Towards Sustainable Universal Access

Siven Naidoo

Meeting of the Technical Group and the Sherpas of the Secretary-General’s High-level Group On Sustainable Energy for All

18th November 2011OFID HeadquartersVienna, Austria

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Overview

• Personal Perspective

– Energy Efficiency 2008,

– Urbanisation and shack-dwellings,

– Poverty and Electropreneurship,

• Energy Access and Climate Resilience

• Energy Access and Adaptation and Mitigation

• South Africa’s IRP 2010 – 2030

• Water

• Electrification

• Conclusions

2

Urbanisation and consequences

3

Energy Access Builds Climate Resilience

4

Job creation – directly and indirectly

SMME development and economic growth

Air quality improvement – local and indoor – replacement of coal and wood

Improvement in Education and skills levels

Access to modern communications systems

Improved security

Safety – paraffin burns and poisoning

Health care through lighting, refrigeration, communications

The “external” benefits far exceed the costs

Access, mitigation and adaptation – the sustainability nexus

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• The negative impacts of Climate Change will be experienced no matter how successful mitigation actions are

• African nations are the most vulnerable to these impacts

• The improvement of the resilience of energy systems is essential to Adaptation

• The development of advanced infrastructure improves resilience

• Energy access improves resilience

• Adaptation and mitigation are two sides of the same coin – especially for Africa

Potential Energy Future – 2030!

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CO

NG

O

GABON

KENYABURUNDI

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

MA

LAW

I

TANZANIA

ANGOLA

BOTSWANA

DR CONGO

NAMIBIA

ZIMBABWE

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHOSWAZILAND

HYDRO

GASG

AS

COAL

GEO-THERMAL

WIND

SUPER GRID

NUCLEAR

WIND

WIND

The Southern

African

Development

Community

(SADC) region

offers significant

avenues for growth

and cleaner

sources of power

Significant

demand growth

and constrained

capacity represent

an investment

opportunity SOLAR

Percentage energy mix (system grows from ~42GW to ~ 85GW)

23-04-2

1

7

Percentage of new build – (~43GW new capacity)

23-04-2

1

8

Specific Challenge: Water Dry cooling - Kendal and Matimba Power Stations(each 6 x 665 MW)

9

Total water usage is decreasing until 2030, and water-usage intensity is reduced by ~60%

10

Water consumption in billion liters p.a.

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Base Case

Revised Balanced Scenario

Policy-Adjusted IRP

1,3 l/kWh 0,52 l/kWh0,94 l/kWh

-60%

Water-usage intensity of Policy-Adjusted IRP

Specific Challenge: Access to EnergyElectrification in South Africa

• Added ~4.5 million households to the grid since 1994 – the majority using prepayment technology

• Electrification has significantly increased from 1994 to today:

– Nationally from 30% to 83% in Urban areas

– Rural electrification from 12% to 57%

– Limited success with stand alone solar home systems

– Focus on schools and clinics

• Funded initially through the electricity tariff, then from the fiscus

• Protection for the poor through Free Basic Electricity

• Still a significant backlog of 2.5m – 3m households without access to electricity – cost of $5 – 7bn

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Conclusions

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• Energy Access is a key enabler of sustainable economic growth and development (noting security of supply, efficient production and delivery and efficient end-use)

• There are opportunities for Energy Access, adaptation and mitigation to complement one another

• Major low carbon energy access opportunities exist in Africa• All of the above strongly justify the use of development, carbon

and adaptation funds to finance key energy access infrastructure.• Public and private sector funds can be blended and leveraged to

effect sustainable energy access globally• Specific Eskom and South African experiences, for example, the

Accelerated Electrification Programme, the CFL rollout and the SWH Programme may have potential to be replicated (perhaps optimised) and implemented in partnership elsewhere.

Message from Sherpa – Dr Steve Lennon

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• I think we need to emphasise the need for a national electrification plan which identifies the status quo, quantifies the gap to universal access, then details how that gap will be closed. This must include major infrastructure (ie Tx and Dx) as well as all supply side options – not just renewables. Then it needs to include a roll out plan with indicative costs and sources of funding. For very poor countries a lot of the basic infrastructure – supply and delivery – will need very soft money – mainly grants.

• The plan also needs to include institutional capacity required – what, where, who.

• I suggest the team work on a typical template for such a plan with the objective being for that plan being sufficiently detailed for it to act as a funding prospectus to DFIs, banks and the private sector.

Thank you

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