Towards Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Jamaica's Agricultural Sector:...

Towards Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Jamaica’s

Agriculture Sector: Overview and Insights

Kevon Rhiney, Michael Taylor, Arpita Mandal, Tannecia Stephenson, Jayaka Campbell, Jhannel Tomlinson, Lloyd Waller and Ministry of

Agriculture and Fisheries

Climate-smart Agriculture SymposiumKnutsford Court Hotel, Kingston Jamaica

Thursday July 16, 2015

MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SECTOR RESILIENCE AND CLOSING PLENARY

Project Aims

• provide blueprint defining transformations needed to meet the related challenges of climate change and food security

• Strategy will inform on how to:• utilize R&D to promote CSA techniques consistent with the National Food and

Nutrition Security and Climate Change Policies • sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes while adapting to the

risks posed by climate variability and change • transform agriculture extension services to be more responsive to climate

variability and change• integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies in new and existing sector

programmes • guide Government actions to support decision-making including: research and

development, infrastructure investments and catastrophic event response strategies for the sector

Project AimsApproachPreliminary ResultsRecommendationsNext Steps

Approach

Guiding Principles:• Engage stakeholders in analysis and definition of strategies and actions

(Participatory)• Use of available data and scientific information (Evidence-driven)

PHAS

E O

NE 1. Desk review

2. Climate risk analysis3. 1st round of consultations

PHAS

E TW

O 1. Climate risk analysis (future)2. 2nd round of consultations3. Cost benefit analysis

PHAS

E TH

REE

1. 3rd round of consultations2. Financial and M&E Planning

- Situation analysis, vulnerability assessment, identify key subsectors, preliminary strategies

- Synthesize and further develop strategies, prioritization of strategies

- Validation of prioritized strategies, action planning

Design:


Preliminary Results• Farming systems across Jamaica are particularly exposed and sensitive

to climate-induced shocks and stresses

• Timescale considerations• Short-term events: varies from year to year e.g. hurricanes, droughts,

floods and tropical storms• Medium-term events: may take several months or years to play out e.g.

ENSO and other oscillations • Long-term events: more profound changes in a region’s climate regime

(e.g. mean annual temperature), which may take place over century

• Vulnerability highly uneven and systemic


Preliminary Results• Key climate-related threats (short to medium term)

• Extreme Climate Events (Hurricanes, droughts, heavy rains etc.)• Climate Variability• Pest and Diseases

Extreme Events Farmers Affected

Crops(Ha)

Crops(Value J$)

Livestock(Value J$)

HURRICANESCharley – August 2004 986 792 181,721,225 3,747,400Ivan – September 2004 117,698 11,130 4,988,959,007 1,389,387,398Dennis – July 2005 6,700 610 224,259,000 52,388,460Wilma – October 2005 19,973 1,572 348,881,160 71,377,020Emily – August 2007 1,499 656 56,455,200 604,800Dean – August 2007 63,707 5,473 1,302,297,120 75,556,800DROUGHTS2005 14,269 2,058 524,005,1372008 70 79 41,966,370 787,200

Source: RADA


Preliminary Results• Key climate-related threats (long term)

• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events?• Changes in temperature and rainfall (Climate departure?)• Sea Level Rise

Source: CIAT 2008

CROP AVERAGECURRENT SUITABILITY

AVERAGE SUITABILTIYFOR 2030

AVERAGE SUITABILITYFOR 2050

AVERAGESUITABILITYCHANGE BY 2030

AVERAGESUITABILITYCHANGEBY 2050

Cabbage 91 73 57 -19 -35Carrot 88 66 53 -22 -35Cucumber 74 86 93 13 19Ginger 81 53 34 -27 -47Irish Potato 82 69 59 -13 -22Lettuce 92 76 64 -16 -28Average (N=14) 78 74 69 -4 -9

Average suitability change for selected crops by 2030 and 2050


Preliminary Results• Results Matrix for Vulnerability Assessment of Key Agricultural

