Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS

Solar Rays

Generate

Control

NaturalReproduction

Heat

Mainly petroleum as the stock

Waste

Resources

Information Flow

Redirection ofEnergy Flow

Civilization

Board Workshop, WIDE Camp 2011 Spring

Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age ∼

Kenji Saito

Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio [email protected]

Twitter: ks91020

Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.1/37

“You never change things by fighting the existingreality. To change something, build a new model thatmakes the existing model obsolete”

— Buckminster Fuller


Brief History of Near Past and Future

(from an imaginary japanimation“Industrial Society Girl Madoka ⋆ Magica”)

Episode 1 “Some petroleum may have been left. . .”

Episode 2 “Economic growth is a lot of fun”

Episode 3 “I am no longer afraid of peak oil”

Episode 4 “Did you know peal coal and peak uranium?”

Episode 5 “No way we can live with 1.4kW per capita”

Episode 6 “This is absolutely wrong”

Episode 7 “Can you face the next civilization?”


Part I: Rasing Questions

Pale Blue Dot


Grasping Problems

Something stays invisible if you dive into theproblems

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.”

(Fuller)

You have to push the problems away when you thinkabout them

If you keep distance with the problems and express them

in an appropriate manner, a solution will present itself


Grasping Problems

Something stays invisible if you dive into theproblems

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.”

(Fuller)

You have to push the problems away when you thinkabout them

If you keep distance with the problems and express them

in an appropriate manner, a solution will present itself

Today, Earth has problems

How far do we have to push the problems away?


How about “as far as the orbit of Saturn”?


PALE BLUE DOT

Photograph by the

suggestion by Carl Sagan

In February 1990, Voyager

1 looked back Earth when

it left the ecliptic plane of

the solar system

Where’s Earth?


PALE BLUE DOT

WE ARE HERE

Photograph by the

suggestion by Carl Sagan

In February 1990, Voyager

1 looked back Earth when

it left the ecliptic plane of

the solar system

Where’s Earth?


PALE BLUE DOT

WE ARE HERE

Speech by Sagan

“On it, everyone you love,

everyone you know,

everyone you ever heard

of, every human being who

ever was, lived out their

lives”

YouTube videohttp://bit.ly/9PApWV(full speech)


http://bit.ly/9PApWV

Photograph of Earth Taken by Cassini, 2006



Our Spaceship EARTH



Our Spaceship EARTH

What are the sources of energy that enable us to live on the

spaceship Earth?


Energy, Economy, Environment


Unit System Review

1J (joule) = 1Ws (about 2.78 × 10−7kWh)Unit of energy, work or heat

Work done in applying force of 1N through a distance of 1m1kg · m2

· s−2

Work done when a small apple falls for 1m on Earth

1kJ amounts to 1 search at Google, 1MJ melts 3kg of ice

1W (watt) = 1J/sUnit of power or rate of energy conversion

A human body consumes about 100W(1 Google search in 10 seconds)

Operation Yashima (TV version) required 160GW(in reality, close to 300GW)


To Grasp the Scale

Energy accumulation by phytoplankton:About 62.7TWA study claims that its 1%, 630GW, is used by fishand marine mammals to stir the oceanic water toaffect the climate on Earth

Energy accumulation by whole plants:About 120TW?About 50% of oxygen is generated byphytoplankton


Energy Budget of Earth



174PW

The whole energy enteringEarth’s atmosphere is about174PW



174PW


Tidal:about 3TW/0.002%



174PW



Geothermal:about 23TW/0.013%



174PW




Fossil fuel:about 13TW/0.007%



174PW





Solar radiation:about 174PW/100%



174PW 174PW





Solar radiation:about 174PW/100%

30% is immediately reflected,70% is absorbed and thenreradiated as infrared


The Whole Picture of Civilization

Solar Energy

Humanosphere

Natural Reproduction

Heat

Mostly oil as its stock in the 20th cent.


