Transitioning towards Climate Resilient Development in ...€¦ · Transitioning towards Climate...

Transitioning towards Climate Resilient Development in

Karnataka Summary for Policy Makers

Transitioning towards Climate Resilient Development in Karnataka

Summary for Policy Makers

Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore

December 2014

© December 2014

This report forms deliverables of the project initiated by the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and the Bangalore Climate Change Initiative -‐ Karnataka (BCCI-‐K) with its consortium partners: Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP, Bengaluru), Indian Institute of Science (IISc, Bengaluru), University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS, Bengaluru), Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC, Bengaluru), Integrated Natural Resource Management (INRM, New Delhi) and the London School of Economics—India Observatory (LSE-‐IO, London).

Published by

Indian Institute of Science

CV Raman Avenue, Yeshwanthpura,

Bengaluru, Karnataka 560012

Tel: +91 (80) 2293 2004 Fax: +91 (80) 2360 0683/0085

http://www.iisc.ernet.in/

Disclaimer

While every effort has been made to ensure the correctness of data/information used in this report, neither the authors nor IISc accept any legal liability for the accuracy or inferences drawn from the material contained therein or for any consequences arising from the use of this material.

No part of this report may be disseminated or reproduced in any form (electronic or mechanical) without prior permission from or intimation to BCCI-‐K. Permission and information may be sought at [email protected]. All such reproduced information must be duly credited.

Project Team Leaders Prof. N H Ravindranath Prof. G. Bala

Project Team Coordinator Indu K Murthy Institutions and Teams

Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore Ms Anitha Sagadevan Mr Jagmohan Sharma Ms Jaishri Srinivasan Mrs Mathangi Jayaraman Dr Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi Ms Sindhu Kademane Dr Sudam Sahu Ms Sujata Upgupta Ms Tashina Esteves Mr Vijay Kumar

University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore

Prof. M B Rajegowda

Integrated Natural Resources Management Consultants, New Delhi

Prof. A. K. Gosain Dr Sandhya Rao Ms Puja Singh Ms Anamika Arora Ms Ankush Mahajan Mr V. Elangovan Ms Shradha Ganeriwala

Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore

Prof. R S Deshpande Prof. K V Raju Dr Satyasiba Bedamatta

London School of Economics – India Observatory

Dr Ruth Kattumuri Ms Darshini Ravindranath

Table of Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Climate Change Projections for Karnataka .............................................................................. 2 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and River Basins ............................... 4 Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector of Karnataka ............................... 8 Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Forestry Sector ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Vulnerability of Agricultural and Rural Communities to Climate Change Risks at Household, Village and District Levels and Current Coping Strategies ..................... 12 Mainstreaming Adaptation into Development Programs in Karnataka ................... 15

Table of Figures Figure 1: Climate Change Projections for Temperature and Precipitation for the 2030s ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 2: Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in 2030s under RCP 4.5 (top panel) and RCP 8.5 (lower panel) ...................................................................................... 5 Figure 3: Water Resource Indicators (normalised value clustering) Used for Arriving at the Water Resource Vulnerability Index or Cluster Map for the Current Scenario (1979–2007) .................................................................................................... 6 Figure 4: Percentage Change in Yields of a Few Major Crops .......................................... 8 Figure 5: Vegetation Grids Undergoing Change by 2035 in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 6: Ranking of Villages in Chikballapur (Left panel) and Causes of Vulnerability (Right panel) ........................................................................................................... 12 Figure 7: Profiles of Socio-‐Economic Vulnerability of Districts .................................... 13 Figure 8: Income Diversification in Case Study Villages .................................................. 14 Figure 9: Classification of Developmental Programmes .................................................. 16


