Trade-related policy developments and global food security · Adverse global welfare & trade...
Transcript of Trade-related policy developments and global food security · Adverse global welfare & trade...
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Trade-related policy developmentsand global food security
Kym AndersonUniversity of Adelaide and Australian National University
ABARES Outlook Conference, Canberra, 7-8 March 2017
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Key question
Can we feed 8.5 billion people in 2030 (of which 3.2 billion will be middle-income Asians demanding higher-protein diets) …
… and at the same time reduce malnutrition and eliminate hunger globally?
including among developing country farmers, who are >1/4th of the world’s workforce, and 2/3rdsof the world’s extreme poor
[World Bank, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016, October]
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Number of undernourished people not yet declining in SSAfrica and South Asia (millions)
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Africa south of the SaharaSouth AsiaDeveloping Countries
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Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?
Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture
Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact
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Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?
Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture
Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact
Meanwhile:• public investments in ag R&D has been falling as % of ag GDP (globally, from
0.9% in 2000 to 0.75% in 2011), and
• climate change is reducing global ag. land productivity
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Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?
Requires increased productivity of resources employed in agriculture
Investing more in agricultural research can boost farm productivity, but takes decades to have full impact
Meanwhile:• public investments in ag R&D has been falling as % of ag GDP (globally, from
0.9% in 2000 to 0.75% in 2011), and• climate change is reducing global ag. land productivity
A more-immediate way to enhance food security and nutrition is to reform ag. trade-distorting policies
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How did previous societies avoid Mathus’ problem?
Britain’s David Ricardo famously explained, exactly two centuries ago (in 1817), how nations can gain from trading with other nations by exploiting their comparative advantage
which Britain embraced by repealing its Corn Laws in 1846, and re-opening trade with France from 1860
• which in turn led to other countries in Western Europe also reducing their agricultural protectionism
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Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…
Distant past
Recent past
Future
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Distant past: role of int’l trade
For agriculture’s first 10,000 years, trade was not in final farm products, but rather in agric. inputs:
seeds/cuttings domesticated breeding animals (& their diseases!)knowledge/production technologies
Prohibitive costs of trading final farm productslow value per ton relative to shipping & spoilage costs, until trade costs fell from mid-19th century
• Steam engine, led to railways and steamships• Steel hulls for ships on high seas• Refrigeration for ocean transport (late 19th century)• Telegraph also lowered trade costs
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Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices
Initially imports of fibres for Britain’s mechanizing textile industry
cotton, esp. from USA, & wool, esp. from Aust• During 1788-1860, international terms of trade of “periphery”
countries grew at 1.5%/year
Then also food imports for urbanizing population
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Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices
Initially imports of fibres for Britain’s mechanizing textile industry
cotton, esp. from US & wool, esp. from Aust• During 1788-1860, international terms of trade of “periphery”
countries grew at 1.5%/year
Then also food imports for urbanizing population=> improved international terms of trade for primary-exporting countries • UK growth lowered int’l prices of manufactures and
boosted import demand for primary products
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19th century inter-continental trade and globalization
Agric & non-agric trade both grew at 3.5%/year during 1850-1913
(& both fell 0.8%/year during 1925-38)
=> agric was still half of global trade in 1938 (
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Boom in primary product prices in 19th century (1796-1913), decline in Britain’s terms of trade (to late 1850s)
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Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…
Distant past
Recent past
Future
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Real int’l prices of farm products since 1920
Reversal of 1790-1920 upward trend: real agric prices declined at 0.7%/year in 20th century
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Real int’l agric prices, 1900-2000(Source: World Bank, 1977-79 = 100)
y = -0.60x + 134R² = 0.41
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Food
y = -0.98x + 167R² = 0.63
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Non-food agric
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Real int’l prices of farm products declined in 20th century for 2 reasons
1. New agricultural technologies ensured supplies expanded faster than global demand
2. Agricultural protection growth in high-income countries put extra downward pressure on real int’l agric prices through to 1980s
• … although offset somewhat by anti-agricultural policy bias in developing countries
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Trade policy impact on real international prices of farm products
Agric protection growth in high-income countries & anti-agric policy bias in developing countries had 3 impacts in 20th century:
• shrunk agriculture’s share of global trade,
• slowed rise in share of agric output exported,
• ‘thinned’ int’l food markets and so made international food prices more volatile
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Chart1
1913
1929
1937
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Agric share of all goods trade (%)
Agric share of all global goods trade (%)
50
50
50
40
24
16
12
9
7
7
StatisticalData (1)
countriescountry codesitemitem codeselementelement codes196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
World + (Total)5000Agricult.Products,Total + (Total)1882Export Value (1000 $)592232113959334173153673340640020686409037744295953843118147439173864667077551938905559256476640429896234179118984947123932962133153693152962817172732848204225772233823677233146989213088165208826567220945685208668766228989412252645702286523104302044565325576226328668137357345131338738928388457665442904898465542176457577331437733309417165058410983435414355943442672302525226365607329843653300431721260298873337909106303682395022422010800365461313940192
World + (Total)5000Total Merchandise Trade10Export Value (1000 $)5922135309613142112769154674857173302536188345318205797598217032216241797083275187094315431609351278038413564402578028444849207197882173140998054236113393555213086801501653055007201884397619904460551862622998182567606219261120511956852896214824500125090914372863193022308311385334943115393499256430375244304737489903014276976050511469485053423932655540219114546737364556675203376404720976612382930964419280307517872848910541910410370825126119351633831398308924216144951244125335602101526897420418302356997
Sheet1
Agric share of all goods trade (%)
191350
192950
193750
195140
196124
197116
198112
19919
20017
20117
Sheet1
Agric share of all goods trade (%)
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Key agric policy features, 1960 to mid-1980sHigh-income countries (HICs) used variable import restrictions and export subsidies to:
protect & insulate farmers from int’l food marketsDeveloping countries (DCs) used variable agric. export restrictions plus overvalued exchange rates and manuf. import tariffs to:
boost industrialization, and placate urban demand for lower & stable food prices
Both slowed agriculture’s globalization, and both lowered farm incomes in DCs
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Farm policy reforms since mid-1980s
Reduction in farm supports in many HICs
… as captured by estimates of Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) to farmers
• NRA = % by which price of a farm product in domestic market exceeds that in int’l market
