Interrelation between Technological, Social and Economic Trends

A study for DG Information Society and Media

Oxford Internet Institute : Dr Ian Brown, Malte Ziewitz SCF Associates: Simon Forge Individual Experts: Dr Lara Srivastava, Dr Colin Blackman, Dr Karmen Guevara, Dr Motohiro Tsuchiya, Dr Jonathan Cave

Interrelation between Technological, Social and Economic Trends

A study for DG Information Society and Media

Oxford Internet Institute : Dr Ian Brown, Malte Ziewitz SCF Associates: Simon Forge Individual Experts: Dr Lara Srivastava, Dr Colin Blackman, Dr Karmen Guevara, Dr Motohiro Tsuchiya, Dr Jonathan Cave

Towards a Future Internet

Key areas for development for Internet progress as a foundation of a global society: Key areas for development for Internet progress as a foundation of a global society:

• Non-traditional computers’ demands (especially mobile)• Linking sensor networks and device- to-device interchanges• Architectural advances from new principles• Information and knowledge structures• Operations and management• Functions, features and their protocol stacks

Where are we going?

Regulation

EconomicEconomic

PolicyPolicy

Operations&

Management

Operations&

Management

Governance

SocialSocialPsychological

& human interaction

Psychological& human interaction

TechnicalTechnical

The form of a future Internet is governed by four key forces

Major objective: to explore what a future Internet should be - by researching the possible social, psychological, technological and economic options for its development and their likely socio- economic impacts:

1. Explore the past - examine prior studies - analyse how the current Internet evolved to date, its main drivers and effects

2. Define possible future scenarios and assess likely socio-economic impacts - investigate the interrelations between technological, social, psychological and economic trends and developments related to a future Internet, verified using Delphi surveys

3. Produce visions for Europe of a Future Internet, in terms of each of the 4 forces

Major objective: to explore what a future Internet should be - by researching the possible social, psychological, technological and economic options for its development and their likely socio- economic impacts:

1. Explore the past - examine prior studies - analyse how the current Internet evolved to date, its main drivers and effects

2. Define possible future scenarios and assess likely socio-economic impacts - investigate the interrelations between technological, social, psychological and economic trends and developments related to a future Internet, verified using Delphi surveys

3. Produce visions for Europe of a Future Internet, in terms of each of the 4 forces

Goals of the study

WP1 WP1 Internet History and Evolution Internet History and Evolution

•Original architecture & design criteriaOriginal architecture & design criteria•Socio-economic trendsSocio-economic trends•Main historical driversMain historical drivers•RegulationRegulation•Causal links etcCausal links etc

WP1 WP1 Internet History and Evolution Internet History and Evolution

•Original architecture & design criteriaOriginal architecture & design criteria•Socio-economic trendsSocio-economic trends•Main historical driversMain historical drivers•RegulationRegulation•Causal links etcCausal links etc

WP2 WP2 Building Future Internet Scenarios Building Future Internet Scenarios Scenarios built with Delphi survey to explore:-Scenarios built with Delphi survey to explore:-

•Needs analysis for a future InternetNeeds analysis for a future Internet – the Main Driversthe Main Drivers •Future Social and Economic trendsFuture Social and Economic trends •Future psychological and interface needsFuture psychological and interface needs•Future Internet development directionsFuture Internet development directions

•Architectural and technical evolutionArchitectural and technical evolution•Services evolutionServices evolution•Disruptive developmentsDisruptive developments

•EconomicEconomic impactsimpacts•Regulation needs and their impactsRegulation needs and their impacts

WP2 WP2 Building Future Internet Scenarios Building Future Internet Scenarios Scenarios built with Delphi survey to explore:-Scenarios built with Delphi survey to explore:-

•Needs analysis for a future InternetNeeds analysis for a future Internet – the Main Driversthe Main Drivers •Future Social and Economic trendsFuture Social and Economic trends •Future psychological and interface needsFuture psychological and interface needs•Future Internet development directionsFuture Internet development directions

•Architectural and technical evolutionArchitectural and technical evolution•Services evolutionServices evolution•Disruptive developmentsDisruptive developments

•EconomicEconomic impactsimpacts•Regulation needs and their impactsRegulation needs and their impacts

WP3 WP3 Towards an EC Internet Policy Towards an EC Internet Policy

•Risks and rewardsRisks and rewards•Design for living - the socio-economic Design for living - the socio-economic dimensionsdimensions•Regulation and governanceRegulation and governance•Management and operationsManagement and operations

WP3 WP3 Towards an EC Internet Policy Towards an EC Internet Policy

•Risks and rewardsRisks and rewards•Design for living - the socio-economic Design for living - the socio-economic dimensionsdimensions•Regulation and governanceRegulation and governance•Management and operationsManagement and operations

The key work actions and packages

Delphi round 1 using•Web platform•Social networking

Build initialScenariosusing SCF

methodology

Test and improve scenarios

in Brussels workshop

Final Scenarios

Test & validate in USA and Japan, with workshops

Environmentalscanning

•Initial conditions•Trends•Drivers•Assumptions•Assertions•Hypotheses

3 or 4 visions for Europe

Delphi round 2using•Web platform•Social networking

Using a Delphi survey and scenario building workshops to build consensus for preferred visions for Europe