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Introduction

Climate change is an emerging environmental and developmental challenge facing humanity today, and Karnataka is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change than other states: Karnataka’s agriculture is rain-‐fed to a large extent (68% of its farmland is without irrigation, droughts are frequent, a large share of electricity is generated by hydropower, some regions face severe and perennial water shortage, and so on). Further, in terms of areas prone to drought, Karnataka is next only to Rajasthan; 54% of Karnataka’s geographical area is drought prone, with drought affecting 88 of the state’s 176 taluks and 18 of its 30 districts. There is adequate scientific evidence to show that climate change has already affected crop productivity, forest biodiversity, hydrological processes, and human health adversely. IPCC (2013) concludes that ‘warming of the climate system is unequivocal since the 1950s and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) will cause further warming’. The report further highlights the catastrophic impacts of global mean temperature rising by 2 °C. Under the Cancun Agreement, there is global consensus to hold the warming at 1.5–2 °C above the pre-‐industrial period to avoid catastrophic impacts, while the warming has already crossed 1 °C. Several studies have also shown that it is highly unlikely that the global mean warming could be stabilized below 1.5–2 °C, given the current trends in GHG emissions. Thus it is very important for states such as Karnataka to understand the potential impacts of climate change and vulnerabilities to the change and to develop and implement coping strategies to deal with the current climate variability and build resilience to long-‐term climate change.

Bangalore Climate Change Initiative-‐Karnataka (BCCI-‐K), in collaboration with Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Seoul, South Korea, has completed Phase 1 of the project aimed at promoting climate resilient development of Karnataka. Under this initiative, research institutions have completed an assessment of climate change projections using the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-‐5) models (IISc); assessed the impacts of climate change using the latest impact assessment models for water (INRM), agriculture (UAS), and forest sectors (IISc); developed vulnerability profiles at district (ISEC) and village levels (IISc); evaluated the current coping strategies (LSE); and developed a preliminary strategy for mainstreaming adaptation in the developmental programmes along with preliminary recommendations for climate-‐resilient development for Karnataka. Climate change projections and impacts are assessed for two scenarios, namely moderate emissions (RCP 4.5) and high emissions (RCP 8.5), while the current emission trends are even higher than those assumed in RCP 8.5.


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Climate Change Projections for Karnataka

Most parts of Karnataka could experience 1.5–2 °C warming relative to the level during the pre-‐industrial period (1880s) by as early as the 2030s under the likely high-‐emissions scenario (this is the mean value of an ensemble of 21 Earth System (CMIP-‐5) models). Many districts are likely to experience trends of increased rainfall. The projected range in warming relative to the level during the pre-‐industrial period could be 1–3 °C by the 2030s in Karnataka (Figure 1). In the long term (2080s), the mean temperature increase for Karnataka could be as high as 5 °C in RCP 8.5. Chitradurga, Koppal, Raichur and Tumkur districts are projected to experience the highest warming – 2 °C and above even by 2030s – under RCP 8.5. Most districts other than the coastal districts show a higher warming of above 4 °C by the 2080s. Models-‐based projections for rainfall show a very wide range in percentage change for Karnataka (Figure 1). In the short term (2030s), Bidar, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Kolar, and Yadgir districts are projected to experience marginally higher precipitation (4%–8%); in the long term (2080s), almost all the northern districts are projected to experience moderate increases in rainfall (8%–12%) under the moderate-‐emissions scenario RCP 4.5 relative to the pre-‐industrial period (1880s). Global Climate Models used in this study have a coarse resolution (a grid scale of about 200 km × 200 km) and hence there could be large uncertainties in projections at, say, the district level.


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Figure 1: Climate Change Projections for Temperature and Precipitation for the 2030s

In this report, the impact of climate change on water resources, agriculture, and forest ecosystems is assessed using climate response dynamic or process models based on the climate projections from CMIP5 earth system models under multiple Regional Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Further, the vulnerability of water resources, forest types, agriculture, and livelihoods is assessed. Vulnerability is defined by IPCC (2014) as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. Vulnerability profiles indicate the extent to which regions, river basins, agriculture, forests, and communities would be affected by a combination of climate-‐related and non-‐climate-‐related factors. Vulnerability ranking helps in identifying systems and regions in which adaptation measures need to be implemented on priority.


