Transitions to Sustainabilityand the role of policy

Prof. Dr. Derk LoorbachBrussels, 03-12-2013

DRIFT

• Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, Rotterdam with 18 action researchers

• Established 2004 as part of the national transition research program KSI

• Action/activist research institute; (international) fundamental and applied research, consultancy, academic/postgraduate education

• STRN: 600+ members globally

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Program of this session

• Introduction to sustainability transitions and transition management

• Examples of urban transition management

• Group exercises: building blocks for transition

• Synthesis: the transition narrative

SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS?

Persistent unsustainability

• Current socio-economic systems are inherently unsustainable– Economically, ecologically and socially

• But they are also heavily path-dependent– Locked in technologically, economically and culturally

• Incremental improvement is not enough and CO2 is only one of the problems– Sub-optimization often only strengthens lock-in

Systemic destabilisation

• The foundations underlying historical modernization are at the end of their life-cycle– Growth, efficiency, specialisation, optimisation

• Unpredictable and shockwise change seems inevitable– Just like in historical transitions

• Current crises are symptoms of non-linear systemic shifts happening– We need to consider these as windows of opportunity for major

change towards sustainability

Symptoms of destabilisation

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transitions Long-term (one or two generations) fundamental change of

structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system

– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms

– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routines

– practices: behaviour, operation, implementation

Periodic, non-linear systemic shift common in ecological and socio-economic systems

Paradigm to analyse and influence complex societal change

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes

Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices

Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition phases

predevelopmenttipping phase

reconfiguration

stabilisation

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Sustainable Society?

enhanced lock-in

decline

Time

Evolutionary revolutions

• Revolution at systems level on the long term• Evolution on the short-term: multiple and

reinforcing small steps

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Characteristics of transitions

• Inherent uncertainties and unpredictability– Wicked or unstructured problems

• Emergence, co-evolution and self-organisation– As typical dynamics underlying systems change

• Unmanageable, ambiguous and contested– They are mainly about behavioral, institutional, cultural change

• Transitions most likely do not automatically lead to sustainability– It is about the process of sustainable development rather than the

end goal

GOVERNANCE OF TRANSITIONS

Transition governance principles

• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy

• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvement

• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathways

• selective participation focusing on frontrunners

Transition Governance Framework

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Institutional and

structural changes,

new networks/ coalitions

Breakthrough actions, projects and initiatives,

new organisations

Problem structuring, shared sense of urgency,

guiding visions

Transitions…

Are not…

• Manageable

• Makeable

• Engineerable

• Predictable

Can be…

• Anticipated

• Influenced

• Guided

• Accelerated

society

Transition arenasRegular arenas

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

Transition arenas

Transition Management Framework

Monitoring, evaluating

and learning

Developing images

coalitions and

transition-agendas

Mobilizing actors and executing projects and

experiments

establishment of transition arenas, shared problem definitions and

visions

Transition Networks

Transition Experiments

Transition Arena

Phase IIIFraming the transition

Phase IVEnvisioning a sustainable city

Phase VReconnecting long term & short term

Phase VI

Going into action

Transition Team

Phase ISetting the scene

Phase IIExploring dynamics Phase VII

Engaging & anchoring

Tools

SCENE patterns actor analysisproblem analysis

TRANSCEreflexive

monitoring

monitoringframeworktrans. indicators

MLP

DBUDeepening, broadening, upscaling

transitioning

actor selection

expert-arena

system analysis

arena

agendaexperiments

evaluation

TM multiple participatory tools

EXAMPLES

Aberdeen

Ghent

Montreuil

Rotterdam

Ludwigsburg

Mitigation in Urban Areas, Solutions for Innovative Cities

5 local governments search for pathways to a low carbon future

Supported by two knowledge institutions: CRP Henri Tudor (LUX), DRIFT (NL)

• Ghent, great place to live

• Locally creating added value

• Energetic city, intelligent cycles

• Ghentenaar home in the city

Transition arena Ghent (Belgium)

20 cultural organizations

> 100.000 visitors

TransitionUniversity

Ghent

Researchbiogas from

biodegr.

Mobility arena

938 mobbers

Support for SMEs

Climate arena Ghent (Belgium)

Inspiration to political parties

CWG Urban Farming

CWG Energy Efficiency in business

CWG Valorisation waste water and biodegradablesCWG Art Sector

KWG mobiliteit

CWG consumer pusher market

KWG UGent

Assessment of potential forESCO’s

CEIP meets GMS

Old industrial harbor development

• Transition arena developing sustainability vision and ambition– Shared discourse and break away from old paradigm

• Strategic agenda with 5 sustainability pathways– Orientation for experiments and open invitation to

participate

• Experimental development strategy– Learning-by-doing and evolving practice

One of the images: Floating City(Design: www.deltasync.nl)

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

…the transition experiment

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Resilient neighbourhoods

Strategic

Organisational

Practical

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

EMERGING TRANSITION PATTERNS

Tipping points

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Blurring boundaries

Old structures of modernization era

eroding from within through cross-domain

networks of actors across food, energy,

water, social services, and economy.

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Power shifts

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Emergence

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Economic transition

Transition in roles

Transition Management

GROUP EXERCISE

What is the (persistent) problem?

• Understanding current transition dynamics

• Identifying transition potential

• Identifying change agents

• Creating space and mindset for reflexive experimentation

What is a sustainable city?

• Sustainably powered

• Clean mobility

• Vital circular economy

• Adaptive and green

• …?

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Transition pathways

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Time

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Backcasting exercise

1. Formulate an inspiring ambitious target

2. Reason backwards: what needs to changeIn 5 year intervals

3. Include suprises and breakthroughs

4. Make three suggestions for action

Thank you for your attention

For more information and publications:loorbach@drift.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.transitionsnetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75