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Ups & downs of agric NRAs for HICs
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Farm policy reforms since mid-1980s
In DCs, reduction in agric. export taxation
… & lowering of protection of their manufacturers
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Agric NRAs for DCs (%)
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Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) to DC farmers: from negative to slightly positive
25
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Australia’s RRA: very similar to DCs’ (%)
26
Chart1
1904190419041904
1905190519051905
1906190619061906
1907190719071907
1908190819081908
1909190919091909
1910191019101910
1911191119111911
1912191219121912
1913191319131913
1914191419141914
1915191519151915
1916191619161916
1917191719171917
1918191819181918
1919191919191919
1920192019201920
1921192119211921
1922192219221922
1923192319231923
1924192419241924
1925192519251925
1926192619261926
1927192719271927
1928192819281928
1929192919291929
1930193019301930
1931193119311931
1932193219321932
1933193319331933
1934193419341934
1935193519351935
1936193619361936
1937193719371937
1938193819381938
1939193919391939
1940194019401940
1941194119411941
1942194219421942
1943194319431943
1944194419441944
1945194519451945
1946194619461946
1947194719471947
1948194819481948
1949194919491949
1950195019501950
1951195119511951
1952195219521952
1953195319531953
1954195419541954
1955195519551955
1956195619561956
1957195719571957
1958195819581958
1959195919591959
1960196019601960
1961196119611961
1962196219621962
1963196319631963
1964196419641964
1965196519651965
1966196619661966
1967196719671967
1968196819681968
1969196919691969
1970197019701970
1971197119711971
1972197219721972
1973197319731973
1974197419741974
1975197519751975
1976197619761976
1977197719771977
1978197819781978
1979197919791979
1980198019801980
1981198119811981
1982198219821982
1983198319831983
1984198419841984
1985198519851985
1986198619861986
1987198719871987
1988198819881988
1989198919891989
1990199019901990
1991199119911991
1992199219921992
1993199319931993
1994199419941994
1995199519951995
1996199619961996
1997199719971997
1998199819981998
1999199919991999
2000200020002000
2001200120012001
2002200220022002
2003200320032003
2004200420042004
2005200520052005
2006200620062006
2007200720072007
2008200820082008
2009200920092009
2010201020102010
2011201120112011
2012201220122012
2013201320132013
2014201420142014
2015201520152015
NRA agric
NRA manuf
NRA prim
RRA
32.6
4.7233431288
-21.0231198123
31.7
8.5274291546
-17.5949664733
30.8
5.1177450578
-19.6347514849
29.4
4.9688232337
-18.8803529879
28.8
6.13134993
-17.5998835947
33.7
6.1846895929
-20.579888113
33.5
7.4493236633
-19.5136152335
33.3
7.1290679964
-19.6331072795
31.5
7.4759179473
-18.2692639184
30.6
6.1128840127
-18.7497059627
30.9
4.9251510498
-19.8432765089
31.6
3.8964800347
-21.0513069645
28.1
4.3649371394
-18.5285424361
27.5
4.1351305643
-18.3253877927
22.8
5.1384272299
-14.3823882493
21.8
3.9180560962
-14.6813989358
24.8
4.1677592382
-16.5322442002
23.5
2.7006059025
-16.8416146539
29.4
3.4357006309
-20.065146344
28.2
3.4297242352
-19.3215879601
28.4
4.8741071916
-18.322346424
30
3.4434648442
-20.428103966
32.2
3.9512689641
-21.3681777881
33.4
4.1399873374
-21.9340424757
35
4.4764055876
-22.6100699351
36.2
4.2730291059
-23.4412414788
43.2
6.3851570151
-25.7086892353
52.2
6.0167710451
-30.3437772371
63.4
7.5392069922
-34.1865318285
57.2
6.9995639279
-31.9341196388
56
5.6255029256
-32.2913442785
50.8
7.8220076005
-28.4999949599
48.6
5.1813672463
-29.2184608033
47.9
3.6846913403
-29.895408154
43
2.5385975339
-28.2946870392
48.9
4.908578396
-29.5442724003
46.5
3.6182387495
-29.2708267921
53.2
3.3748953159
-32.5229142847
41.7
4.1285438109
-26.5147891243
45.6
5.303308561
-27.6762990652
46
8.3312479556
-25.8005150989
48.2
9.8936768009
-25.8477214569
41.4
6.4339707695
-24.7284506581
41.3
-11.0046317062
-37.0167244913
29.7
-3.3578796055
-25.4879565193
27
-3.3145043416
-23.869688458
26.2
-3.3277916994
-23.3976162436
24.5
-1.7930254759
-21.1188959646
23
-0.4819263169
-19.0909970056
33.9
2.8043409889
-23.2230463115
26.3
4.353517825
-17.3764704473
22.9
5.0231144499
-14.5458792108
22
4.4629543592
-14.3746275744
21.9
6.3557461047
-12.7516438846
19.8
8.1306963842
-9.7406541033
21.7
5.6541384494
-13.1847670917
21.2
7.0480852181
-11.6764973448
20
8.6759340306
-9.4367216412
22.1
8.3229306762
-11.2834310596
22
7.6882472406
-11.7309448848
22.3
5.438292349
-13.7871689705
22.9
6.567408323
-13.2893341554
22
7.1880049439
-12.1409795542
22.4
6.7578429462
-12.7795400766
22.8
10.4183970045
-10.0827385957
24
9.4890080733
-11.7024128441
23
8.3279150505
-11.9285243491
23
10.917052044
-9.8235349236
22
7.3922608283
-11.9735566981
22
4.9729025528
-13.9566372518
17
4.0663660803
-11.0543879655
15
2.290016328
-11.0521597148
16
2.6005191066
-11.5512766323
15
3.0918004998
-10.3549560871
15
3.9641242402
-9.5964137042
15
2.2670374745
-11.0721413265
15
1.6299773234
-11.6261066753
15
2.0501039231
-11.2607791973
16
1.9226476009
-12.1356486199
16
2.9041654355
-11.2895125556
13
1.9872651552
-9.7457830485
13
1.7738067303
-9.9346843095
12
1.8104821003
-9.097783839
12
3.3378046505
-7.7341029906
11
2.4950868816
-7.6620838905
10
2.0445298334
-7.232245606
9
1.7411594043
-6.659486785
9
2.5911093866
-5.8797161591
8
1.815964647
-5.7259586602
7
1.6265427133
-5.0219226978
6
1.670639989
-4.0843018972
5
1.584589839
-3.2527715819
5
1.5200304797
-3.314256686
4
1.5679444283
-2.3385149728
3
1.2134154711
-1.7345480863
3
1.1074259774
-1.8374505074
3
0.8468161177
-2.0904697886
2.0112269774
0.4106448719
-1.5690254425
1.9963974856
0.4490458851
-1.5170649538
2.0027787024
0.3878566301
-1.5832138034
2.0223251693
0.4343688685
-1.5564792296
1.872
0.3649538508
-1.4793526673
1.872
0.2925761856
-1.5504003204
1.872
0.2377701822
-1.6041992087
1.872
0.4938044975
-1.3528697802
1.872
0.2014821419
-1.6398204199
1.8
0.2310397232
-1.5412183465
1.8
0.1972024989
-1.5744572703
1.9
0.2612098139
-1.608233745
1.9
0.2845190695
-1.5853591075
1.9
0.2845190695
-1.5853591075
1.9
0.2845190695
-1.5853591075
Fig 1 TOT
Gillitzer and Kearns (2005), updated for 2005-15 from ABS Cat No 5302.0
Figure 1: Int'l terms of trade (1967 = 100)
1871109
1872112
1873106
1874109
1875112
1876113
1877108
1878106
1879111
1880114
1881112
1882115
1883116
1884115
1885112
1886109
1887109
1888108
1889105
1890103
189199
189296
189393
189488
189587
189689
189787
189888
1899101
1900105
190194
1902101
1903111
1904112
1905118
1906116
1907115
1908111
1909111
1910111
1911107
1912107
1913109
1914107
1915109
1916107
1917106
191898
191985
192083
192171
192268
192397
1924132
1925154
1926112
1927112
1928125
1929117
193094
193171
193271
193375
193497
193582
1936101
1937118
193899
193982
194085
194176
194266
194362
194460
194565
194671
194787
1948103
1949115
1950117
1951171
1952107
1953116
1954121
1955110
195699
1957107
1958100
195989
1960100
196194
196295
196397
1964106
1965101
1966101
1967100
196897
196998
197099
197193
197293
1973112
1974118
1975105
1976100
197797
197888
197989
198092
198191
198290
198388
198491
198589
198681
198776
198883
198995
199095
199190
199287
199384
199481
199584
199687
199789
199888
199984
200087
200189
200290
200392
200499
2005108
2006120
2007128
2008136
2009146
2010140
2011169
2012170
2013153
2014148
2015132
Jun-20031.592
Jun-20047.499
Jun-20059.6108
Jun-200610.8120
Jun-20077.2128
Jun-20085.6136
Jun-20097.6146
Jun-2010-4.0140
Jun-201120.6169
Jun-20120.4170
Jun-2013-9.7153
Jun-2014-3.7148
Jun-2015-10.3132
Fig 1 TOT
Figure 1: Int'l terms of trade (1967 = 100)
Fig 2 RER
F15 REAL EXCHANGE RATE MEASURES
TitleReal trade-weighted indexReal import-weighted indexReal export-weighted indexReal G7 GDP-weighted index
DescriptionAustralian dollar trade-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar import-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar export-weighted exchange rate index, adjusted for relative consumer price levelsAustralian dollar exchange rate index against a GDP weighted average of the G7 currencies, adjusted for relative consumer price levels
FrequencyQuarterlyQuarterlyQuarterlyQuarterly
TypeOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-averageOriginal, quarter-average
UnitsIndex, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100Index, March 1995 = 100
Fig 2: Real exchange rate (March 1995 = 100)
SourceRBARBARBARBA
Publication date1-Aug-141-Aug-141-Aug-141-Aug-14
Series IDFRERTWIFRERIWIFREREWIFRERGWI
Jun-1970146140.72158.80
Sep-1970145139.94158.21
Dec-1970145140.19158.03
Mar-1971146141.04158.94
Jun-1971147141.63159.88
Sep-1971147141.45159.43
Dec-1971147142.20158.58
Mar-1972146141.01155.88
Jun-1972145139.98154.30
Sep-1972145140.01154.20
Dec-1972145140.43154.33
Mar-1973156151.64164.40
Jun-1973156151.98162.60
Sep-1973155150.87162.12
Dec-1973162158.69169.22
Mar-1974164161.19170.26
