Track C Session: Managing Research and Intelligence...

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BUSINESS FORECASTING AND INNOVATION FORUM 2015 September 17-18, 2015 – Boston, MA

September 17, 2:15PM

Track C Session: Managing Research and Intelligence Bias

How to get out of your own way & lead the way for your customers

Cynthia Cheng Correia, Managing Director of Knowledge inForm As Managing Director of Knowledge inForm, Cynthia Cheng Correia helps professionals and organizations across industries establish and enhance their competitive and strategic intelligence capabilities through training, improving processes and practices, and applying

effective tools. She has helped corporate information centers and marketing units expand into competitive intelligence functions, organizations maximize their knowledge bases for intelligence applications, and learn how to conduct expert-level intelligence research and intelligence practices. Cynthia has appeared in leading publications, including Super Searchers on Competitive Intelligence (Information Today), The New York Times, and Information Outlook. The founding Editor of Intelligence Insights, she has also written numerous articles and authored the column, “In the Know,” for Competitive Intelligence Magazine for many years. She is a frequent speaker on competitive intelligence and information/knowledge-related topics, and has been featured by the Strategic & Competitive Intelligence (SCIP), Information Today, and SLA. A recipient of SCIP’s 2011 Catalyst Award and the 2012 WISE Faculty of the Year award, Cynthia has served as the Massachusetts Chapter Chair and Co-Chair for SCIP, as well as held other leadership positions in CI organizations. She has also been named to be inducted as a Competitive Intelligence Fellow in 2015. Cynthia teaches a graduate-level course in competitive intelligence at the Simmons College School of Library and Information Science, and she has held other instructional positions in CI and KM.

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{ How to Get Out of Your Own Way &

Lead the Way for Your Customers }

Managing Research &

Intelligence Bias

Cynthia Cheng Correia

The Competitive & Market Research Summit

September 17, 2015

© 2015 Knowledge inForm, Inc.

In business, the competition will

bite you if you keep running; if you

stand still, they will swallow you.

-- William S. Knudsen, former president,

General Motors and Lt. General, U.S. Army

• Introduction: Cognitive Biases

• Biases & Intelligence Failures

• Judgment & Decision Biases

• Biases in…

o Research

o Analysis

o Decision-Making

• Identifying Biases

• Managing Biases



© The New Yorker Collection 1994 Mick Stevens from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.

I don’t know how it started, either. All I know is that it’s a part of our corporate culture.”

Cognitive Biases

Lies, damned lies, statistics… and biases!


BIASES

PREJUDICES

CONTEXTUAL

BIASES

STATISTICAL

BIASES

COGNITIVE

BIASES

Academic

Cultural

Experimental

Media

Decision/

Behavioral

Social

Memory

Cognitive Biases


• Unconscious systematic pattern in judgement that is inconsistent with rationality.What?

• Everyone!Who?

• AnywhereWhere?

• Anytime…especially under stressWhen?

• Evolution & survivalWhy?

• Economics, health, marketing, advertising, sales, intelligence & decision-makingSignificance?

Biases & Intelligence Failures

• Garbage in…and cognitive bias?

• Unaware…and cognitive bias?

• Information overload…and cognitive bias?

• Missed signals…and cognitive bias?

• Missed opportunities…and cognitive bias?

• Intuition…or cognitive bias?

• Stupid decision…or cognitive bias?


Significance?

Judgment & Decision Biases


Ambiguity Effect Clustering Illusion

Anchoring Confirmation Bias

Attentional Bias Congruence Bias

Automation Bias Conjunction Fallacy

Availability Heuristic/Cascade Decoy Effect

Backfire Effect Endowment Effect

Base Rate Fallacy Expectation Bias

Belief Bias Focusing Effect

Bias Blind Spot Framing Effect

Choice-Supportive Bias Fundamental Attribution Error



Halo Effect Mere Exposure Effect

Hindsight Bias Negativity Effect

Hyperbolic Discounting Neglect of Probability

IKEA Effect Normalcy Bias

Illusion of Control Not Invented Here

Illusion of Truth Effect Omission Bias

Illusion of Validity Optimism Bias

Illusory Correlation Ostrich Effect

Information Bias Outcome Bias

Loss Aversion Overconfidence Effect



Parkinson’s Law of Triviality Risk Compensation

Pessimism Bias Selective Perception

Planning Fallacy Semmelweis Reflex

Pro-Innovation Bias Status Quo Bias

Pseudocertainty Effect Stereotyping

Reactance Subadditivity Effect

Reactive Devaluation Subjective Validation

Recency Illusion Sunk Cost Fallacy

Representativeness Heuristic Zero-Risk Bias

Rhyme as Reason Effect Zero-Sum Heuristic

Etc…

Our Common Tendencies


Loss aversion

Tendency toward status quo

Tendency to discount the future

Tendency to revise memories

Tendency to minimize cognitive dissonance

Complex decisions > path of least resistance

Dominance of System 1 & “want” self

Naïv

e R

ealism

Common Influencers


Naïv

e R

ealism

Anchoring

Saliency

Framing

Choice architecture

Priming


How much are those?

© 2007 Leo Cullum from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.

Biases in Research


Anchoring Test assumption/approach

Illusion of Validity Be mindful of “ROI”

Information Bias Be mindful of “ROI”

Recency Illusion Systematic scanning

Belief Bias What if?

