Transcontinental Flight Capacity
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Transcript of Transcontinental Flight Capacity
Transcontinental Flight Capacity
Peter CerussiMichael Gerson
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Backstory
• Effects of Sept 11, 2001– Shook America to it’s core– Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack– Changed airport security procedures
• The airports are still vulnerable…• Americans consider flight as a symbol of
freedom• Terrorist want to deny transcontinental travel
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Problem Statement
• How does the loss of an airport or airports effect the ability of the airlines to move people across country?
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Nodes
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Start Nodes
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End Nodes
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Example of Edges
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Example of Capacity
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31
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Data
• Department of Transportation– Bureau of Transportation Statistics
• Amount of flights per month • Divided by 31 for average daily flights
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Example of an Attack
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31
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Nodal Statistics
Transcontinental Capacity: 1110
Start Nodes:Total flights: 1894
End Nodes:Total flights:
3415
SEA
SFO
LAX
MSPDEN
ORD
HOU
DFW
SLC
BOS
ATL
IAD
JFK
ST
Largest AirportsAtlanta 568Chicago 501Los Angeles 463Denver 453
Phoenix 440Dallas 421Las Vegas 375Houston 299
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
• Terrorist attack transcontinental travel
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S E440 440∞
Attacking Transcontinental Travel
Destroy
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
Destroy
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Comparative Results
Largest Airports• Atlanta568• Chicago 501• Los Angeles463• Denver453• Phoenix 440• Dallas 421• Las Vegas 375• Houston 299
Attacked Airports• Los Angeles 463• San Francisco 276• Seattle 211• San Diego 202• Phoenix 440• Las Vegas 375• Denver 453• Salt Lake City 219
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Operator Resilience Curve
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FBI Involvement
• The initial plan is to attack the west coast• FBI was alerted to the plan and intervenes• Resource restrictions are limited to four nodes• The four largest nodes are protected
– Seattle– San Francisco– Los Angeles– San Diego
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FBI Involvement
Destroy
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FBI Involvement
Destroy
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Comparative Results
Largest Airports• Atlanta568• Chicago 501• Los Angeles463• Denver453• Phoenix 440• Dallas 421• Las Vegas 375• Houston 299
Attacked Airports• Phoenix 463• Las Vegas 276• Denver 211• Dallas 202• Houston 440• New York 375• Atlanta 453
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Comparative OR Curve
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New Assumption
• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers
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S E440 440∞
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Nodal Statistics
Transcontinental Capacity: 480
Start Nodes:Total flights: 1894
End Nodes:Total flights:
3415
SEA
SFO
LAX
MSPDEN
ORD
HOU
DFW
SLC
BOS
ATL
IAD
JFK
ST
Largest AirportsAtlanta 568Chicago 501Los Angeles 463Denver 453
Phoenix 440Dallas 421Las Vegas 375Houston 299
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
Destroy
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
Destroy
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Operator Resilience Curve
0%
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New Assumption
• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers• Attacks degrade airports
– If attacked airports capacity is 50%– A second attack and the airport is destroyed
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S
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M1
E
220
∞
∞
220
440 440
Attacking Transcontinental Travel
Degrade
Destroy
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
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Operator Resilience Curve 2
0%
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New Assumption
• Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers• Attacks degrade airports
– If attacked airports capacity is 20% – A second attack and the airport is destroyed
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M2
M1
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∞
∞
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440 440
Attacking Transcontinental Travel
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Attacking Transcontinental Travel
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Operator Resilience Curve 3
0%
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Conclusion
• If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on transcontinental travel, authorities can predict the location of the attacks
• If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on the west coast, authorities should be prepared for significant lose in transcontinental travel
• Airports should be designed such that they are difficult to completely destroy
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Follow-Implementations
• Change the start and end airports• Adjust the damage levels• Adjust the number of attacks per airport• Add additional nodes
QuestionsTranscontinental Flight Capacity
Peter CerussiMichael Gerson
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