Transition management and the multi-level perspective

Dr Gary Kerr

Transition Management• The continuous process of transformation of socio-political landscapes,

socio-technical practices and the structural character of society from one equilibrium to another

• Seeks to:– Reduce uncertainty– Produce desirable social outcomes– Enhance resilience during transformation of socio-technical

systems

• Engages a wide range of stakeholders (actors) over the multiple levels to create shared visions and goals

• Tested for practicality through the use of experimentation, learning and adaptation at the niche level.

Key principles of transition management

• Seeks to widen participation by taking a multi-actor approach in order to encompass societal values and beliefs

• Takes a long term perspective creating visions in which short term objectives can be identified

• Focused on learning at the niche level, experiments are used to identify how successful a particular pathway could be and uses the concept of “Learn by doing, doing by learning”

• A systems thinking approach which identifies that problems will span multiple domains, levels and actors

Levels of transition management

Niches

Regimes

Landscape

Technological niche

• Level (or area) in which space is provided for radical innovation & experimentation

• New, hopeful, technologies emerge at ‘niche’ level• Initially unstable, expensive with low performance• Incubation rooms: protection from market competition and

regulation• Developed by network of dedicated actors that support

product innovation• Niche is a safe environment that promotes innovation and

allows breakthrough developments to grow• These new innovations may challenge the status-quo• Military as a niche: supporting development of radio,

computers, internet, aircraft

Socio-technical regime

• Dominant practices, rules and technologies that provide stability and reinforcement to the prevailing socio-technical systems

• Set of rules embedded in institutions & infrastructure that shape technological innovations

• Actors include engineers, policy makers, financiers and suppliers

• Regime has ‘set rules’: an established practice or system• Selection and retention mechanism – filters out the

unsuccessful whilst incorporates worthy innovations into the existing regime

• Any radical change is potentially threatening to the vested interests of the established regime

Socio-technical landscape• Overall socio-technical setting that encompasses:

– Intangible aspects of social values, political beliefs and world views and

– Tangible aspects of the built environment including institutions and the functions of the market place such as prices, costs, trade patterns and incomes

• These processes occur within the wider political, cultural and economic background termed the socio-technical landscape.

• The landscape is an external backdrop to the actors at the regime and niche level.

• Changes can occur in the landscape but much more slowly than regime level.

• One such change is the increase in environmental awareness• This socio-cultural process is leading to pressure on numerous

regimes (aviation, agriculture etc.) whilst providing openings for new technologies to establish themselves

The multi-level perspective• Transitions come about through interactions between

processes at the three levels• Niche-innovations build up momentum

– Learning processes– Price & performance improvements– Support from powerful groups

• Changes at landscape level create pressure on the regime

• De-stablisation of regime creates a window of opportunity for niche innovations

• The alignment of these processes allows a breakthrough of novelties in mainstream markets when they compete with the existing regime

Adapted from Geel, 2007

Transition paths• The nature of transitions varies, resulting in multiple pathways

• Reproduction: ongoing change occurring in the regime level

• Transformation: a socio-technical regime that changes without the emergence of a monopolising technology

• Technological substitution: an incumbent technology is replaced by a radical innovation resulting in a new socio-technical regime. (e.g. the car replacing the horse as the primary means of land transport)

• De-alignment and Re-alignment: weaknesses in the regime sees the advent of competing new technologies leading to a dominant model

• Re-configuration: When multiple, interlinked technologies are replaced by a similarly linked alternative set

Criticisms of the multi-level perspective

• Empirical research on technological transitions occurring now has been limited; focus has been on historic transitions.

• Depending on perspective on transition case studies they could be presented as having occurred on a different transition path to what was shown

• E.g. the bicycle could be considered an intermediate transport technology between the horse and the car. Judged by a shorter different time-frame this could appear a transition in its own right

• Determining the nature of a transition is problematic; when it started and ended, or whether one occurred in the sense of a radical innovation displacing an existing socio-technical regime.

• The perception of time casts doubt on whether a transition has occurred.

Conclusion

• Continuous process of transformation of socio-political landscapes, socio-technical practices and the structural character of society from one equilibrium to another

• Transition management & multi-level perspective is a useful tool for studying & understanding technological change (and reducing risk of undesirable outcomes)

• Can be used to inform policy e.g. Dutch Government used it as a practical tool to radically transform their energy systems

• UK & Scottish Governments could incorporate this as a framework to produce better policy around areas of renewable energy technologies