Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, 15-19 April 2013

Sardar SarfarazRegional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi

sarfarazmet@hotmail.com

Brief Introduction of Pakistan Meteorological Department

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Secretary: Ministry of Defence

Director General

Chief Meteorologist Chief Meteorologist Chief Meteorologist Chief MeteorologistForecasting Flood Drought - Agromet Seismic Research

Chief Meteorologist

Chief Admin Officer

2 - DIRECTORS 3 - DIRECTORS 2 - DIRECTORS 3 - DIRECTORS6 - DIRECTORS

20 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors

Aviation Meteorology

SERVICES

Hydrology/flood forecast

AgrometeorologyDrought

Seismology and Tsunami early warning

Services and Facilities, PMD provides

Marine & cyclone warning

Public weather service

PMD’s Infrastructure for Monitoring the Weather

HRPT

1 -Islamabad2 -Quetta

FY-2 E/D1- Islamabad2. Karachi

PMD has 4 Satellite ground stations:2 HRPT systems installed at Islamabad and Quetta.

2 Chinese ground satellite stations, working at Islamabad and Karachi.

Satellite Ground Stations

Radar’s Network

10-cm Doppler Radars

1- Lahore2- Mangla

QPM Radar

1- Sialkot

5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars1- Islamabad2- D.I.Khan3- Rahim Yar Khan4- Karachi

PMD has 7 Radars, in operation at different parts of Pakistan, which cover almost 80% area of Pakistan.6 new Radars provision is under progress which are expected to complete within a year or so.

Rain

Temps

Winds

PMD- HRM Forecast Products

Numerical WeatherProducts

Based on DATA, TECHNIQUE and SKILL, the Numerical Weather products like Precipitation, Temperatures and Winds are generated twice a day with a validity of next 1 – 7 Days. All such products are available on PMD website, www.pmd.gov.pk

PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet Message• Under the Global Maritime

Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) PMD prepares and issues the marine safety message for MetArea-IX.

• Message passed daily at 0700UTC via telnet to LES Perth, Australia for onward transmission to ships via INMARSAT.

Met Area-IX map

Karachi coastal radio (ASK, NAVETAX), covering the Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, broadcasts it at 518KHz at 0630 and 1830 UTC.

Of Indian Ocean fleet forecast areas the PMD is responsible for the areas B00, B30, B25 and B20.

PMD – fleet forecast

MORNING FLEET FORECAST GENERAL INFERENCE, DATED ----, ---- Weather: Fair with hazy morning B00, B30, B25 and B20. AREA FORECAST VALID FOR 12 HOURS COMMENCING -- / 0700 U.T.C

Area Weather Surface Wind State of Sea Swell Period Visibility

B00 Fair with misty morning

NW’ly08-10 Kts Slight 0.5-0.8m 2-3 Sec

* Good may be poor in mist.

B30 Fair with misty morning.

NW’ly05-07 Kts Smooth 0.1.-5m Do

* Good may be poor in mist.

B25 Fair with hazy morning

E/SE’ly03-05 Kts

north 24N & SW 5-7Kts B/W 21-24N.

Smooth 0.1-0.5m Do

* Good may be moderate in haze.

B20 Fair with hazy morning

SE’ly05-10 Kts

Smooth/slight0.1-0.5m 2 Sec

* Good may be moderate in haze.

PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet message for MetArea-IXTOINMARSAT COASTAL EARTH STATION (CES) +PERTH AUSTRALIA.SECURITE MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR METAREA-IX VALID FOR24 HOURS COMMENCING 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2010 BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT. PART -I: Morning satellite imagery shows intense convective clouds over the East Arabian Sea. PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGE PART –III: FORECASTS:

SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA I. WIND NE/SW 07 -10 KTS LOCALLY 15 KTS EAST OF 65E AND N/NW 05-07 KTS WEST OF 65E.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH MISTY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN MIST. IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.

SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMANI. WIND E/SE 05-07 KTS NORTH OF 24N, SW 08-12 KTS SOUTH OF 24N.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH. SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)I. WIND N 10-15 KTS GUST 20KTS EAST OF 60E BEC.II WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING EAST OF 65E.III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT. SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN I. WIND E/NE 07-10 KTS GUST 15 KTS WEST OF 50E. II WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.

Forecast and Warning Services

Forecast and warning services’ delivery for emergency preparedness and response:

• Current warnings system, • Challenges, • Pressures and • Concerns

PMD – Severe Weather Warning System

PMD’s Current Warning System:

Snow-melt Flooding

Heavy Rains/River Flooding

Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding

Cyclones/Coastal Flooding

Urban Flooding

Water Crises/Droughts

Extreme Heat in May/June

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)

Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)

Dry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain)

Potential Extreme Weather Events Pakistan is vulnerable to

National Weather Forecasting Office, Islamabad and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi

NDMA/PDMAs/DDMAs

District/local Govts CBOs

Media/print & electronic NGOs

High Govt officials KPT

PN

Information Flow

N(P/D)DMA- National/Provincial/District Disaster Management Authority,KPT – Karachi Port Trust, PN – Pakistan Navy, CBOs- Community Based Organizations

Meteorological Advisories Meteorological watch (7 – 10 days earlier)Issued to give a synopsis of the actual (real time) existing weather

situation around Pakistan Meteorological alert (5 – 7 days earlier) Issued to make the authorities and public informed of the

developing weather viz likely to affect any area of Pakistan Meteorological advisory (3 – 5 days earlier)Issued when developing weather is quiet certain to approach

Pakistan areas and the Govt authorities are alerted.

Meteorological warning Issued when there is a certainty of violent weather occurrence

over Pakistan areas.

