Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005 Estimating Atmospheric CO 2 using AIRS Observations in the ECMWF Data...
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Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Estimating Atmospheric CO2 using AIRS Observations in the ECMWF
Data Assimilation System
Richard Engelen European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Thanks to Yogesh Tiwari and Frédéric Chevallier for model comparison plots
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Outline
• Why estimate CO2 at a NWP centre?
• Current setup of CO2 data assimilation system
• Error estimation
• Monthly mean results
• Comparisons with independent observations
• Comparisons with CO2 models
• Outlook
• Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Why at a NWP centre?
Advantages:
• Strong constraint on temperature and water vapour from all sorts of conventional and satellite observations, which allows focus on extraction of CO2 information from AIRS
• Experience with handling, processing, and assimilation of large amounts of data
• Good observation monitoring capability
Disadvantage:
• Time scale conflicts between medium-range weather forecast and environment monitoring (e.g., bias correction, tracer transport modelling)
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Description of current CO2 assimilation system
• CO2 is currently treated as a so-called ‘column’ variable within the 4D-Var data assimilation system.
• This means that CO2 is not a model variable and is therefore not moved around by the model transport.
• For each AIRS observation location a CO2 variable is added to the control (minimisation) vector. The CO2 estimates therefore make full use of the 4D-Var fields of temperature, specific humidity and ozone.
• The CO2 variable itself is limited to a column-averaged tropospheric mixing ratio with fixed profile shape, but a variable tropopause.
• A background of 376 ppmv is used with a background error of 30 ppmv.
• 18 channels in the long-wave CO2 band are used
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Channel selection
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Error estimates
12 2 T 1a b
H R H12 2 T 1
a b H R H
22
ji
jir
22
ji
jir
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Assimilation Error
a
N1
N
aiN
1
aj
N
aiijr :ncorrelatio Extra
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Results
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Comparison with JAL
Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Comparison with JAL
Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA
St.dev. = 1.3 ppmv and RMS = 1.4 ppmv for 5-day mean on a 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxSt.dev. = 1.3 ppmv and RMS = 1.4 ppmv for 5-day mean on a 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxSt.dev. = 1.5 ppmv and RMS = 1.7 ppmv for 5-day mean on a 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxSt.dev. = 1.5 ppmv and RMS = 1.7 ppmv for 5-day mean on a 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxSt.dev. = 1.0 ppmv and RMS = 1.1 ppmv for 5-day mean on three 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxesSt.dev. = 1.0 ppmv and RMS = 1.1 ppmv for 5-day mean on three 6˚ x 6˚ grid boxes
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Comparison with CMDL
Flight data kindly provided by Pieter Tans, NOAA/CMDL
Molokai Island, Hawaii
Dots: CMDL flight observation; Black line: ECMWF estimate
Dotted line: Background value
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Comparison with CMDL
Flight data kindly provided by Pieter Tans, NOAA/CMDL
Scatter diagrams between mean flight profile concentrations and analysis estimates for various stations show good results.
St.dev.=1.6; RMS=1.6 St.dev.=0.7; RMS=1.1
St.dev.=1.0; RMS=1.6St.dev.=0.6; RMS=0.6
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
TM3 LMDzJan - Feb
Mar - Apr
May - Jun
Jul - Aug
Sep - Oct
Nov - Dec
Solid = AIRS Dashed = Model
2 ppmv
AIRS compared with models for
2003
AIRS compared with models for
2003
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Comparison with LMDz
ECMWF estimates LSCE CO2 simulation
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Outlook
• Experimental work on CO2 data assimilation will evolve into a full greenhouse gas data assimilation system within GEMS project
• Other satellite observations will be assimilated:
IASI
CrIS
OCO
GOSAT
Main issue will be the definition of our background error covariance matrix. This represents the error in the model transport and the prescribed fluxes.
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon simulation
12 hour
Forecast
Analysis
Radon
Analysis
Radon
12 hour
Forecast
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments
Transcom, Paris 13 June 2005
Radon experiments