Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association...
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Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington Relations
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Transcript of Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association...
Transition of the Generation Fleet ina Carbon-constrained World
American Public Power Association October 17, 2006
Barbara TyranDirector, Washington Relations
2© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Objective
Provide an objective and factual framework for discussing
generation technologies and investment decisions in a carbon-
constrained world
3© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Framework Overview
• Levelized cost of electricity
– Standard EPRI methodology
– Constant 2006 $ costs
– Lines are mean values from a range of studies
• Two key uncertainties
– Future “cost” of CO2
– Future price of natural gas
• Two technology portfolios
– 2010-2015 time-period
– 2020-2025 time-period
4© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Base-load Generation Options
• Dispatchable Generation
– Fossil Generation
• Pulverized coal (PC)
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
• Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC)
– Nuclear
– Biomass
• Intermittent Generation
– Wind
5© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Pulverized Coal
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
2010 - 2015
0.8 Tons CO2/MWh
X $50/Ton = +$40/MWh
PC
6© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
PC
IGCC
2010 - 2015
7© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Natural Gas Combined Cycle
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
NGCC@$8
NGCC@$4
2010 - 2015
0.4 Tons/MWh x $50/Ton = +$20/MWh
NGCC@$6
8© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Nuclear
Biomass
Non-CO2 Emitting Dispatchable Generation
2010 - 2015
9© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
U.S. Wind Capacity Factors*
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Cumulative U.S. Wind Capacity, MW
Win
d C
apac
ity
Fac
tor,
%
Average of distribution = 29%Central range = 25-35%
*2005 data from Platts
10© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Wind Generation
2010 - 2015
Wind@29% CF
11© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Comparative Costs in 2010-2015
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Wind@29% CF
Nuclear
PC
IGCC
Biomass
NGCC@$6
12© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Take-Aways for 2010-2015 Time Period
• Almost all new dispatchable base-load generation needed to meet U.S. demand growth prior to 2015 will utilize fossil-fueled technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) without CO2 capture and storage.
• Wide-scale commercial operation of new advanced light water reactor nuclear plants and new advanced coal plants with CO2 capture and storage in the U.S. will probably not occur until after 2015.
13© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
What’s Possible: 2020-2025 Horizon
Key Drivers
Technology Advances in Efficiency
Cost Reductions through Design Improvements
CO2 Capture and Storage - Development and Deployment
14© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Pulverized Coal w/o Capture
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
PC w/o cap 2020-2025
PC w/o cap 2010-2015
2020 - 2025
Assumes increased efficiency and some cost
reduction
15© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Pulverized Coal with CO2 Capture and Storage
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Current MEA capture technology (PC)
Advanced capture technology (PC-USC)
2020 - 2025
PC w/o capture
16© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
IGCC w/o Capture
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
IGCC w/o capture 2010-2015
IGCC, w/o capture 2020-2025
Assumes efficiency improvements
and cost reductions
17© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
IGCC with CO2 Capture and Storage
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
IGCC w/ capture (2020-2025)
2020 - 2025
IGCC w/o capture
(2020-2025)
18© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Advanced IGCC and Advanced PC with Capture
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
IGCC w/o cap
IGCC with capture
PC-USC with advanced capture* PC w/o cap
2020 - 2025
*midpoint of Ammonia Carbonate and AC/Membrane/Improvement cases
Technology “Horserace”…choice may be fuel or operating strategy dependent
19© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Natural Gas Combined Cycle
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
NGCC@$6 (2010-2015)
NGCC@$6 (2020-2025)
2020 - 2025
20© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Biomass
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Biomass 2010-2015
10
Biomass 2020-2025
2020 - 2025
21© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Wind Generation
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
32% CF in 2020-2025
29% CF in 2010-20152020 - 2025
40% CF in 2020-2025
35% CF in 2020-2025
22© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Comparative Costs in 2020-2025
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Nuclear
Wind
Biomass
NGCC@$6
An Extraordinary Opportunityto Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio
IGCC w/capPC w/cap