Subsectors• Banana• Coffee• Livestock (Cattle)


EXPOSURE(Climate)

SENSITIVITY POTENTIAL IMPACT ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

KEY SUBSECTORS Traditional Exports Banana a. Increased

occurrence of hurricanes;

b. Increased incidence of droughts; Increasing mean temperatures

c. Greater variability in seasonal rainfall patterns

d. Sea Level Rise

Some of the largest banana plantations are located along the north-eastern coast which is susceptible to impact from hurricanes; high cost of inputs (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides); high food safety and environmental concerns and regulations; limited extension services; limited access to irrigation; insufficient research and innovation; unstable markets

a. Wind damage to banana trees; land slippage in hilly areas;

b. Decline in production (banana plants take longer to shoot/bear and produce smaller fruits); Increased plant stress and reduced plant health; Greater susceptibility to diseases

c. Decline in banana production

d. Saltwater contamination of low-lying coastal farmlands and salinization of freshwater supply

Existing local research and development capacity; existing institutional networks and partnerships; opportunities for expanding and enhancing extension services; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies

Coffee a. Increased occurrence of hurricanes;

b. Increased incidence of droughts; Increasing mean temperatures

c. Greater variability in seasonal rainfall patterns

Insecure land tenure patterns; high cost of inputs (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides); high food safety and environmental concerns and regulations; limited extension services; limited access to irrigation; availability of planting material; fragmented production; highly labour intensive; insufficient research and innovation; limited access to financial services and credit

a. Wind damage to coffee trees and berries; greater incidence of land slippage in hilly interior

b. Decline in coffee production; Increased plant stress and reduced plant health; Reduced soil moisture and overall soil quality; Greater susceptibility to pests and diseases; Reduced quality of coffee beans as temperatures increase; bush fires

c. Reduced quality in coffee beans due to plant stress and higher rates of soil erosion

Existing knowledge of genetic pool; research and development capacity; existing institutional networks and partnerships; opportunities for expanding and enhancing extension services; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies

EXPOSURE(Climate)


KEY SUBSECTORS Traditional Exports

Cattle (Meat/Dairy) a. Increased occurrence of hurricanes and storms;

b. Increased incidence of droughts and increasing temperatures

Competition from meat imports (especially ‘choice cuts’) and milk powder; Quality of breeding stock; High operating costs (especially for commercial feed and medication); unstable market prices; insufficient research and innovation; limited application of technology; shifting consumer demands away from red meat and dairy products; Larceny of livestock; growing food safety concerns and perceived negative health concerns (e.g. ‘mad cow’ disease); limited access to low-cost finance and credit

a. Loss of livestock and damage to farm infrastructure

b. The productivity of livestock, including milk yields, may decline because of higher temperatures and drought-related stress; longer periods of drought can lead to large scale losses of cattle and lower reproduction rates among livestock.

Existing knowledge of genetic pool; local research and development capacity (especially in cattle breeding); existing institutional networks and partnerships; Scope for PPPs; opportunities for the adoption of new and more efficient planting technologies

EXPOSURE(Climate)


KEY SUBSECTORS Livestock

Preliminary Recommendations• Mostly based on information garnered from desk review and

stakeholder consultations. Include inter alia:• Strengthening of climate information services, incl. enhancement of

technical capacities to better collect, monitor and forecast climate information• Investment in water resources development, conservation and

management• improved land husbandry and watershed management practices• continued promotion of applied and demand-driven research and

innovation e.g. enhancing research into climate-resilient crops and animals

• Variety of strategies already exist, need to replicate and scale-up where feasible• Must build on existing local and scientific knowledge


Next Steps• Phase Two

• Future Climate Risk Analyses• Second Round of Consultations• Cost Benefit Analysis


Towards Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Jamaica's Agricultural Sector:...

Environment

Transcript of Towards Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Jamaica's Agricultural Sector:...