Jun-1974160157.78165.88
Sep-1974170166.69176.52
Dec-1974156151.97162.54
Mar-1975159154.48165.24
Jun-1975161156.67166.91
Sep-1975163158.75169.89
Dec-1975164160.06172.23
Mar-1976165160.99172.84
Jun-1976163159.40170.54
Sep-1976164160.35170.63
Dec-1976154150.56160.91
Mar-1977145141.32150.18
Jun-1977145142.58149.93
Sep-1977145142.51149.18
Dec-1977144141.47146.10
Mar-1978142139.63144.07
Jun-1978137135.73137.92
Sep-1978132131.68130.98
Dec-1978130129.06128.83
Mar-1979131129.09130.74
Jun-1979131128.95132.07
Sep-1979132130.14134.13
Dec-1979132129.07135.45
Mar-1980131128.43135.25123.48
Jun-1980132129.58134.96124.69
Sep-1980135132.59136.71127.43
Dec-1980136133.92136.35128.69
Mar-1981137136.52138.16131.00
Jun-1981139138.12140.91132.18
Sep-1981144142.86146.94135.31
Dec-1981142140.35143.95133.05
Mar-1982140138.41143.09131.19
Jun-1982139137.08142.49129.63
Sep-1982136134.14140.58126.63
Dec-1982135132.96138.94125.05
Mar-1983132130.37135.09123.12
Jun-1983126124.08129.04116.85
Sep-1983130128.34133.55119.83
Dec-1983134132.98137.46123.58
Mar-1984137136.49140.98126.40
Jun-1984134133.00137.25123.74
Sep-1984130128.67134.65119.12
Dec-1984133131.71137.80121.35
Mar-1985123122.04128.28113.08
Jun-1985109107.65113.23101.51
Sep-1985113111.29116.65104.72
Dec-1985106104.75109.44100.13
Mar-1986106104.49109.1899.77
Jun-1986105103.39107.3999.55
Sep-19869189.2193.1987.35
Dec-19869694.1099.0191.35
Mar-19879895.73100.8293.20
Jun-198710299.49103.9597.50
Sep-1987104101.37106.0599.16
Dec-19879996.81100.9495.94
Mar-198810097.76101.4096.33
Jun-1988108105.71109.08103.99
Sep-1988116113.90117.14111.05
Dec-1988118116.65119.49113.90
Mar-1989121119.70122.48116.72
Jun-1989115113.11115.89110.78
Sep-1989115112.89116.08110.37
Dec-1989118115.58119.28112.35
Mar-1990117114.15119.33110.98
Jun-1990119115.67121.64111.86
Sep-1990121117.94124.08114.29
Dec-1990113110.96115.89107.58
Mar-1991114111.53116.80107.90
Jun-1991117114.40119.30111.53
Sep-1991119116.31121.09113.36
Dec-1991116113.15117.83109.79
Mar-1992110108.16112.73104.95
Jun-1992111108.48113.20105.24
Sep-1992104101.55106.1298.07
Dec-199210199.54102.8596.80
Mar-199310199.67102.3797.28
Jun-19939897.2298.9195.47
Sep-19939493.9794.9292.80
Dec-19939594.0194.9793.20
Mar-1994102101.42102.2499.51
Jun-1994102101.49101.8899.91
Sep-1994101101.15101.3799.85
Dec-1994103102.48102.53101.70
Mar-1995100100.00100.00100.00
Jun-19959393.3092.1694.09
Sep-19959898.1097.8198.25
Dec-1995101100.49101.14100.57
Mar-1996103102.75103.53103.04
Jun-1996109108.03108.48108.79
Sep-1996108107.73108.75108.21
Dec-1996110109.23110.56109.80
Mar-1997111110.37111.85111.26
Jun-1997110109.47110.46110.32
Sep-1997107106.75108.22106.36
Dec-1997108104.80110.92100.50
Mar-1998111106.43117.1898.20
Jun-1998106100.78110.6393.33
Sep-199810297.23107.4889.20
Dec-19989994.97103.6989.09
Mar-199910197.50105.6890.98
Jun-1999106102.16110.4693.52
Sep-1999105101.64109.6292.79
Dec-199910399.40106.5090.77
Mar-200010299.25106.1090.18
Jun-20009794.48100.4485.87
Sep-20009794.03100.1684.75
Dec-20009289.2795.5180.53
Mar-20019490.1097.7181.81
Jun-20019389.4097.2280.33
Sep-20019389.2697.1880.44
Dec-20019489.6998.2380.69
Mar-20029792.44102.0382.73
Jun-200210195.87105.3985.93
Sep-20029792.94102.0384.59
Dec-200210095.00104.6986.32
Mar-200310498.93108.9390.21
Jun-2003111105.25116.2695.43
Sep-2003114108.54119.2697.58
Dec-2003120114.74125.67102.49
Mar-2004126120.48132.03107.36
Jun-2004120114.50125.40102.59
Sep-2004119113.53124.34101.99
Dec-2004124118.12129.27106.43
Mar-2005126120.43131.13108.57
Jun-2005126121.12131.35108.50
Sep-2005127122.13132.50108.54
Dec-2005127121.15132.14107.87
Mar-2006125119.85130.40107.56
Jun-2006125119.14130.65107.74
Sep-2006127120.72133.06108.99
Dec-2006128121.87134.37110.70
Mar-2007130123.76136.85112.84
Jun-2007136129.51143.18117.86
Sep-2007138131.20144.85119.22
Dec-2007142134.95149.21123.33
Mar-2008142134.49149.07124.81
Jun-2008147138.12154.98129.46
Sep-2008142133.35150.39125.48
Dec-2008114107.16120.26102.17
Mar-2009115108.78121.82102.13
Jun-2009129121.97136.50113.00
Sep-2009138130.69145.88120.21
Dec-2009148139.78155.21127.98
Mar-2010149141.84156.05128.76
Jun-2010147140.56154.12127.34
Sep-2010148141.52154.56128.32
Dec-2010157149.57163.22136.48
Mar-2011159151.56165.14138.49
Jun-2011165156.48171.44144.43
Sep-2011161153.47167.36142.25
Dec-2011159151.46164.83138.92
Mar-2012165157.81171.49143.88
Jun-2012160152.49166.34139.45
Sep-2012165157.86171.43142.51
Dec-2012164155.69169.92143.13
Mar-2013167157.45174.25146.45
Jun-2013162152.15169.63143.14
Sep-2013151142.23158.56134.98
Dec-2013153143.30160.08136.67
Mar-2014149139.71156.28133.93
Jun-2014154144.96162.22137.69
Sep-2014154
Dec-2014147
Mar-2015140
Jun-2015139
Sep-2015133
Dec-2015133
Mar-2016134
Jun-2016136
Fig 2 RER
FRERTWI
Fig 3 RRA
Figure 3: Relative rate of assistance
NRA agricNRA manufNRA primRRARRA manuf
19046.5335-2127
190511.6329-1821
19066.8315-2024
19076.7295-1923
19088.0296-1821
19097.8346-2126
19109.2347-2024
19118.8337-2024
19129.3327-1822
19137.6316-1923
19146.0315-2025
19154.8324-2127
19165.1284-1923
19174.9284-1822
19186.2235-1417
19194.5224-1517
19204.7254-1720
19213.1243-1720
19224.1293-2025
19233.9283-1924
19245.6285-1822
19254.0303-2026
19264.6324-2127
19274.8334-2228
19285.2354-2329
19294.9364-2331
19307.4436-2635
19317.1526-3044
19328.7638-3452
19338.1577-3247
19346.4566-3248
19359.1518-2840
19366.0495-2941
19374.2484-3043
19383.0433-2839
19395.9495-3042
19404.3474-2941
19414.1533-3348
19424.9424-2736
19436.1465-2838
19449.5468-2635
194511.44810-2635
19467.4416-2533
1947-12.541-11-3759
1948-3.830-3-2534
1949-3.727-3-2431
1950-3.626-3-2331
1951-1.925-2-2127
1952-0.623-0-1924
19533.1343-2330
19544.9264-1721
19555.8235-1517
19565.2224-1417
19577.2226-1315
19589.4208-1011
19596.4226-1315
19608.1217-1213
196110.0209-910
19629.6228-1113
19638.7228-1213
19646.2225-1416
19657.6237-1315
19668.7227-1214
19678.1227-1315
196813.42310-1011
196912.0249-1213
197012.2238-1214
197116.72311-1011
197211.4227-1214
19737.2225-1416
19745.7174-1112
19753.7152-1112
19764.4163-1213
19775.4153-1012
19787.3154-1011
19794.2152-1112
19803.2152-1213
19814.5152-1113
19824.3162-1214
19838.1163-1113
19844.7132-1011
19854.4132-1011
19864.8122-910
19877.7123-88
19885.4112-88
19893.9102-78
19903.692-77
19916.593-66
19924.682-66
19933.972-55
19943.862-44
19953.852-33
19963.652-33
19973.742-22
19983.031-22
19992.631-22
20002.031-22
20011.020-22
20021.020-22
20031.020-22
20041.020-22
20051.020-12
20061.020-22
20071.020-22
20082.020-11
20091.020-22
20101.020-22
20111.020-22
20121.320-22
20131.320-22
201420-2
201520-2
Fig 3 RRA
NRA agric
NRA manuf
NRA prim
RRA
Fig 4 Ag & Man %
Fig 4b Ag share of GDP (%)
197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Australia778976657766455545553344344333443333232222232
Canada444555444444433343333333333332222222222222222
US222333222222212222122111111111111111111111111
W. Europe545544433333333332232222222222222111111111111
Japan655655554433333333222222222222211111111111111
Manuf share of GDP (%)
197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Australia24232221212020191919191817171717161615151414141414141314131312121212111110109988777
Canada222222222120191920201918161718181818191817161516171818181819191818171615141311111111111111
US242323232221222222222120191919191818191818171717171716161615151413131313131312121212121212
W. Europe292828282826262626252524242323242423232323222220202019202019191919181818181817161717171717
Japan343332333128292828272726262627272625262526252523222222222121212019202020202020182019191919
24222429346
23222328335
22222328325
21222328336
21212228315
20202126285
20192226295
19192226285
19202226284
19202225274
19192125273
18182024263
17161924263
17171923263
17181923273
17181924273
16181824263
16181823253
15191923262
15181823252
14171823262
14161722252
14151722252
14161720232
14171720222
14181720222
13181619222
14181620222
13181620212
13191519212
12191519212
12181419201
12181319191
12171318201
11161318201
11151318201
10141318201
10131318201
9111217201
9111216181
8111217201
8111217191
7111217191
7111217191
7111217191
Fig 4 Ag & Man %
Australia
Canada
US
W. Europe
Japan
Fig 5 Sector % GDP
Australia
Canada
US
W. Europe
Japan
Fig 6 ag
Australia
Canada
US
W. Europe
Japan
Fig 7 agmin pr
Butlin Dixon and Lloyd (2014), updated for 2011-15 from ABS Cat No 5204.0
Sectoral shares of GDP/GNP (Current Prices) %
AgricultureMiningManufacturingAgri+miningAgri+mining+manufOtherAgricultureMiningManufacturingAgricultureMiningManufacturing
1800310331346618009208183590010
180130033033671801920818369109
1802460146475318029802183789011
18034407445149180387013183884016
1804370237396118049406183983017
1805470247485218059703184078022
1806460046465418069901184184016
1807490349514918079505184282018
1808450245475318089505184385015
1809470247495118099604184483017
1810610561663418109307184584116
1811580258604018119703184680416
1812560256584218129604184778418
1813550255574318139703184873621
1814520452564418149307184973422
