Towards a new longitudinal data set for the analysis of migration and integration in Switzerland

Ilka Steiner, Institute of Demographic and Life Course Studies (IDEMO) University of GenevaIlka.Steiner@unige.ch

International Workshop on Methodological Challenges for the Study of Return and Circular MigrationTEMPER ProjectMadrid, 22-23 January 2015

Why a new longitudinal data set?

• Political/societal context: • The controversial public and political debate• The need for quality data• The diversification of migration patterns

• Statistical feasibility: The introduction of the Personal Identification Number • Legal context: A change of law allowing for record linkage• Scientific framework: NCCR “On the move” (www.nccr.onthemove.ch)

Content

• Why a new longitudinal data set

• Demographic Base• Demographic data• Conceptual framework• Measuring return, repeat and circular migration• Some limitations• Extensions

• How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?

Demographic baseDemographic data

Producer Target population Before 2010 After 2010

Migration Office (Statistical Office)

Foreigners (Swiss or foreign-born)

Central System of Migration (ZEMIS) Central Register of Foreign Nationals (ZAR)Automatic registration system of persons (AUPER)

Statistical Office Total resident population• Nationals and

non-nationals• Swiss or

foreign-born

Decennial Census (RFP) Population and Households Statistics (STATPOP)

Structural Survey (RS)

Demographic baseConceptual framework

1997-2013*

*without refugees and asylum seekers

Observations IDS

Stocks 73.1m 15.1m

Flows 15.9m 4.7m

Demographic baseMeasuring return, repeat and circular migration

STATPOP stock data: → country of residence 1-5 years ago→ validity of residence permit

Data set Migration specific variables (flow data)

ZEMIS<2010

type of flow: emigrationimmigrationnaturalization

arrival date (date of event)residence permitnationalitybirth statemotif of immigration/residence

mother’s origin

STATPOP>2010

country of departurecountry of destination

Demographic baseSome limitations • Discontinuity in the data in 2010

• Target population (Swiss, border-commuters, etc.)• Variables

• Registration process: • Self-declaration: delays or omissions• Absence of socio-economic variables for EU/EFTA-citizens (ZEMIS)• Decentralization of registrations: gaps, duplicates and wrong corrections

source movement Date permit nationality gendercivil

statusbirthday

flowsimmigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish M M 03.01.1979emigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish M M 03.01.1979immigration 06.11.2010 short-term Spanish W M 03.01.1979

stocks 31.12.2010 short-term Spanish W M 03.01.1979

Demographic baseExtensions: temporal and data-related

Demographic baseExtensions

• Temporal extensions: i.e. 2014, 2015, etc.• Data extensions:

• Structural survey, >2010, sample, permanent resident population• Swiss Labor Force Survey, >1998, sample, permanent resident population

• Structure of Earnings Survey, >2012, sample

• Student statistic, >2010• Unemployment statistics (SECO-based), >1998• Contributions and pensions (AI, AVS, etc.), >1998• Statistic of social benefits, >2003

Permanent resident populationSwiss-citizensForeign citizens • detaining a permit that is valid for at least twelve months• have resided legally in Switzerland for a cumulative length of at least twelve months

How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Definitions

Target population: Nationality: GermansAge: 18+Sample restriction: immigration between 2002 and 2007Duration of observation: 5 years from arrival

→ 208’289 individuals

How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Types of flows

Types of recurrent flows:

→ 23% of migrants immigrate more than once

Maximum within 5 yearsInternational migration: 22 immigrations / 22 emigrationsChange of canton: 13 departures / 13 arrivals Change of communes: 5 departures / 5 arrivalsLongest absence=84 days / Longest presence=16 days

Immigration -> 80424 38.61

Immigration -> Emigration 80716 38.75

Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration 15283 7.34

Immigration -> Emigration -> Immigration -> Emigration 13993 6.72

Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration>Emigration 9740 4.68

Immigration>2 / Emigration>2, Immigration=Emigration 8133 3.90

Total 208’289 100%

0. 00

0. 25

0. 50

0. 75

1. 00

dur at i on

0 1 2 3 4 5

Legend: Pr oduct - Li mi t Es t i mat e Cur ve Censor ed Obser vat i ons

Figure: Survival function for emigration, German residents, Switzerland

How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Duration of residence before emigration

Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007

Figure: Survival function for emigration by age, German residents, Switzerland

How temporary and recurrent are current migration patterns?Duration of residence before emigration

0. 00

0. 25

0. 50

0. 75

1. 00

dur at i on

0 1 2 3 4 5

STRATA: age3=1 Censor ed age3=1 age3=2 Censor ed age3=2age3=3 Censor ed age3=3 age3=4 Censor ed age3=4age3=5 Censor ed age3=5 age3=6 Censor ed age3=6

18-24

50-64 30-39

65+

25-29

40-49

Source: Demographic base, Emigration of Germans during a five-year observation period that immigrated between 2002 and 2007

How temporary recurrent are current migration patterns?Conclusions

• 39% of the cohort stayed in Switzerland during at least five years → need to be taken into account

• Mobility of young people→ Importance of considering different migrant categories

• More than half of all emigrations takes place within the first year of residence→ Importance of the permit (governmental control?)

Thank you

Ilka SteinerInstitute of Demographic and Life Course Studies, University of GenevaIlka.Steiner@unige.ch

The origin of the data baseLegal aspects

Federal Statistics Act (FSA)• 2013: The Federal Department of Home Affairs (FDHA) launched a partial revision

of the Federal Statistics Act (FSA) regarding data linkages (art 14a). • January 15th 2014: The new decree allows for the linkage of different data sources by

the SFSO staff as well as for the involvement of external researchers.

Art. 14.a.I: In order to fulfil its statistical duties, the Federal Office may link data, provided the data is rendered anonymous. In the event that data links involve data considered especially sensitive or that data links generate personal profiles, the linked data must be deleted on completion of the statistical analysis. The Federal Council regulates the details.

Source: SFSO – PETRA 1991-2010

German immigration and emigration flows, resident population, 1991-2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

ImmigrationsEmigrations

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000 Immigra-tionsEmigrations

German immigration and emigration flows, permanent resident population, 1991-2010

Demographic basePermanent vs. resident population