Transformer Report Ed5 2017 - StatPlan Energy Research · Analysis of demand and transformer stock...
Transcript of Transformer Report Ed5 2017 - StatPlan Energy Research · Analysis of demand and transformer stock...
Transformer Report Ed5 2017
Power and Distribution Transformer
Market Report
Chapter Summaries
Table of Contents
Sample Pages
Edition 5
February 2017
StatPlan Energy Research
Transformer Report Chapter Summaries
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 1 - THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET
Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is summarised with cagr in GVA and the
value in $ in real and nominal terms.
Chapter 2 – NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
Analysis of demand and transformer stock by category; GSU, power transformers and distribution
transformers. Detailed shipment data for distribution transformers in the US is only available for the years
2009 by transformer type. Market drivers and utility investment are outlined. The manufacturing industry
is analysed in detail by transformer category; LPT, power, medium power transformers, liquid and dry type
MV transformers, LV dry type. Purchase influences and delivery channels are analysed. Efficiency are
outlined.
Chapter 3 - EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The European market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex factory cost, for
generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.
Regional overview of the European utility system is provided, with details of utilizes and network structure,
including voltage analysis. Efficiency measures are outlined. The changing network landscape of
Distributed Power and Smart Transformers are outlined. Over the last five years, the EU power sector has
been hit by a “perfect storm” of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that have led to overcapacity
and low prices. MPS and market drivers are analysed. As a result, the region’s large publicly traded utilities
have, on average, lost half of their market capitalisation since 2008, destroying around EUR 500 billion of
shareholder value. Tis is outlined and analysed in detail focusing on the major utilizes affected. The
chapter contains detailed marketing sections for the major countries in Europe: France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom and Turkey, analysis of manufacturing facilities, especially the global leaders; ABB,
Siemens, Alstom, Schneider, Legrand.
Chapter 4 - CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
The CIS market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator
transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The
chapter contains a separate report on the major CIS country, Russia.
Chapter 5 - MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The Middle Eastern and African markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory
cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every
country.
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Chapter 6 - ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The Asia Pacific markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for
generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.
Separate detailed sections are included for China, India, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Japanese manufacturing
with its high overseas component is analysed. An interesting analysis is provided of investment as a % of
GDP, which shows clearly the dominance of the Asian countries and MENA with implications for markets.
Chapter 7 - LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The LAC markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator
transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The two
largest market, Brazil and Mexico are analysed individually.
Chapter 8 - TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND INSTALLED COST
There are basically three levels at which the cost of equipment can be quoted; the ex-factory cost, the
retail price, the installed cost, and a fourth, capital expenditure (capex). This is analysed and a table of
mark-ups provided.
Chapter 9 - TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY
Demand in in MVA capacity for the base year 2016, forecast annually to 2021 by region and 153 countries,
analysed within regions. by type - Generator Transformer, Power Transformer, Distribution Transformer.
Chapter 10 - UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED
CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
A detail set of tables of Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity
(MVA), numbers of units and kVA/unit for distribution transformers, by country and ownership, World,
2016.
Chapter 11 - NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
In the T&D industry, power and distribution transformers are one of the major components of equipment,
in addition to switchgear, cables and other items of equipment. Transformers are needed at all stages in
an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes, either up or down and the transport of power
goes through several stages between generation and final delivery to the consumer. These stages vary
according to the design of the system. The chapter outlines the various stages of the power networks in
detail and identifies where he different types of transformers are positioned, flagging regional differences
in practice.
Chapter 12 - THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries, from
22 GVA in 1900 to 45,188 GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until 2050.
At face value the steady rise in installed capacity suggests that annual demand for power and distribution
transformers will rise steadily every year on a linear path, but this is not the case. It was such an assumption
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as this which led to unsustainable surpluses of production capacity in the electro-technical industry in the
1990s and the demise of many hitherto respected and successful companies. Over 200 transformer
factories were closed between 1970 and 2000. Figures plot installed transformer capacity and annual
demand based on replacement cycles of 40 years for power transformers and 30 years for distribution
transformers. The long-term demand cycle of new and renewal does not equate to short term
expenditure. At present, if replacement had been carried out as needed demand would be going down.