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Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and River Basins

Water yield in the part of Cauvery basin that falls in Karnataka is projected to increase by about 35% and 15% in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively, based on SWAT, a hydrological model. RCP 8.5 predicts that dependable flow in many reservoirs would be 75%–90% of its present level by the middle of the present century but also that parts of the Cauvery basin (parts of Hassan, Mandya, and Mysore districts) will experience severe water stress by the same time. RCP 4.5 predicts 14% increase in rainfall by the mid-‐century for the basin of the west-‐flowing River Kali and also for the Krishna basin whereas RCP 8.5 predicts hardly any change in rainfall (Figure 2). Supply to various reservoirs in Cauvery, Netravati, Kali, Krishna, and Sharavati river basins may not be greatly reduced (75% of the dependable flow). It is therefore essential to assess the dependable lean season flows along with their distribution in time for planning and developing water supply schemes.


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Figure 2: Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in 2030s under RCP 4.5 (top panel) and RCP 8.5 (lower panel)

Reduced availability of surface water, higher water stress for crops, floods, and drought make the affected districts particularly vulnerable to climate change. The current water resource vulnerability index (WRVI) constructed for 30 districts of Karnataka using five water indicators shows that for three districts, namely Gulbarga, Raichur, and Yadgir, the index is very low, marking these districts as far more vulnerable than the other districts (Figure 3). The districts in the very high vulnerability cluster are all in north-‐eastern Karnataka.


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Figure 3: Water Resource Indicators (normalised value clustering) Used for Arriving at the Water Resource Vulnerability Index or Cluster Map for the Current Scenario (1979–2007)

Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 show an increase in area vulnerable in terms of water resources during the period from the baseline (1971-‐2000) to mid-‐term (2021-‐2050) for the south-‐west monsoon season. During the same period for the north-‐east monsoon season, however, RCP 4.5 predicts an overall increase in vulnerability whereas RCP 8.5 predicts a decrease: under RCP 4.5, the number of districts classified as highly vulnerable increase from 9 to 14, and those classified as highly vulnerable from 5 to 6, by mid-‐century compared to the baseline scenario.

Real-‐time flood forecasting, improvement in water use efficiency, water harvesting, groundwater recharge, and climate-‐related considerations are necessary in designing and managing reservoirs. Rainfall pattern in future is likely to be more variable: the intensity of rainfall will increase but rainy days will be fewer. All-‐round warming is projected. In the absence of dedicated research on adaptation, the following are some of the measures to cope with climate variability and climate change.

• Incorporate considerations related to climate change – especially changes in stream flow, water availability, evapo-‐transpiration, and rainfall intensity – in designing new irrigation projects.

• Revise the operating rules of reservoirs for efficient flood and irrigation management (real-‐time flood forecasting).

• Transport and distribute irrigation water more efficiently: plug conveyance losses and rehabilitate and remodel irrigation infrastructure to provide on-‐demand irrigation.

• Use irrigation water more efficiently: adopt more efficient irrigation systems such as micro irrigation (drip or sprinkler) and promote participatory management across projects.


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• Incorporate renewable energy based micro-‐irrigation systems to overcome water energy nexus challenges.

• Build water-‐harvesting structures to recharge groundwater, introduce in-‐situ conservation of soil moisture, and control soil erosion.

• Rejuvenate existing infrastructure and systems for water management -‐ desiltation and rehabilitation of tanks and reservoirs, promoting local tank management.

• Build capacity to deal with the problems: develop appropriate modelling tools for all aspects of water resources management, create a comprehensive database of relevant information, and make the public aware of the need to conserve water.