Confirmation Bias Alternative hypotheses

Satisficing Mind the gaps

IKEA Effect Don’t fall in love

Biases in Analysis


Availability Heuristic/Cascade

Step back & challenge

Expectation Bias Alternative hypotheses

Focusing EffectLandscape, linchpins, &

drivers

Framing EffectAlternative sources &

frameworks

Illusion of Truth Effect

Find evidence & challenge

Mere Exposure Effect

Awareness & diversify

Representativeness Heuristic

Drivers & conditions

Semmelweis Reflex

Hold nothing sacred

Biases in Decision-Making


GroupthinkAlternative scenarios &

hypotheses

Hyperbolic Discounting

Scenarios, benchmark, & impact

Not Invented HereCautionary tales,

benchmark, & impact

Optimism Bias Contrarian approach

Ostrich EffectCautionary tales,

benchmark, & impact

Overconfidence Effect

Alternative perspectives

Pessimism Bias Contrarian approach

Status Quo Bias Scenarios & war games

Identifying Biases: Indicators


Organizational drivers

Management Style

Organizational/job function

Education & training

Personality traits

Media consumption

Approach to socio-political issues

Decision process

Habits

o Expectations?

o Cycles?

o Health

o Assumptions?

o Culture?

o Myths

o Politics?

o Taboos?

o Bonuses?

o Ethical practices?

Identifying Biases: Your Own


• What drives you?

• What are your work & decision patterns?

• Could you feel indebted? Too eager to impress?

• Are you stressed?

• Do you take time to think, ask, listen?

• Do you know what you know…and don’t know?

• Do you challenge your intuition?

• Do you conduct a debrief & examine your efforts?

• Do you seek evidence?

• Consider various options & paths?

• Do you take time to reconsider?

Identifying Biases: Your Team


• Does your team usually share the same views & conclusions?

• Do you have devil’s advocates & support him/her?

• Do you take time to meet?

• Do you perform bias exercises as a team?

• Have you created a culture & practice of learning?

• Does your team systematically look for indicators & changes?

• Do you routinely test hypotheses & consider alternatives?

• Have you developed a diverse stable of outside experts?

• Do you challenge your intuition?

Identifying Biases: Your Projects


• Do you conduct a formal needs assessment?

• Do you test your users’ questions & assumptions?

Are you – and they – asking the right questions?

• Do you talk with your users about competitive

issues outside the project context?

• Do you feel very protective of your results?

• Have you ever pivoted in the midst of a project?

• Have you ever scrapped a project?

• Did/would you feel comfortable doing so?

• Do you consider your products final or a part of a

continuum?


“We made a miscalculation, but it’s consistent with our over-all strategy.”

© The New Yorker Collection 2003 Robert Weber from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.

Managing Biases


PRINCIPLES

ID & challenge assumptions.

Seek alternatives: hypotheses, scenarios, sources,

frameworks.

Practice due diligence.

No sacred cows.

Look beyond the obvious or convenient.

Look externally.

Learn from others’ mistakes.

Keep intelligence continuous & systematic.

Foster a supportive & fear-free environment.

Work at maintaining ethics.

Managing Biases


Fox

Pluralistic Ideas

Uncertainty

Flexible & integrative

Dynamic inputs

Inductive

Higher predictive accuracy rate

Hedgehog

Governing Principle

Certainty & confidence

Simple solutions

Low, fixed inputs

Deductive

Tendency toward over-prediction

VS

Managing Biases


• Awareness

o Introduce bias awareness & its significance

o Cultivate executive support & participation

o Cultivate functional support & participation

o Circulate articles & research to spark discussions

o Associate biases with company priorities

o Keep awareness efforts salient!

Managing Biases


• Facilitation

o Employ questionnaires

o Review past projects

o Project debriefs

o ID common & known biases for project checklist

o Create external-focus

o Employ models & tools

o Initiate & lead discussions & healthy debates

o Practice System 1 thinking during analysis & at decision points

o Avoid judgments

o Gamify!

Biases, Influence, & Persuasion


Anchoring

Saliency

Framing

Choice architecture

Priming

Inte

rest

Gro

ups

Inte

llig

ence

Test Your Implicit Biases

* Project Implicit:

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/index.jsp

* Implicit Association Tests:

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/takeatest.html


https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/index.jsp

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/takeatest.html


Thank God for competition. When

our competitors upset our plans or

outdo our designs, they open

infinite possibilities of our own

work to us.

-- Gil Atkinson, inventor & businessman

Your Stories & Questions?


“In two minds”

“Take a shotgun approach”

“Stubborn as a mule”

“Against one’s better judgment”

“Stand one’s ground”

Cynthia Cheng Correia


Cynthia helps professionals & organizations establish &

enhance their competitive & strategic intelligence capabilities through

training, improving processes and practices, & applying effective tools.

She has helped corporate information centers & marketing units expand

into competitive intelligence functions, organizations maximize their

knowledge bases for intelligence applications, & practitioners on how to

conduct expert-level intelligence research and intelligence practices.

She is a frequent speaker & has appeared in leading publications,

including Super Searchers on Competitive Intelligence, The New York

Times, Information Outlook, & The National Law Journal. A recipient

of SCIP’s 2011 Catalyst & 2012 WISE Faculty of the Year awards, Cynthia

will be inducted as a Competitive Intelligence Fellow in 2015. She is

adjunct instructor at Simmons College, SLIS, & has held a number of

leadership positions in the CI community. She authored the “In the Know

Column” for Competitive Intelligence Magazine & she was founding

Editor of Intelligence Insights.

Knowledge into Action SM

877.400.0883

[email protected]

www.knowledgeinform.com

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Track C Session: Managing Research and Intelligence...

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