Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change...

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Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and opportunities Rob Sturgiss, Assistant Secretary, National Inventory Systems Branch DoEE

Transcript of Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change...

Page 1: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Tracking greenhouse

emissionsThe science, challenges and opportunities

Rob Sturgiss,

Assistant Secretary, National Inventory Systems Branch DoEE

Page 2: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters 2. Stakeholders that care

3. New technologies – new directions?

4. Building institutions for user confidence

5. The role for science

6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 3: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Snapshot of the Australian inventory (2005) & direction of change since 2005

Fuel

combustion

– coal

33%

Fuel

combustion

- gas

9%

Fuel combustion - oil

19%

Fugitive

emissions

– energy

6%

Industrial

processes

5%

Waste

2%

Agricultur

e

13%

Land

13%

72%

5%

21%

2% 0% 0%

Methane

Carbon

dioxideNitrous

oxide

HFCsPFCs

and SF6

Page 4: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters

2. Stakeholders that care 3. New technologies – new directions?

4. Building institutions for user confidence

5. The role for science

6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 5: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Some inventory stakeholders can be

sceptical…

‘disgraceful’

‘dodgy’

‘not worth the paper they are printed on’

‘cooking the books’

‘liars’

…shooting the messenger..

Page 6: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

…. inventory and climate science

challenges are interconnected

Source: IPCC AR5

Technical estimation issues relevant for climate science as well as for inventories

Cape Grim, CSIRO

Page 7: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Inventories are a feature of climate change treaties

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)

Commitments (Article 4.1 (a)):

Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of Parties national inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Paris Agreement (2015)

All place systems for monitoring, reporting and verification of greenhouse

emissions at the heart of the treaty

Managing incentives for free-riding by building institutions with

checks and balances

Inventory reporting central to

international co-operation

The Paris Agreement Global Stocktake connects science, negotiators and inventories

Page 8: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters

2. Stakeholders that care

3. New technologies – new directions? 4. Building institutions for user confidence

5. The role for science

6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 9: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

https://phys.org/news/2016-12-china-carbon-dioxide-satellite.html#jCp

Space agencies developing global GHG monitoring systems –

for science and for UN negotiators? ….and inventories?

China state media .. new satellite would give them a ‘louder voice in future carbon reduction negotiations’

Page 10: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

NASA’s ‘top down’ view – spatial mapping of

CO2 concentrations

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82142

1-31 May 2013

CO2

monitoring

systems

measure

concentrations

not emissions

Stronger concentrations in lighter coloursCape Grim

Intense CO2

concentrations overNth America, Europe, East Asia, West Africa.

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A second ‘top down’ view … working with NASA data

Intense CO2

concentrations overEast Asia; Nth America, Europe; West Africa and the Amazon. Average concentrations over a whole year 2014/15

Derived from https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/#mission=OCO-2

Page 12: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

A second ‘top down’ view … working with NASA data

Intense CO2

concentrations overEast Asia; Nth America, Europe; West Africa and the Amazon. Average concentrations over a whole year 2014/15

Derived from https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/#mission=OCO-2

Page 13: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Australia’s

national

greenhouse

gas inventory

Page 14: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

National Inventory – uses ‘bottom up’

approaches

An example: Carbon dioxide emissions estimates

National statistics on activity data

like national fuel consumption statistics

Characterise fuels by carbon content

Measured or assumed carbon content of fuels

IPCC methods – assume complete oxidation of the fuel

Page 15: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Accounting / classification systems

Science, models & measurements

Purpose built software (AGEIS)

National Energy Statistics (DoEE)

National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER)

Scheme data (CER)

Agricultural and Transport Statistics (ABS)

DoEE remote sensing & FullCAM land sector carbon models

Supported by GeoScience Australia, CSIRO Data61,

CSIRO Land & Water, ANU and other academic

institutions

DoEE partners with science bodies and uses

public national data

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EF = 0.94ME = 0 t/haRMSE = 62Lin’s = 0.97

FullCAM biomass layer

t dm/ha

DoEE - using ‘big data’ to estimate land sector emissions

FullCAM upgrade:

New biomass and

ecosystem dynamics

research by CSIRO’s

Steve Roxburgh and

Keryn Paul

implemented 2017

‘Big Data’

DoEE is the biggest

user of

GeoScience

Australia’s

datacube (soon

to become Digital

Earth Australia)

Images are

processed using

CSIRO Data61

land cover

algorithms

Biomass and carbon estimated using FullCAM

Landsat images

are verified using

high-res images

like google earth

and digital globe

Page 17: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters

2. Stakeholders that care

3. New technologies – new directions?

4. Building institutions for user confidence 5. The role for science

6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 18: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

1. International treaty rules and institutions

Submission of annual inventories of anthropogenic emissions

Estimation - mandatory use of IPCC guidelines for preparation of national inventories

Review - annual expert review processes

Penalties for non-compliance (KP)

IPCC guidelines provide an estimation framework which constrains inventory compilers

Page 19: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

2. Integration with mature, domestic

measurement systems

National Greenhouse Accounting framework

Estimation methods used for companies, projects must be consistent with national inventory methods

National Measurement Act a tonne is a tonne……

Commercial standards ISO, Australian standards, international standards - for energy & carbon contents etc

Taxation systems Excise tax system for petroleum classifications

Companies estimating emissions under NGERs make use of existing legislative instruments, standards and compliance systems where possible

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3. Reviews, audit and scrutiny

UNFCCC expert reviews to test compliance with international rules

50 page report every year for each of the last 14 years

http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/inventory_review_reports/items/2767.php

ANAO performance audit

Performance audits completed in 2010, 2017

5000 data points tested – 0.1% correction over time series… not material….

https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/accounting-reporting-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-estimates

ParliamentaryThe data are heavily

scrutinised in formal processes

Page 21: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

4. Governance and transparency

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Committee

(States and Territories)

Multiple audiences

National Greenhouse Accounts

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory – using IPCC classifications

State and Territory inventories

National Inventory by economic sector – using ANZSIC classifications

Quarterly Updates – timely release of preliminary estimates

Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System database

http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/

Additional accounts expose

estimates to greater numbers of

users & greater scrutiny

Transparency is very high

Page 22: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Contributions to other

releases

State of the Forests

State of the Environment

System of Environmental Accounts

Protecting carbon reservoirs is a UNFCCC treaty objective

35,100,000

35,150,000

35,200,000

35,250,000

35,300,000

35,350,000

35,400,000

35,450,000

35,500,000

35,550,000

19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016

Australia: land carbon stocks

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5. Independent data sets & multiple lines of evidence

DoEE and Qld DSITI agree within 10% on average for ‘forest’ clearing’

Example of Queensland ‘land’ clearing

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800.0

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DoEE forest clearing Qld DSITI vegetation clearing

DoEE includes additional sub-forest losses within another classification: ‘grazing management’

Gridded sample of DoEE estimates verified using high resolution images

Page 24: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Queensland forest vegetation changes(kha)

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Primary forest conversion Secondary forest re-clearing

Most forest clearing is low-biomass secondary forest re-clearing for pasture maintenance

-500.0

0.0

500.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Secondary forest re-clearing Secondary forest - new

Secondary forests are now appearing faster than they are being cleared - by 150,000 ha in 2015

Page 25: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters

2. Stakeholders that care

3. New technologies – new directions?

4. Building institutions for user confidence

5. The role for science 6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 26: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Hydrofluorocarbons – reconciling Australian

inventory and atmospheric measurements

Australian HFC emissions calculated from Cape Grim observations and in the Inventory (NGGI/NGA, ageis.climatechange.gov.au).

Diverging

trends –

Australian

inventory

over-

estimating in

recent years

New Australian

methods will calibrate

leakage rates to

atmospheric

measurements

HFCs

account

for ~2% of

GHG

emissions

0

2000

4000

6000

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10000

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Gg

CO

2-e

Inverse modelling requires an

understanding of air flows in

order to attribute changed

concentrations at Cape Grim

to a particular source

Page 27: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Perfluorocarbons – reconciling global aggregation of

inventories and atmospheric measurements

Diverging trends –inventories under-estimating implied emissions determined from changing atmospheric concentrations

New IPCC guidelines will expand methods for emissions from aluminium to help correct divergence

PFCs are a synthetic gas; completely

anthropogenic and accountable

PFCs

account

for <1% of

global

GHG

emissions

Page 28: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Methane – science contributes to inventory updates

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43

Day et el CSIRO 2014kg/hour

CSIRO research and US studies form basis for new Australian inventory methods

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Recent US empirical studies on methane:

room for interpretation?MEI DoEE

Turner et al 2016

Harvard Univ.

