Towards Ecomodernity: The Anatomy

of Green Transition

Presentation at Sustainable energy Systems 2050

Stockholm 12 September 2013

by

Professor Atle Midttun

atle.midttun@bi.no

1

The Story of Limitlessness

2

The American Story of

Limitlessness

3

The Story of Limits to Growth

4

Two Versions of

Limits to Growth

5

Towards Ecomodernity: A Story

of Transcendence

6

Green Growth in Renewables

7

From Kåberger 2012

Eco-Efficiency

8

Passive houses

Resoruce Recycling

9

Wood Metals

Culture and Experience

Economy

10

GREEN TRANSITION: AN

INNOVATION PERSPECTIVE

11

Marginalistic vs Transformative/innovation

Perspectives

Source: OECD

Source: IEA –

World Energy Outlook 2012

IEA Scenarios

GHG emissions by regions:

1970-2005+

Technology Push: Green Transition

Driven by Big Science

13

Nuclear

NASA - Solar

Geoengineering

CCS

Demand Pull: Green Transition Driven

by Consumption

14

Green

Consu

mption

Green

Niche

markets

Green

Politically

Constructed

markets

The Coupling Model: Green Transition

Driven by Complex Interplay

15

From Rothwell 1994

Bridging Radical and

Incremental Innovation

16

Electric Care Radical or Incremental Innovation?

17

From Geels

20??

The Battle of Modernities

18

The system of Innovation Model

Bringing in Public Policy

19

Green Transition and the

Kantian RuleAct only according to that

maxim whereby you can, at

the same time, will that it

should become a universal

law

(Foundations of the Metaphysics

of Morals 1785)

Acutely important in the age

of the Antroposcene

20

Greening Policies

Road Map 2050

•By 2050: cut emissions to

80% below 1990 levels

Road Map 2050

•achieve a reduction of

GHG emissions by 80 %

Remix – 100%

renewable electricity is

achievable by 2050

Energiewende…

CO2 emission per unit

of GDP will be 40-45 percent

lower in 2020 than in 2005

Increase the share of renewable

energy in its energy mix to 15

percent by 2020.

Experiments with circular

economies

•Germany, Japan and China are

trying out Circular economies

21

22

Electric Technologies in EU 1980-1995

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

Cumulative Electricity Production (TWh)

Co

st

of

Ele

ctr

icity (

EC

U(1

99

0)/

kW

h)

Photovoltaics

Electricity from

Biomass

Supercritical Coal

NGCC

Wind Power - Average

Wind Power - Best

Performance

1985

1995

1980

1995

The Dynamics of

Experience/

Technology

Learning

23

Two IEA Scenarios

Technology Path with Fossil Fuels, Nuclear and Wind

hydroconv.coal

conv.gas

conv.oil

nuclear

adv.coal

ngcc

wind

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

TWh

Total system cost:

9117 billion US$

• Energy projections based on

least cost solutions going

forward

• Scenario made by IEA 1997

• Energy projections based on

least cost solutions going

forward

• Scenario made by IEA 1997

Economics and Politics

50%

El-price

Price necessary

to drive

technology

Price acceptable

to majority

Electoral

Acceptance5%

A Relay Model of Green

Transition

25

TRANSITION ACROSS

CONTIENTAL DIVIDES

26

Green Transition on Three

Continents

27

Unapologetic about

growth

Greening must be

coupled to development

Options for leapfrogging

But poor infrastructure

Rapid growth with eco-

Efficiency focus

Environmental focus

Massive rollout of new

modern capital stock

Taking technological

Frontier posisions in

Many fields

Advanced technological and

Economic capacities

Greening through replacement

Vested interests and zero

sum games

Loose out in volumes to Asia

Technology Migration Across

Lead Markets

28

Lead markets &policy contextsI, II, III……..Volume

Time

Product

cycle

Sequential Lead Markets for PV

29

The Global Wind Race

30

http://www.chinafaqs.org/library/chinafaqs-renewable-energy-china-graphical-overview-2012

31

The presentation is ased on research from the CERES21 project:

www.CERES21.org

and on

«Towards Ecomodernity. The Anatomy of Green Transition»

Forthcomming on Routledge 2014, co-authored with Nina Witoszek