Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions&...
Transcript of Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions&...
![Page 1: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Traffic Predictions Supporting General Aviation
Carlo Lancia, D. Taurino, G. Frau, J. Verstraeten, and C. Le Tallec
![Page 2: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation
• Help GA pilots staying well-‐clear of surrounding traffic
• Display current/future traffic data on moving-‐map apps
• Expected favourable safety effects
• Mitigate the limitations of see-‐and-‐avoid principle
![Page 3: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Flight Intent
• Sequence of straight legs that the pilot plans to fly
• Many commercial apps can help the pilot with this planning phase
• Due to external factors, the realisation of a flight may substantially differ from the intended route
http://i402.photobucket.com/albums/pp109/andrewclaridge/leg7.jpg
![Page 4: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Four Kinds of Uncertainty
meters! 103 m! 105 m!
![Page 5: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Aircraft Kinematic State
http://www.lzcheng.com/_/rsrc/1368732445469/courseworks/kalmanfilter/Picture1.jpg
![Page 6: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
State-‐based Prediction
![Page 7: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Leg Adherence
Image courtesy of Claude Le Tallec, Onera
![Page 8: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Flight-‐Intent Adherence
![Page 9: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Flight-‐Intent Availability
Plan Brief File Share?
http://www.visualsoft.co.uk/ecommerce-‐blog/wp-‐content/uploads/2011/05/share-‐button1.jpg
![Page 10: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Prevailing Uncertainties
10 seconds! 102 seconds! 103 seconds!
![Page 11: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Flight-‐Intent Replacement
![Page 12: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Mining GA Typical Paths
Kernel Density Estimation of Airspace Occupancy from GNSS traces flown between LFPZ and LFPD
![Page 13: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Mining GA Typical Paths
A turning-‐point analysis enables paths classification
![Page 14: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
System Overview
![Page 15: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Experiments
Image courtesy of Hans Brandts, NLR
![Page 16: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Experiments
![Page 17: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Experiments
![Page 18: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Experiments
![Page 19: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Experiments
![Page 20: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Experiments
![Page 21: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Conclusions
• Aircraft state + flight intent = intent-‐based prediction
• Preliminary testing suggests approach is valuable
• How to fruitfully visualise long-‐term predictions?
• May the data-‐driven approach alone define an exhaustive description of typical GA paths?
![Page 22: Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& · Traffic&Predictions& Supporting&General&Aviation& Carlo&Lancia,&D.&Taurino,&G.&Frau,&& J.&Verstraeten,&and&C.&Le&Tallec&](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022040308/5edade6b09ac2c67fa687072/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Traffic Predictions Supporting General Aviation
Carlo Lancia, D. Taurino, G. Frau, J. Verstraeten, and C. Le Tallec