Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Lew FultonInternational Energy Agency, Paris

www.iea.org

Better Air Quality Conference

12 November, Bangkok

Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia:

Where are We Going and How do We Change it?


A talk in two parts

Where are we going?

How do we change it?


IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Baseline: Liquid Fuels to 2050

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

By so

urce

By se

ctor

By so

urce

By se

ctor

By so

urce

By se

ctor

mill

ion

ba

rre

ls p

er

da

y

Transport

Non-transport

Synfuels

Biofuels

Processing gains

Shale oil

Oil sands

Arctic/deep water

Conv. oil (other)

Conv. oil (OPEC)

2005

2030

2050


IEA ETP 2008Baseline Transport Energy Demand Projection

About a tripling world-wide, 2005-2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Exaj

oule

s

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

India

Other Asia

China

Eastern Europe

FSU

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

OECD North America


IEA ETP 2008 - AsiaBaseline Transport Energy Use Projection

About an 8-fold increase, 2005-2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Exaj

oule

s

IndiaOther AsiaChina


IEA ETP 2008 - AsiaBaseline Transport Energy Demand Projection

By Mode

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Exaj

oule

s

Aircraft

Shipping

Rail

2-3 Wheelers

Buses

Trucks

Cars


ETP vehicle ownership projectionsCars per 1000 as a function of GDP/cap

Personal income, thousand real USD (using PPPs) per capita

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0

OECD North AmericaCanadaMexicoUSA

OECD EuropeFranceGermanyItalyUKOther OECD Europe

OECD PacificAustralia and NZJapanKorea

FSURussiaAsian TE

Eastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin America

BrazilOther LA

AfricaSouth Africa

*Based on a scenario where ownership/income relationships in non-OECD countries track those in OECD countries; Income growth based on OECD/WB projections


Ownership close-up for Asia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

$0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0

Japan

Korea

Asian TE

China

Other Asia

India


ETP vehicle ownership projections Total car stocks by region

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Other AfricaSouth AfricaOther LABrazil

Middle EastIndiaOther AsiaChinaEastern Europe

Asian TERussiaKoreaJapanAustralia and NZOther OECD EuropeUKItalyGermanyFranceUSAMexicoCanada


Why should we care?1: energy security and balance of payments

International oil costs will account for transfers on order of USD 2 trillion during 2008

Dramatic price swings will probably continue

Consumers are unlikely to address the problem without government help Higher fuel prices will have only a small effect on

demand for vehicles We will need massive investments in efficient

transport infrastructure


2. IPCC: we need a global 50% CO2 cut by 2050 IEA ETP 2008: Where CO2 reductions come from

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(G

t C

O2

/yr)

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 62

WEO 2007 450 ppm New ETP2008 analysis

Power

Industry

Buildings

Transport


ETP Scenarios: Transport CO2 Emissions


ETP and Modal ShiftETP does not include travel behaviour changes,

except some modal shift: Passenger – hold transit shares to 60% rather than drop to

30% by 2030, via strong BRT and NMT investments Passenger – high-speed rail investments sufficient to

induce a shift of 5% of highway trips and 10% of air trips to rail in 2030

Freight – rail investments sufficient to cut trucking over 750km by 25% in 2030

Net effect is a 20% reduction in car travel, 10% reduction in truck travel compared to baseline case in 2030 The problem is that travel increases 4-6 fold in baseline


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Litr

es

pe

r 1

00

km

OECD North AmericaOECD Europe

OECD Pacific

FSU

Eastern Europe

China

Other Asia

India

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

MPG14.7

16.8

19.6

23.5

29.4

39.2

58.8

Vehicle fuel economy, new salesBaseline ETP

Fuel economy does improve in the baseline scenario, but not much after 2015

The new CAFE law in US and the Top runner in Japan are included. In Europe fuel economy reaches 130g CO2 per km by 2015


