Traditional Energy:Fossil, Nuclear and Hydro

Energy Consumption by Source (USA)EIA – Energy Information Agency (US government agency)

Age of wood Age of coal Age of

hydrocarbons

Global Energy Consumption

Solar and wind are still insignificant

Global ElectricityIEA 2013 Key Statistics

Coal is #1, oil is out, natural gas is in, other than hydro, renewables still small.

BP (British Petroleum) Outlook

Oil, gas, coal will dominate for decades to come.Even new energy is dominated by fossil fuels

Petroleum

The largest source of primary energyVery high energy densityExtremely portableGlobal market90% of the transportation in the USA# 1 geopolitical commodityAnnual World consumption ~ 1 mile cubeUse to make plasticsRoads - asphalt

2C8H18(l) + 25O2(g) → 16CO2(g) + 18H2O(g) ΔH = −5.51 MJ/mol of octaneEnergy density ~ 40 MJ/kg

Petroleum more facts

Key world exporters areMiddle east AfricaRussiaNorwaySouth America

Oil is often a curse rather than blessing for a country, leads to political and economic instabilities (wars in middle east, collapse of Soviet Union, good and

bad time for president Putin)

Global Oil: China vs. USA

USA moves towards self sufficiency via decreasing demand and increasing production. China does the opposite. My bet is on the USA.

Peak OilThe rate of resource extraction increases,

peaks, and declines, assuming finite amount of resource.

M. King Hubbard predicted in 1950 that US production will peak ~ 1970 – he was ridiculed, but he

was right

Alaska

Shale oil

Production Cost per Barrel

When marginal cost of oil production meets a price that a marginal consumer is able to pay, the price and production values are set

Capital Expenditure (Capex problem)

Oil production has faltered, even as capex has soared

Capex productivity has fallen by a factor of five since 2000

Oil majors are burning cash, taking debt and selling assets

Currently (2014) shale gas companies spend ~ $1.5 per each $1.0 of revenues

Export Land ModelWhen a country oil production peaks and the consumption continue to

increase export declines very rapidly

Natural Gas

The fastest growing fossil fuel

Natural Gas

US will be a major liquefied gas exporter

Coal

40% of the world’s electricity needs. The second source of primary energy60% growth from 2000 to 2012From 2005 to 2015 China installed 150 MW

dailyEnergy density – 24 MJ/kg – 6.7 kW-h/kg, 325

kg to light 100 W bulb for a year. Efficiency of the electric plant – up to 40%

(30% average)China ~ 50% of the World production# one polluter (air, waste), use of water, landLignite (brown coal) is even worst, but widely

used in Europe (Germany, Poland)

Co-generation

Up to 80% efficiency. Requires heating from a central plant of

thousands of households No compatible with suburbiaFinland 80% of electricity with co-generation

Can anything useful can be done with waste heat generated by the RPI supercomputer?

CO2 Emission

We are cooked (for sure our children are cooked)

Clean Coal

Clean coal is a propaganda – not economically viable

Coal sequestration requires power: -fired power plant would have to burn roughly 25 percent more coal to handle carbon sequestration while producing the same amount of electricity.

The harder challenge is to transport and to bury all of this high-pressure CO2. Collectively, America's coal-fired power plants generate 1.5 billion tons CO2 per year. Capturing this means filling 30 million barrels with liquid CO2 every single day--about one and a half times the volume of crude oil the country consumes. Serious plans to engineer--much less finance--such a vast project aren't even on the table.

Nuclear

Increase in China – otherwise decline

Coal and nuclear electric power vs. energy

Nuclear and coal run at high utilization ratios, gas is for intermittence – energy storage make sense even for traditional energy mix

Michiganscheduled March 23, 2015 from 2:15 PM to 3:30 PM

Hydro

By far #1 renewable energy source~ 10% or electricityIn Canada ~ 65%

Limited by available resource requires large bodies of flowing water and have major

environmental impact

90% efficient

Also # 1 large scale energy storage

Larges Hydro Plants

Traditional Energy Summary

• This is what runs the World• It is generally cheap when environmental costs are not

accounted for• There are severe environmental impacts, most importantly air

and water pollution• Hydro is mostly max out • Nuclear energy is perhaps the most environment friendly but

politics fueled by few spectacular failures limits the potential – future might be different

• Liquid fuels production rates appear to be close to the peak