Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During El Nino Andy Chan Environmental and Water...
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Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During El Nino Andy Chan Environmental and Water Resources Engineering University of Texas at Austin webspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis
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Transcript of Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During El Nino Andy Chan Environmental and Water...
Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During
El Nino
Andy ChanEnvironmental and Water Resources
EngineeringUniversity of Texas at Austinwebspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis
EAST ASIA
China
Vietnam
North Korea
SouthKorea
Japan
Taiwan
ThePhilippines
Macau
Data Source
• Joint Typhoon Warning Centerhttp://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/wpindex.html
• NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Dr. Johnny Chan’s Observation
Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate,
13, 2960-2972
Determining El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Years
Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ENL
1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 L
1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N
1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N
1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 E
1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N
1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 E
1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 L
1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N
1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 E
1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 L
1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 L
2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 L
2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N
2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 E
2003 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 E
Raw Data
Convert Points to Polygon
http://www.xtoolspro.com/tools.html
POINTS AND POLYLINE
THE GRID
Neutral Years
El Nino Years
La Nina Years
Difference between El Nino and Neutral Years
Difference between La Nina and Neutral Years
Conclusion
El Nino La Nina
South China Sea
Below Normal
Above Normal
East Asia (Japan)
Above Normal
Below Normal
Matched with the observations in Dr. Chan’s paper.
