Transport Market Monitor Edition: 25 (November 2015)
16
Transport Market Monitor Transport prices remain high due to low capacity Edition: 25 (November 2015)
Transcript of Transport Market Monitor Edition: 25 (November 2015)
Transport Market Monitor
Transport prices remain high due to low capacity
Edition: 25 (November 2015)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 2
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Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 3
Summary
This is the twenty-fifth edition of the Transport Market Monitor.
It outlines developments in European road transport rates and
includes the figures of the third quarter of 2015.
● The price index decreased by 4.1% in Q3 2015, leading to
an index of 100.6.
● In Q3 2015, the diesel index decreased by 5.4% to an
index of 85.8. This is the lowest index value in six years.
● Despite the low diesel index, the price index remains on a
high level. This is due to the low capacity index.
● The capacity index increased to 77.5 (14.4%). However,
the capacity index in Q3 2015 was 10.5% lower than in Q3
2014 (index 86.6).
● When comparing to the index level of the previous year
(index 99.4), Q3 2014, the price index is 1.2% higher.
These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly
publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.
This report is the twenty-fifth edition of the
Transport Market Monitor. Each quarter, a
new edition will outline the developments
during the past three months and reviews
additional themes in transportation.
All indices in this report are based on the
logistics platform TRANSPOREON, which
handles a yearly transport volume
(different truck types, mainly FTL and
LTL), covering all European countries.
Information is anonymously exported from
the platform and aggregated analyzed by
Capgemini Consulting.
The figures in the Transport Market
Monitor date back to January 2008: the
earliest point of measurement of the index
figures. For all indices, the average
figures of the six months period January
2008 till June 2008 have been set as the
basis for comparison (Index 100).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 4
Transport price index remains high
This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the
quarterly developments of the price and capacity index, since
the beginning of the measurements in 2008 until the third
quarter of 2015.
The price index (see Figure 1) decreased by 4.1% in Q3 2015
(index 100.6), compared to the price index in Q2 2015 (index
104.9). Despite the difference with the previous quarter, the
price index remains high. When comparing to the index level
of the previous year, Q3 2014, we see that the price index is
1.2% higher this year.
In Q3 2015, the capacity index increased to 77.5 (14.4%).
Despite this increase, the capacity index was still at a low point.
The capacity index in Q3 2015 was 10.5% lower than Q3 2014
(index 86.6). Moreover, the Q3 capacity index is the second lowest index since Q3 2011 (76.5).
Figure 1: Transport price and capacity index, quarterly (Q3 2009 – Q3 2015)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 1 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
94.6 94.8
88.9
100.9 101.7 102.1
96.4
103.9
101.2 100.6
92.7
99.4 100.0 98.2
90.2
100.6 100.0 101.2
91.5
100.0 99.4 98.2
94.5
104.9
100.6
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Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315
Cap
ac
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nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (quarterly figures)
Price index Capacity index
The price index is calculated by
comparing the average price per
kilometer over time.
The Capacity Index is an indicator for
“available capacity”, the ratio between
absolute demand and capacity. The
capacity index is calculated by comparing
the average number of bids in response
to a transport request over time.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 5
Capacity index sharply decreases after growth period
This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and capacity
index over the last twelve months. In July (+3.7%) and August (+18.9%) the capacity index continued to grow.
This led to a decrease in the price index. However, due to a strong decrease in capacity in September
(-23.7%), the price index increased again.
Figure 2: Transport price and capacity index, monthly (Oct 2014 – Sep 2015)
100.6
95.1
98.8
95.7
91.5
95.7
101.8
107.3
104.9
100.6
97.6
103.1
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60
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90
100
110
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130
80
85
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100
105
110
Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15
Ca
pa
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nd
ex
Pri
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in
de
x
Price and capacity index (month by month)
Price index Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 6
Figure 3 compares the monthly development of the price index over the last twelve months, to the same
period one year before. As in the previous two quarters of 2015, the Q3 prices remain higher than last year.
However, the gap became smaller in September.