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Impact of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector of Karnataka

Assessment of the impact of climate change on five key crops of Karnataka, based on INFOCROP modelling, showed that yields of rice, maize, sorghum and red gram, and ragi are likely to decline in 13, 9, 12, and 8 districts out of 27 districts respectively by the 2030s (Figure 4). Major rice-‐growing districts like Mandya, Belgaum, Bellary, the coastal districts, and Shimoga are expected to witness rice productivity lowered by 1%–18%. In the case of sorghum, the corresponding figures for Haveri and Raichur are 6%–10%. Red gram yields will be lower by 10%–38% and those of ragi, by 10%–20%, in 6 districts. However, crop yields may also increase in many districts.

Figure 4: Percentage Change in Yields of a Few Major Crops

It is necessary to address, urgently and holistically, concerns related to the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture by improving the natural resource base (soil and water), diversifying cropping systems, adapting the farming-‐systems approach, strengthening the extension system, and improving risk management through early-‐warning systems, crop insurance, and institutional support. A range of adaptive strategies need to be considered. Changing cropping calendars and cropping patterns to include those varieties of crops that can perform better despite the variable climate is the immediate and the best option. Other important options include introducing new cropping sequences, deploying late-‐ or early-‐maturing crop varieties depending on the available growing season, conserving soil moisture through appropriate tillage practices, and practicing more efficient water-‐harvesting techniques.

Development of crop varieties tolerant to drought, high/low temperature, and


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pests – varieties that may be better adapted to future climatic conditions – by utilizing genetic resources should be initiated immediately. One of the promising approaches would be gene pyramiding to enhance the capacity of plants to adapt to climatic change. It is also necessary to organize large-‐scale on-‐site (in farmers’ fields) demonstrations on integrated crop management practices involving moisture conservation, integrated nutrient management, and improved varieties.

Recommendations that emerge from different scenarios of the impact of climate change include changing the cropping pattern, promoting drought-‐resistant crop varieties, shifting to perennial horticulture and agroforestry, and changing cropping practices. Specific recommendations include the following: i) promoting crops with low water requirements in districts that are likely to face droughts, ii) growing short-‐duration vegetables, iii) introducing rain-‐fed horticulture in areas that are likely to face low rainfall, iv) changing the sowing window and growing periods in some districts by using crop weather calendars generated for different districts, v) planning for contingencies by supporting early decision-‐making by farmers, vi) replacing the usual crops with other, more suitable, crops where required, and vii) resowing with short-‐ to medium-‐duration varieties in the event of floods; providing protective irrigation using run-‐off water collected in farm ponds in the event of prolonged dry spells at the beginning of the sowing season or medium-‐duration droughts in mid-‐season; and harvesting grain crops earlier so that they can be used at least as fodder in the event of prolonged droughts.


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Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Forestry Sector

In Karnataka, 33% and 34% of the grids are projected to undergo changes in forest type as early as the 2030s under RCP 4.5 (Figure 5, top panel) and RCP 8.5 (Figure 5, lower panel) respectively, going by an assessment based on a dynamic global vegetation model. The implication is that the future climate may not be suitable for the existing forest types and biodiversity and can result in forest dieback. By the 2080s, 57% and 62% of the grids are likely to undergo changes in forest type under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively.

In the Western Ghats, both evergreen and deciduous forests are likely to be seriously threatened: since the future climate is not optimal for the existing plant diversity, many of the existing plant species will either face dieback (that is, begin to wither) or die—and it is uncertain whether they will be succeeded by species that can establish and thrive under the new climate. At present, among the biodiversity-‐rich natural forests of the Western Ghats, the dry deciduous forests are considered the most vulnerable whereas the semi-‐evergreen and evergreen forests are considered less vulnerable. The eastern flank of the Western Ghats is dominated by dry deciduous forests and plantations, which are inherently more vulnerable.