Distribution of Rainfall

• Fairly Widespread- Covering almost 100% Area

• Widespread- Covering nearly 75% Area

• Scattered- Covering nearly 50% Area

• Isolated- Covering less than 50% Area

• Few- Covering less than 25% Area

Probability of rainfall occurrence and intensity

Probability Of Occurrence Terminology<25% Could Occur

26-50% May Occur

51-75% Would Occur

76-100% Will Occur

Rainfall Intensity terms Quantity (mm)

Very heavy 89 or more

Heavy 44.5 - 88.9

Rather heavy 22.4 – 44.4

Moderate 9.7 – 22.3

Light rain 4.6 - 9.6

Very light rain 2.5 – 4.5

Little rain 0.3 – 2.4

Date: August 03, 2011Time: 1600 PST

Press Release

Monsoon Rains Predicted in Upper Parts of the Country

• Met Office predicted another spell of monsoon rains in upper parts of the country from Thursday that may produce scattered Rains/Thundershowers during next 3-4 days. Later on this weather system is likely to spread to other parts of the country.

• According to Met Office, scattered Rain/Thundershower

is expected in Kashmir, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Malakand, Hazara, and Kohat divisions during next 2-3 days. While weather is likely to remain hot and humid in rest of the country during the period.

• After wards more monsoon currents are likely to penetrate in parts of the country from Saturday that would produce scattered Rain/Thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir from Saturday to Tuesday.

Spokesman

Weather Advisories - August, 2011

Weather Advisory (recent one)

PMD – Cyclone Warning System

10 AWSs installed along Sindh-Makran coast

Other than AWS four coastal surface observing stations, Karachi, Ormara, Pasni and Gwadar also work round-the-clock

PMD – Cyclone Warning System

PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan.

 Tracking of the tropical cyclones

Done with the help of

1. Conventional surface and upper-air observations from inland stations and ship observations.

2. Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres.3. The High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) implemented at PMD.4. 5cm Weather surveillance radar installed at Karachi.5. Meteorological satellites’ output and data.6. AWSs installed along Sindh and Makran coast.7. SODAR – the vertical wind profiler- with RASS installed at Karachi.8. RadioSonde ground station installed at Karachi.

PMD – Cyclone Warning System

Cyclone warning centre does• spot on any cyclonic disturbance in the Arabian Sea by close and careful analysis

of synoptic weather maps and satellite imagery • assess its potential of conversion into a cyclone • issue the pre-warning advisory 7 days earlier to cyclone formation (say, when a

low/depression forms at around Lat 10N near west Indian coast)• issue “Tropical Cyclone Warning” containing cyclone current location (Lat/Long),

past 3/6hr movement, CEP, maximum sustained winds, intensity and likely track with 3-4 days lead time

warning of cyclone also contains the risk of “disaster / damages due to windstorm, torrential rains & storm surge which might result in inundation/ coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, demolition of electric installations, failure of infrastructure, tearing away of Kutcha houses and collapse of buildings especially loosely structured”

• observe closely and monitor every hour /3hr it’s central estimated Pressure (CEP), winds, lower & upper-air anticyclone/ steering factor and

• track it with careful watch and issue update/ warning every 3/6-hrs accordingly.

PMD – Cyclone Warning System (cyclone detection at surface wx map)

Surface weather maps depicting the Low, depression and Cyclone. For tracking of cyclone this synoptic situation is corroborated with upper-air analysis, satellite imageries and information from RSMC, Delhi cyclone bulletin.

Cyclone Terminologies usedEffects during Landfall Corresponding

Wind SpeedPressure (hpa) Disturbance type

Gusty winds and damages detaching fruit from the trees

22 – 27 Kts >=996 Depression

Negligible damages to houses, trees, some crops and caravan.

28 – 33 Kts 986-995 Deep Depression

Minor house damage, significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts.

34 – 47 Kts 971-985 Cyclonic Storm

Some roof and structural damage, destruction of some caravans and power failure

48 – 63 Kts 956-970 Severe Cyclonic Storm

Significant structural damage, caravans blown away & dangerous air born debris

64 – 119 Kts 930-955 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Widespread destructions, uprooting trees

>= 120 Kts <=929 Super Cyclonic Storm

PMD – Cyclone Warning System: A specific case of “PHET”

Cyclone warning system - PHET (contd.)

Cyclone Warning System-PHET (contd.)

Weather Services for MOUNTAINEERING

Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System

Challenges, Pressures and Concerns: Challenges:1. First and foremost is the forecast accuracy and area-specificity and

precision of warning.2. Translation of message (warning) severity into grass-root public

level.3. Making people 100% realize of the actual gravity of looming

danger. 4. Local people language, social customs and traditions sometimes

pose a challenge too.5. Met terminologies particularly getting across the message down to

the village-level people.6. Lack of proper resources in meeting the challenge. ………..

Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)

Pressures:1. Pressure from within…………..is your forecast/

warning (specially the evacuation warning) going to be right/wrong leading to shatter the public confidence?

2. Pressure from media to get “unscheduled” updates/latest just to make it a breaking news and lead the competitors.

………..

Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)

Concerns:1. Lack of resources (human - adequately trained

or not, infrastructure and work environment etc.).

2. Capacity building in NMHSs.3. Concerns = challenges + pressures……….

Flood Forecasting Division

National Weather Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tsunami Warning Centre

+92 42-99200208 ,99200139

+92 51-9250363-4 ,051-9250595

+92 21-99261434 ,99261404 ,99261417

+92 21-99261429

Accessibility of Weather Advisories

PMD wx warning centres- contacts’ details

Cyclone Annimation

Thank You