Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change...

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Transcript of Tracking greenhouse emissions - Climate Change...

  • Tracking greenhouse

    emissionsThe science, challenges and opportunities

    Rob Sturgiss,

    Assistant Secretary, National Inventory Systems Branch DoEE

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters 2. Stakeholders that care

    3. New technologies – new directions?

    4. Building institutions for user confidence

    5. The role for science

    6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • Snapshot of the Australian inventory (2005) & direction of change since 2005

    Fuel

    combustion

    – coal

    33%

    Fuel

    combustion

    - gas

    9%

    Fuel combustion - oil

    19%

    Fugitive

    emissions

    – energy

    6%

    Industrial

    processes

    5%

    Waste

    2%

    Agricultur

    e

    13%

    Land

    13%

    72%

    5%

    21%

    2% 0% 0%

    Methane

    Carbon

    dioxideNitrous

    oxide

    HFCsPFCs

    and SF6

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters

    2. Stakeholders that care 3. New technologies – new directions?

    4. Building institutions for user confidence

    5. The role for science

    6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • Some inventory stakeholders can be

    sceptical…

    ‘disgraceful’

    ‘dodgy’

    ‘not worth the paper they are printed on’

    ‘cooking the books’

    ‘liars’

    …shooting the messenger..

  • …. inventory and climate science

    challenges are interconnected

    Source: IPCC AR5

    Technical estimation issues relevant for climate science as well as for inventories

    Cape Grim, CSIRO

  • Inventories are a feature of climate change treaties

    UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)

    Commitments (Article 4.1 (a)):

    Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of Parties national inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals

    Kyoto Protocol (1997)

    Paris Agreement (2015)

    All place systems for monitoring, reporting and verification of greenhouse

    emissions at the heart of the treaty

    Managing incentives for free-riding by building institutions with

    checks and balances

    Inventory reporting central to

    international co-operation

    The Paris Agreement Global Stocktake connects science, negotiators and inventories

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters

    2. Stakeholders that care

    3. New technologies – new directions? 4. Building institutions for user confidence

    5. The role for science

    6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • https://phys.org/news/2016-12-china-carbon-dioxide-satellite.html#jCp

    Space agencies developing global GHG monitoring systems –

    for science and for UN negotiators? ….and inventories?

    China state media .. new satellite would give them a ‘louder voice in future carbon reduction negotiations’

    https://phys.org/news/2016-12-china-carbon-dioxide-satellite.html#jCp

  • NASA’s ‘top down’ view – spatial mapping of

    CO2 concentrations

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82142

    1-31 May 2013

    CO2monitoring

    systems

    measure

    concentrations

    not emissions

    Stronger concentrations in lighter coloursCape Grim

    Intense CO2 concentrations overNth America, Europe, East Asia, West Africa.

  • A second ‘top down’ view … working with NASA data

    Intense CO2 concentrations overEast Asia; Nth America, Europe; West Africa and the Amazon. Average concentrations over a whole year 2014/15

    Derived from https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/#mission=OCO-2

  • A second ‘top down’ view … working with NASA data

    Intense CO2 concentrations overEast Asia; Nth America, Europe; West Africa and the Amazon. Average concentrations over a whole year 2014/15

    Derived from https://co2.jpl.nasa.gov/#mission=OCO-2

  • Australia’s

    national

    greenhouse

    gas inventory

  • National Inventory – uses ‘bottom up’

    approaches

    An example: Carbon dioxide emissions estimates

    National statistics on activity data

    like national fuel consumption statistics

    Characterise fuels by carbon content

    Measured or assumed carbon content of fuels

    IPCC methods – assume complete oxidation of the fuel

  • Accounting / classification systems

    Science, models & measurements

    Purpose built software (AGEIS)

    National Energy Statistics (DoEE)

    National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER)

    Scheme data (CER)

    Agricultural and Transport Statistics (ABS)

    DoEE remote sensing & FullCAM land sector carbon models

    Supported by GeoScience Australia, CSIRO Data61,

    CSIRO Land & Water, ANU and other academic

    institutions

    DoEE partners with science bodies and uses

    public national data

  • EF = 0.94ME = 0 t/haRMSE = 62Lin’s = 0.97

    FullCAM biomass layer

    t dm/ha

    DoEE - using ‘big data’ to estimate land sector emissions

    FullCAM upgrade:

    New biomass and

    ecosystem dynamics

    research by CSIRO’s

    Steve Roxburgh and

    Keryn Paul

    implemented 2017

    ‘Big Data’

    DoEE is the biggest

    user of

    GeoScience

    Australia’s

    datacube (soon

    to become Digital

    Earth Australia)

    Images are

    processed using

    CSIRO Data61

    land cover

    algorithms

    Biomass and carbon estimated using FullCAM

    Landsat images

    are verified using

    high-res images

    like google earth

    and digital globe

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters

    2. Stakeholders that care

    3. New technologies – new directions?

    4. Building institutions for user confidence 5. The role for science

    6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • 1. International treaty rules and institutions

    Submission of annual inventories of anthropogenic emissions

    Estimation - mandatory use of IPCC guidelines for preparation of national inventories

    Review - annual expert review processes

    Penalties for non-compliance (KP)

    IPCC guidelines provide an estimation framework which constrains inventory compilers

  • 2. Integration with mature, domestic

    measurement systems

    National Greenhouse Accounting framework

    Estimation methods used for companies, projects must be consistent with national inventory methods

    National Measurement Act a tonne is a tonne……

    Commercial standards ISO, Australian standards, international standards - for energy & carbon contents etc

    Taxation systems Excise tax system for petroleum classifications

    Companies estimating emissions under NGERs make use of existing legislative instruments, standards and compliance systems where possible

  • 3. Reviews, audit and scrutiny

    UNFCCC expert reviews to test compliance with international rules

    50 page report every year for each of the last 14 years

    http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/inventory_review_reports/items/2767.php

    ANAO performance audit

    Performance audits completed in 2010, 2017

    5000 data points tested – 0.1% correction over time series… not material….

    https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/accounting-reporting-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-estimates

    ParliamentaryThe data are heavily

    scrutinised in formal processes

  • 4. Governance and transparency

    National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Committee

    (States and Territories)

    Multiple audiences

    National Greenhouse Accounts

    National Greenhouse Gas Inventory – using IPCC classifications

    State and Territory inventories

    National Inventory by economic sector – using ANZSIC classifications

    Quarterly Updates – timely release of preliminary estimates

    Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System database

    http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/

    Additional accounts expose

    estimates to greater numbers of

    users & greater scrutiny

    Transparency is very high

  • Contributions to other

    releases

    State of the Forests

    State of the Environment

    System of Environmental Accounts

    Protecting carbon reservoirs is a UNFCCC treaty objective

    35,100,000

    35,150,000

    35,200,000

    35,250,000

    35,300,000

    35,350,000

    35,400,000

    35,450,000

    35,500,000

    35,550,000

    19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016

    Australia: land carbon stocks

  • 5. Independent data sets & multiple lines of evidence

    DoEE and Qld DSITI agree within 10% on average for ‘forest’ clearing’

    Example of Queensland ‘land’ clearing

    0.0

    100.0

    200.0

    300.0

    400.0

    500.0

    600.0

    700.0

    800.0

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    DoEE forest clearing Qld DSITI vegetation clearing

    DoEE includes additional sub-forest losses within another classification: ‘grazing management’

    Gridded sample of DoEE estimates verified using high resolution images

  • Queensland forest vegetation changes(kha)

    0.0

    500.0

    1000.0

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

    Primary forest conversion Secondary forest re-clearing

    Most forest clearing is low-biomass secondary forest re-clearing for pasture maintenance

    -500.0

    0.0

    500.0

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

    Secondary forest re-clearing Secondary forest - new

    Secondary forests are now appearing faster than they are being cleared - by 150,000 ha in 2015

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters

    2. Stakeholders that care

    3. New technologies – new directions?

    4. Building institutions for user confidence

    5. The role for science 6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • Hydrofluorocarbons – reconciling Australian inventory and atmospheric measurements

    Australian HFC emissions calculated from Cape Grim observations and in the Inventory (NGGI/NGA, ageis.climatechange.gov.au).