However, replacement has been delayed for years, especially in the transmission sector and short term
market is increasing. The long- term demand cycle is a tool for long-term planning, while the short-term
expenditure projections are for immediate sales and marketing purposes.
Chapter 13 - TRANSFORMER: GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA: MW
The ratio of transformer capacity to generating capacity is a useful statistic because generating capacity is
comprehensively recorded whereas transformer capacity is less well documented. This enables us not only
to confirm snapshots of transformation capacity at any point in time but also to plot long term trends and
demand cycles for transformers based on the historical data for generating capacity. Power transformers
have along service lives, often 40 years or more, with some still in service aged 60-80 years and even a few
100 years old. It is therefore essential to plot long term installed capacity. There are variations between
countries, which are the result of different network designs and voltage classes.
Chapter 14 - SMART TRANSFORMERS
Challenges such as the aging power grid, increasing energy demands, spiraling cost of generating electricity and its cost on the environment all point toward the need for a grid that can produce and distribute energy more efficiently and reliably. The smart grid is being developed to deal with these problems. Transformers serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are a key component of a successful transition to a smart grid. The smart grid concept ties together all aspects of the power system, from the plug in the wall at a house or office to a factory, to the distribution system, to power plants of all kinds. For the smart grid to work efficiently, there will be a need for smart transformers. As part of the distribution network, there are millions of transformers in the world; unfortunately, very few have any intelligence or communication capabilities that meet advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) standards or are parts of an advanced sensor infrastructure (ASI) network.
Chapter 15 - N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size
calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer failure,
industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure
and electricity distribution.
Chapter 16 - PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
In recent years, the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors
which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry
trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition.
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Chapter 17 - THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND VOLTAGE
The generating mixture is changing and two aspects will impact on the transformer stock; increases in
distributed power and in renewables. The non-hydro renewable capacity consists mainly of wind power and
solar PV, which have grown rapidly in the last two decades. They will affect transformers because the power
generated enters the grid at different points and at different voltages.
Chapter 18 - ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system.
Approximately 70% of the losses in electricity networks occur in the distribution network with conductor
accounting for 42% of these losses and transformers about 30%. Transformers operate 24 hours/day, 365
days per year and have very long lifetimes, typically 40-50 years for power transformers and around 30
years for distribution transformers. Energy consumption during its service life is the dominant factor in
their life-cycle assessment environmental impact. The increased use of electronic equipment can lead to
increased harmonic currents and higher losses in transformers. Transformers are already efficient pieces
of equipment, with efficiency in the range of 95 to 99 The issue is discussed and details of mandatory
efficiency standards around the world supplied.
Chapter 19 - TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Manufacturers of larger power transformers are easier to identify and their production capacity is either
published or can be estimated. Most countries have numbers of small local producers of distribution
transformers which are sold to local distribution utilities and are poorly documented. Some large countries
have a lot of these companies, notably China, India, Europe and the United States. China, Europe and the
United States have large numbers of distribution utilities, India fewer. The chapter surveys the global
situation with detailed reports for the major countries.
Chapter 20 - LOGISTICS
Power transformers, especially GSU and quad boosters, are among the largest and heaviest pieces of
equipment that must be transported, sometimes over long distances. Because of their size and the small
numbers in service there are only a few manufacturers of the largest units in the world, thereby
necessitating long and complex logistics. This is increasingly mentioned by vendors as a major cost and a
consideration in locating manufacturing sites. It is not our purpose to provide a detailed survey of logistics
in this report but to give a flavour of what is an increasingly important issue of the complexities of delivery
of large, heavy equipment.
Chapter 21 – ELECTRIFICATION
The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms of
electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistication of the electrical market in a
country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed with tables of
electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.