Figure 5: Vegetation Grids Undergoing Change by 2035 in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios

When species that provide multiple forest products experience dieback or die, consequences are severe for the flow of ecosystem services and for biodiversity. The bulk of the forested grids consisting of tropical evergreen and tropical deciduous


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forest types are projected to undergo change, which means that in the next 30–50 years, bulk of the species would be affected, causing loss of biodiversity and disrupting the flow of ecosystem services.

The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and biodiversity are irreversible, requiring adaptation even in the short term. The Karnataka Forest Department could integrate the components of the National Mission for a Green India to build resilience to the projected climate change at species and ecosystem levels and also among the forest-‐dependent communities, in their programmes. In the absence of dedicated research on developing adaptation strategies to build resilient forest ecosystems, the forest department could adopt a set of ‘win–win’ adaptation strategies including those listed below.

• Conservation of biodiversity-‐rich forests of the Western Ghats since biodiversity-‐rich forests are less vulnerable to climate change

• Promotion of natural regeneration and mixed-‐species plantations in afforestation programmes, particularly in the districts likely to be adversely affected by climate change

• Effective fire prevention and management to cope with more frequent forest fires and pest attacks, a likely consequence of climate change, particularly in the dry deciduous forests of Karnataka

• Linking of Protected Areas and reduction in forest fragmentation by conserving contiguous forest patches to facilitate migration of plant and animal species

• Anticipatory planting of tree species that are tolerant of higher temperatures, fires, and pest attacks

• Research on developing temperature-‐, pest-‐, and fire-‐tolerant species and silvicultural practices to cope with the changing climate and its adverse impacts; establishment of long-‐term forest monitoring programmes to detect, document, and analyse changes to generate information for planning adaptation measures and for assessing the efficacy of adaptation measures already implemented

• Strengthening of forestry infrastructure and personnel so that they are equal to the challenges of research, monitoring, assessment, planning, and implementation of adaptation plans for forests and managing forests under climate change

• Establishment of a climate change cell in the Karnataka Forest Department for information on and assistance to forest and wildlife planning and management.


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Vulnerability of Agricultural and Rural Communities to Climate Change Risks at Household, Village and District Levels and Current Coping Strategies

Assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of agriculture and livelihood at the household level showed that majority of rural households in the villages that were studied are moderately or highly vulnerable, and that lack of irrigation and variable crop yields are the predominant causes of that vulnerability. Absence of reliable irrigation water for agriculture, lack of diversified livelihood support systems and inadequate institutional support are critical factors that contribute to making livelihoods in rural households highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.

In Chikballapur district, 89% of 1220 villages are highly vulnerable (Figure 6, left panel), the major causes of such vulnerability at the village level being lack of irrigation and absence of diversified income sources (Figure 6, right panel).

Figure 6: Ranking of Villages in Chikballapur (Left panel) and Causes of Vulnerability (Right panel)

Identifying the most vulnerable districts makes it possible to prioritize the interventions aimed at addressing vulnerability and facilitating adaptation. Socio-‐economic vulnerability profiles developed at the district level showed that Chamarajanagar, Chikballapur, Chitradurga, Raichur, and Yadgir are the most vulnerable districts and Bangalore Urban, Dakshina Kannada, Dharwad, Udupi, and Uttara Kannada are the least vulnerable districts (Figure 7).


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Figure 7: Profiles of Socio-‐Economic Vulnerability of Districts

The major causes of socio-‐economic vulnerability at the district level are inadequate per capita income, high population density, a low literacy rate, and fewer livestock units for every 100 000 people. Some recommended measures to make rural communities more resilient to adverse socio-‐economic effects of climate change are listed below.

• Imparting skill-‐based training and creating more jobs in non-‐farm sectors • Strengthening the National Literacy Policy to increase the proportion of literate people,

especially women • Strengthening alternative sources of income such as livestock and occupations that

require specialized skills rather than mere labour • Promoting dairying and other livestock-‐related occupations that have greater market

demand and enjoy greater support from the state • Implement coping strategies to current climate risks and climate variability.