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

OECD North America

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

FSU

Eastern Europe

China

Other Asia

India

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

MPG

14.7

16.8

19.6

23.5

29.4

39.2

58.8

Vehicle fuel economy, stockBaseline ETP

New car improvements are passed on to the total stock, but stock turnover takes time


Resulting LDV (Car, SUV) Fuel Use in Asian Regions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Billi

on li

ters

of g

asol

ine

equi

vale

nt

India

Other Asia

China


How LDVs can achieve large oil use and CO2 emissions reductions

Efficiency improvement generally is our cheapest option Clearly our most important near term option

Electric and hydrogen vehicles are important long-term options, but will take time Plug-in hybrids are a likely first step

Biofuels could be important, but only if sustainable and really deliver CO2 reductions – big questions


ETP 2008: Low Cost Transport Option

New LDVs can become 50% more efficient by 2030 In some countries, progress toward this 50%

target has already begun This is, very roughly, moving from 8 L/100 km to 4. EU

is already well below 8. Some individual vehicles, like Prius are there already

Involves maximum use of available technology, including hybrids

Important to constrain increases in vehicle size, weight and power

Plug-in hybrids may play a significant role if battery costs come down further


IEA ETP 2008:New LDV Fuel Economy


IEA Estimates: FE improvement potential in OECD Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Conventional Gasoline Vehicle

Advanced Gasoline Vehicle

Hybrid Gasoline Vehicle

Conventional Diesel Vehicle

Advanced Diesel Vehicle

Hybrid Diesel Vehicle

Perc

ent I

mpr

ovem

ent i

n Fu

el E

cono

my

(red

uctio

n in

fuel

use

) (L/

100k

m)

Based on an analysis of technology potential and current market penetrations for engines, drive-trains, components, weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements


IEA Fuel Economy Estimates: Range of Technology Costs and Fuel

Savings per Vehicle

The fuel savings values in this figure can be obtained from the FE improvement estimates in previous figure and either of the following assumptions: a) fuel saved over 200k km of driving, oil at $60/bbl, no tax; or b) fuel saved over 100k km of driving, $100/bbl, $0.25/litre fuel tax.

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

Cost range

Fuel Savings

Cost range

Fuel Savings

Cost range

Fuel Savings

Conventional Gasoline

Advanced Gasoline

Hybrid


LDV Technology CostsETP: Net cost per tonne CO2

-$400

-$200

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

2015 2030 2050

Gasoline vehicle maximprovements

Diesel vehicle maximprovements

Gasoline Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid (opt)

Plug-in hybrid (pes)

FC Vehicle (opt)

FC Vehicle (pes)

EV (opt)

EV (pes)

more than $1000

Opt: optimistic, pes; pessimistic; based on $60/bbl oil and undiscounted vehicle and fuel costs


ETP: Cumulative Additional Investment and Fuel Savimgs

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

ACT Map

Blue Map

ACT Map

Blue Map

ACT Map

Blue Map

ACT Map

Blue Map

ACT Map

Blue Map

US

D t

rill

ion

(2

00

5-2

05

0)

Total

Biomass

Gas

Oil

Coal

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

Distribution

Transmission

Power Plant

Transformation

Investment Fuel savings Total

Undiscounted 3% 10%


Biofuels Use in BLUE Map26% of Transport Fuel Use in 2050


Biofuels Land Use in BluePerhaps about 150 million hectares worldwide

Based on yields for different feedstocks reported in literature; assumes 100% from agricultural/forest crops; other sources like residues would reduce land requirement.


ConclusionsWithout policy interventions oil use in Asian countries

may expand by an order of magnitude by 2050Reduction in vehicle travel growth rates will be key,

via strong transit investments and comlementary measures

It appears reasonable to target a 50% reduction in vehicle energy intensity, on average around the world by 2030 However we need better data on baseline values and

current trends in individual countries

Biofuels, EVs, possibly FCVs will play a role; but extent and timing is quite uncertain for each

Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?

Technology

Transcript of Transport, Energy and CO2 in Asia: Where are We Going and How do We Change it?