Transit oriented growth in

Chinese cities…opportunities and obstacles

or the ‘rationale’ for the 5th ring road

ShomikMehndiratta

Andrew Salzberg

World Bank

Transforming TransportationWashington DC. January 27, 2011

3

… densities are very high and cities are relatively compact

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

80

77

74

71

68

65

62

59

56

53

50

47

44

41

38

35

32

29

26

23

20

17

14

11 8 5 2 1 4 7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

55

58

61

64

67

70

73

76

79

kilometers

resid

en

ts/k

m2

People's Square

Jiading

Chuangsha

Huinan

Taicang

Kunshan

Outer Ring RoadOuter Ring Road

KUNSHAN

CORRIDOR

TAICANG

CLUSTER

JIADING

CORRIDOR

CHUANSHA

CLUSTER

SOUTHEASTERN

CORRIDOR

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

80

77

74

71

68

65

62

59

56

53

50

47

44

41

38

35

32

29

26

23

20

17

14

11 8 5 2 1 4 7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

55

58

61

64

67

70

73

76

79

kilometers

resid

en

ts/k

m2

NorwalkStamford

New

BrunswickElizabeth

Manhattan

Shanghai New York

Source: CHREOD, various

Context: High Densities

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Beijing Shanghai Tianjin Guangzhou Latin America Europe US (and other developed countries)

1990

2000

4Source: draft Urban Fringe report, Bertaud (various), Angel (various)

These densities are decreasing, but

still high in a global context

Urban

density, persons/

km2

1984 1999

Source: Landsat ETM digital images

… 40 percent of ‘newly urbanized’ did not move, urban boundaries did

Spatial Growth is Rapid

Shanghai, 2009

Spatial Growth is fragmented at the urban periphery

Zhengzhou

Why? Land and Finance

• Municipal Finance

Limitations on accessing capital markets

Limited central government support

Base of stable recurrent taxes (property tax) missing

• Dual land tenure system

Market value 6-8 times (can be 75 times) compensation; limited transparency

Land transfer fees 20-30% of local government revenue

Finance about 60% of all urban infrastructure ~ 35b (2004)

• ‘Ring roads’: agents of land conversion

Strong incentive to over-requisition land

Induce growth fundamentally unfriendly to public transport

8

Incentive structures are working, just not for urban accessibility

9

Beijing ring road 3 of 5…

Inherently public transport and pedestrian un-friendly

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

New York London Beijing

Urban Design and Public Transport

Stations

Jobs Accessed on Foot in

20 minutes from a major

CBD metro station

Urban design around stations can have a major effect on ridership…

Source: World Bank Analysis

19:00

JOBS工作

This Minute这分钟:

12,000Cumulative累计:

127,300

COMMERCIAL SPACE

商业空间 （平方米）(square meters)

This Minute这分钟:

29,600Cumulative累计:

409,000

N

Beijing –

GuoMao北京-

国贸

12:00Coventry Street

伦敦考文垂街

JOBS 工作

This Minute 这分钟 :

13,100

Cumulative 累计:

146,200

COMMERCIAL SPACE

商业空间 （平方米）(square meters)

This Minute 这分钟:

364,300

Cumulative 累计:

4,075,000

N

Bank Support

• Long term analytical support:

• Property rights at the urban periphery

• Sustainable Municipal Finance

• Project-focused land use analytical work and

advice

• Tianjin eco-city

• Wuhan mapping tools

• Design/Development for Kunming Urban Rail Project

Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City

Tianjin Eco City New York City

Wuhan Urban Accessibility

!(

!(

!(

Accessibility To/From the city centers_Subway+Walk 2017(Without subway line no. 5)

±

0 5 102.5Kilometers

Legend

!( City_centers

Subwaylines_All_Origin_file

<all other values>

Route_ID

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Subway_Walknet2017

WaterBody

Polygons

15

30

45

60

90

!(

!(

!(

Accessibility To/From the city centers_Subway+Walk2020

±

0 5 102.5Kilometers

Legend

Subwaylines_Allyears

<all other values>

MetroID

M1

M2

M3

M4

M5

M6

M7

M8

!( City_centers

Subway_Walknet2020

WaterBody

Traveltime

15

30

45

60

90

Land use change 2004-2020

STREET HIERARCHY IN EXISTING PLAN STREET HIERARCHY IN NEW PLAN

Courtesy: Energy Foundation

BLOCK SIZE IN EXISTING PLAN BLOCK SIZE IN NEW PLAN

Courtesy: Energy Foundation

Conclusions

• Continued dramatic urban growth

• Incentives can work against integration

with public transport – and support

development along ring roads

• Some initiatives, but long road ahead