1815560456604018159307185073621
181648064854461816890111851681022
18174904495347181793071852266113
181851055156441818900101853305317AgricultureMiningManuf.Services
181954035456441819950518543741221835570637
182054035457431820950518554441151836550540
182156045660401821930718564143151837480646
182255055559411822920818574138211838430849
182352055257431823920818584434221839430948
1824500550554518249109185946332118404301244
182549054954461825910918604531241841430849
182649054954461826910918615038121842380853
1827450545505018279001018625237111843360657
182847044751491828920818635435121844340759
1829440544495118298901118645732111845350758
1830430743505018308601418655930111846362756
1831420642485218318701318665826161847362953
18324007404753183284016186761241518483531053
18334208425050183384016186855271818493321055
18345007505743183488012186958241818503531052
18355706576337183590010187061191918513351151
1836550555604018369109187154262018521636741
18374806485446183789011187260211918531628948
183843084351491838840161873611820185417191054
18394309435248183983017187462182018552322847
184043012435644184078022187564162018562223846
184143084351491841840161876621523185724221242
184238083847531842820181877591427185825201243
184336063643571843850151878641324185925181246
184434073441591844830171879641324186024171347
18453507364258184584116188065122318612015560
18463627374456184680416188161122618622216558
18473629384753184778418188260122818632214559
184835310384753184873621188363102718642514557
184933210354555184973422188457123218652412559
185035310374852185073621188558113118662511756
1851335113849511851681022188657113118672811754
1852163675259411852266113188761112818682312857
1853162894452481853305317188863102718692511857
1854171910364654185437412218896013281870279956
1855232284553471855444115189059132818712412955
1856222384554461856414315189161132618722710955
1857242212455842185741382118925716271873288955
1858252012455743185844342218935817261874288955
1859251812435446185946332118945619251875298954
18602417134053471860453124189557162618762771056
1861201553540601861503812189654162918772461160
1862221653842581862523711189749213018782861056
1863221453741591863543512189850212918792751057
1864251453843571864573211189946252918802851057
1865241253641591865593011190047242918812551160
1866251173744561866582616190146252918822451159
1867281173946541867612415190247232918832541159
1868231283543571868552718190348252718842141263
1869251183643571869582418190459192118852241262
187027993544561870611919190558202218862141164
1871241293645551871542620190658192318872341162
1872271093645551872602119190760182318882641159
187328893645551873611820190857182518892351062
187428893645551874621820190958152718902351162
187529893746541875641620191062122618912551060
1876277103444561876621523191158132918922361159
1877246113040601877591427191254143218932571157
1878286103344561878641324191353143318942481157
1879275103343571879641324191457123118952881352
1880285103343571880651223191547134018962371358
1881255113040601881611226191658113118972291356
1882245112941591882601228191765102518982081260
1883254113041591883631027191865925189920111356
1884214122537631884571232191964828190021111356
1885224122638621885581131192062830190119101258
188621411253664188657113119216662919021991261
1887234112838621887611128192259635190320101159
188826411304159188863102719235763719042991051
1889235102738621889601328192457737190528101151
189023511283862189059132819256353219062891151
189125510304060189161132619265763719073091249
189223611304159189257162719275563919082881252
189325711324357189358172619285354219092771353
189424811324357189456192519295354219103061252
189528813354852189557162619305054519112761354
189623713304358189654162919315354119122361456
189722913314456189749213019325753819132361457
189820812294060189850212919335653819142451358
1899201113314456189946252919345963519151851562
1900211113314456190047242919355563919162551456
1901191012304258190146252919365573819173151253
190219912283961190247232919375673719183141252
1903201011304159190348252719385473919192841257
190429910384951190459192119394784519202431162
1905281011384951190558202219404994219212821257
190628911374951190658192319414394819222321460
190730912395149190760182319424285019232321461
190828812364852190857182519434474919242331560
190927713344753190958152719444564919252621358
191030612354852191062122619454375019262321561
191127613324654191158132919464564819272131561
191223614294456191254143219474365119282021661
191323614294357191353143319484764719292121760
191424513294258191457123119494255319302021860
191518515233862191547134019504744919312121662
191625514304456191658113119515344319322321659
191731512354753191765102519523955619332321658
19183141236485219186592519534345219342621656
19192841231435719196482819543945719352231659
19202431127386219206283019553556019362431657
19212821231435719216662919563456119372531656
19222321426406019225963519573656019382331757
19232321425396119235763719582946619392031958
19242331525406019245773719593246419402442051
19252621329425819256353219603046619412042253
19262321525396119265763719613046619422042452
19272131524396119275563919622946719432132452
19282021623396119285354219632946719442232451
19292121723406019295354219643146519452032453
19302021822406019305054519652946719462032156
19312121623386219315354119662557019472232648
19322321625415919325753819672856719482632644
19332321626425819335653819682267319492122650
19342621628445619345963519692467019502422548
19352231625415919355563919702197119512922445
19362431626435719365573819711797319521922751
193725316284456193756737197218107219532122651
193823317264357193854739197321106919541922752
193920319234258193947845197424106619551622853
19402442051194049942197519126919561622854
19412042253194143948197617156919571722854
19422042452194242850197716156819581322956
19432132452194344749197815166919591422955
19442232451194445649197920176319601322956
19452032453194543750198020196119611322957
19462032156194645648198117206219621222858
19472232648194743651198216216319631122661
19482632644194847647198313236419641222561
194921226245050194942553198417236019651122661
19502422527524819504744919851623611966922663
195129224315545195153443198614246219671022563
19521922721495119523955619871520641968822565
19532122623495119534345219881719641969922565
19541922721485219543945719891816651970732565
19551622819475319553556019901718651971632467
19561622818465419563456119911523611972632467
19571722819465419573656019921523621973732367
19581322915445619582946619931622621974832267
19591422916455519593246419941621631975642169
19601322915445619603046619951421641976542170
19611322915435719613046619961622621977552070
19621222814425819622946719971622621978452071
19631122613396119632946719981522631979651969
19641222514396119643146519991621631980661969
19651122613396119652946720001622621981561969
1966922611376319662557020011825571982561970
19671022512376319672856720022025551983461872
1968822510356519682267320031625601984571871
1969922511356519692467020041722611985471771
1970732510356519702197120051627571986461773
197163249336719711797320061434521987451675
1972632493367197218107220071238511988451675
19737323103367197321106920081238501989441576
19748322113367197424106620091245431990441576
1975642193169197519126920101342461991451477
1976542193070197617156920111249391992351477
1977552093070197716156820121249391993451477
1978452092971197815166920131446401994451577
19796519113169197920176320141349381995351577
19806619123169198020196120151544411996451477
1981561912316919811720621997451478
1982561911307019821621631998351478
1983461810287219831323641999351379
1984571812297119841723602000351379
1985471711297119851623612001461278
1986461710277319861424622002451279
198745169257519871520642003351279
198845169257519881719642004351280
198944158247619891816652005361280
199044158247619901718652006371179
199145149237719911523612007281179
199235149237719921523622008381080
199345149237719931622622009310978
19944515923771994162163201028981
199535158237719951421642011310880
199645149237719961622622012210880
19974514822781997162262201338782
19983514822781998152263201429782
19993513821791999162163201537784
20003513821792000162262
20014612922782001182557
200245121022792002202555
20033512821792003162560
20043512820802004172261
20053612921802005162757
200637111022792006143452
200728111021792007123851
200838101021802008123850
200931091222782009124543
20102891019812010134246
201131081320802011124939
201221081220802012124939
20133871118822013144640
20142971118822014134938
20153771017842015154441
Jun-20072.47.710.1
Jun-20082.57.710.0
Jun-20092.59.89.1
Jun-20102.47.98.6
Jun-20112.510.07.9
Jun-20122.49.67.6
Jun-20132.58.27.1
Jun-20142.48.86.9
Jun-20152.57.26.8
Fig 7 agmin pr
Agriculture
Mining
Fig 8 TFP
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Fig 9a Wool and Gold Ex
Agriculture
Mining
Manuf.
