Transmission Business Review Wall Street Access/Berenson & Co. JANUARY 11, 2007
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Transcript of Transmission Business Review Wall Street Access/Berenson & Co. JANUARY 11, 2007
Transmission Business ReviewWall Street Access/Berenson & Co.
JANUARY 11, 2007
Lee Olivier – President NU Transmission Group
Energy / Growth / Leadership
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Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, plans, objectives, future financial performance and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, actions by state and federal regulatory bodies; competition and industry restructuring; changes in economic conditions; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; expiration or initiation of significant energy supply contracts; changes in levels of capital expenditures; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; volatility in electric and natural gas commodity markets; effectiveness of our risk management policies and procedures; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of electricity positions; the methods, timing and results of the disposition of competitive businesses; actions of rating agencies; terrorist attacks on domestic energy facilities; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made.
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Agenda for Today
1. National Transmission Issues and Trends2. New England Overview3. NU Transmission Update
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About Northeast Utilities Transmission…
Operating Company
Transmission Circuit Miles
Transmission Substations
Projected 12/31/06
Rate Base($ Millions)
Projected 12/31/11
Rate Base($ Millions)
CL&P 1,766 103 862 2,428
WMECO 489 36 76 245
PSNH 1,003 52 134 322
Total NU 3,258 191 1,072 2,995
Comparative Ranking of NU (miles) • Largest in New England
• 4th largest in 11 northeast states
• Nearly 2.4 million retail customers
• About 280 miles of new transmission planned
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Transmission Will Grow to Become a Bigger Portion of NU’s Rate Base
Transmission to comprise much larger share of total rate base
2005 Rate Base Composition 2005 Rate Base: $3.3 billion
18%
14%
68% TransmissionGasDist. & Reg. Generation
2011E Rate Base Composition 2011E Rate Base: $7.9 billion
38%
9%
53%
TransmissionGasDist. & Reg. Generation
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The August 2003 Blackout …
Illustrative only
… Led Congress to Pass the Energy Policy Act of 2005
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Implementation of Mandatory Reliability Standards Creates Potential Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges: Must demonstrate compliance with standards through the ERO
and Regional Entities or face civil penalties Higher costs associated with compliance Reputational and financial risk should there be poor performance
Opportunities: Small transmission operators, or those with limited management
talent or constrained capital may wish to exit this business, thereby leading to some industry consolidation
Regulatory changes may create opportunities for top-performing utilities – those with the financial and organizational resources to mitigate risks
Additional capital investment in areas with identified reliability needs may be required
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What Will it Take to Build New Transmission?
Who will make the investments needed? Merchant transmission – disappointing track record to date due to high risk of
cost recovery Transcos – good business model, however comprising only 3% of all
transmission Investor-owned utilities – represent the lion’s share of the assets
0123456789$ Billions
(inflation adjusted)
Annual Transmission Investments (2005$)
Source: 1976-2005 EEI Statistical Yearbook/2005 Data2006-2009 EEI Electric Transmission & Capital Budget and Forecast Survey
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Our View on the Necessary Enablers for New Transmission
Regulatory certainty around the following:
Clear, enforceable national and regional reliability standards
An independent regional planning process that integrates and prioritizes needs
Timely, efficient siting process with federal back stop siting as appropriate
Well defined cost allocation rules
Level and timing of financial incentives
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New England is Seeing Significant Investment in Transmission
ISO-New England 2006 Regional System Plan – Highlights Complete transmission projects ($3.4 billion in reliability projects) Other RSP initiatives:
Need for new generation resources by 2009 Encourage more demand response and energy efficiency Enhance fuel diversity Improve reliability of natural gas resources Develop new gas supplies Improve monitoring and control of the grid Improve coordination with neighboring systems Comply with ERO and regional reliability standards
7% NGRID
4% Bangor Hydro 1% Central Maine Power
59% NU
12% Vermont
9% UI
8% NStar
Source: ISO-New England 2006 Regional System Plan
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Status of Connecticut Transmission Infrastructure
Within Connecticut transmission constraints exist that limit the flow of power from external sources
Significant transmission enhancements are under construction in SW Connecticut to meet that area’s needs
Future projects are in the planning phase to address power flows into Connecticut
345-kV Lines
Norwalk-Stamford
Southwest Connecticut
Connecticut
Boundaries of Major Constraints
Power Moves into Connecticut Power Moves into Connecticut and SWCT from MA and RIand SWCT from MA and RI
345-kV Lines under construction
Percentage of Peak Load that Could Be Served by Transmission Imports
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NH VT RI MA ME CT
With import capability of only 2,500 MW, CT is the
least interconnected state in New England.
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Four Major SW Connecticut Projects – A $1.65 Billion Investment
SWCT improvements have been a top priority in each of ISO-NE’s last four regional transmission expansion plans. Our four major
projects there total about $1.65 billion in investment.