METHODOLOGY
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 15
The power transformer market ........................................................................................................... 15
United States ....................................................................................................................................... 16
Europe .................................................................................................................................................. 17
CIS ........................................................................................................................................................ 19
Middle East and Africa ......................................................................................................................... 19
Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................................................... 19
China .................................................................................................................................................... 20
Japan .................................................................................................................................................... 21
India ..................................................................................................................................................... 21
Korea .................................................................................................................................................... 22
Taiwan .................................................................................................................................................. 22
LAC ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Long term demand cycle ..................................................................................................................... 23
Transformer: generator capacity ratios - MVA - MW .......................................................................... 23
Channels to market .............................................................................................................................. 24
Transformer types ............................................................................................................................... 24
Efficiency transformers ........................................................................................................................ 25
Smart transformers .............................................................................................................................. 25
Trends in the generation mix ............................................................................................................... 26
Manufacturing capacity, global and by region .................................................................................... 26
Price trend ........................................................................................................................................... 27
Redundancy ......................................................................................................................................... 27
Logistics ................................................................................................................................................ 28
Electrification ....................................................................................................................................... 28
1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET ................................................................. 29
2. NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET ...................................................................................... 32
MARKET REVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 32
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 33
Composition of demand ...................................................................................................................... 34
The utility market in the United States ................................................................................................ 35
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 35
Utility investment ................................................................................................................................ 36
Manufacturing industry review - facilities ........................................................................................... 37
Power transformers ............................................................................................................................. 37
USA plant ............................................................................................................................................. 38
NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico .............................................................................................. 38
Large power transformers (LPT) .......................................................................................................... 38
Medium power transformers .............................................................................................................. 41
Distribution transformers .................................................................................................................... 41
MV distribution transformer ............................................................................................................... 41
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Liquid immersed .................................................................................................................................. 41
Dry type ................................................................................................................................................ 41
LV distribution transformers ................................................................................................................ 42
Dry type ................................................................................................................................................ 42
Purchase considerations and delivery channels .................................................................................. 42
National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) ...................................................................... 43
CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................. 43
MEPS standards ................................................................................................................................... 43
3. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS ................................................................................................. 45
REGIONAL MARKET .................................................................................................................................. 45
Regional overview of the European utility system .............................................................................. 48
Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry ................................................................... 49
High efficiency transformers ................................................................................................................ 50
A changing network landscape - Distributed Power – smart transformers ........................................ 50
European utility crisis ........................................................................................................................... 51
Market Drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 53
MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 54
European manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................... 54
FRANCE .................................................................................................................................................... 56
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 56
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 56
Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France ............................................................. 56
GERMANY................................................................................................................................................. 58
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 58
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 58
Market leader - Siemens ...................................................................................................................... 59
German utility crisis ............................................................................................................................. 59
Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 60
ITALY......................................................................................................................................................... 61
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 61
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 61
Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 61
SPAIN ........................................................................................................................................................ 62
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 62
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 62
Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 62
UNITED KINGDOM ................................................................................................................................... 63
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 63
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 63
Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 63
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TURKEY .................................................................................................................................................... 64
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 64
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 65
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 65
4. CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET ................................................................................................................ 66
RUSSIA ..................................................................................................................................................... 66
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 66
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 66
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 66
5. MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS ........................................................................ 68
6. ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS .............................................................................................. 71
REGIONAL OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 71
Investment as a % of GDP .................................................................................................................... 74
CHINA ....................................................................................................................................................... 76
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 77
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 77
MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 78
Manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................................... 78
JAPAN ....................................................................................................................................................... 80
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 80
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 81
MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 81
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 81
Overseas production............................................................................................................................ 83
INDIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 83
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 84
