area is 60 x90 miles 29 Member Agencies 1541 Transportation Analysis Zones

Modeled Area

Area is 60 x90 miles 29 Member Agencies 1541 Transportation Analysis Zones

Transportation Model Feedback

MAG Transportation Model

Trip Purpose Stratification

Home-Based Work Income Group Stratification

Home-Based Shopping Home-Based Other Home-Based School

Elementary/Secondary Arizona State University Other University

Non-Home Based Non-Home-Based Other Non-Home-Based Work

Trip Generation

Trip Production j = f (Household size j, Household

income j)

Trip Attraction j = f (Retail Employment j, other

employment j, households j)

Productions and Attractions

Network Level of Service

Highway Travel distance ij Travel time ij Travel Cost

Transit Walk time ij First wait ij In-vehicle time ij Transfer time ij Fare ij Number of transfers Drive access areas Walk access areas

Trip Distribution

Tij = Trips from Zone i to Zone j Aj = trip Attraction in Zone jPi = Trip Production in Zone i Fij =Effect of travel time & distance

between Zone i & Zone j

Pi(Aj x Fij)(Aj x Fij)

Tij =

Transit Access Coding

AM Peak Period Bus Travel Time Factor

TRAVEL TIME FACILITY TYPEAREA TYPESERVICEFACTOR

1.44FREEWAYS1 - 5EXPRESS

1.53SURFACE ROADS1 - 3EXPRESS

1.83SURFACE ROADS4 - 5EXPRESS

1.66ALL1 - 3LOCAL

1.90ALL4 - 5LOCAL

3.00ALL1 - 5SHUTTLE

AM PEAK PERIOD

Walk Access Path Building Parameters

WEIGHTTIME (MIN)

2.003.00BOARDING

1.00½ HEADWAYWAIT

2.0060*((walk dist)/3)WALK ACCESS

2.0060*((walk dist)/3)WALK EGRESS

Multinomial Logit Structure

Choice

Drive Alone Shared RideTransit WalkAccess

Transit DriveAccess

2 Occupants 3 Occupants 4+ Occupants

Mode Choice

Pij = Probability of using transit for a trip between Zone i to Zone j

Transit untilityij = f (transit level of serviceij , incomei )

Auto utilityij = f (highway level of service ij , income ij

Home Based Work

19901990% errorEstimatedObservedHome Based Work

Income Category 10.30%175,069.00174,545.68Auto

-4.53%11,453.0011,996.35Transit Walk Access4.37%455.00435.97Transit Drive Access0.00%186,978.00186,978.00Total

Income Category 2-0.08%226,285.00226,469.55Auto2.03%8,050.007,889.46Transit Walk Access2.48%949.00926.00Transit Drive Access

-0.00%235,284.00235,285.00Total

Income Category 30.03%1,114,269.001,113,951.49Auto

-2.95%9,511.009,800.08Transit Walk Access-0.84%3,368.003,396.43Transit Drive Access

0.001,127,149.001,127,148.00Total

Observed vs. Estimated Trips by Mode

Home Based Non-WorkObserved vs. Estimated Trips by Mode

19901990% errorEstimatedObservedHome Based Non-work

Income Category 1-0.16%530,699.00531,568.99Auto4.54%20,196.0019,319.67Transit Walk Access

-1.40%448.00454.34Transit Drive Access

Income Category 2-0.03%521,888.00522,050.92Auto2.78%7,318.007,120.04Transit Walk Access

-10.43%301.00336.04Transit Drive Access

Income Category 3-0.01%2,561,486.002,561,758.01Auto2.95%9,152.008,889.99Transit Walk Access1.05%959.00949.00Transit Drive Access

Non-home BasedObserved vs. Estimated Trips by Mode

19901990% errorEstimatedObservedNon-Home Based0.01%2,072,398.002,072,182.00Auto

-2.43%7,980.008,179.00Transit Walk Access-4.12%372.00388.00Transit Drive Access

Transit TripsThousands

Transit BoardingsThousands

Transit Transfer Rate

1980 Weekday 24-hour CountsI-10: East of 40th Street

Actual vs. Estimated Counts

Highway Travel ForecastingAccuracy of Models in Phoenix and Other Planning Areas

Population and Average Daily VMT

Regional Freeway Priorities

Planned Street ImprovementsConstruct or Widen

2000-20102011-2019

Regional Transit Plan

More Frequent ServiceNew Service

Carbon Monoxide ConcentrationsProjected for December 1995

1995 Freeway TrafficAWDT Volumes (000) and V/C Ratios

Based on 1995 HOV Traffic Assignmentand Freeway Management System Counts

Current Projects

Updating Documentation External Travel Survey Household Travel Survey Changing to New Computers

Transportation Planning

Modeling with EMME/2