Track 1: Mobility & Accessibility Planning

Robert Cervero, Elizabeth Deakin, Chris Cherry, Jennie Day

Associates: Pan Haixiao (Tongji University);

Ronaldo Balassiano (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)

Track 1: Years 1-2 (Case Contexts)Mobility Benefits of Accessibility PlanningMobility Benefits of Accessibility Planning

• Transit Oriented Development: SAN DIEGO – Job Access: Disparities among Modal Options– Channeling Job & Housing Development to Transit-Served Areas

• Mixed Uses & Jobs-Housing Balance: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA– Which form of Smart Growth yields biggest VMT reduction?

• Advancing Accessibility Planning in the Developing World– Bogotá, Colombia: Metrovivienda: “bundling” Transport & Housing– Beijing & Shanghai China: Deconcentration: Effects of Built

Environment & TOD on travel

Isochronic Measure of Job Accessibility via Isochronic Measure of Job Accessibility via Auto-HighwayAuto-Highway:: Mission Valley, 2000 Mission Valley, 2000

#< 15 min. 383,600

0-30 min. 731,900

0-45 min. 1,175,500

0-60 min. 1,374,300

Number of Jobs that can be reached viaNumber of Jobs that can be reached viaAuto-Highway during P.M. Peak HourAuto-Highway during P.M. Peak Hour

SAN DIEGOCOUNTY

#

Number of Jobs that can be reached viaTransit during P.M. Peak Hour

Isochronic Measure of Job Accessibility via Isochronic Measure of Job Accessibility via Public TransitPublic Transit: : Mission Valley, 2000 Mission Valley, 2000

SAN DIEGOCOUNTY

#0-30 min. 173,700

< 15 min. 96,100

0-45 min. 280,400

0-60 min. 306,600

Note: Grayrepresentsno transit servicesIsochronic Measure of Isochronic Measure of

Job Accessibility Job Accessibility via via Public TransitPublic Transit: :

Mission Valley, 2000 Mission Valley, 2000

Number of Jobs that can be Number of Jobs that can be reached via Transit reached via Transit

during P.M. Peak Hourduring P.M. Peak Hour

SAN DIEGOCOUNTY

Time

Isochrone A.I. Auto A.I. Transit

Accessibility Advantage:

Auto to Transit

< 15

Min. 380,000 75,000 5.13

15-30

Min. 735,000 170,000 4.32

30-45

Min. 1,180,000 280,000 4.21

45-60

Min. 1,375,000 340,000 4.04

Automobility’s Accessibility Advantage: Automobility’s Accessibility Advantage: San Diego 2000San Diego 2000

Time

Isochrone

Accessibility AdvantageAccessibility Advantage Auto to Transit

2030

Trend-line

Projections

2030

Smart Growth/TOD

Projections

< 15

Min. 5.46 1.67

15-30

Min. 6.70 1.75

30-45

Min. 7.65 1.79

45-60

Min. 7.95 1.94

Accessibility Planning as Land-Use Mixing Accessibility Planning as Land-Use Mixing

The CrossingsMixed-Use Community

Linking Housing to Jobs vs. Retail/ServicesLinking Housing to Jobs vs. Retail/Services

Regional Jobs-Housing Regional Jobs-Housing

BalanceBalance Neighborhood/Community-ScaleNeighborhood/Community-Scale

Mixed Uses: Mixed Uses: New Urbanism New Urbanism

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Occupationally Matched Jobs within 4 Miles (quartiles)

< 8,000

8,000 - 18,000

18,000 - 31,000

> 31,000

5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Miles

N

Napa

Sonoma

Solano

MarinContra Costa

Alameda

San Mateo

Santa Clara

San Francisco

#

#

#

#

Jobs Accessibility Jobs Accessibility Index Index (OM)(OM) = =# of jobs in

employed-resident’soccupation (exec/prof;

support/service; blue collar)

< 4 miles

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Retail/Service Jobs within 4 Miles (quartiles)

< 19,000

19,000 - 48,000

48,000 - 95,000

> 95,000

5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Miles

N

Napa

Sonoma

Solano

MarinContra Costa

Alameda

San Mateo

Santa Clara

San Francisco

#

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Retail-Service Retail-Service Accessibility Accessibility

Index =Index =# of retail-service

jobs < 4 miles of residence

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), LN

Coeff. Std. Err. Prob. Coeff. Std. Err. Prob.

Job Accessibility: No. of jobs in person’s occupation < 4 miles of residence, LN -0.338 0.013 .000 -- -- --

Job Accessibility: Total No. of jobs (all occupations) < 4 miles of residence, LN -- -- -- -0.306 0.011 .000

Motor vehicles per licensed driver, LN 1.101 0.047 .000 1.106 0.047 .000

Driver's License (0-1) 2.467 0.099 .000 2.488 0.099 .000

Male (0-1) 0.061 0.030 .041 0.090 0.030 .003

Full-time Student (0-1) -1.023 0.305 .001 -0.985 0.305 .001

Private Sector Job (0-1) 0.247 0.025 .000 0.233 0.024 .001

Executive/Professional Employment (0-1) 0.317 0.037 .000 0.126 0.036 .082

Employee Flex-Time Privileges (0-1) 0.145 0.032 .000 0.152 0.032 .000

Constant 3.234 0.160 .000 3.286 0.163 .000

Summary Statistics:

F statistics (prob.) 544.23 (.000) 344.13 (.000)

R2 .188 .188

Number of Cases 16,503 16,503

Job-Accessibility Job-Accessibility (occupation-adj.)

&& Work-Tour VMT Work-Tour VMT

Control Variables

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), LN

Coeff. Std. Err. Prob.

