Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public’s View - … · 03/10/2017 · Trade: Behind the Headlines...
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Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public’s View Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes WTO, Geneva, September 26, 2017
Transcript of Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public’s View - … · 03/10/2017 · Trade: Behind the Headlines...
Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public’s View
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes WTO, Geneva, September 26, 2017
THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT HAS IMPROVED
October 3, 2017 www.pewproject.org 2
October 3, 2017 3
Views of National Economies Vary Widely
The current economic situation in our country is good
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q5.
Many Feel Better About Their National Economies
4
The current economic situation in our country is good
Note: Only double digit changes shown. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.
2017 2015-2017 Change % Poland 64 +26 Russia 46 +22 Indonesia 63 +21 Ghana 46 +20 Turkey 65 +18 U.S. 58 +18 Senegal 76 +16 Philippines 78 +15 Israel 62 +13 Germany 86 +11 Spain 28 +10 Mexico 28 -12 South Africa 45 -14 Argentina 23 -15 Nigeria 41 -16
October 3, 2017 5
In EU, Japan, U.S., Views of Economy Have Recovered to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels
The current economic situation in our country is good
Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes survey. Q5.
6
28 36
36 46
50
0
80
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
51 EU 58 U.S.
41 Japan
%
2017
BUT DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION
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Americans Have Experienced Dramatic Change in One Lifetime
Source: Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas analysis based on data from U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center, U.S. Dept. of Labor and T. Piketty.
1967 2017
% % Non-white 12 38
Foreign-born 4.9 14
White, no college education 75 39
18-34, living with parents 22 32
Births to unmarried women 8.5 40.3
Women in the workforce 41 57
Share of wealth owned by top 1% 27 42
PUBLICS SUPPORT GLOBALIZATION IN PRINCIPLE
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People Around the World Favor International Trade and Business Ties
9
In general, trade and business ties between our country and other countries around the world is a good thing
Note: Percentages represent regional medians. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.
91%
90
88
83
80
87
Europe
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
Latin America
U.S.
But If Costs and Benefits Are Noted, Support Goes Down
10
Which statement comes closer to your view about our country’s involvement in the global economy?
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
25% 25 24
25 25
27 28 29
23 32
34 39
25 45
27 46 44
49 57
71% 71 70 70 70
67 64 64
60 58
56 56
52 51
48 48
44 44
35
Netherlands Sweden
Germany Kenya
Nigeria Australia Canada
UK China Japan
Hungary Spain India
France Poland
South Africa ItalyU.S.
Greece
Good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth
Bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs in our country
THOSE WHO HAVE PROSPERED ARE PARTICULARLY UPBEAT ABOUT GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
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Chinese Have Positive View of Global Economic Engagement Which statement comes closer to your view
about China’s involvement in the global economy?
60% 11%
6%
23%
Don't know
It is good because it
provides China with new
markets and opportunities
for growth
It is bad because it
lowers wages and costs jobs
Neither (VOL)
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
TOTAL 60%
Urban 63 Rural 55
Involvement in the global economy is a good thing for China because it provides our
country with new markets and opportunities for growth
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Roughly Half of Indians Think India’s Involvement in the Global Economy Is a Good Thing
52% 20%
3%
25%
It’s good because it
provides India with new markets,
opportunities for growth
It’s bad because it
lowers wages, costs jobs
Neither (VOL) Don’t know
Which statement comes closer to your view about India’s involvement in the global economy?
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
AFRICANS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
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Kenyans, Nigerians Quite Positive on the Benefits of Global Economic Involvement; South Africans Split
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Which statement comes closer to your view about our country’s involvement in the global economy?
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
25%
25
46
70%
70
48
Kenya
Nigeria
South Africa
It is good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth
It is bad because it lowers wages and
costs jobs
IN EUROPE, IT DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK
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Widely Differing European Views on Economic Engagement
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Our country’s involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth
72%
71
70
64
56
56
51
48
44
35
Netherlands
Sweden
Germany
UK
Hungary
Spain
France
Poland
Italy
Greece
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
October 3, 2017 18
Those Partial to Populist Parties Are More Negative on Global Economic Engagement
Our country’s involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
53%
44
42
38
38
43%
17
20
22
25
Among those with a favorable view of … Among those with an unfavorable view of …
French National Front
Dutch Party for Freedom
Swedish Democrats
UK Independence Party
Alternative for Germany
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One Reason: Many Doubt the Benefits of Trade and FDI
Trade is good
Trade increases
wages
Trade creates
jobs
Trade lowers prices
Foreign companies
buying domestic
companies is good
Foreign companies
building factories in our country
is good % % % % % %
Spain 91 28 56 22 43 85
Germany 90 28 43 26 19 66
UK 88 34 50 24 39 82
Greece 79 21 44 35 31 67
Poland 78 38 51 26 40 75
France 73 14 24 28 32 75
Italy 59 7 13 22 23 61 Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey.
JAPANESE BACK ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN PRINCIPLE BUT DOUBT ITS BENEFITS
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October 3, 2017 www.pewresearch.org 21
Involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides Japan with new markets and opportunities for growth
Majority Say Global Economic Engagement is a Good Thing, But Women and Older People Are Less Positive
Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.
58%
63
53
67
62
53
Total
Men
Women
18-34
35-49
50+
Japanese Are the Least Enthusiastic in Asia-Pacific About Globalization’s Benefits
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Trade is good
Trade increases
wages
Trade creates
jobs
Trade lowers prices
Foreign companies
buying domestic
companies is good
Foreign companies
building factories in our
country is good
% % % % % %
Vietnam 95 72 78 31 59 80
Malaysia 87 47 57 9 45 78
Chile 85 27 52 28 53 68
Peru 81 42 55 24 59 70
Mexico 71 31 43 24 50 69
Japan 69 10 15 27 17 58
Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey.
AMERICAN VIEWS ON TRADE ARE PARTISAN AND CHANGING
Sept. 18, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 23
In Principle Americans Favor Free Trade Deals
October 3, 2017 24
Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017.
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States
52 48
59 58 51
45 52
34 41
30 33 39
43 40
0
80
Good thing
Bad thing
%
2009 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017
Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals
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Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017.
Good thing Bad thing % %
TOTAL Population 52 40 White men 46 47
18-34 63 32
35-49 49 41
50-64 35 55
65+ 34 58
Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States
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All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes
[email protected] @bruceestokes
