Climate Adaptation training in SE Asia –SEI Oxford and SEI Asia. October-November 2013

Social vulnerability analysis –linking poverty, livelihoods and climate

Building on work from SEI colleagues and Agnes Otzelberger (CARE-PECCN)

• Various definitions:– Ordinary use–capacity to be wounded.– Scientific use of ‘vulnerability’ –roots in

geography and natural hazards research. But the term is now central in a variety of research contexts.

– IPCC definition:• “The degree to which a system is suscpetible to, or unable

to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes”

Understanding vulnerability

For further definitions see: http://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/vulnerability-definitions

• 3 components of vulnerability (IPCC vuln. definition cont’d):

– Exposure is the degree of climate stress a system or community is subjected to

– Sensitivity refers to the impact climate stresses have on the system or community

– Adaptive capacity is the ability of the system or community to adjust to the changes

• BUT:

– Variations between social groups, spaces, scales

– Variations over time

Adaptation addresses differential impacts of climate change on people, communities, sectors, countries…

• Vulnerability to climate change: exposure, sensitivity, and capacity depend on roles, responsibilities, access, control, culture… result of power relations

• Different groups within a community have different but complementary roles, knowledge, capacities, experience

Vulnerability and capacity: Why “differential”?

• Effective, equitable adaptation requires understanding of vulnerability dynamics within the community and within households.

• Gender influences these dynamics as do other factors

• What other social factors determine climate change vulnerability and why?

Social determinants of vulnerability & capacity

Rights-based approach –rights of all are respected, including the most vulnerable• Gender equality

– Equal rights, opportunities, resources & rewards– Not governed by whether an individual is born

male or female

• Gender equity– Recognition of unequal power relations– Distributional justice

Key concepts in differential vulnerability

Who does what? How?

Where? When? Why?

(Labour)

Who uses what? How?

Where? When? Why?

(access)

Who controls what? How?

Where? When? Why?

(decision-making)

Key gender analysis questions

Who knows what? How?When? Where? Why?(information = power)

Who benefits from what? How? When? Where? Why?

(benefit-sharing)

Who is included in what?How? When? Where? Why?(participation)

Vulnerability frameworks & interpretations

For an overview of different vulnerability frameworks see: http://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/vulnerability-frameworks

Cont’d

What is involved at each level?

International level analysis

District/project level analysis

Regional/country level analysis

Community level analysis

Community meetingsDiscussion sessions and analysisTraining of local facilitatorsParticipatory and Reflect approaches

Stakeholders and focal group meetingsLocal level advocacy and lobbyingDocumentation and liaison

Studies on selected issuesNational level advocacy and lobbyingExchange visits and monitoringNational level workshops

Co-ordination and documentation Technical support to countries involvedPolicy and advocacy workInternational workshops

URL: http://www.actionaid.org.uk/sites/default/files/doc_lib/108_1_participatory_vulnerability_analysis_guide.pdf

• Climate impacts do and will differ:– For different people (individuals, HHs, communities)– For different sectors (health, agriculture, fisheries, forests)– In different areas (villages, towns, cities, districts)– At different scales (local, national, regional, intnl.)– At different times (present, next 10 yrs, 50 yrs)– Specific climatic stresses & shocks experienced may differ– In a single area, some livelihoods will be affected while

others might not– People’s responses differ –coping & adaptation

Why is important the vulnerability lenses?

• Who (or what livelihood groups or sectors) is vulnerable?

• What are the present and future stresses and threats?

• What are they (specifically) vulnerable to?

• Why are they vulnerable?

• What can be done to lessen this vulnerability?

• Done by whom, with what money?

Key questions on vulnerability

• Poverty does not equal vulnerability• Vulnerability is a characteristic of all people,

ecosystemes and regions confronting environmental and socio-economic stresses and shocks.

• Poverty is a reduced (or completely lack of) access to material, economic, social, political or cultural resources needed to satisfy basic needs.

• BUT, the poor are vulnerable in particular ways• Livelihood analysis helps to explore how and why the

poor are vulnerable

Vulnerability is different from poverty

• A livelihood…– ‘Comprises the capabilities, assets (stories,

resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living.

