Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work...
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Transcript of Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work...
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines Work Group Meeting
presented by
Christopher WornumCambridge Systematics, Inc.
June 28, 2007
New Approaches to Understanding the demand for Transit
Market-Based Planning ProcessFrom Private Sector to Public Sector
Private SectorPrivate Sector
ToyotaToyota
Mobility ServicesMobility ServicesMobility ServicesMobility Services
Door-to-Door ServiceConsistent Customer Experience
Walk Wait Board Pay Seat Ride Arrival Walk Errands
• Distance
• Esthetics
• Barriers
• Weather
•Headway
•Arrival information
•Shelter Comfort
•Safety
•Low floor
•Queuing
•Speed
•Fare
•Convenience
•Transfer
•Availability
•Comfort
•Privacy
•Speed
•Comfort
•Productive
•Reliability
•Way Finding
•Transfer
•Distance
•Esthetics
•Barriers
•Alternative modes
•Weather
• Access
• Emergencies
• Modes
• Schedule
Home Work
Re
lati
ve
Im
po
rta
nc
e
Branding &Marketing
Competitive Positioning
Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers
Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation
Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis
Understand MarketsUnderstand Markets
Origin – Destination VolumesOrigin – Destination Volumes
Other Travel Market ConditionsOther Travel Market Conditions
ServicePlanning Tool
(SPT)
TransitCompetitiveness
Factor(TCF)
RoadmapFrom Market Research to Service Planning
Service Planning
(Product Development)
Determine Traveler Attitudes
Value of Time Value of Time & Productivity& Productivity Transportation CostsTransportation Costs CrowdsCrowds StressStress
Personal SafetyPersonal SafetyConcern for theConcern for the
Natural EnvironmentNatural EnvironmentNeed for Flexibility Need for Flexibility
and Speedand SpeedPersonal Travel Personal Travel
ExperienceExperience
Key Attitude Number 2
The people who ride the trolley are like me
• The people who ride city buses are like me
• The people who ride the Coaster commuter train are like me
• I would (not) prefer to drive than to be driven
• I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable
• Generally I make the same types of trips at the same times of day
• The type of transportation that people use (does not) reflect their social status
Sensitivity to PersonalTravel Experience
100%
96%
67%
27%
22%
10%
8%
Concern for Concern for EnvironmentEnvironment
Universal Design Service AttributesImportant for Entire Service Population
Flexibility & SpeedFlexibility & Speed
Range of Attitudes for all Potential CustomersAll Market Segments Combined
More Sensitive
0.50.5 1.01.0 1.51.5 2.02.0 2.52.5 3.03.0 3.53.5
Less Sensitive
-1.5-1.5 -1.0-1.0 -0.5-0.5-2.0-2.0-3.0-3.0 -2.5-2.5-3.5-3.5
Indifferent
00
Personal TravelPersonal TravelExperienceExperience
Personal SafetyPersonal Safety
Time &Time &ProductivityProductivity
CostCost
StressStress
CrowdsCrowds
High Sensitivity toExperience
Road Runners
MediumSensitivity toExperience
Structure of Market Segments San Diego Region
Residents in SANDAG Service Area
Less Need For Flexibility & Speed More Need For Flexibility & Speed
HighSensitivity toExperience
ConventionalCruisers
LowSensitivity toExperience
Easy Goers
High Sensitivity to
Personal Safety
Cautious Runabouts
LowSensitivity toExperience
Flexible Flyers
LowSensitivity to
Personal Safety
Intrepid Trekkers
“Need for flexibility and speed”
“Personal travel experience”
“Sensitivity topersonal safety”
Quantifying Tradeoffs How Much Do Flexible Flyers Value Different Options?
Having real time arrival informationHaving real time arrival information
Save 5 minute in-vehicle travel timeSave 5 minute in-vehicle travel time
Improve peak headway by 5 minImprove peak headway by 5 min
Save 5 minute driving accessSave 5 minute driving access
Reduce cost by 50 centsReduce cost by 50 cents
ShuttleShuttle
No transferNo transfer
Guaranteed seatGuaranteed seat
Save 5 minute parking search timeSave 5 minute parking search time
Improve off-peak headway by 5 minImprove off-peak headway by 5 min
Save 5 minute walking access timeSave 5 minute walking access time
Competitive PositioningExisting Assets
Local governmentcooperation
Financial resources
Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers
Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation
Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis
ServicePlanning Tool
(SPT)
Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets
Service Planning Tool
Segmentation & SEM
Segment Locations & Characteristics
Travel Demand Model Output
Trip Tables
Base LOSIVTT
FrequenciesTransit NetworkParking Supply
FaresSeat Availability
Census Data or Travel Model
Socioeconomics
Service Planning ToolArcGIS User Interface
Network StructurePerformance VariablesCustomer Experience
RidershipMode
Peak vs. Off-peakTrip Purpose
Segment-Specific Mode Choice Models
Quantify Tradeoffs between Service Characteristics
Understand CustomersUnderstand Customers
Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation
Mode Choice AnalysisMode Choice Analysis
Understand MarketsUnderstand Markets
Origin – Destination VolumesOrigin – Destination Volumes
Other Travel Market ConditionsOther Travel Market Conditions
TransitCompetitiveness
Factor(TCF)
Strategic RoadmapUnderstanding Markets
Understanding MarketsIdentify Places Where Transit is Competitive
Trip Intensity Trip generation & attraction Time of day Trip purpose
Competitive Advantage for TransitCongestionTransit priorityParking scarcity and Price
Concentration of Target Market Segments
Transit Competitiveness Factor (TCF)Each Factor Weighted by Ability to Generate Transit Trips
Transit Competitiveness
Factor
Transportation Land Use Factors
Customer Types Trip Purposes
Trip Density
Parking Search Time
Parking Cost
Auto Access, Egress Time
Congestion
Pedestrian Friendliness
Road Runners
Cautious Runabouts
Intrepid Trekkers
Flexible Flyers
Conventional Cruisers
Easy Goers
Work
School
Other
Transit Competitive
11 percent of trips go to transit competitive destinations
Destination TCF Transit competitive threshold = 30 jobs per gross acre