Services
Fig 9b Exp %
Fig 6
Ag empltAg GDPMine empltMine GDP
1851203365
186132231816
187134241110
1881322476
1891272565
1901242489
1911242656
1921332534
1931242024
1951162022
1961121112
19718613
19817516
19916315
20015415
201133210
20153327
Fig 9b Exp %
1851185118511851
1861186118611861
1871187118711871
1881188118811881
1891189118911891
1901190119011901
1911191119111911
1921192119211921
1931193119311931
1951195119511951
1961196119611961
1971197119711971
1981198119811981
1991199119911991
2001200120012001
2011201120112011
2015201520152015
Ag emplt
Ag GDP
Mine emplt
Mine GDP
20
33.4564189386
6
5.0338607041
31.5
22.8404507546
18
16.4668628613
33.7
24.2146569951
11
9.8741135265
32.3
24.1810033286
7
5.6344614883
27.4
24.5421067066
6
5.4345780521
24.3
23.573210563
8
9.1840362252
24.4
26.2405401108
4.75
6.1363980788
32.9
25.4362386936
3
3.8242378854
23.9
20.2849593984
2.4
3.5992129188
16.3
19.8912059287
2
1.974669249
12
10.6086520412
1.4
1.5933498514
8.2
5.884430313
1.4
3.1078360432
7
5.2775308466
1.4
6.2731572023
5.6
3.2081152684
1.2
4.8169942361
4.7
3.5035801146
0.9
5.0283177713
3
2.5
1.8
10
3.3
2.5
1.9
7.2
Fig 10
Fig 7: Export price ratio
farm/mine
Jan-1985100
Feb-1985101
Mar-198599
Apr-198596
May-198594
Jun-198594
Jul-198590
Aug-198590
Sep-198591
Oct-198592
Nov-198594
Dec-198596
Jan-198693
Feb-198697
Mar-1986101
Apr-1986103
May-1986103
Jun-198692
Jul-198688
Aug-198685
Sep-198682
Oct-198687
Nov-198692
Dec-198692
Jan-198794
Feb-198796
Mar-198799
Apr-1987102
May-1987103
Jun-1987101
Jul-198798
Aug-1987103
Sep-1987105
Oct-1987106
Nov-1987109
Dec-1987111
Jan-1988117
Feb-1988125
Mar-1988122
Apr-1988122
May-1988119
Jun-1988121
Jul-1988135
Aug-1988128
Sep-1988130
Oct-1988134
Nov-1988129
Dec-1988126
Jan-1989128
Feb-1989130
Mar-1989131
Apr-1989128
May-1989124
Jun-1989127
Jul-1989128
Aug-1989127
Sep-1989130
Oct-1989130
Nov-1989132
Dec-1989133
Jan-1990132
Feb-1990127
Mar-1990125
Apr-1990128
May-1990125
Jun-1990118
Jul-1990110
Aug-1990102
Sep-199098
Oct-199096
Nov-199099
Dec-1990102
Jan-1991103
Feb-199192
Mar-199194
Apr-199195
May-1991102
Jun-1991104
Jul-1991103
Aug-1991102
Sep-1991103
Oct-1991103
Nov-1991106
Dec-1991109
Jan-1992110
Feb-1992113
Mar-1992112
Apr-1992110
May-1992108
Jun-1992107
Jul-1992102
Aug-1992101
Sep-1992103
Oct-1992104
Nov-1992102
Dec-1992102
Jan-1993105
Feb-1993103
Mar-1993102
Apr-1993107
May-1993107
Jun-1993106
Jul-1993106
Aug-1993106
Sep-1993108
Oct-1993109
Nov-1993110
Dec-1993112
Jan-1994113
Feb-1994115
Mar-1994118
Apr-1994119
May-1994119
Jun-1994117
Jul-1994114
Aug-1994118
Sep-1994121
Oct-1994118
Nov-1994120
Dec-1994121
Jan-1995118
Feb-1995122
Mar-1995123
Apr-1995116
May-1995116
Jun-1995116
Jul-1995112
Aug-1995111
Sep-1995111
Oct-1995111
Nov-1995111
Dec-1995110
Jan-1996108
Feb-1996107
Mar-1996106
Apr-1996107
May-1996110
Jun-1996109
Jul-1996107
Aug-1996107
Sep-1996104
Oct-1996103
Nov-1996100
Dec-199698
Jan-199799
Feb-1997102
Mar-1997108
Apr-1997111
May-1997109
Jun-1997108
Jul-1997108
Aug-1997109
Sep-1997109
Oct-1997108
Nov-1997110
Dec-1997110
Jan-1998107
Feb-1998105
Mar-1998107
Apr-1998102
May-1998105
Jun-1998103
Jul-1998103
Aug-1998101
Sep-199897
Oct-199897
Nov-1998101
Dec-1998103
Jan-1999102
Feb-1999101
Mar-1999101
Apr-1999104
May-1999106
Jun-1999108
Jul-1999107
Aug-1999109
Sep-1999105
Oct-199999
Nov-1999100
Dec-199996
Jan-200095
Feb-200095
Mar-200098
Apr-2000103
May-2000104
Jun-2000102
Jul-2000104
Aug-2000105
Sep-2000101
Oct-2000103
Nov-2000104
Dec-2000106
Jan-2001107
Feb-2001107
Mar-2001111
Apr-2001108
May-2001103
Jun-2001103
Jul-2001103
Aug-2001104
Sep-2001105
Oct-2001101
Nov-2001104
Dec-2001108
Jan-2002109
Feb-2002108
Mar-2002107
Apr-2002103
May-2002100
Jun-2002103
Jul-2002108
Aug-2002113
Sep-2002121
Oct-2002126
Nov-2002123
Dec-2002120
Jan-2003115
Feb-2003115
Mar-2003117
Apr-2003118
May-2003110
Jun-2003108
Jul-2003110
Aug-2003113
Sep-2003113
Oct-2003114
Nov-2003117
Dec-2003112
Jan-2004117
Feb-2004106
Mar-2004106
Apr-2004105
May-2004100
Jun-200499
Jul-200491
Aug-200487
Sep-200489
Oct-200484
Nov-200485
Dec-200488
Jan-200586
Feb-200583
Mar-200581
Apr-200570
May-200569
Jun-200565
Jul-200565
Aug-200562
Sep-200564
Oct-200565
Nov-200565
Dec-200564
Jan-200664
Feb-200667
Mar-200665
Apr-200662
May-200661
Jun-200661
Jul-200661
Aug-200659
Sep-200661
Oct-200664
Nov-200666
Dec-200665
Jan-200767
Feb-200765
Mar-200764
Apr-200760
May-200760
Jun-200764
Jul-200767
Aug-200771
Sep-200777
Oct-200777
Nov-200774
Dec-200779
Jan-200878
Feb-200880
Mar-200876
Apr-200863
May-200856
Jun-200854
Jul-200852
Aug-200851
Sep-200846
Oct-200841
Nov-200840
Dec-200843
Jan-200945
Feb-200945
Mar-200949
Apr-200955
May-200964
Jun-200961
Jul-200962
Aug-200960
Sep-200959
Oct-200960
Nov-200960
Dec-200960
Jan-201059
Feb-201058
Mar-201056
Apr-201048
May-201045
Jun-201043
Jul-201044
Aug-201048
Sep-201052
Oct-201055
Nov-201056
Dec-201058
Jan-201160
Feb-201162
Mar-201159
Apr-201155
May-201152
Jun-201149
Jul-201147
Aug-201147
Sep-201147
Oct-201147
Nov-201149
Dec-201149
Jan-201251
Feb-201251
Mar-201252
Apr-201251
May-201249
Jun-201250
Jul-201256
Aug-201257
Sep-201261
Oct-201263
Nov-201261
Dec-201261
Jan-201357
Feb-201356
Mar-201357
Apr-201357
May-201357
Jun-201359
Jul-201358
Aug-201357
Sep-201356
Oct-201359
Nov-201358
Dec-201356
Jan-201455
Feb-201457
Mar-201464
Apr-201465
May-201470
Jun-201471
Jul-201470
Aug-201469
Sep-201470
Oct-201473
Nov-201475
Dec-201478
Jan-201575
Feb-201575
Mar-201576
Apr-201585
May-201582
Jun-201581
Jul-201586
Aug-201584
Sep-201582
Oct-201585
Nov-201590
Dec-201598
Jan-201696
Feb-201691
Mar-201687
Apr-201683
May-201684
Jun-201691
Jul-201689
Aug-201682
Sep-201677
Fig 10
farm/mine
Fig 11 RCA
Fig 8: ag TFP growth contribution
Aust exports (A$ '000)
Fig 9(a)
WoolGoldOtherWoolGoldOther
182748072182740060
1828820101182845055
18291280126182950050
1830700222183024076
18311520779183116084
18321480936183214086
18332080888183319081
183442801157183427073
183588401510183537063
1836108301549183641059
1837108702082183734066
1838111502208183834066
1839128102984183930070
1840160203593184031069
1841164602766184137063
1842172702341184242058
1843186302006184348052
1844174201998184447053
1845253502169184554046
1846270702602184651049
1847317403139184750050
1848309803107184850050
1849312803118184950050
1850402003806185051049
18513958264024311851442927
18524258236141136185215814
185364822551545111853187012
1854671019294102511854195328
185563802386373891855176320
1856717825826106721856165924
1857717023992137671857165331
1858737422983114791858185527
1859857221309132761859204931
1860980020747111931860235027
186194001700084201861274924
1862100001860075401862285121
1863940019200100801863245026
1864122001720085601864324523
1865128001740092201865324423
18661360017200101601866334225
186714600142002560186747458
1868174001960061001868404514
1869144001980099401869334523
1870126001580092201870334225
18711800014200112601871413326
18721900014800112401872423325
18732200018000127401873423424
18742440014400125001874482824
18752420013200125601875482625
18762460010200122801876522226
1877244001340084201877532918
18782480011200115401878522424
1879238006000125601879561430
1880282008800175201880521632
18812640012800158601881482329
18822760010400166201882511930
1883336009800167201883561628
188433000460019820188457835
18852680010000165401885501931
1886252006000122001886581428
188730000360013240188764828
1888316009400168001888551629
1889348009800145001889591725