Retail-Service Accessibility: No. of retail and service jobs < 4 miles of residence, LN -0.168 0.008 .000

Motor vehicles per licensed driver, LN 0.211 0.040 .000

Driver's License (0-1) 0.669 0.071 .000

Personal Income > $40,000 per year (0-1) 0.012 0.007 .070

Age (years), LN 0.218 0.034 .000

Latino (0-1) -0.151 0.062 .015

Male (0-1) -0.080 0.025 .002

Constant 2.215 0.174 .000

Summary Statistics:

F statistics (prob.) 629.44 (.000)

R2 .289

Number of Cases 12,405

Retail/Service AccessibilityRetail/Service Accessibility&& VMT (Shop, Services, Eating) VMT (Shop, Services, Eating)

Elasticities Elasticities (absolute values)(absolute values)

Daily VMT of Work Trips (Daily VMT of Work Trips (function offunction of Job-AccessJob-Access) ) Daily VMT of Shop/Service Trips (Daily VMT of Shop/Service Trips (function offunction of Retail-Service AccessRetail-Service Access) )

0.338

0.168

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Job Access

Retail-ServiceAccess

Elasticity of VMT as Function of Accessibility

Prop. total VMT * Elasticity of Work VMT as functionAdvantageAdvantage = for work purpose of job-accessibility index_____________

IndexIndex JHBJHB Prop. total VMT for * Elasticity of Shop-Service VMT as(VMT) shop-service purpose function of retail-service accessibility index

AIAIJHBJHB (VMT) = [(.367) * (-.338)] / [(.428) * (-.168)]

= 1.7251.725

…biggest “bang for the buck” is jobs-housing balance combined with retail/services near residences or jobs … for efficient chaining of shop & work related trips

Relative Advantage (Jobs-Housing Balance)Relative Advantage (Jobs-Housing Balance)

Findings in ContextFindings in Context

• Accessibility increases # of Tours & Links per Tour (Crane hypothesis)

• Because lengths of tours & links are shorter, VMT & VHT decline (consistent

with Krizek’s findings in Puget Sound)

• Net impacts of Balance & MXD: Reduction in Travel Consumption

INFORMAL SETTLEMENTSINFORMAL SETTLEMENTS

• Between 1961 & 2001, 6500 Hectares of land were illegally occuppied

• 18% of urban land consumed • 22% of the population lived in informal

settlements in 2000• Average daily commute time for residents of

Bogotá’s informal housing > 2 ½ hours

• Between 1961 & 2001, 6500 Hectares of land were illegally occuppied

• 18% of urban land consumed • 22% of the population lived in informal

settlements in 2000• Average daily commute time for residents of

Bogotá’s informal housing > 2 ½ hours

Informal Housing in BogotInformal Housing in Bogotáá

EXPERIENCIA RECIENTE DE PLANEACIÓN EN BOGOTÁ

TransMilenio Corridors & Metrovivienda Projects

Metrovivienda:Metrovivienda: Bundling low-cost housing & low-cost transport; Metrovivienda projects sited near planned TransMilenio lines

Work Trip Origins, 2002

Work Trip Destinations, 2002

Estimated Job-Access Benefits of MetroviviendaEstimated Job-Access Benefits of MetroviviendaAccess to Low-Skilled Jobs via Transit within 1 Hour Access to Low-Skilled Jobs via Transit within 1 Hour Rose by Factor of 2.3 for Metrovivienda Residents; Rose by Factor of 2.3 for Metrovivienda Residents;

Bigger benefit – reduced commuting costsBigger benefit – reduced commuting costs

Advancing AccessibilityAdvancing AccessibilityPlanning in ChinaPlanning in China

• To relieve some of the pressure on the city center, Beijing has built a light rail train line to the urban periphery to spur development. Up to 400,000 new housing units are being developed around three transit stations.

Current Mode to WorkWalk4%

Bicycle5%

Public Bus25%

Company Bus10%Taxi

2%

Private Car16%

Subway37%

Motorcycle<1%

E-Bicycle1%

IR

CC

ORNon-TOD

TOD

Previous Mode to Work

Walk, 16.17%

Bicycle, 27.72%

Public Bus, 31.02%

Company Bus, 6.93%

Taxi, 0.66%

Private Car, 6.93%

Motorcyle, 0.00%

E-Bicycle, 0.33%

Subway, 4.95%

• Intercept survey of 303 residents at 4 suburban districts, August 2005• Previous commute time = 38 min.; Current commute time = 52 min

BeijingBeijing: Built Environments Matter: Built Environments Matter

Relocation, TOD, and Travel Behavior

Inner Ring

Outer Ring

Non-TOD

Rail Line

TOD

Hypotheses:

Movers from the central city to a suburban locales:* Increase VKT per capita * Higher increases for non-TOD than TOD locales* Higher transit mode splits (mainly for work trips) for TOD residences * Changes in vehicle ownership status is an important mediating variable.

The Survey – Current and Retrospective Questions On…

Mode, O/D, Travel Time and Cost For Most Recent

• Commute trip

• Supermarket shopping trip

• City-center shopping trip

• Social trip

• Personal business trip (banking, haircut, etc.)

Household Information

• Vehicles and travel modes available

• Number of family members, working adults

• Income

• Rent/own status.

Housing and Travel-Cost Information

• Monthly transit and auto-relatedcosts (parking, petrol, etc.)

• Apartment size

• Tenancy

• Monthly housing costs

Relocation Status and Housing Satisfaction

• Choice or relocated mover

• Apartment, neighborhood, and travel satisfaction relative to previous location.