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 84
MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 85
Manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................................... 85
KOREA ...................................................................................................................................................... 87
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 87
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 87
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 88
TAIWAN ................................................................................................................................................... 88
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 89
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 89
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................ 89
7. LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS ............................................................................................................. 90
BRAZIL ...................................................................................................................................................... 92
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 92
Market drivers ..................................................................................................................................... 92
Manufacturing industry review ........................................................................................................... 92
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MEXICO .................................................................................................................................................... 93
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................ 94
Market drivers ...................................................................................................................................... 94
MEPS Standards ................................................................................................................................... 94
Transformer manufacturers................................................................................................................. 94
8. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND INSTALLED COST ...................................................... 96
GLOBAL DEMAND ................................................................................................................................ 96
NORTH AMERICA ................................................................................................................................. 96
EUROPE AND CIS .................................................................................................................................. 97
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ................................................................................................................... 98
ASIA PACIFIC ......................................................................................................................................... 98
LAC ....................................................................................................................................................... 99
9. TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY .................................................................................... 100
GLOBAL DEMAND .................................................................................................................................. 100
NORTH AMERICA ................................................................................................................................... 100
EUROPE AND CIS .................................................................................................................................... 101
MIDDLE EAST.......................................................................................................................................... 104
AFRICA .................................................................................................................................................... 105
ASIA PACIFIC ........................................................................................................................................... 107
LAC ......................................................................................................................................................... 110
10. UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY,
AND NUMBER AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT ............................... 112
11. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT ............................................................................................... 123
THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS ......................................................................................................... 123
Stage 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 123
Stage 2 ................................................................................................................................................ 123
Stage 3 ................................................................................................................................................ 123
Stage 4 ................................................................................................................................................ 123
Network Configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems ................................. 124
INDUSTRY ........................................................................................................................................... 125
Review of regional utility network practices ..................................................................................... 125
The link from medium voltage to low voltage ................................................................................... 125
North America .................................................................................................................................... 126
Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 127
Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 127
Types of transformer ......................................................................................................................... 128
Liquid dielectric transformers ............................................................................................................ 129
Dry type transformers ........................................................................................................................ 129
Gas filled transformers....................................................................................................................... 130
Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity ...................................................................... 130
Ownership of power and distribution transformers .......................................................................... 131
Ownership of GSU transformers ........................................................................................................ 131
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12. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050 ............................................................................... 133
INSTALLED CAPACITY ............................................................................................................................. 133
INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND ................................................................................................ 133
The China Factor ................................................................................................................................ 136
13. TRANSFORMER: GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA: MW ....................................................... 139
14. SMART TRANSFORMERS ................................................................................................................ 145
15. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT ............................................... 148
Network failure .................................................................................................................................. 148
Transformer failure ............................................................................................................................ 148
Transformer age ................................................................................................................................. 148
Tap changer ........................................................................................................................................ 149
Windings ............................................................................................................................................ 149
Core .................................................................................................................................................... 149
Tank .................................................................................................................................................... 149
Solid insulation ................................................................................................................................... 149
Cooler ................................................................................................................................................. 149
Oil insulation ...................................................................................................................................... 149
Bushings ............................................................................................................................................. 150
Industrial reliability ............................................................................................................................ 150
Network reliability ............................................................................................................................. 151
N-1 and the networks ........................................................................................................................ 151
Electricity distribution ........................................................................................................................ 152
Electricity transmission ...................................................................................................................... 152
Massive size of a power transformer ................................................................................................. 153
Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy ................................................................................ 154
Generation ......................................................................................................................................... 154
Transmission ...................................................................................................................................... 154
Distribution ........................................................................................................................................ 154
16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES .................................................... 155
PPI - Producer Price Index .................................................................................................................. 155
USA ..................................................................................................................................................... 155
EU ....................................................................................................................................................... 156
China .................................................................................................................................................. 157
Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 157
Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 158
Demand for transformers - market and industry trends ................................................................... 158
Production capacity ........................................................................................................................... 158
Production capacity of raw materials ................................................................................................ 158
Production capacity of manufactured equipment ............................................................................. 159
Manufacturing input cost composition ............................................................................................. 159
Composition of manufacturing inputs ............................................................................................... 159
Input costs - raw materials................................................................................................................. 160
Metal consumption ............................................................................................................................ 160
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Steel ................................................................................................................................................... 160
Electrical Steel .................................................................................................................................... 160
The electrical steel market ................................................................................................................. 162
Electrical steel producers ................................................................................................................... 163
Copper and Aluminium ...................................................................................................................... 163
Copper ................................................................................................................................................ 164
Aluminium .......................................................................................................................................... 164
Transformer oil .................................................................................................................................. 165
Input costs – labour ........................................................................................................................... 166
Input costs – energy ........................................................................................................................... 168
17. THE POINT OF CONNECTION, CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION AND VOLTAGE ........... 169
Trends in the generation mix ............................................................................................................. 169
The impact of generation developments on transformation technology ......................................... 169
Decentralised power .......................................................................................................................... 172
Czech Republic ................................................................................................................................... 173
Germany ............................................................................................................................................. 174
Italy .................................................................................................................................................... 175
Spain ................................................................................................................................................... 176
18. ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS ....................................................... 178
MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) ............................................................................ 179
United States ...................................................................................................................................... 179
Canada ............................................................................................................................................... 179
Mexico ................................................................................................................................................ 179
European Union ................................................................................................................................. 179
Australia ............................................................................................................................................. 180
Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 180
China .................................................................................................................................................. 180
India ................................................................................................................................................... 180
Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 180
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers ................................................ 181
The market for AMTs ......................................................................................................................... 182
Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers .......................................................................................... 182
Japan .................................................................................................................................................. 182
China .................................................................................................................................................. 183
India ................................................................................................................................................... 183
Taiwan ................................................................................................................................................ 184
Other .................................................................................................................................................. 184
HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers ..................................................................... 184
19. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY ....................................................................................... 185
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION ................................................................... 185
North America (United States, Canada) ............................................................................................. 186
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Mexico ................................................................................................................................................ 186
Latin America (excluding Mexico) ...................................................................................................... 187
China .................................................................................................................................................. 187
India ................................................................................................................................................... 189
Korea .................................................................................................................................................. 190
Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 190
CIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 190
Africa .................................................................................................................................................. 191
Global balance of production capacity and demand ......................................................................... 191
20. LOGISTICS ....................................................................................................................................... 192
Rail transport ..................................................................................................................................... 192
Road transport ................................................................................................................................... 194
Alternative solutions .......................................................................................................................... 197
21. ELECTRIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 198
Regional growth characteristics ......................................................................................................... 202
Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................................................. 202
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................... 202
MENA ................................................................................................................................................. 203
Latin America ..................................................................................................................................... 203
Europe ................................................................................................................................................ 203
CIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 203
North America .................................................................................................................................... 203
The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry ......................................................... 203
22. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................. 205
Short term demand forecast.............................................................................................................. 205
Long term demand cycle .................................................................................................................... 205
Demand cycles and the market ......................................................................................................... 206
StatPlan Energy Databases ................................................................................................................ 206
Transformation capacity .................................................................................................................... 207
Transformer Report Sample Pages
13
1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER
MARKET
Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is estimated at XXXX, rising by a cagr of
XXX% to XXXX GVA in 2020. The value in 2016 is $ XX billion, increasing in nominal values by a cagr of XXX%
to $XXX billion in 2020.
Growth in real terms will be fastest in the Middle East at XXX% cagr, Asia Pacific with XXX% and Sub-
Saharan Africa with XXX%. North America will grow at a cagr of XXX% and Europe XXX%. The lowest growth
rates will be in ……………….. In 2016 power transformer sales will amount to XXXX GVA and distribution
transformers XXXX GVA, totaling XXXX GVA.
Over the five-year period both power transformers and distribution transformers will achieve capacity
growth of XXX% a year.
The value per MVA will increase by a cagr of XXX% in real terms up to 2020 and $XXX% in nominal terms.
Table 1: Power and distribution transformer demand, MVA and $ in real and nominal values
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr
Value Nominal $ million
Value real $ million
Total MVA
$/MVA nominal
$/MVA real
With surplus production capacity and falling metal prices, transformer prices
Transformer Report Sample Pages
14
Transformer stock
There are plentiful statistics about distribution transformers in the United States, including historical tables
which enable us to plot the development of the distribution transformer stock over time in numbers and
capacity and so to chart the development of transformers in size. There is a lack of information for power
transformers.