1890320008800178401890551530
18914040011400202801891561628
1892388008200197401892581230
1893334009600234601893501435
18943000011000232601894471736
18953120011000250801895461637
18963080012800223201896471934
18972680025800229601897353430
18982800027000253401898353432
18993540024000378001899362539
19002620027400383201900293042
190130 40027 000380001901322840
190225 40026 200310001902313238
190328 00034 200292001903313732
190434 20031 400446001904312840
190539 60019 000496001905371846
190645 20029 600578001906342244
190757 80018 800630001907411345
190845 80027 400510001908372241
190951 00015 600590001909411247
191057 6007 40078600191040555
191152 20020 800794001911341452
191252 80022 000772001912351451
191352 6004 40093200191335362
1915191538458
19161916371449
19171917301258
1918191831861
1919191940258
1920192035461
1921192127469
1922192239358
1923192350248
1924192448249
1925192540160
1926192643354
1927192742850
1928192848250
1929192944253
19301930302248
19311931311455
19321932301159
19331933311851
1934193447746
1935193536757
1936193639853
1937193739753
1938193831960
19391939311157
19401940341254
19411941261460
1942194235560
1943194336064
1944194432068
1945194533067
1946194636064
1947194742058
1948194837063
1949194943057
1950195051049
1951195165035
1952195249051
1953195348052
1954195451049
1955195546054
1956195644056
1957195749051
1958195846054
1959195937063
1960196042058
1961196135065
1962196234066
1963196335065
1964196435065
1965196531069
1966196630070
1967196727073
1968196824076
1969196925075
1970197019081
1971197113087
1972197212087
1973197319081
1974197417183
197519759191
1976197610189
1977197713087
1978197810090
1979197910189
198019808191
1981198110090
198219829090
198319839190
198419849290
198519858290
1986198610387
1987198711684
1988198814779
1989198913780
199019909884
199119916886
199219927885
199319935887
199419945986
199519956787
199619965888
199719975887
199819984887
199919993790
200020003592
200120013492
200220023493
200320033592
200420043691
200520052593
200620062594
200720072692
200820082792
200920091891
201020101792
201120111693
201220121693
201320131792
Wool
Gold
Other
Table A14: Value of g agricultural, mining, and all merchandise exports, 1901 to 2013 ($million)shares (%)
yearGoldWoolAll agriculturalAll miningAll merchandiseFarmingMiningOther goods
19012730523895190155405
19022625423883190251463
19033428414591190344506
190431346045110190455405
190519406834108190563326
190630457848133190659365
190719589242140190766304
190827467246124190858375
190916518831126190970255
191075811125144191078175
1911215210540152191169265
191222539945152191265305
191345311329150191375195
191434911525145191479174
19154448919116191576167
191620539342144191664297
1917235713147190191769256
1918134911132157191871209
1919486166242121919781111
19201110123430289192081109
19211168186272531921731116
192279619419248192278814
1923411419622230192385105
1924611219425232192483116
1925212726222318192583711
1926912624631291192685115
19272312023140284192781144
192861322372327419288695
192961232442127719298885
1930547316470245193067285
1931296415540204193176205
19322364150332121932711514
19334373150532371933632214
193416114183292421934751213
19351679160282211935721315
193621105194382671936731413
193724125234443171937741412
19382894219493071938711613
19393085182522711939671914
194040114205653341940612019
19414479188603091941611920
194218116199373341942601129
1943891527246194362335
1944921837285194464333
19459920211303194567430
194613927522385194671623
194725344537608194773621
194829763837802194880516
1949463878621075194982613
19506261042581217195086510
19511266173471194819518947
19526471072951326195281712
19538051407130169019538389
195482113421901622195483126
19557061242821520195582513
19566751205851537195678616
195796715051241954195777617
19587471205931610195875619
19596041215931612195975619
196077213971001860196075520
196166814211271884196175718
196274516601692165196277816
196375816711392158196377616
196496021771782764196479615
196580619612012605196575817
1966785188829326551966711118
1967807205431729541967701120
1968716188543129681968641522
1969796192555232421969591724
19707612164126839981970543214
1971205442184143042441971513415
1972205822515154547461972533314
19732511553443180960861973573014
19743511573644224668331974533314
1975467543972342086201975464014
1976509694437386995891976464013
197734147453414813115721977464212
197848118053595211121581978444313
197980142363575928142341979454214
1980113158788627400188691980473914
198156183386977480190181981463915
198294183583978289196621982434215
19832901883790410058212261983374715
19844002052897811524239681984374814
198560125521119414952301021985375013
1986113731111219816285324921986385012
1987204738621319417399364871987364816
1988310757061534119980419031988374816
1989302159561606521196441871989364816
1990376442981582924932489271990325117
1991413630861457328032525381991285319
1992460537471631428305554271992295119
1993458033341782929762606341993294922
1994552133271955129881644191994304623
1995490740922028530373671011995304525
1996585035002258134452761461996304525
1997687837392435336052809341997304525
1998722639592590540926885381998294625
1999641325792536238919857831999304525
2000516429502772344066976652000284526
20015229387633449570181203072001284725
20025300367835272559531210902002294625
20035719357530999548831159252003274726
20047031277529833534021094182004274924
20056472281131090683621278112005245322
20067371253231078859411540442006205624
200710738306031216992961696202007185923
2008122742798307551113261829252008176122
2009175102319349461586002316152009156816
2010143002302313091348032018052010166718
2011142593047355311748802470222011147115
2012166523124397731892012651092012157114
2013162392869411901731712490882013177014
2014440641941232738712014167113
2015469521720952559672015186714
Farming
Mining
Other goods
Fig 10: Shares of top two goods in exports
Aust: wool+goldNZ: wool+meatCanada: lumber+wheatChile: copper+saltBrazil: coffee+sugarUS: cotton+wheat
1850511318507246
1851732718517068
1852962518527053
1853882218536656
1854722218547152
1855802518557139
1856764618567052
185769481857447058
185873551858487353
185969611859426755
186073751860487474
186176381861606836
186279281862596223
186374241863575631
186477311864575728
186577281865555111
186675341866425391
186792341867485773
186886321868495164
186977311869655454
187075401870576165
187174331871435264
18727548391872456749
18737652441873396753
18747654491874457262
18757558401875487251
18767460441876547250
18778258391877557037
18787655511878617643
18797054371879537141
18806850411880706650
18817148391881756756
18827047351882717444
18837244451883707854
18846551351884877744
18856952321885697146
18867252341886697742
18877254361887726849
18887148341888665246
18897551281889687340
18907053311890726340
18917257301891635741
18927056341892616353
18936554351893677042
18946465341894757241
18956357271895796736
18966661261896726630
18977060281897745631
18986860351898655137
18996154271899725230
19005851261900796127
19016047231901786134
19026245281902805634
19036849321903825234
19046051271904855233
19055451221905754926
19065654371906835327
19075555231907845333
19085953381908795435
19095350401909805432
19104554411910694229
19114852391911746131
19124951401912816228
19133853411913786229
Aust: wool+gold
NZ: wool+meat
Canada: lumber+wheat
0
Chile: copper+salt
'Fig 10'!#REF!
