Transition to Democracy

And associated conceptual frameworks

Interesting articles Larry Diamond: “Is the Third Wave over?”

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v007/7.3/diamond.html

Paul Lewis: “Theories of Democratisation and Patterns of Regime Change in Eastern Europe” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics Vol13, No1, March1997

R.F.M.Lubbers: “A response to Samuel Huntington” http://www.globalize.org.clash.html

Samuel P.Huntington Three waves of democratization 1828-1926 1943-1964 1974-present First two ended with a “reverse wave”

Diamond’s Table 1Year No.

DemocraciesNo.States

Demo as% of total

1974 39 142 27.51990 76 165 46.11991 91 183 49.71992 99 186 53.21993 108 190 56.81995 117 191 61.3

Lewis’s groups 1997 Group 1 Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovenia

Intermediate Bulgaria Slovakia

Group 2 Romania Croatia Albania Serbia

Hang on a minute, what about? Estonia [in first group

of applicant countries] Lithuania Latvia

Bosnia Macedonia Ukraine Moldova

Byelarus Russia Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan

E.U.’s two groups of applicants Hungary Poland Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia

Cyprus

Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Rumania Slovakia

Turkey

Explanations Group 2 primarily Ottoman, Group1 Austo-

Hungarian/North European Group 2 Orthodox Christian or Muslim;

Group 1 Catholic or Protestant such explanations stress cultural and

historical factors

Explanations 2 Group 2 countries had stable communist

rule Group 1 had history of instability and

ideological revisionism Elite mass relations very different under

Communist rule

Explanations 3 Civil society strong in group 1 countries Poland: church Hungary: dissident elections and early

political parties Czechs; artists East Germany: Lutheran peace groups Slovenia; punks and youth groups

More on Civil society Revolts: GDR 1953; Hungary Poland 1956;

Czechoslovakia 1968; Poland 1980-1 pluralism developed as leadership

retreated during 1980s So civil society began to organise itself

pre-1989

Explanations 4 Group 1 communist regimes modes of exit

involved social movements that negotiated elections [Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia]

Group 2 exit by coup or elite reshuffle; pace of democratisation delayed

Explanations 5 Modernization and socio-economic

development higher in Group 1 GDP per capita higher urbanisation higher % working in agriculture lower

Debate:Modernisation v Elite Choice Lipset Dahl Huntington Pye

O’Donnell and Schmitter

Przeworski Bova von Beyme Welsh