..a 30% increase in U.S. emissions is indicated

over the past decade during a time when

emission inventories indicate no change.

US EPA estimate for oil and gas fugitive emissions,

at 8.8 Tg/ yr, is consistent with the range estimated

by Turner et al of 8.8-13.2 Tg / yr.

Peischl, et al 2015

Univ.of Colorado

..loss rates for the Haynesville Fayetteville,

and NE Marcellus shales ..0.2 to 2.8%.

This [average] rate is similar to a 1.0% loss rate

derived from the 2012 EPA GHG emissions

inventory for natural gas systems

Pétron, Karion et

al 2014

.. losses of methane estimated to be 2 to 8% of production in the Denver--‐Julesburg Basin

(Colorado).

The three top-down emission ..give a rather large

range of potential emissions

Miller et al 2013 Miller’s estimated average methane

emissions range for the industry could be put

at 7.0 to 10.8 Tg a year for 2007 and 2008.

The US EPA estimate, at 7.6 Tg a year, is consistent

with Miller’s estimates.

Karion et al 2015 Karion et al 2015 found losses of 1.3−1.9% of

total methane from oil/gas systems in the

Barnett shale region of Texas.

This estimate agrees with the U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency (EPA)

Karion,et al.

(2013)

Airborne methane measurements point to 6 -‐12% emission rate in the Uintah Basin,

This study..illustrates the need for further

measurements to determine the

representativeness of our single-day estimate...

Schneising, et al.

(2014), Univ. of

Bremen,

Current inventories underestimate methane

Emissions from Bakken and Eagle Ford

found to be 10% and 9% of production.

Estimates for the Marcellus region were

considered unreliable and not reported.

Allen (2014), Univ.

Of Texas

inventories underestimate the amount of

methane entering the atmosphere.

For well completion flowbacks..emissions ranged

from 0.01 Mg to 17 Mg compared with an

average of 81 Mg per event in the EPA.

Black =

quotes

Purple=deriv

ed

DoEE view:

High

confidence

that

empirical

data

consistent

with US EPA

inventory

Page 30: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

DoEE recalculations in 2017 to estimates of

fugitive (leaks) emissions from gas: Australia

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2017 inventory

2016 inventory

2017: new

methods

introduced for

leakages from

wellheads,

fracking,

gathering,

processing,

LNG – aligning

with US EPA

and CSIRO

research

Well

completions

(incl

fracking)

4%Production:

Onshore

wells

0.3%Production:

Water

Production

11%

Production:

Onshore

Gathering

and

Boosting

11%

Processing:

leakage

4%

Production

and

Processing:

Flaring

31%

Production

and

Processing:

Venting

19%

Transmission

and Storage

6%

Distribution

14%

Page 31: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Carbon dioxide: NASA’s view - land matters

Intense concentrations over the Amazon, Sthn Africa, East AsiaNth America.

Concentrations for a short season: 6 weeks in Southern Hemisphere spring..NASA https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19dec_oco/

Page 32: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Talk outline

1. Why the inventory matters

2. Stakeholders that care

3. New technologies – new directions?

4. Building institutions for user confidence

5. The role for science

6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

Page 33: Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change Instituteclimate.anu.edu.au/files/Tracking-GHG-emissions-Rob-Sturgiss.pdf · Tracking greenhouse emissions The science, challenges and

Paris Agreement and future challenges

The Australian inventory is underpinned by many institutional

checks and balances

Strong linkages exist between inventory compilers, climate

scientists and international negotiation processes

Improvements in the pipeline as technology changes, new

science emerges and as IPCC rules update

Inventory systems designed to underpin behavioural change

Australian inventory experience is highly valued in the region