Brazil: coffee+sugar
US: cotton+wheat
RCA
AgricMiningManuf
1960-642.70.80.2
1965-692.61.30.3
1970-742.32.00.3
1975-792.32.00.3
1980-842.42.10.3
1985-892.63.00.3
1990-942.43.30.4
1995-992.73.30.4
2000-042.83.30.4
2005-092.22.70.4
2010-141.62.90.3
20152.13.50.2
Agric
Mining
Manuf
-
Convergence of average NRAs close to zero hides much variance
-
Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…
Distant past
Recent past
Future: 10 quick questions
-
1. Is world nearly free of agric distortions now?
NO, because:
Still very w ide cross-country dispersion of NRAs within HIC and DC country groups
Still very w ide cross-product dispersion of NRAs within each country’s agric sector• including a persistent anti-trade bias
-
2. How close had world come to being free of goods trade distortions by 2004?
Adverse global welfare & trade effects of trade policies & agric subsidies were reduced by nearly 3/ 5ths between 1980-84 and 2004
• according to global modelling results, see Ch. 12 in Anderson, K. (ed.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective, 1955-2007. Palgrave Macmillan, 2009
-
3. How much more would agric prod’n be traded if all remaining trade distortions in 2004 were removed?
Global share of agric production exported would’ve been 5 percentage points higher
By 2007, that share was 11%, which is tiny compared with 42% for other primary goods & 31% for manufacturing
-
4. Would removal of remaining trade distortions reduce global poverty, & income inequality?
Answers: Yes, and yesAbout half of average DC’s national benefit would come from unilateral trade lib’n, the other half from rest-of-world’s liberalization
• Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty. World Bank, 2010
DC beneficiaries would be mainly poor farmers• Headey, D. (2016), “Food Prices and Poverty”, Policy Research
Working Paper No. 7898, World Bank, November (forthcoming in World Bank Economic Review)
https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=561341&partid=24677&did=321318&eid=1199806
-
5. Will continued economic growth in Asia starve rest of world?
No. It will boost imports of minerals & energy much more than food
& because of supply responses, int’l prices of primary products by 2030 (relative to manuf. prices) will be similar to today’s
• Anderson, K. and A. Strutt, ‘Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030’, Australian Journal of Agric. and Resource Economics, Oct 2014.
… as happened in 19th century with the first Industrial Revolution, which greatly benefitted countries exporting primary goods
-
6. To what extent will China, India, Indonesia, etc copy NEAsia’s agricultural protection path as incomes rise? (% RRAs, 1955-2011)
Chart1
8.04809842817.08961401017.1330480182
8.46851366157.1571653217.3014694525
8.88400150257.43129307367.6279435885
9.26796997797.8399616528.020907675
9.40490121158.22470995458.3533971636
9.55112275498.44429828328.6571773352
9.7080755098.8312431679.0109142322
9.86808298689.1990401669.3294000983
9.91392777289.47118048729.5881900841
9.93904781079.69660647339.7513246634
9.99093751489.90212049259.9594956286
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ln GDP per capita
Relative Rate of Assistance, %
42.5315
-32.61223
-22.52902
49.12257
-21.41977
-4.184336
56.15355
-4.803798
-4.521852
53.71568
30.50262
4.219575
83.827
53.8728
1.749005
81.2177
104.7858
12.93268
130.2477
147.666
28.02478
127.6331
195.0259
42.51504
132.424
165.7865
52.2317
132.7016
171.5852
91.240284
109.8533
122.0181
41.6457142857
RRA Chin, Ind, Jap, Kor, Taiw
ccoderraln_gdppc00
Japan1955-59438.0481
1960-64498.4685
1965-69568.8840
1970-74549.2680
1975-79849.4049
1980-84819.5511
1985-891309.7081
1990-941289.8681
1995-991329.9139
2000-041339.9390
2005-111109.9909
Korea1955-59-337.08961
1960-64-217.15717
1965-69-57.43129
1970-74317.83996
1975-79548.22471
1980-841058.44430
1985-891488.83124
1990-941959.19904
1995-991669.47118
2000-041729.69661
2005-111229.90212
Taiwan1955-59-237.133
1960-64-47.301
1965-69-57.628
1970-7448.021
1975-7928.353
1980-84138.657
1985-89289.011
1990-94439.329
1995-99529.588
2000-04919.751
2005-11429.959
ASEAN1970-74-287.4498
1975-79-197.5867
1980-84-147.7176
1985-89-167.7673
1990-94-148.0047
1995-99-88.1863
2000-0448.2571
2005-10-68.9044
RRA Chin, Ind, Jap, Kor, Taiw
Korea
Taiwan
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ln GDP per capita
Relative Rate of Assistance, %
RRA with other ASEAN
China
Korea
India
Japan
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ln GDP per capita
Relative Rate of Assistance, %
ccoderraln_gdppc00
China1980-84-617.087
1985-89-507.438
1990-94-317.672
1995-99-38.001
2000-0418.348
2005-1058.797
India1965-69-556.6822
1970-74-386.7462
1975-79-446.8204
1980-84-346.9074
1985-89127.0525
1990-94-127.2186
1995-99-137.4299
2000-0487.6222
2005-10-07.9620
Japan1955-59438.0481
1960-64498.4685
1965-69568.8840
1970-74549.2680
1975-79849.4049
1980-84819.5511
1985-891309.7081
1990-941289.8681
1995-991329.9139
2000-041339.9390
2005-111109.9909
Korea1955-59-337.08961
1960-64-217.15717
1965-69-57.43129
1970-74317.83996
1975-79548.22471
1980-841058.44430
1985-891488.83124
1990-941959.19904
1995-991669.47118
2000-041729.69661
2005-111229.90212
Taiwan1955-59-237.133
1960-64-47.301
1965-69-57.628
1970-7448.021
1975-7928.353
1980-84138.657
1985-89289.011
1990-94439.329
1995-99529.588
2000-04919.751
2005-11429.959
ASEAN1970-74-287.4498
1975-79-197.5867
1980-84-147.7176
1985-89-167.7673
1990-94-148.0047
1995-99-88.1863
2000-0448.2571
2005-10-68.9044
China
Korea
India
Japan
Taiwan
ASEAN
China
Korea
India
Japan
Taiwan
ASEAN
China
India
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ln GDP per capita
Relative Rate of Assistance, %
China
Korea
India
Japan
Taiwan
ASEAN
China
India
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
ln GDP per capita
Relative Rate of Assistance, %
-
Agric NRAs (%): China & Indonesia already exceed average for EU countriesSources: Huang et al. (2009), Warr (2009) and OECD (2016)
Chart1
1985-891985-891985-89
1995-991995-991995-99
2005-092005-092005-09
2013-152013-152013-15
EU28
China
Indonesia
58.8
-35
-2.3
54.2
1
-7.8
35.2
10
7
23
25
33
China
China199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152013-15
RiceNPC0.670.891.010.910.840.820.810.951.171.081.101.161.010.960.990.600.701.000.911.421.481.491.644.621.54
SSR969698981021021039997969010310598101104105101101101103108110320106.58
WheatNPC0.831.181.230.990.991.000.880.880.830.840.870.920.902.021.501.531.441.391.141.391.361.471.554.391.46
SSR95888993105951039591919099108117108108109104969094105114313104.45
MaizeNPC0.640.991.340.681.001.111.031.261.201.331.411.101.291.361.210.871.191.191.021.161.301.361.574.231.41
SSR1051039410388110106929610298111119106105115108100103112120127125372124.01
SoybeanNPC0.710.780.981.031.010.910.991.041.091.211.340.921.081.191.090.921.301.221.111.261.251.231.604.091.36
SSR98938074757668575048404032373030252321181514124213.85
SugarNPC0.801.061.181.171.311.071.321.901.021.270.981.231.520.881.341.001.981.361.131.261.731.631.935.291.76
SSR90929396959696999711311411511110310610393959598931027326789.08
MilkNPC1.372.642.272.972.402.081.551.811.261.931.501.110.961.100.730.811.521.161.241.511.411.451.654.511.50
SSR636466676366676974861041221341401421351211111039682807723879.46
BeefNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.161.161.161.161.161.161.163.471.16
SSR1011161159898989898989697878563781051081171179996969628895.87
PorkNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.161.161.161.161.161.161.161.163.481.16
SSR97991119797979497979595991029186100100991019999999429397.53
PoultryNPC1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.101.121.121.051.051.051.051.041.041.041.041.041.051.053.141.05
SSR871021051169192888991878684878685858586879090979828594.87
CottonNPC0.970.941.221.211.241.060.740.980.861.512.040.971.891.581.781.162.172.401.111.481.831.201.124.151.38
SSR9384818080889697948584105886771575259788587806723578.27
2013-15
NRASSR
Sugar76891.76
Rice541071.54
Milk50791.50
Wheat461041.46
Maize411241.41
Cotton38781.38
Soybean36141.36
AVERAGE25
Mutton1793
Pork16981.16
Beef16961.16
Poultry5951.05
Eggs0100
Apples0108
China
NRA
Vietnam
Vietnam, 2013-15, %
NRA
Beef62
Sugar59
Maize55
Pepper9
Rice2
AVERAGE1
Eggs1
Pork0
Poultry-11
Coffee-15
Cashew-21
Tea-24
Rubber-49
Vietnam
NRA
Sheet2
NRA
1985-891995-992005-092013-15
EU2859543523
China-3511025
Indonesia-2-7.8733
Sheet2
EU28
China
Indonesia
Indon
Indonesia, NRA %
2013-15
Sugar92
Rice88
Poultry79
Maize60
AVERAGE33
Beef27
Eggs19
Soybean0
Pork0
Bananas0
Cassava0
Cocoa0
Coffee0
Rubber0
Milk-9
Palm oil-12
Indon
2013-15
-
e.g., how much might agric protection growth limit agric import growth by China?