A micro–level case analysis was conducted in two villages of Bagepalli block of Chikballapur district of Karnataka, to assess adaptation to current climate risks. The district was selected as it was found to be one of the most vulnerable in terms of agriculture and livelihoods. Chikballapur is in the Eastern dry agro-‐climatic zone. It experiences a semi-‐arid climate, characterized by typical monsoon tropical weather with hot summers and mild winters and is drought-‐prone. This makes the district sensitive to current climate variability, and the vulnerability of the district could potentially increase in future.

Farmers and rural households employ diverse coping strategies to adapt to the current climate variability and risks of climate change. Some of the key coping strategies adopted are as follows: changing the cropping pattern, diversifying the basket of crops and even that of livestock, switching to mixed cropping, changing the time of


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sowing, supplementing the available sources of irrigation, adopting agroforestry, diversifying income sources, migrating to places that offer better opportunities, seeking assistance from the state’s developmental programmes, and making distress sale of assets (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Income Diversification in Case Study Villages

Many of the current coping strategies are inadequate and inefficient leading to loss of production, income and assets. The current coping strategies adopted by the rural households, are inadequate to deal with the current climate risks and are at a high cost to the households. Some examples of such coping strategies` include: shift to low income yielding crops, leaving land fallow, distress sale of assets such as livestock and trees, and migration.

Better strategies for reducing vulnerability to current climate risks and building resilience to long-‐term climate change are, however, available. The state’s development programmes are critical for rural households to cope with the current climate risks. Autonomous or current coping strategies form a baseline against which the need for planned adaptation can be evaluated and developed. Some potential coping strategies that should be promoted are as follows: agro-‐forestry, particularly on rain-‐fed lands; livestock diversification; soil and water conservation; enhanced irrigation; greater access to state developmental programmes such as the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), Integrated Watershed Management Programme (IWMP), and National Afforestation Programme (NAP); financial compensation through crop insurance; and diversification of income and livelihood opportunities.


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Mainstreaming Adaptation into Development Programs in Karnataka

Adaptation to climate change needs to be distinguished from adaptation to current climate variability. Adaptation takes the form of adjustments to physical, ecological, and social systems to reduce their vulnerability or to enhance their resilience to current climate risks as well as future climate change. Rural communities that are dependent on agriculture are currently exposed to intra-‐ and inter-‐seasonal variations such as extreme rainfall, heat stress, delayed rainfall, and drought that lead to changes in cropping patterns and reduced crop and livestock productivity, and, in turn, to loss of livelihoods. Essentially, adapting to current climate variability should enhance resilience to future climate change, but this depends on the type of adaptation. Adaptation can be achieved in many ways, which focus on 1) technology, 2) economic development, 3) community participation, 4) management of risk from disastrous changes in ecosystems, and 5) sustainable livelihoods.

All sectors and rural communities will be exposed to climate change, which makes it necessary to incorporate considerations related to climate into developmental programmes. Governments in many countries are starting to develop adaptation plans and policies on different scales, and experience on adaptation measures across regions continues to accumulate. The Planning Commission in India recognizes the importance of mainstreaming adaptation and has incorporated it into the national climate change missions. International agencies and organizations such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations Development Programme are already mainstreaming adaptation into their programmes.

Many of the developmental programmes currently implemented in Karnataka provide adaptation co-‐benefits but such co-‐benefits can be enhanced by modifying the project design to ‘climate-‐proof’ the programmes related to rural development and natural resource management. The adaptation measures are relevant to both current climate variability and long-‐term climate change. Such co-‐benefits of the development programmes implemented in Karnataka in agriculture, water, forest, rural development, and health sectors were evaluated based on seven criteria that encompass three components: risk management, vulnerability, and resilience. The programmes that achieved the highest rank in terms of co-‐benefits of adaptation are NREGA, IWMP, and NAP (Figure 9), which incorporate several approaches to adaptation, namely ecosystem, community, sustainable livelihoods, and disaster-‐risk management. Programmes that scored low did so because although they included adaptation to current climate variability, they failed to contribute significantly to adaptation to long-‐term climate change. This indicates that adaptation has come to stay and is becoming embedded in some planning processes.