Figure 3: Transport price index comparison, monthly (Oct 2013 – Sept 2015)
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100
105
110
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index comparison
Oct. '13 - Sep. '14 (Price index same period, last year) Oct. '14 - Sep. '15 (Price index last 12 months)
-4.3 -1.8 -2.4
2.4 3.7
2.4 2.4
9.1
3.0 1.2
2.4 0.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Difference in index points
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 7
Figure 4 compares the monthly development of the capacity index during the previous twelve months to the
same period one year before. The capacity index comparison shows that capacity in 2015 has been lower
than in 2014. Yet, in Q3 2015 the capacity index followed the trend of 2014, with a sharp decline of the
capacity index in September.
Figure 4: Transport capacity index comparison, monthly (Oct 2013 – Sep 2015)
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140
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Ca
pa
cit
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nd
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Capacity index comparison
Oct. '13 – Sep. '14 (Capacity index same period, last year) Oct. '14 – Sep. '15 (Capacity index last 12 months)
7.0 13.0
3.0
-10.0 -12.0 -8.0 -6.0
-23.0
-4.0
-14.0 -8.0
-4.0
-30
-20
-10
0
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30
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Difference in indexpoints
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 8
Industry focus
General economic conditions apply to most industries, but
trends may be stronger or weaker in individual industries.
Analysis of the price index by the type of industry identifies
these differences, visualized in Figure 5.
In Q3 2015 all three industries displayed a decrease in their
respective price indices, which is in line with the pattern
observed in the previous year. The biggest change is found in
the index for construction materials with a decrease of 4.9%.
The paperboard/print market decreased by 3.4%, and the
price index decrease for timber is 1.5%.
Figure 5: Transport price index for different industries (Q1 2008 – Q3 2015)
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Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315
Pri
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Price index Construction materials
Construction Materials
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Price index Timber
Timber
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Pri
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Price index Paperboard / Print
Paperboard / Print
The TRANSPOREON platform handles
transport for almost all industries. For this
edition of the Transport Market Monitor,
different industry types have been
analyzed individually.
Each chart in Figure 5 depicts the price
development for that particular industry,
indexed against the industry baseline
(H1 2008)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 9
Price difference remains stable
This section outlines transport dynamics, by analysing the price difference between the highest and the lowest
price offered per transport order. Figure 6 illustrates the price difference between offers, and the development
of the capacity index. The price difference shows a minor increase from 16.5% in Q2 to 16.6% in Q3.
Figure 6: Transport capacity index and price difference (Q3 2009 – Q3 2015)
The price difference is an average figure. In general, price differences increase with the distance to be
travelled (see TMM, edition 1). Figure 6 shows the differences of the last 25 quarters.
21%
26%
22%
13%
17% 16%
19%
11%
14%
15%
20%
14% 16%
19%
22%
17% 18% 17%
21%
18% 18% 18%
19%
16% 17%
0%
5%
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15%
20%
25%
30%
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Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315
Dif
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etw
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rs
Cap
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nd
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Capacity index and price difference (quarterly)
Price difference between offers Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 10
Diesel index drops to six-year low
This section compares the price index with the diesel index
(see Figure 7). In general there is a positive correlation
between the diesel index and the price index, clearly indicating
the impact of diesel prices on transportation costs and
consequently prices.
In Q3 2015, the diesel index decreased to 85.8 (-5.4%),
ending up at its lowest level since Q3 2009. The price index
decreased as well, to 100.6 (-4.1%).
Figure 7: Transport price index and diesel index (Q3 2009 – Q3 2015)
84.3 86.1
89.1
93.5 91.2
93.7
99.0
104.7 104.0 106.1
109.2 107.5
110.3 109.2
105.6 103.8
105.9 103.5
101.0 101.5 101.0
93.7
86.1
90.7
85.8
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Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315
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Price and diesel index (Quarterly)
Price Index Diesel Index
5.0% 2.1%
3.5% 4.9%
-2.4%
2.7% 5.6% 5.8%
-0.7%
2.0% 2.9%
-1.5%
2.6%
-1.0% -3.3%
-1.8%
2.1%
-2.3% -2.4%
0.5%
-0.5%
-7.2% -8.1%
5.3%
-5.4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Change in diesel index (%) vs. previous quarter
For the diesel index, the average figures
of the six month period January 2008 till
June 2008 have been set as the basis for
comparison (index 100), similar to the
other indices used in this report.