If China banned imports of rice, wheat, meat and milk to boost food self-sufficiency, its agric imports in 2030 would be 1/3rd lower
falling from 13% to 10% of its total imports, despite larger imports of animal feedstuffs
It would require huge increases in tariffsand breach China’s WTO commitments
• which would trigger disputes with other WTO members, evenif it’s in retaliation to US tariffs on imports from China
-
Modelling the world economy between 2007 and 2030: China’s food self sufficiency
Source: Anderson and Strutt (Food Policy, Dec. 2014)
Import tariff (%) to ensure self-sufficiency in rice, wheat, meat & milk in
China by 2030
Rice 195%Wheat 115%Beef & sheepmeat 255%Pork & poultry 165%Dairy products 160%
-
7. Does greater food import dependence mean less national food security?
Clearly not: look at Singapore and HK
If more self-reliance desired, invest in agricultural development abroad
as China, etc. are indeed doing
-
8. Does greater reliance on multinational food & beverage firms reduce nutrition?
Need not: if worried about junk food and sweet soft drinks, optimal policy responses are domestic (not trade) measures
e.g., labelling of sugar, calorie and salt content, and even taxing such ingredients used by food processors, domestic as well as foreign • Or/and subsidize processors who fortify their foods
-
9. Wouldn’t being more open to agric trade mean domestic food prices fluctuate more?
Not if all large countries were open, as that would ‘thicken’ international food markets
which would be even more valuable as climate change brings with it more-frequent/more-violent extreme weather events
-
10. Who will turn the need for more-open agricultural (and other) trade into action?
… especially as the US and EU struggle to get political support to do so?
Perhaps now is Asia’s time to step up?Is China ready & willing to take the lead (just as UK did in mid-19th century and US did post-WWII)?Australia/Cairns Group will for agriculture, in next WTO Ministerial, Buenos Aires, December 2017Does BREXIT also open up new opportunities?
-
Getting political approval may require domestic policy changes too
Ensure direct domestic policy measures assist losers from future int’l food price fluctuations
far cheaper nationally than using trade measures
e.g., in response to an upward price spike, use generic social protection measures to target just the most needy households, & only when prices spike• Design as a ‘trampoline’ rather than a ‘safety net’• ICT revolution is making possible such conditional
cash e-transfers even in low-income countries
-
Two new books (December 2016)
-
What might Brexit do to, e.g., wine trade?
New modeling results suggest Brexit could (in absence of new UK bilateral FTAs to replace current EU28 ones) shrink the value of global wine trade by 2%
and by >3% for EU27, Chile and South Africa• Or >5% for Chile & S. Africa if UK signs an FTA with EU but not with them
Australia would sell more wine to UK, but would be out-competed by EU27 in other markets, hence Australia may export less wine in total because of Brexit
-
As with all FTAs, devil is in details
Most bilateral FTAs divert/redistribute global trade much more than they expand it
Hence the desirability of multilateral or mega-regional agreements in preference to many overlapping bilaterals
-
Thanks!All Agric Distortions Research Project working papers, regional and poverty e-books, and global distortions database are freely available at: www.worldbank.org/ agdistortions
Anderson, K. (ed.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Global Perspective, 1955-2007. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009Anderson, K., J. Cockburn and W. Martin (eds.), Agricultural Price Distortions, Inequality and Poverty. Washington DC: World Bank, 2010 Martin, W. and K. Anderson, ‘Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms’, Amer Jou of Agric Econ 94(2): 422-27, Jan. 2012Anderson, K., M. Ivanic and W. Martin, “Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty”, in The Economics of Food Price Volatility, eds. J.-P. Chavas, D. Hummels and B. Wright, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 2014Anderson, K., Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security,London: Palgrave Macmillan, December 2016Anderson, K., Finishing Global Farm Trade Reform: Implications for Developing Countries, University of Adelaide Press, January 2017Headey, D., “Food Prices and Poverty”, World Bank Economic Review, 2017
Trade-related policy developments�and global food security�Key questionNumber of undernourished people not yet declining in SSAfrica and South Asia (millions)Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�Can we feed 8.5 billion people by 2030?�How did previous societies avoid Mathus’ problem?�Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…Distant past: role of int’l tradeIndustrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices Industrial Revolution boosted agric intercontinental trade & real prices 19th century inter-continental trade and globalizationBoom in primary product prices in 19th century (1796-1913), decline in Britain’s terms of trade (to late 1850s)Outline: Agric trade’s role in the…Real int’l prices of farm products since 1920Real int’l agric prices, 1900-2000�(Source: World Bank, 1977-79 = 100)Real int’l prices of farm products declined in 20th century for 2 reasonsTrade policy impact on real �international prices of farm productsSlide Number 19Key agric policy features, 1960 to mid-1980sFarm policy reforms since mid-1980sUps & downs of agric NRAs for HICsFarm policy reforms since mid-1980sAgric NRAs for DCs (%)Relative Rate of Assistance (RRA) to DC farmers: from negative to slightly positiveAustralia’s RRA: very similar to DCs’ (%)Convergence of average NRAs close to zero hides much varianceOutline: Agric trade’s role in the…1. Is world nearly free of agric distortions now?2. How close had world come to being free of goods trade distortions by 2004?3. How much more would agric prod’n be traded if all remaining trade distortions in 2004 were removed?4. Would removal of remaining trade distortions reduce global poverty, & income inequality?5. Will continued economic growth in Asia starve rest of world? 6. To what extent will China, India, Indonesia, etc copy NEAsia’s agricultural protection path as incomes rise? (% RRAs, 1955-2011)Agric NRAs (%): China & Indonesia already exceed average for EU countries�Sources: Huang et al. (2009), Warr (2009) and OECD (2016)e.g., how much might agric protection �growth limit agric import growth by China?Modelling the world economy between �2007 and 2030: China’s food self sufficiency �Source: Anderson and Strutt (Food Policy, Dec. 2014)7. Does greater food import dependence mean less national food security?8. Does greater reliance on multinational food & beverage firms reduce nutrition?9. Wouldn’t being more open to agric trade mean domestic food prices fluctuate more?10. Who will turn the need for more-open agricultural (and other) trade into action?Getting political approval may require domestic policy changes too�Two new books (December 2016)What might Brexit do to, e.g., wine trade?As with all FTAs, devil is in detailsThanks!