Civilization consumes about12.5∼18TW (huge)

U.S.: about 3.4TW(11kW/capita)Japan: about 700GW(5.5kW/capita)



Solar Energy

Humanosphere


Heat





From Holocene toAnthropocene



Solar Energy

Humanosphere

GenerateNatural Reproduction

Heat


Information Flow





We control energy flow tomake information flow



Solar Energy

Humanosphere

Generate

Control


Heat


Information Flow






That information flow controlsenergy flow

Grandeur waste and violencecaused by monetary economy



Solar Energy

Humanosphere

Generate

Control


Heat


Information Flow






That information flow controlsenergy flow

Grandeur waste and violencecaused by monetary economy

That wouldn’t last long


Peak Oil/Coal/Uranium. . .

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

Peak OilPoint of time when the worldproduction of oil peaks, afterwhich it enters terminal decline

Economy must declineafterward

We have already enteredpeak oil age

IEA has announced thatproduction of crude oil hasprobably peaked in 2006

In the first half of this century,all major energy resourceswill hit their production peaks

Civilization today will come toan end before we retire


http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

The Big Picture

Solar Energy

Humanosphere

Generate

Control


Heat


Information Flow


All problems of energy, economy and environment are caused byhow we design information flow, in particular, flow of money


Part II: Proposing a Solution

Earth-Scale Operating System


Viewpoint Towards the Essence of Problems and Solution

To make a sustainable civilization, we need tochange our society to consume less energy




Something is needed that coordinates our activitiesto share resources and energy in a wastelessmanner




Something is needed that coordinates our activitiesto share resources and energy in a wastelessmanner

An operating system!

An OS for a computing system is a basic software that

coordinates use of resources on computers

Likewise, with an OS to coordinate use of resource and

energy in the scale of Earth, our next civilization may

become able to sustain low level of energy consumption


An operating system (OS) for the life-support system of thespaceship Earth to function

Non-violence and peaceful resistance against the nature


Earth-Scale OS

Present

Hardware

Applications

Users

OS

Human

Economy

Financial System

Human

Human Economy

Earth-Scale OS

Earth and BiodiversityEarth and Biodiversity

Near Future

Exploitation

Poor People, Nature, Life Forms and Children

Benefitsin Return

Marketing andInnovation


Goal Depicted as a Science Fiction

“NEO IN WONDERLAND —A Tale of Money ThatChanged Our Future”

Genre:“Sci-Fi Monetary Fantasy”

Technology to entirelychange monetary system

Which creates a drama

Free English version

http://grsj.jp/neo.pdf(CC-BY-SA 3.0)

This is a plan


http://grsj.jp/neo.pdf

Related Work

Sustainable computing

Rather is a field related to computing’s impact on the

environmentInstead, Earth-Scale OS pursues computing’scontributions to sustainability of societies

Moreover, it is designed not only as a computing system but also as asocietal system

Micro or smart grid

System to accommodate electricity

Earth-Scale OS deals with accommodation and sharing

of resources and energy on Earth in general

Platforms for Goodness (Jun Mural et.al.; proposal from G1 Summit)

A service infrastructure of Earth-Scale OSTowards Realization of Earth-Scale OS ∼ Information Infrastructure for Post-Peak Oil/Coal Age – p.22/37

Part III: Investigation

Let’s think about it together


What is the Goal of Lowering Energy Consumption?

Let a necessary and sufficient rate of energyconsumption for human beings to sustain civilizationbe 10TW

This might not be low enough, but quite lower than

today’s rate

Dividing this value by the world population today, weobtain the energy budget per capita


What is the Goal of Lowering Energy Consumption?

Let a necessary and sufficient rate of energyconsumption for human beings to sustain civilizationbe 10TW

This might not be low enough, but quite lower than

today’s rate

Dividing this value by the world population today, weobtain the energy budget per capita

Which is about 1.4kW


Related Work – 2000-Watt Society (Switzerland)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society

Movement to lower energy consumption in industrialcountries down to 2kW per capita by 2050

The value must have been obtained by dividingtoday’s consumption by the world population

Switzerland is a 5kW society today, was a 2kWsociety in 1960s


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society

What does 1.4kW per Capita Mean to US?

Today, Japan’s energy consumption is about 700GW

About 5.5kW per capita

To realize a 1.4kW society, we need to reduce energyconsumption down to 1

4

At the same time, if we focus on householdsituations, many houses may have already beenconsuming under 1.4kW per person

Rather, we need to reduce energy consumption insocial infrastructure, including transportation andother industries

What can be automated, and what can be social rules?