50% of CT Load
Bethel-Norwalk 345 kV Underground& Overhead$350 Million 21 miles 345kV
(56% underground)
10 miles 115kV (100% underground)
Completed October 2006 at a cost of $340 million Middletown-Norwalk 345 kV
Underground & Overhead$1,047 Million (NU Share)Glenbrook Cables
115 kV underground$183 Million 9 miles 115kV underground
Projected in-service date: 2008
Under contract – construction under way, 10% complete
Long Island Cable138 kV cross sound$72 Million (NU share) 11 miles 138kV submarine cable
Joint project with LIPA
Projected in-service date: 2008
Under contract – cable being manufactured
69 miles 345kV (35% underground)
57 miles 115kV (1% underground)
Joint project with United Illuminating
Projected in-service date: 2009
Construction under way, 15% complete
COMPLETE
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Southern New England Transmission Reinforcement Projects Are the Next Major Undertaking
Planning
Construction
Siting
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The SNETR projects solve four area problems:
1. Interstate transfer capability
2. Connecticut East-West transfer capability
3. Springfield Reliability
4. New England East-West transfer capability
2006 Activities:
• Complete planning studies
• Analyze routing options
2007 Activities:
• Begin siting process in Connecticut and Massachusetts
• ISO-NE technical approval
1
4
3
2
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LUDLOW MILBURY
CARD
NORTHBLOOMFIELD
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Springfield
Interstate
FROSTBRIDGE
AGAWAM WEST FARNUM
KENT COUNTY
LAKE ROAD
We Have Selected the Southern New England Transmission Reinforcement Project Preferred Routes
The four components, identified to date, are:The four components, identified to date, are:
A Rhode Island Reliability Component
A CT East-West Reliability Component
A Springfield Reliability Component
An Interstate Reliability Component
Total Planning Grade Estimate:
$1.1 - $1.4 BillionPost-SNETR Import
Capability is expected to grow to
3600MW
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Under Construction
ISO-NE Approved
Future RegionalSystem PlanProjects
Legend
Complete
Manchester-Hopewell
Oxford Substation
Fitzwilliam Substation
Barbour Hill Substation
Frost Bridge Corridor
Gosling Road Substation
Berkshire Solution
Springfield Solution
Southern New England Transmission Reinforcement (SNETR)
Deerfield Autotransformer
Windsor Substation
Southeast CT Solution
Weare Substation
Madbury Capacitor
Scobie Substation
Tioga
Woodland Capacitor
Pleasant Capacitor
Haddam AutotransformerBethel - Norwalk
Glenbrook Statcom Shunock Substation
Glenbrook Cables
White Mountain Upgrade
Northeastern Connecticut
Middletown - Norwalk
Long Island Replacement Cable (LIRC)
Plumtree - Triangle
Norwalk Harbor Substation Controls
Scobie – Hudson Line
Timber Swamp
NU is a Major Part of New England’s Transmission Infrastructure Upgrade
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2006 NU Transmission Project Performance Summary – Excellence, Execution
Project construction milestones were on-time and spending was on-budget
Capital spending of approximately $470 million in 2006
Plant-in-service totaling $390 million -- $10 million greater than budget
We have maintained excellent safety and environmental records
We have completed and energized the $340 million Bethel-Norwalk project as of October 12, $10 million under budget
We have completed and energized the new $29 million Killingly substation in northeast Connecticut, $3 million under budget
Completion of projects will result in significant cost savings for customers
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The Next Five Years: Transmission Capital Expenditures
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other
SNETR
Major CT
Historic Forecast$
Mill
ions
Up To $2.4 Billion
• The Southern New England Transmission Reinforcement family of projects is growing in scope and definition.
• Over the next three years, a high level of capital spending is associated with projects that have already received siting approval.
$1,062 Million $1.1 Billion of major CT projects in
2007-2011 forecast period; $1.65 billion
in total
SNETR family of projects estimated
at $710 million during the 2007-
2011 forecast period
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Looking Beyond the Five-Year Horizon
The Southern New England Transmission Reinforcement family of projects will be our next major undertaking
ISO-NE’s Regional System Plan has identified longer-term projects within our franchise ISO-NE is planning beyond the 30 GW grid to a 50 GW grid Providing added transfer capacity between Maine and New Hampshire Strengthening ties and transfer capability between southern New
Hampshire and Massachusetts
FERC/NERC mandatory reliability standards may create new projects
Replacement of aging equipment will be increasingly important
ISO-NE is evaluating stronger interconnections with Canada
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ISO-NE Forecasts Show Surplus Generation in the Eastern Provinces of Canada and Insufficient Generation in New England, New York and Ontario
Source: ISO-NE Regional System Plan (RSP) 2005 Forecast for 2014
-3,511 MW
+10,984 MW+2,800 MW
+196 MW
-2,070 MW
-4,224 MW
Ontario
Québec
Newfoundland& Labrador
NewYork
Maritimes
SURPLUS
DEFICIENCY
Connecticut -828 MW
Imports of Renewable Power from Canada May Create the Potential for Additional Investment in Transmission
Existing DC interconnection with Hydro Quebec
NewEngland
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New England Return On Equity
FERC decision on New England transmission ROE issued on October 31, 2006
Base ROE set at 10.2% for the period 2/1/2005 through 10/31/2006 and 10.9% beyond that
Incentive adders include: 50 basis points for joining an RTO 100 basis points for new transmission identified by ISO-NE within its regional
system planning process November 30th Request for Rehearing by New England transmission
owners – apparent 30 basis point error in base ROE If successful with our FERC Rehearing Request:
Our going forward ROE on the large majority of NU’s transmission capital program will be at 12.7%
As new investment enters rate base our weighted ROE will rise – from approximately 12.1% blended in 2007 to about 12.45% by the end of the forecast period