The calculation of the diesel index is
based on diesel price figures in Germany,
obtained from www.aral.de. We assume
that the index pattern, based on the
above figures, is representative for
Europe for the purpose of this report.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 11
European Trade Flow Index
This section features the European Trade Flow Index (ETFI).
The ETFI is derived from the Capgemini Consulting’s Global
Trade Flow Index, a measure of worldwide trade. The volume
of trade is a strong driver for transport demand and
corresponding prices.
In Q3 2015 trade volumes are expected to decrease by 3.6%
to €2010 bln in Europe compared to Q2 2015 (€2085 bln). The
decrease is a break with the trend shown in previous quarters
in which the trade flows increased, displaying an ongoing
recovery of European trade. However, compared to the same
period in 2014 (€2004 bln), still an increase of 0.6% is
witnessed.
Figure 8: Trade Flow Index for Europe (Q4 2011 – Q3 2015E)
1942
1995
1979
2001
1961
1976
1956
1969 1969
1989 1989
2004
2018
2037
2085
2010
2.7%
-0.8%
1.1%
-2.0%
0.8%
-1.0%
0.6% 0.0%
1.0%
0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%
2.4%
-3.6%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315E
Gro
wth
of
trad
e (
qu
art
er
on
qu
art
er)
To
tal tr
ad
e v
alu
e (
in b
illi
on
s)
Value (Billion €) Growth (%)
Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade
Flow Index tracks the trade of goods and
services by quarter based on an analysis
of a number of trade and market-related
parameters from the latest available
official data (related to the import and
export of goods and services) from
national agencies. It is tailored to the
European market for this report, providing
the European Trade Flow Index.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 12
Additional services related to the TMM
Transport Market Developments
A portfolio of offerings
Transport Market Radar
Information on the most recent price and capacity developments in the European transport market
Monthly dashboard about transports in Europe and within Germany Industry focus for transports within Germany Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor
Provides key insights in the European transport market with the quarterly overview of the most important trends
Quarterly report Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 13
Next edition
This edition looked at the price and capacity developments since the beginning of the Transport Market
Monitor in 2008. It outlined the price decrease in Q3 2015 compared to Q2 2015.
The next edition, number 26, will include the figures for Q4 2015. It will be published in February 2016.
About the Transport Market Monitor
The aim of the Transport Market Monitor is to provide insights into the development of transport prices, and
other transport market dynamics to logistics executives and other interest groups. It is a joint initiative of
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting.
The indices in the Monitor are based on the logistics platform TRANSPOREON, on which shippers tender and
process their transport needs to their preferred transport partners on a daily basis. The platform handles a
yearly transport volume of over €2 billion in all European countries. Anonymously, information is unlocked
from the platform and analyzed by Capgemini Consulting. This results in monthly indices which are published
on a quarterly basis. In addition to each publication of the Monitor, one or more market themes are discussed,
supported by detailed analysis.
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can help you to find the right strategy between static and
dynamic prices. Additional information about both companies and their service offerings is available upon
request.
This report is available at http://www.transportmarketmonitor.com. More information about the products and
services of both TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can be obtained via the contact information
provided at the back of this report.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
TMM-team:
Capgemini Consulting: Sander Fischer (NL), Thomas Fortgens (NL), Erik van Dort (NL), Milko Teofilov (DE),
Veronika Wehlmann (DE), Christian Österle (DE)
TRANSPOREON: Peter Förster (DE), Katja Hufeland (DE)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 14
About Capgemini and TRANSPOREON
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Learn more about us at: www.capgemini.com
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and the retail logistics platform MERCAREON. More
than 380 employees are on site throughout Europe,
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Learn more about us at: www.transporeon.com
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 15
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TRANSPOREON
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E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland:
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