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1-‐MGNREGA, IWMP, NAP; 2–AIBP; 3-‐IAY, PMGSY; 4–NRLM; 5–RGGVY; 6–NFSM; 7-‐NRDWP, NRHM; 8-‐RKVY, NHM

Figure 9: Classification of Developmental Programmes

Developmental programmes that include different elements and integrate different approaches to adaptation offer multiple co-‐benefits, and those that address all the three elements of adaptation – vulnerability, risk mitigation, and resilience – and those that feature community-‐based adaptation, ecosystem-‐based adaptation, disaster risk management, and sustainable livelihoods generate the highest adaptation co-‐benefits.

Mainstreaming adaptation requires assessment of risks from climate change, assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities, identification of risks, and development of short-‐term coping practices and of long-‐term strategies to enhance resilience for different sectors and regions at village, panchayat, and block levels. The following four-‐stage process is recommended to this end.

I. Develop climate change projections and estimate the impacts of current or short-‐term climate variability or risks and those of long-‐term climate change at district and block levels as well as for different regions and sectors (rain-‐fed agriculture and cropping systems, forest types, river basins, watersheds, etc.). • During the current project phase, finer-‐scale climate change projections were not

available but are likely to become available for reliable projections at block and district levels soon.

• Impacts were assessed using projections from only one global climate model and using a single response model for agriculture and water sectors owing to limited availability of climate and non-‐climate data for the impact models. More reliable assessments based on multiple climate-‐response models will be possible soon.

• Currently, the impact models do not evaluate the impacts of extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods, which could be explored in the future.

II. Develop vulnerability profiles and rank the most vulnerable districts, cropping


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systems, forest types, and watersheds to prioritize them for interventions aimed at adaptation. • Vulnerability profiles for the agriculture sector have not been developed for different

crops, districts, and agro-‐climatic zones; the assessment was based only on a single climate and impact model. Developing such vulnerability profiles is necessary at panchayat and block levels.

III. Evaluate current development programmes for adaptation co-‐benefits; identify those programmes that are lacking in such benefits; and develop strategies to incorporate and mainstream adaptation into current programmes aimed at lowering current climate-‐related risks and building long-‐term resilience climate change. • The planning, designing, implementation, and monitoring of development programmes

and their current performance are yet to be assessed in detail for developing concrete recommendations for mainstreaming adaptation.

IV. Develop institutional mechanisms to design, implement, and monitor adaptation programmes and, most important, identify the sources for financing the interventions aimed at adaptation. • The existing institutions and mechanisms for designing, implementation, and monitoring

of different programmes need to be assessed in detail to suggest concrete recommendations on institutional arrangements, financial mechanisms, and capacity building required to mainstream adaptation.

The current phase of the study is characterized by the absence of reliable climate projections at the block or district level based on multiple climate models, adoption of a single climate impact assessment model, and near absence of dedicated research to develop short-‐ and long-‐term adaptation strategies as well as understand nexus challenges in food-‐water-‐energy. Currently, the government and other developmental agencies could adopt ‘win–win’ strategies to cope with climate-‐related risks in the short term and build resilience to long-‐term climate change in different sectors. Such strategies include the following: advanced weather forecasting and access to climate information, soil and moisture conservation, improved irrigation along with greater water use efficiency, mixed cropping, agro-‐forestry, adjustments in the cropping calendar, afforestation involving mixed species, forest and biodiversity conservation, linking Protected Areas, better monitoring of forest fires, and anticipatory tree planting along the altitude and latitude gradient. Research must be initiated to develop adaptation strategies and practices for different sectors and regions of Karnataka.


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