    Diverging

    trends –

    Australian

    inventory

    over-

    estimating in

    recent years

    New Australian

    methods will calibrate

    leakage rates to

    atmospheric

    measurements

    HFCs

    account

    for ~2% of

    GHG

    emissions

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Gg

    CO

    2-e

    Inverse modelling requires an

    understanding of air flows in

    order to attribute changed

    concentrations at Cape Grim

    to a particular source

  • Perfluorocarbons – reconciling global aggregation ofinventories and atmospheric measurements

    Diverging trends –inventories under-estimating implied emissions determined from changing atmospheric concentrations

    New IPCC guidelines will expand methods for emissions from aluminium to help correct divergence

    PFCs are a synthetic gas; completely

    anthropogenic and accountable

    PFCs

    account

    for

  • Methane – science contributes to inventory updates

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43

    Day et el CSIRO 2014kg/hour

    CSIRO research and US studies form basis for new Australian inventory methods

  • Recent US empirical studies on methane:

    room for interpretation?MEI DoEE

    Turner et al 2016

    Harvard Univ.

    ..a 30% increase in U.S. emissions is indicated

    over the past decade during a time when

    emission inventories indicate no change.

    US EPA estimate for oil and gas fugitive emissions,

    at 8.8 Tg/ yr, is consistent with the range estimated

    by Turner et al of 8.8-13.2 Tg / yr.

    Peischl, et al 2015

    Univ.of Colorado

    ..loss rates for the Haynesville Fayetteville,

    and NE Marcellus shales ..0.2 to 2.8%.

    This [average] rate is similar to a 1.0% loss rate

    derived from the 2012 EPA GHG emissions

    inventory for natural gas systems

    Pétron, Karion et

    al 2014

    .. losses of methane estimated to be 2 to 8% of production in the Denver--‐Julesburg Basin (Colorado).

    The three top-down emission ..give a rather large

    range of potential emissions

    Miller et al 2013 Miller’s estimated average methane

    emissions range for the industry could be put

    at 7.0 to 10.8 Tg a year for 2007 and 2008.

    The US EPA estimate, at 7.6 Tg a year, is consistent

    with Miller’s estimates.

    Karion et al 2015 Karion et al 2015 found losses of 1.3−1.9% of

    total methane from oil/gas systems in the

    Barnett shale region of Texas.

    This estimate agrees with the U.S. Environmental

    Protection Agency (EPA)

    Karion,et al.

    (2013)

    Airborne methane measurements point to 6 -‐12% emission rate in the Uintah Basin,

    This study..illustrates the need for further

    measurements to determine the

    representativeness of our single-day estimate...

    Schneising, et al.

    (2014), Univ. of

    Bremen,

    Current inventories underestimate methane

    Emissions from Bakken and Eagle Ford

    found to be 10% and 9% of production.

    Estimates for the Marcellus region were

    considered unreliable and not reported.

    Allen (2014), Univ.

    Of Texas

    inventories underestimate the amount of

    methane entering the atmosphere.

    For well completion flowbacks..emissions ranged

    from 0.01 Mg to 17 Mg compared with an

    average of 81 Mg per event in the EPA.

    Black =

    quotes

    Purple=deriv

    ed

    DoEE view:

    High

    confidence

    that

    empirical

    data

    consistent

    with US EPA

    inventory

  • DoEE recalculations in 2017 to estimates of

    fugitive (leaks) emissions from gas: Australia

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    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

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    2017 inventory

    2016 inventory

    2017: new

    methods

    introduced for

    leakages from

    wellheads,

    fracking,

    gathering,

    processing,

    LNG – aligning

    with US EPA

    and CSIRO

    research

    Well

    completions

    (incl

    fracking)

    4%Production:

    Onshore

    wells

    0.3%Production:

    Water

    Production

    11%

    Production:

    Onshore

    Gathering

    and

    Boosting

    11%

    Processing:

    leakage

    4%

    Production

    and

    Processing:

    Flaring

    31%

    Production

    and

    Processing:

    Venting

    19%

    Transmission

    and Storage

    6%

    Distribution

    14%

  • Carbon dioxide: NASA’s view - land matters

    Intense concentrations over the Amazon, Sthn Africa, East AsiaNth America.

    Concentrations for a short season: 6 weeks in Southern Hemisphere spring..NASA https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19dec_oco/

  • Talk outline

    1. Why the inventory matters

    2. Stakeholders that care

    3. New technologies – new directions?

    4. Building institutions for user confidence

    5. The role for science

    6. Inventories and the Paris Agreement

  • Paris Agreement and future challenges

    The Australian inventory is underpinned by many institutional

    checks and balances

    Strong linkages exist between inventory compilers, climate

    scientists and international negotiation processes

    Improvements in the pipeline as technology changes, new

    science emerges and as IPCC rules update

    Inventory systems designed to underpin behavioural change

    Australian inventory experience is highly valued in the region