Requirements for Earth-Scale OS

1. Accounting of material/energy circulation andmatching demands with supplies

2. Large-scale distributed storage for abstracting onnetworks all resources on Earth

3. Publicness as a social infrastructure

4. Resilience to be highly reliable

5. Emergence for being ready for additional resourcemanagements

6. Open source for sharing and maintainingknowledge

7. Mechanisms to act on human rules includingchanging laws


Principles

Earth-Scale OS should be based on P2P (Peer-to-Peer)technologies

P2P does away with central controls, making it possible toenhance the scale of wanted services without preparingdedicated infrastructure

P2P is expected to contribute to Earth-Scale OS’srealization of requirements 3∼5, and to realize requirements1∼2 with high reliability

Propel local-production, local-consumption P2P, astrengthened concept of P2P

In addition to technological design decisions, a framework is

needed for supporting necessary policy proposals to occur

from Earth-Scale OS to realize requirement 7


Functions and Layers

Identification

Location,Routing and

Sensing

Reputation

Rendezvous

Exchange

Base System

Extension

Shell

- Locating entities and their copies

- Tracking entities and their copies

- Accessing, messaging and driving entities

- Sensing entities

- Searching nearby entities

- User interfaces

- Programming with glue-languages

- Browsing nearby entities

- Matching demands and supplies

- Accounting and accommodating

- Electronizing drafts in real terms used in Kamakura-era

- Loose identification with names and IDs

- Sustaining entities

- Producers/products

- Grading entities

- Assuring correctness

- Visualizing reputations

ElectronicDrafts


Summary So Far

Civilization today will come to an end before we retireResources and energy will never be depleted, butbe difficult to useForced increase in consumption will degradebiodiversity and other environmental well-beings

Towards next civilization that is sustainable, pursuingnon-violence and peaceful resistance against thenature, utilizing energy budget from the Sun

Earth-Scale OS as one of the platformsPart of it is a new monetary system

Which may protect ourselves from incomingconfusions


Is it possible?


“. . .we may discover how it may be accomplished byour own directly-seized initiative, undertaken andsustained without any further authority than that ofour function in universe, where the most ideal is themost realistically practical.”

— Buckminster Fuller


Part IV: Workshop

Let’s make it together


Platforms for Goodness

Jun Murai et. al.; a proposal from G1 Summit

Effort to make sensory information from many layersof (privately owned) infrastructures publicly availableas platforms to host various applications

Weathernews (climate prediction with wisdom of crowd)

Internet Cars

Observation of human movements by NTT docomo

Sensory information from Kuroneko Yamato

. . . and so on

Fights against regulations


Efforts by Weathernews

Predict climates by analyzing reports from payingmembers

“In conventional weather forecasts, we haveout-sourced information that is coherent to ourlives. . . We would like ourselves to sense changessurrounding our bodies by ourselves”

“We need platforms made out of connected cloudsthat enable us to decide by ourselves. . . Thingswould go wrong when we start to think that onesingle complete platform is needed”

— Tomohiro Ishibashi, Director, Weathernews


To Map Weathernews’ Efforts on Functions and Layers

Identification

Location,Routing and

Sensing

Reputation

Rendezvous

Exchange

Base System

Extension

Shell

- Locating entities and their copies

- Tracking entities and their copies

- Accessing, messaging and driving entities

- Sensing entities

- Searching nearby entities

- User interfaces

- Programming with glue-languages

- Browsing nearby entities

- Matching demands and supplies

- Accounting and accommodating

- Electronizing drafts in real terms used in Kamakura-era

- Loose identification with names and IDs

- Sustaining entities

- Producers/products

- Grading entities

- Assuring correctness

- Visualizing reputations

ElectronicDrafts


Workshop Subjects

1) Design a platform to collect climate informationthat everyone sees, hears and feels individually

2) Connect the inputs from the platform to thefollowing outputs

a) Visualization of Earthly environmentb) Mitigation of natural disastersc) Control of energy


Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS

Technology

Transcript of Towards Realization of Earth-Scale OS