Table 2: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2016
MVA Number
PTs
DTs
Sources: DOE, various reports, StatPlan estimates
There are over XXXXX generators and XXXXXX power transformers in the United States.
2. EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
REGIONAL MARKET
The European market for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is estimated at $XXX billion, rising
to $XXX billion in 2021. Real growth of transformer demand in Europe will average XXX% compared with
nominal growth of XXX%. Turkey is the fastest growing market with real growth of XXX% and nominal
growth of XXX%, caused by high inflation. Germany, the UK and France are the fastest growing in the EU
in real terms with XXX%, XXX% and XXX% respectively. All three markets have strong renewables growth,
especially Germany, and investment in transmission to serve the renewables base and to replace aged
infrastructure.
Table 3: Europe, total transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2016-2021, $ nominal million
All transformers 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr
EUROPE
Albania
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
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15
4. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY AND
INSTALLED COST
There are basically three levels at which the cost of equipment can be quoted; the ex-factory cost, the
retail price, the installed cost, and a fourth, capital expenditure (capex), which includes external costs such
as legal fees, engineering etc. It is important to specify the point in the purchase transaction to which the
cost data applies as there is a wide range between the factory cost and the final installed cost in the
customer’s network, and even wider if comparing ex-factory cost with capex. Manufacturer selling price
plus
markups……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………….
Liquid-immersed power transformers are usually purchased by
……………………………………………………………………………………….
Distribution dry-type transformers are less demanding in their installation process ……………………………………………………………………………………………..
GLOBAL DEMAND
Table 4: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost, World, 2016, $ million
Ex-factory cost $ million Installed cost $ million GSU PT DT Total GSU PT DT Total
World
World exc. China
5. TRANSFORMER DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY
GLOBAL DMAND
The global transformer market will show high growth from XXXX GVA in 2016 at XXX% over the next five
years to 2020 to XXXX GVA…………………………………………………………………………………………
Table 5: Annual demand for power and distribution transformers, MVA, World, 2016-2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 cagr
Power and distribution transformers World World exc. China
Power transformers World World exc. China
Distribution transformers World World exc. China
Transformer Report Sample Pages
16
6. UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND
DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY,
NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION
TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
Table 6: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, World, 2016
Power transformer capacity Distribution transformer capacity All trf capacity
GSU GSU Utility Industry Total PTs GSU Utility Industry Total DTs PTs + DTs
≥ 220 kV < 220 kV < 35 kV
MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA
Ed 5 2016 6,484,580
Ed 4 2014
Table 7: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership, World, 2016
Distribution transformers Average capacity per transformers
Utility Industry Total Utility Industry Total
Number Number Number kVA/trf kVA/trf kVA/trf
Ed 5 2016
Ed 4 2014
Table 8: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, North America, 2016
Power transformer capacity Distribution transformer capacity All trf capacity
GSU GSU Utility Industry Total PTs GSU Utility Industry Total DTs PTs + DTs
≥ 220 kV < 220 kV < 35 kV MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA MVA
USA
Canada
North America
Table 9: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership North America, 2016
Distribution transformers Average capacity per transformers
Utility Industry Total Utility Industry Total
Number Number Number kVA/trf kVA/trf kVA/trf
USA
Canada
North America
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7. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
INSTALLED CAPACITY
Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries,
from XXX GVA in 1900 to XXXX GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until
it……………………….
Growth of installed transformer capacity is linear, but demand for equipment is cyclical.
Figure 1: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1900 - 2050, GVA
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16. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING
TRANSFORMER PRICES
The prices of electrical equipment have been volatile over the years and will continue to be so. Many
factors contribute to this. The principal factors influencing transformer prices are:
1. Demand for transformers, market and industry trends,
2. Production capacity,
3. Input prices of;
raw materials
energy
labour
4. The economic and financial climate.
These factors interact on each other; e.g. demand drives up input costs, which drive up the prices of
finished goods, which can eventually depress demand. Each of these factors is reviewed in this chapter.
We predict that demand for transformers will ………………………………………….