– Is sustainable when can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation’

Chambers and Conway, 1992

Livelihoods definition

1. Human assets: skills, knowledge and info, ability to work, health

2. Natural assets: land, water, wildlife, biodiversity, environment

3. Financial assets: savings, credit, remittances, pensions

4. Physical assets: transport, shelter, water, energy

5. Social assets: networks, groups, trust, access to institutions

The five livelihood assets

Vulnerability in livelihood systems

1. What are the livelihoods at risk?

2. What are the climatic stresses?

3. What are the most sensitive livelihoods & stresses?

4. What indicators represent livelihoods and stresses?

5. What are the outcomes?

6. What are the driving forces?

Linking livelihoods & vulnerability

• To analyze current vulnerability of local communities to changes in climate in the context of multiple stresses and development processes

• Recognize inherent complexity and uncertainty in evolution of various factors

• Identify opportunities for enhancing local adaptive capacity to deal with new and emerging risks associated with climate change

• Inform targeted interventions

Why explore social vulnerability?

VA step VA component

1. Define study area together with stakeholders

Select the spatial and temporal scale of the assessment

2. Get to know place over time

Study context to understand the socio-ecological dynamics that may influence vulnerability

3. Hypothesize who is vulnerable to what

Select the climate hazard that will be analysed, along with the people, assets, and/or ecosystems services that may be harmed by the identified hazard.

4. Develop a causal model of vulnerability

Elaborate a model explaining factors, and relationships among the factors, that lead to vulnerability

5. Find indicators for the elements of vulnerability

Metrics to characterise different parts of the causal model (i.e. decide what is quantifiable and what must be omitted)

6. Operationalize model(s) of vulnerability

Weight and combine indicators to produce a measure of vulnerability; overly different indicators on a map

7. Project future vulnerability Scenarios of the vulnerability variables reflecting trends and expert opinion. Clear explanation of assumptions/uncertainties around the scenarios.

8. Communicate vulnerability creatively

Products from the VA (e.g. reports, maps, websites, photos, video/film, etc.)

Steps in conducting a VA:

(Hammill et al., 2013)

CVCA (CARE)

CRiSTALAdaptation Wizard

USAiD Manual

Participatory Rural Appraisal tools

(e.g. seasonal calendar, Venn

diagram, resource mapping, etc)

Sustainable Livelihoods

approach

UNDP Adaptation

Policy Framework

Red Cross Guide

Tools and methods for vulnerability assessment

Census data,

HH surveys

Quantitative models

Development data and

indicesHazard maps

• Identify the key climate stressors in Lombok/The Philippines is currently vulnerable to

• Understand impacts and consequences of those climate stressors

• Highlight who/what is most and least vulnerable

• Form a basis from which to explore future vulnerabilities under climate change

EXERCISE 1: Livelihood-exposure sensitivity matrix -Objectives

Livelihood-exposure sensitivity matrix (cont’d)http://weadapt.org/knowledge-base/vulnerability/appendix-a-developing-a-livelihood-sensitivity-matrix

Exposure units/climate threats & trends

Climate threat 1/trend(e.g. prolonged dry periods/shifts in the seasons)

Climate threat 2 / trend

(e.g. strong winds, sea level rise)

Climate threat 3/ trend (e.g. flood episodes)

Climate threat 4/trend (e.g. pest invasion, water-borne diseases)

Natural Resource 1Natural Resource 2Natural Resource 3Livelihood 1

Livelihood 2

Livelihood 3

Social group 1

Social group 2

Social group 3

• weADAPT.org > vulnerability initiative• Vulnerability, Adger (2006) in Global Environmental

Change• Linking vulnerability, adaptation and resilience science to

practice, Vogel et al (2007)• CARE’s Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Handbook

(2010)• Vulnerability Indices Review, Fussel (2010)• Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient

societies: Conceptual frameworks & desfinitons, Birkmann• Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity: towards

a clarification of the science-policy interface, Hinkel (2011)

Further resources:

• Chambers, R. and Conway, G.R. (1992) ‘Sustainable Rural Livelihoods: Practical Concepts for the 21st Century’, Discussion Paper 296. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies

• Downing, T. et al. (2001). Vulnerability indices. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. UNEP, Policy Series 3: 91 pp.

• Downing, T.E., Aerts, J., Soussan, J., Barthelemy, O., Bharwani, S., Ionescu, C., Hinkel, Jl, Klein, R.j.T., Mata, L., Moss, Sl, Purkey, Dl and Ziervogel, G. (2006) Integrating social vulnerability into water management. Oxford, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford.

• O’Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L.P. & Schjollden, A. (2007) Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses, Climate Policy, 7: 1, 73-88

• Fussel, H.M. (2009). Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts.Background note. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.

• Hammill, A., Bizikova, L., Dekens, J., McCandless, M. 2013. Comparative analysis of climate change vulnerability assessments: Lessons from Tunisia and Indonesia. GIZ: Eschborn

Cont’d: